Item 9 PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS of The Draft CLRP Presentation to the Transportation Planning Board September 16, CLRP Performance Analysis 1
What is the Long-Range Transportation Plan (CLRP)? The CLRP identifies regionally significant transportation projects and programs that are planned between now and Over 500 Projects are included from simple highway landscaping projects to billion-dollar highway and transit projects (includes 7% more lane miles of roadway, and 14% more miles of transit rail) Full funding to keep the region s highway and transit systems in a state of good repair Programs that aim to make the transportation system in Metropolitan Washington better and more efficient Some specific projects in the CLRP include: Metro s Silver Line - Phase II (in VA) The Purple Line and the Corridor Cities Transitway (in MD) The H. St. / Benning Rd. Streetcar (in DC) Approx. 1,200 new lane-miles of roadway including Express Toll lanes on I-95 in VA For a complete listing of projects and programs in the CLRP, visit: http://www.mwcog.org/clrp/ 20 stand-alone improved major highway interchanges CLRP Performance Analysis 2
What is in the Amendment to the CLRP? Changes in the Amendment include: A package of 10 lane reduction projects for bicycle lanes in DC US 1 BRT from Huntington Metro to Woodbridge in VA Express Toll lanes and bus service on I-66 inside I-495 in VA Express Toll lanes and bus service on I-66 outside of I-495 to US 15 in VA *VDOT submitted 2 alternatives (Alternative A and B) for the I-66 HOT lanes projects outside of the beltway. The performance analysis only includes Alternative B. Removal of the DC Streetcar: Minnesota Ave. Spur in DC Removal of the Columbia Pike Streetcar project in VA Removal of the Crystal City Streetcar project in VA Key Technical Inputs to the CLRP Performance Analysis: Round 8.4 Cooperative Forecasts Regionally Significant Transportation Projects Version 2.3.57 of the Travel Demand Model 2014 Vehicle Registration Data (VIN) EPA s MOVES2014 Mobile Emissions Model (With Tier 3 and updated CAFE) CLRP Performance Analysis 3
Performance Analysis Topics Population and Job Growth Mode Choice and Travel Demand Roadway Congestion Transit Congestion (Metrorail) Job Accessibility Air Quality and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Regional Transportation Priorities Assessment CLRP Performance Analysis 4
Population and Job Growth in Activity Centers Population 1,289,000 New People Jobs 1,156,000 New Jobs Outside of ACs 41% 59% Inside of ACs Outside of ACs 24% 76% Inside of ACs 5000 14% 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 50% 41% 25% 4000 3000 2000 1000 *Population and job estimates come from the COG Round 8.4 Cooperative Forecast Population (in 1000s) Inside Centers Outside of Centers Inside Centers Outside of Centers Jobs (in 1000s) The majority of new jobs and population are forecast to be in Regional Activity Centers. Though the majority of the regional population will remain outside of Activity Centers in, population is forecast to increase at a faster rate inside Activity Centers over the next 25 years. The majority of jobs today are located in Activity Centers, and this trend will continue in the future. CLRP Performance Analysis 7
Performance Analysis Summary Population Employment Lane Miles of Roadway All Trips Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) VMT per capita Congested Lane Miles (AM Peak) +7% Transit Rail Miles +14% (Metro, MARC/VRE, Light Rail) -2% +24% +23% +22% +36% Transit Trips +34% Bicycle and Walk Trips +49% +72% VMT on Congested Roads (AM Peak) +70% The region is forecast to be home to 24% more residents and 36% more jobs in. To accommodate growth, 7% more lane miles of roadway and 14% more transit rail miles are planned to be constructed. The total number of trips taken is expected to increase by 23%, while transit, walk, and bike trips together are expected to increase at a faster rate than single driver trips. The overall amount of driving (VMT) is expected to grow by 22%. This is slightly less than forecast population growth, which means that VMT per capita is expected to drop by 2%. The increase in demand on the roadways is forecast to out-pace the increase in supply, leading to a significant increase in congestion. CLRP Performance Analysis 8
