BROADBAND CONNECTIVITY IN SOUTH EAST ASIA ICT and Development Section ICT and Disaster Risk Reduction Division Asia-Pacific Information Superhighway Steering Group Meeting & 7 th Meeting of the Working Group on the Asian Highway Network Bangkok, 12-13 December 2017
2 Outline: 1. South East Asia a) Trends in broadband connectivity b) Ongoing studies and way forward 2. South and South-West Asia a) Trends in broadband connectivity b) Key Issues for policymakers 3. North and Central Asia & East & North- East Asia a) Trends in broadband connectivity b) Main findings from ESCAP studies in the subregions
3 Trends in Fixed-Broadband connectivity Fixed-broadband sub. per 100 inhabitants 40 30 20 10 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year Africa ESCAP North America ESCAP excl. ASEAN ASEAN Europe Latin America & Caribbean Source: Produced by ESCAP, based on data sourced from ITU World Telecommunications/ICT Indicators Database (2017).
Fixed Broadband Penetration Rates (per 100) 4 Korea (Rep.) Hong Kong, China New Zealand Japan Macao, China Australia Singapore New Caledonia Azerbaijan Russian Federation China French Polynesia Georgia Kazakhstan Turkey Iran (I.R.) Tuvalu Armenia Thailand Malaysia Viet Nam Brunei Darussalam Mongolia Maldives Palau Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Bhutan Philippines Micronesia Sri Lanka Bangladesh Tonga Marshall Islands Vanuatu Fiji India Samoa Indonesia Nepal Pakistan Cambodia Lao P.D.R. Myanmar Solomon Islands Papua New Guinea Kiribati Timor-Leste Tajikistan Turkmenistan Afghanistan 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Data source: ITU. (2016). World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators database. Available from: http://www.itu.int/en/itu-d/statistics/pages/publications/wtid.aspx
5 Trends in Mobile- Broadband connectivity Mobile-broadband sub. per 100 inhabitants 150 100 50 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year Africa ESCAP North America ESCAP excl. ASEAN ASEAN Europe Latin America & Caribbean Source: Produced by ESCAP, based on data sourced from ITU World Telecommunications/ICT Indicators Database (2017).
Mobile Broadband Penetration Rates (per 100) 6 Macao, China Singapore Japan New Zealand Australia Korea (Rep.) Hong Kong, China Malaysia Mongolia Thailand Russian Federation Maldives Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Bhutan China Turkey Georgia Fiji Cambodia Indonesia Philippines Vanuatu Armenia Viet Nam Timor-Leste Kyrgyzstan Myanmar Tonga Uzbekistan French Polynesia Nepal Iran (I.R.) Sri Lanka Lao P.D.R. Bangladesh Pakistan Tajikistan Solomon Islands Turkmenistan Samoa India Papua New Guinea Afghanistan Brunei Darussalam Kiribati 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Data source: ITU. (2016). World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators database. Available from: http://www.itu.int/en/itu-d/statistics/pages/publications/wtid.aspx
7 Broadband Affordability Fixed Broadband Mobile Broadband Singapore Singapore Brunei Darussalam Brunei Darussalam Malaysia Malaysia Thailand Cambodia Philippines Thailand Indonesia Indonesia Lao P.D.R. Philippines Cambodia Myanmar Myanmar Lao P.D.R. 0 5 10 15 20 Price as % of GNI p.c. 0 1 2 3 4 5 Price as % of GNI p.c. Source : Produced by ESCAP, based on data sourced from ITU Measuring the Information Society Report
Online services versus telecommunications infrastructure in South- East Asia and developing countries in 2008 and 2014 8 Source: Produced by ESCAP, based on data sourced from the United Nations Public Administration Country Studies/E-Government Development Index Database (accessed April 2016).