Mode Choice: Growth in Trips by Mode (-) Growth in carpooling, transit, walking, and bicycling is expected to out pace growth in single occupancy driver trips, for all trips and work trips alike. ALL TRIPS (trips in 1000s) WORK TRIPS (trips in 1000s) 7,134 Single Driver 15% 8,169 All Other Modes 12,875 9,913 30% 2,159 Single Driver 18% 2,547 All Other Modes 1,901 1,365 39% New Trips - All Purposes 946,000 +49% From more trips 396,000 more trips 1,620,000 more trips 1,035,000 more trips (-) Walk + Bicycle Transit HOV + Carpool Single Driver +34% From +24% From +15% From New Trips - Work 104,000 +72% From more trips 274,000 more trips 159,000 more trips 389,000 more trips Walk + Bicycle Transit HOV + Carpool Single Driver +33% From +40% From +18% From CLRP Performance Analysis 9
Mode Choice: Share of Trips by Mode (-) Despite faster growth in carpooling, transit, walking, and bicycling trips, the relative shares of all trips that each mode makes up aren t expected to change much by. 40% ALL TRIPS 7% WORK TRIPS 11% 23% For all trips, the share of single driver trips is expected to decline in favor of walking and bicycling trips. 17,000,000 Trips/Day 11% 3,500,000 Trips/Day 4% For work trips, the share of single driver trips is expected to decline in favor of increases in the share of carpooling, transit, walking, and bicycling trips. 40% 42% 7% 12% 61% 25% Work trips account for 22% of all trips taken but 40% of all vehicle miles traveled, and this trend is expected to continue through. 21,000,000 Trips/Day 39% 14% 4,400,000 Trips/Day 57% 6% Single Driver HOV + Carpool Bus + Rail Transit Walk + Bicycle CLRP Performance Analysis 10
Mode Choice: Transit Metrorail Constraint (-) Constrained Transit Trips Unconstrained Transit Trips 1,099 1,134 +35,000 Additional Trips trips in 1000 s 5000 1000 In the travel demand model used to analyze future trends under the CLRP, Metrorail trips through the core of the region were capped to 2020 levels. Therefore, in approximately 125,000 trips that would have been expected on Metrorail have been reassigned to buses and automobiles. If the transit Metrorail constraint is removed, 35,000 of the automobile trips could be taken on Metrorail, which would increase transit mode share by 0.8%. CLRP Performance Analysis 11
Mode Choice: Geographic Differences Work Trips By Regional Core, Inner Suburbs, and Outer Suburbs (-) 5% 14% Regional Core 24% 56% Total: 617 Total: 795 Single Driver HOV + Carpool Bus + Rail Transit Walk + Bicycle 23% 5% 54% 18% 3% Inner Suburbs 64% 11% 23% Total: 1,755 61% 11% 24% 4% Total: 2,140 Outer Suburbs trips in 1000 s 6% 79% 14% 73% 1% Total: 694 17% 8% Total: 972 2% 5000 1000 1500 2000 Regional Core: District of Columbia Arlington Co. Alexandria Inner Suburbs: Montgomery Co. Prince George s Co. Fairfax Co. Falls Church Fairfax City Outer Suburbs: Charles Co. Frederick Co. Loudoun Co. Prince William Co. Manassas Manassas Park Fauquier Co. (Urbanized Area) Throughout all areas of the region, the share of single occupancy vehicle commute trips is expected to decline between now and. For commuters living in the Regional Core, walking and biking are forecast to become more popular. The greatest number of trips will continue to be made by those living in the region s populous Inner Suburbs. In the Outer Suburbs, carpool and transit trips will increase due to the presence of new facilities and services. CLRP Performance Analysis 12
Mode Choice: Geographic Differences All Trips By Regional Core, Inner Suburbs, and Outer Suburbs (-) Regional Core 30% 26% 18% 26% 25% 25% 18% 32% Total: 2,980 Total: 3,693 Single Driver HOV + Carpool Bus + Rail Transit Walk + Bicycle Inner Suburbs 42% 42% 6% 10% Total: 9,272 39% 42% 7% 12% Total: 10,999 Outer Suburbs trips in 1000 s 49% 46% 1% 43% 7% Total: 3,756 45% 2% 8% Total: 5,111 2000 4000 6000 8000 10,000 12,000 Regional Core: District of Columbia Arlington Co. Alexandria Inner Suburbs: Montgomery Co. Prince George s Co. Fairfax Co. Falls Church Fairfax City Outer Suburbs: Charles Co. Frederick Co. Loudoun Co. Prince william Co. Manassas Manassas Park Fauquier Co. (Urbanized Area) The majority of all trips in the region will continue to be generated in the region s populous Inner Suburbs. Throughout all areas of the region, the share of single occupancy vehicle commute trips is expected to decline and the share of walking and bicycling trips is expected to increase. Compared to work trips, the share of carpool trips will continue to be substantially higher in all areas. While the percentage of daily transit trips is forecast to double by, this mode will still account for the smallest number of trips in the outer suburbs. CLRP Performance Analysis 13
Travel Demand: Vehicle Miles Travelled (-) +24% Population +22% Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) VMT Per Capita -2% The average amount of driving per person will be less in than it is today. The total amount of driving in the region, measured in vehicle-miles travel (VMT), is expected to grow over the next 25 years, but at a slightly lower rate than population. This means that the average amount of driving per person will be less in than it is today, which is consistent with the TPB Vision. Though the drop in VMT per capita is slight, it is noteworthy because it signals the reversal of a decades-long trend of ever-increasing percapita driving in this region. CLRP Performance Analysis 14
Roadway Congestion Congestion will continue to be concentrated in a few key segments of our region s roadways, but impact a greater share of travelers and trips. Congested Lane Miles in The Region AM Peak 1,728 72% 2,966 VMT on Congested Roadways AM Peak 2,119 70% 3,748 * Lane mile measure includes all facilities except local roads. * Roads are congested if Volume/Capacity>1.00 (VMT in 1,000s) Share of Lane Miles Congested (AM Peak) 10% 16% Share of VMT on Congested Roadways (AM Peak) 24% 33% 17,000 Total Lane mi 18,000 Total Lane mi 9.3 Million VMT 11.4 Million VMT Although the number of lane-miles of roadway in the region that are congested during peak periods is expected to increase substantially between now and, congested lanes make up a small portion of the roadways in the region. Congestion on this small portion of roadways will affect a greater share of vehicle-miles traveled (VMT) as more and more trips are added to these highly traveled routes. CLRP Performance Analysis 15
Roadway Congestion: Geographic Differences Share of AM Peak Hour Lane Miles that Are Congested Regional Core Inner Suburbs Outer Suburbs Lanes Miles 15% of lane miles congested 21% 5% 12% 2,267 2,300 2,300 12% 18% 5,700 6,100 2000 4000 6000 8000 9,000 9,700 10000 Regional Core: District of Columbia Arlington Co. Alexandria Inner Suburbs: Montgomery Co. Prince George s Co. Fairfax Co. Falls Church Fairfax City * Lane mile measure includes all facilities except local roads in both directions. * Roads are congested if Volume/Capacity>1.00 Outer Suburbs: Charles Co. Frederick Co. Loudoun Co. Prince William Co. Manassas Manassas Park Fauquier Co. (Urbanized Area) Congested lane miles will make up a relatively small proportion of the total lane miles in all areas of the region both today and in. The total number of congested lane miles is forecast to go up in all 3 sub-areas with the greatest expected increase in the inner suburbs. The share of lane miles that are congested is also expected to increase in all sub-areas, but the highest rate of increase is expected in the outer suburbs. CLRP Performance Analysis 16