9 Projected bandwidth demand Projected annual growth 2016-2020 Projected Total growth 2016-2020 Share of corporate data in international bandwidth demand 2016 Share of corporate data in international bandwidth demand 2020 Share of Internet in international bandwidth demand 2016 Share of Internet in international bandwidth demand 2020 Cambodia +48.4% +385.6% 12.2% 11.9% 86.7% 87.8% Indonesia +43.6% +325.6% 11.1% 11.2% 88.1% 88.5% Lao P.D.R +57.3% +508.3% 13.9% 15.5% 83.3% 84.0% Malaysia +45.6% +349.2% 22.9% 23.0% 76.3% 76.7% Myanmar +53.7% +457.7% 11.8% 9.3% 88.2% 90.7% Philippines +42.7% +314.2% 11.7% 11.7% 88.1% 88.2% Singapore +34.6% +227.6% 9.6% 9.6% 90.1% 90.2% Thailand +39.2% +275.7% 9.1% 13.0% 90.1% 87.0% Viet Nam +44.7% +338.1% 8.6% 8.0% 91.4% 92.0% Region +40.2% +286.2% 11.7% 12.6% 87.9% 87.3% Source: ESCAP, Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in Asia Pacific, 2016.
Forecasted international bandwidth in South East Asia 2015-2026 500,000 10 241 400,000 62796 Gbps 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 49 1439 10866 57 2052 15362 67 2974 21820 76 4289 30951 88 6037 42674 102 8492 58884 116 11787 81371 134 16234 111341 155 22108 152167 179 32833 208377 207 45372 285936 393135 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Internet Voice Corporate data Source: ESCAP, Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in Asia Pacific, 2016.
11 Good submarine cable connectivity, but need more Asia Africa Europe-1 (AAE-1) : connect Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Asia(Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, Singapore and Viet Nam) Southeast Asia-US (SEA-US) : Manado (Indonesia), Davao (Southern Philippines), Piti (Guam), Honolulu and California (USA) Asia-Pacific Gateway (APG) : Malaysia, Singapore, Viet Nam, Hong Kong (China), Taiwan (China), Mainland China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea Some trans border terrestrial links are still weak or insufficient : eg. Lao PDR and the Yunnan Province of China; and Viet Nam and the Yunnan Province Insufficient Internet Exchange Point (IXP) and direct exchange of traffic, causing unnecessary routing of traffic through international transit, incurring costs as well as increasing latency and reducing speed
12 On going studies ESCAP was invited to ASEAN Telecommunications Senior Officials Meeting (TELSOM) in November 2016 - discussed the AP-IS pre-feasibility study findings on the ASEAN subregion and the way forward - Southern corridor to focus on digital economy and application level. - Northern corridor of CLMV countries to focus on connectivity Update to the pre-feasibility study: ongoing Research on co-deployment of optical-fibre cables along with the other infrastructure (especially Asian Highway) - to promote cross-sectoral synergies, reducing time and costs in developing broadband infrastructure ESCAP was invited to ASEAN Telecommunications Senior Officials Meeting (TELSOM) in November 2017, Cambodia.
BROADBAND CONNECTIVITY IN SOUTH & SOUTH-WEST ASIA ICT and Development Section ICT and Disaster Risk Reduction Division Asia-Pacific Information Superhighway Steering Group Meeting & 7 th Meeting of the Working Group on the Asian Highway Network Bangkok, 12-13 December 2017
14 Outline: 1. Trends in broadband connectivity 2. Key Issues for policymakers
Trends in fixed broadband connectivity Fixed-broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants by region, 2000-2016 (regional averages weighted by population) 15 Fixed-broadband sub. per 100 inhabitants 40 30 20 10 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year Africa ESCAP North America ESCAP excl. South Asia SSWA Europe Latin America & Caribbean Source: Produced by ESCAP, based on data sourced from ITU World Telecommunications/ICT Indicators Database (2017).
Trends in mobile broadband connectivity Mobile-broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants average by region, weighted by population Mobile-broadband sub. per 100 inhabitants 150 100 50 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year 16 Africa ESCAP North America ESCAP excl. South Asia SSWA Europe Latin America & Caribbean Source: Produced by ESCAP, based on data sourced from ITU World Telecommunications/ICT Indicators Database (2017).
Trends in broadband connectivity by counry Fixed-broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants (South & South-West Asia) Mobile broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants (South & South-West Asia) 17 Turkey 13.6 Maldives 72.7 Iran (I.R.) 11.6 Turkey 66.8 Maldives 7.2 Bhutan 47.9 Sri Lanka 4.1 Iran (I.R.) 33.8 Bhutan 3.9 Nepal 30.8 Bangladesh 3.8 Pakistan 20.1 India 1.4 Sri Lanka 18.3 Pakistan 0.9 Bangladesh 17.8 Nepal 0.8 India 16.8 Afghanistan 0.0 Afghanistan 14.3 0 5 10 15 Fixed-broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants 0 20 40 60 80 Mobile-broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants Source: Produced by ESCAP, based on data sourced from ITU World Telecommunications/ICT Indicators Database (2017).