Roadway Congestion: Geographic Differences Share of AM Peak Hour Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) on Congested Roadways Regional Core Inner Suburbs Outer Suburbs 29% of vehicle miles travelled that are congested 1,128 1,269 37% 26% 34% 16% 29% 2,486 3,331 5,724 6,700 * AM peak period VMT converted to AM peak hour * Roads are congested if Volume/Capacity>1.00 Regional Core: District of Columbia Arlington Co. Alexandria Inner Suburbs: Montgomery Co. Prince George s Co. Fairfax Co. Falls Church Fairfax City Outer Suburbs: Charles Co. Frederick Co. Loudoun Co. Prince William Co. Manassas Manassas Park Fauquier Co. (Urbanized Area) Vehicle Miles Travelled (VMT) in 1000s 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Though a relatively small share of lane miles will continue to be congested, a higher share of Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) will be on congested roadways in all areas of the region. In, VMT on congested roadways will increase the most in the outer suburbs, followed by the regional core, and the least in the inner suburbs. CLRP Performance Analysis 17
Roadway Congestion: Major Highway Congestion (AM Peak) Though congestion on many segments of the region s major highway system is expected to get worse over this period of time, some segments of highway will see slight relief in congestion thanks to capacity expansions or changes in travel behavior. Major highways seeing improvements in congestion include portions of I-66 East, I-70 East, and VA-267 East. Increased Congestion I-70 East toward Frederick Congestion Levels Frederick No Congestion Congested Flow Reduced Congestion I-70 East at I-270 MARYLAND Stop and Go Conditions 70 Increased Congestion I-495 Inner and outer loops b/n the American Legion bridge and I-270 270 Montgomery 370 Loudoun 200 95 VIRGINIA 295 495 Increased Congestion VA-267 East DC Fairfax Reduced Congestion VA-267 East 66 66 Arlington 95 695 495 395 295 Prince George s Increased Congestion I-66 East in Prince William Increased Congestion DC-295 South Beltway to I-395 95 Prince William Charles Increased Congestion I-95 North Prince William Increased Congestion I-495/I-95 South (inner loop) at the Wilson Bridge CLRP Performance Analysis 18
Transit Congestion: Metrorail Crowding (2012-) Without additional capacity, four out of five Metrorail lines passing through the region s core will be congested or highly congested by. Line Red Blue Orange/ Silver Yellow Green with 50% 8-car* with 100% 8-car Acceptable (<100 people per car) Crowded (100-120 people per car) Extremely Crowded (>120 people per car) *The CLRP assumes 50% 8-car trains in Analysis completed by WMATA shows that four out of five lines entering the downtown core are expected to become congested or highly congested by. Without additional capacity, WMATA estimates that the Metrorail system will reach capacity by on trips to and through the core. CLRP Performance Analysis 19
Access to Jobs: Average Number of Jobs Accessible (-) The average number of jobs accessible within 45 minutes by automobile and transit is expected to increase between now and. Average Number of Jobs Average number of Frederick Accessible by Automobile Jobs Accessible MARYLAND Average number of (In 1000 s) Jobs Accessible (In 1000 s) : MARYLAND (in 1000s) : 40 Average Number of Jobs Accessible by Transit 939 918 (in 1000s) : 70 543 398 2% 36% 340 15 270 ntgomery ounty : 270 VIRGINIA Though the average number of trips accessible by both automobile and transit is expected to Montgomery increase, the average number of jobs accessible by transit will increase more significantly. The total number of jobs that are accessible by transit, however, will remain less than those 370 accessible by automobile, because transit will continue to not reach all parts of the region. Loudoun 95 370 29 1 95 29 495 15 DC 29 50 50 495 DC 1 CLRP Performance Analysis 20
Access to Jobs: Frederick Change in Access to Jobs by Automobile (-) Average number of Jobs Accessible MARYLAND 40 (in 1000s) : 939 2% 340 15 Significant declines in job accessibility by automobile are expected on the eastern side of the region. 270 VIRGINIA Montgomery Loudoun 370 95 Many areas, mainly on the eastern side of the region, will see declines in accessibility. These declines are the result of two important factors: one, anticipated increases in roadway congestion, which make it more difficult to reach other parts of the region by car within 45 minutes, and, two, the fact that more of the new jobs anticipated between now and are forecast to be located on the western side of the region, more than 45 minutes from those living on the eastern side. : 918 70 29 15 495 1 DC 50 50 29 50 66 Arlington 66 95 695 301 495 395 29 Fairfax 295 1 Prince George s 95 Prince William Charles Change in # of Jobs within 45 Minutes Significant Loss <-300,000 301 Moderate Loss -300,000 to -100,000 Minimal Impact -100,000 to 100,000 Moderate Gain 100,000 to 300,000 Significant Gain > 300,000 0 5 10 20 Miles N CLRP Performance Analysis 21
Access to Jobs: Frederick Change in Access to Jobs by Transit (-) Average number of Jobs Accessible MARYLAND 40 (in 1000s) : 70 : 543 398 36% 340 15 Most places with access to transit, will experience increases in the number of jobs that are accessible within a 45 minute commute. 270 VIRGINIA Montgomery Loudoun However, in transit will still not be a viable commute options for many people in the region due to lack of access to transit facilities and potentially long travel times. 370 95 29 15 495 1 DC 50 50 29 50 66 Arlington 66 95 695 301 495 395 29 Fairfax 295 1 Prince George s 95 Prince William Charles Change in # of Jobs within 45 Minutes Significant Loss <-300,000 301 Moderate Loss -300,000 to -100,000 Minimal Impact -100,000 to 100,000 Moderate Gain 100,000 to 300,000 Significant Gain > 300,000 0 5 10 20 Miles N CLRP Performance Analysis 22
Air Quality: Mobile Source Emissions (-) Ozone Season Precursor Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) 160 120 80 2009 Attainment Budget: 146.1 Tons/Day 128.3 91.1 2010 Contingency Budget: 144.3 Tons/Day Emissions of all criteria pollutants are expected to drop steadily between now and. 40 Tons/Day 2017 70 62.4 60 2025 Alt A: 42.0 Alt B: 42.1 2030 Alt A: 28.4 Alt B: 28.4 Alt A: 20.3 Alt B: 20.4 Ozone Season Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) 2009 Attainment Budget: 66.5 Tons/Day Emissions reductions are expected due to tougher federal fuel and vehicle efficiency standards. Changes in development patterns, investments in transit and other travel options, and improved operational efficiency of area roadways will also contribute to reductions in vehicle related emissions. 50 50.7 40 Alt A: 35.5 Alt B: 35.5 30 20 Alt A: 25.2 Alt B: 25.2 Alt A: 19.1 Alt B: 19.1 10 Tons/Day 2017 2025 2030 CLRP Performance Analysis 23
Air Quality: Mobile Source Emissions (-) Annual Particulate Matter Direct (PM2.5) Annual Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Precursor Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) 2,500 Tier 1 Mobile Budgets 50,000 46,064 Tier 1 Mobile Budgets 2,000 1,860 1,787 Tons/Year 40,000 41,709 Tons/Year 1,500 1,523 1,350 Tons/Year 30,000 32,790 27,400 Tons/Year 1,000 500 Alt A: 926 Alt B: 926 Alt A: 811 Alt B: 811 Alt A: 720 Alt B: 720 20,000 10,000 Alt A: 15,421 Alt B: 15,434 Alt A: 10,756 Alt B: 10,762 Alt A: 8,103 Alt B: 8,111 Tons/Year 2017 2025 2030 Tons/Year 2017 2025 2030 Wintertime Carbon Monoxide (CO) 1,800 1,600 Wintertime CO Emissions Budget: 1,671.5 Tons/Day 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 381 321 Alt A: 223 Alt B: 223 Alt A: 164 Alt B: 164 Alt A: 122 Alt B: 122 Tons/Day 2017 2025 2030 CLRP Performance Analysis 24