Fixed broadband development and natural disasters 18 Fixed-broadband sub. per 100 inhabitants Disaster exposure and Fixed-broadband adoption in 2016 0 10 20 30 40 50 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 Disaster exposure index (World Risk Report) World South & South-West Asia Fitted values Fixed-broadband sub. per 100 inhabitants 0 5 10 15 Turkey Iran (I.R.) Bhutan Bangladesh Sri Lanka Nepal India Pakistan Afghanistan 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 Disaster exposure index (World Risk Report) Sources: ESCAP based on ITU (2017) WTID and UNU-EHS (2015) World Risk Report, definition of disaster exposure index as well as methodology are found at http://www.uni-stuttgart.de/ireus/internationales/worldriskindex/
Mobile broadband development and natural disasters 19 Mobile broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants Disaster exposure and Mobile-broadband access in 2016. 300 200 100 0 N I r epa a (In l Ṛ. ) 0.0000 0.2000 0.4000 0.6000 Disaster Exposure Index (World Bank) Mobile broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants 80 60 40 20 0 T u r k e y Bh u t a n Pa k ti an s Ind ai A gh f a st n ai n S r i anl ka 0.1000 0.1500 0.2000 0.2500 0.3000 Disaster Exposure Index (World Bank) Sources: ESCAP based on ITU (2017) WTID and UNU-EHS (2015) World Risk Report, definition of disaster exposure index as well as methodology are found at http://www.unistuttgart.de/ireus/internationales/worldriskindex / B a n g l a d e s h
Expected demand for bandwidth requirements 20 Gbps 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 South & South-West Asia : Forecasted international bandwidth, 2015-2026 175 11329 208 15651 243 21656 148018 284 30002 216426 Demand for International bandwidth forecasted to increase significantly for SSWA countries. 50,000 0 3264 599 46 4718 843 55 1268 65 1835 77 6882 10079 2683 91 14841 3939 106 21771 5661 126 32023 149 7822 46946 68876 101049 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Internet Voice Corporate data Source: ESCAP based on Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in Asia Pacific, by Michael Ruddy (2016), http://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/updated%20analysis%20of%20broadband%20infrastructure%20in%20ap.pdf
Expected demand for bandwidth requirements by country Gbps 150000 100000 50000 By Country: Forecasted international bandwidth 2015-2026 21 Top four countries for high demand on int. bandwidth: India, Pakistan, Iran (IR), and Bangladesh. 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 year India Pakistan Iran (Islamic Rep. of) Bangladesh Afghanistan Bhutan Nepal Sri Lanka Note: Maldives and Turkey not included due to missing data. Source: ESCAP based on Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in Asia Pacific, by Michael Ruddy (2016), http://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/updated%20analysi s%20of%20broadband%20infrastructure%20in%20ap.pdf
22 2. Key Issues for policymakers Digital divide (fixed-broadband and mobile broadband) is widening in SSWA. However, there have been good progress in some countries Resilience of ICT infrastructure to natural disasters is important in the subregion. Further concerted efforts would be needed for inclusive broadband for all.
BROADBAND CONNECTIVITY IN NORTH AND CENTRAL ASIA & EAST AND NORTH-EAST ASIA ICT and Development Section ICT and Disaster Risk Reduction Division Asia-Pacific Information Superhighway Steering Group Meeting & 7 th Meeting of the Working Group on the Asian Highway Network Bangkok, 12-13 December 2017
24 Outline: 1. Trends in broadband connectivity 2. Main findings from ESCAP studies in the subregions
25 Trends in Fixed-Broadband connectivity Fixed-broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants 30 20 10 0 6.1 4.9 3.8 2.6 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.9 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.1 2.7 7.2 3.4 8.4 4.1 10.0 11.5 4.9 5.7 13.5 6.7 14.6 15.5 16.2 7.3 7.8 8.3 21.0 23.8 10.3 11.5 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Year East & North-East Asia Pacific Developing Countries South-East Asia South & South-West Asia ESCAP Pacific North & Central Asia Source: Produced by ESCAP, based on data sourced from ITU World Telecommunications/ICT Indicators Database (2017).