Mobile Source Greenhouse Gas Emissions: (2005-) 30 Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (CO2e) Emissions 12 25 20 22.6 22.6 22.5 21.3 19.7 18.4 17.7 10 8 Total CO 2 e Emissions 15 10 4.7 4.4 4.1 3.7 3.3 2.9 2.7 6 4 CO 2 e Emission Per Capita 5 2 CO2e in 1,000,000s (Metric Tons/ Year) CO2e Per Capita (Metric Tons/Year) 2005 2012 *2020 2025 2030 * Year 2020 figures developed though interpolation between 2017 and 2025 Total CO 2 e emissions under the CLRP are forecast to drop by 22% by, while CO 2 e emissions per capita are expected to drop at an even greater rate of 44%. A significant amount of the greenhouse gas reductions are due to new tougher federal fuel efficiency standards. In addition changes in development patterns and investments in transit and other travel options will contribute to reductions. Currently no federal standards exist for greenhouse gas emissions. These emissions are not a required part of the transportation Air Quality Conformity Analysis. CLRP Performance Analysis 25
Regional Transportation Priorities Assessment: The Regional Transportation Priorities Plan, adopted by the TPB in January 2014, identifies strategies with the greatest potential to advance regional goals rooted in the TPB Vision. The TPB has committed to using the Priorities Plan on a regular basis to assess the CLRP. Priority 1: Meet Our Existing Obligations The region s commitment to maintenance is solid: The CLRP demonstrates full funding for maintenance, operations, and state of good repair of the region s highway and transit systems. Priority 2: Strengthen Public Confidence and Ensure Fairness Regional economic disparities continue to affect transportation patterns: The TPB is seeking to improve public information and analysis. CLRP Performance Analysis 26
Regional Transportation Priorities Assessment: Priority 3: Move More People and Goods More Efficiently Individuals, on average, are expected to drive less in the future than they do today. The region has unfinished business when it comes to maximizing use of existing transit systems. The region is effectively using its Activity Centers to focus growth, enhance non-motorized circulation, and improve regional connections -- DC bike lane projects The region is diversifying its public transit systems by developing new, cost-efficient options like BRT and streetcars. -- New BRT Projects in VA New tolling projects are managing demand while raising revenue. -- I-66 Projects Projects target bottleneck relief. CLRP Performance Analysis 27
Key Findings: By, the region is expected to be home to 1.3 million more people and 1.1 million more jobs. Most new people and jobs are forecast to locate in Regional Activity Centers, and concentrate toward the west side of the region. Growth in carpooling, transit, walking, and bicycling is expected to out pace growth in trips by single drivers between now and, both for work and nonwork trips. Single driver trips will be the predominant mode of travel for work trips, but the average amount of driving per person will be less in than it is today. Congestion will continue to be concentrated in a few key segments of our region s roadways, but impact a greater share of travelers and trips. Without additional capacity, four out of five Metrorail lines passing through the region s core will be congested or highly congested by. CLRP Performance Analysis 28
Key Findings: The average number of jobs accessible within 45 minutes is expected to increase between now and for both automobile and transit commuters, but significant declines in job accessibility by automobile are expected on the eastern side of the region. Emissions of all criteria pollutants are expected to drop steadily between now and. Total CO2 emissions are forecast to drop by, and CO2 emissions per capita are expected to drop at an even greater rate. Assessing the CLRP with the Regional Transportation Priorities Plan demonstrates that: -- The region s commitment to maintenance is solid -- Regional Disparities will continue to affect transportation patterns - - Regional Agencies are planning projects that will provide new ways to move people and goods more efficiently, but there is still work to be done to maximize use of the existing transit system. CLRP Performance Analysis 29