Fixed Broadband Penetration Rates (per 100) 26 Korea (Rep.) Hong Kong, China New Zealand Japan Macao, China Australia Singapore New Caledonia Azerbaijan Russian Federation China French Polynesia Georgia Kazakhstan Turkey Iran (I.R.) Tuvalu Armenia Thailand Malaysia Viet Nam Brunei Darussalam Mongolia Maldives Palau Kyrgyzstan Uzbekistan Bhutan Philippines Micronesia Sri Lanka Bangladesh Tonga Marshall Islands Vanuatu Fiji India Samoa Indonesia Nepal Pakistan Cambodia Lao P.D.R. Myanmar Solomon Islands Papua New Guinea Kiribati Timor-Leste Tajikistan Turkmenistan Afghanistan 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Data source: ITU. (2016). World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators database. Available from: http://www.itu.int/en/itu-d/statistics/pages/publications/wtid.aspx
27 Trends in Mobile- Broadband connectivity Active mobile-broadband subscriptions per 100 inhabitants (Average) 150 100 50 0 0.0 0.1 2.3 0.9 10.1 4.1 13.4 8.4 20.0 12.4 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year East & North-East Asia Pacific Developing Countries South-East Asia South & South-West Asia 27.4 16.3 31.7 20.6 ESCAP Pacific 50.1 31.0 62.6 39.5 North & Central Asia 72.7 48.7 Source: Produced by ESCAP, based on data sourced from ITU World Telecommunications/ICT Indicators Database (2017).
Mobile Broadband Penetration Rates (per 100) 28 Macao, China Singapore Japan New Zealand Australia Korea (Rep.) Hong Kong, China Malaysia Mongolia Thailand Russian Federation Maldives Azerbaijan Kazakhstan Bhutan China Turkey Georgia Fiji Cambodia Indonesia Philippines Vanuatu Armenia Viet Nam Timor-Leste Kyrgyzstan Myanmar Tonga Uzbekistan French Polynesia Nepal Iran (I.R.) Sri Lanka Lao P.D.R. Bangladesh Pakistan Tajikistan Solomon Islands Turkmenistan Samoa India Papua New Guinea Afghanistan Brunei Darussalam Kiribati 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Data source: ITU. (2016). World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators database. Available from: http://www.itu.int/en/itu-d/statistics/pages/publications/wtid.aspx
Broadband affordability in NCA 29 Fixed Broadband Mobile Broadband Source : Produced by ESCAP, based on data sourced from ITU Measuring the Information Society Report
Broadband affordability and fixed broadband subscriptions 30 Sources: Produced by ESCAP, based on data sourced from ITU World Telecommunications/ICT Indicators Database
31 Regulations and Broadband Access There is a strong correlation between the perceptions on quality of regulations (World Bank World Governance Indicators) and fixed-broadband subscriptions. Source: ESCAP. (2016). The State of ICT in Asia and the Pacific: Uncovering the Widening Broadband Divide. Better quality of regulation instills certainty in an investment environment, which encourages private operators to invest more.
Online Services & Telecommunications Infrastructure Indices 32 Source: ESCAP. (2016). The State of ICT in Asia and the Pacific: Uncovering the Widening Broadband Divide.
33 Projected bandwidth demand in NCA Projected annual growth 2016-2020 Projected Total growth 2016-2020 Share of corporate data in international bandwidth demand 2016 Share of corporate data in international bandwidth demand 2020 Share of Internet in international bandwidth demand 2016 Share of Internet in international bandwidth demand 2020 Azerbaijan 45.7% +350.2% 11.3% 12.5% 88.7% 87.4% Kazakhstan 49.6% +399.5% 16.6% 16.7% 83.2% 83.3% Kyrgyzstan 51.4% +423.3% 2.2% 5.1% 97.8% 94.9% Russian Federation 38.0% +263.1% 34.5% 40.2% 65.2% 59.6% Tajikistan 102.5% +1562.5% 12.5% 8.3% 87.5% 91.7% Turkmenistan 132.7% +2700.0% 7.5% 8.9% 75.0% 91.1% Uzbekistan 57.5% +508.0% 8.0% 11.5% 88.0% 86.1% Region 40.9% +294.1% 29.9% 32.9% 69.8% 67.0% Source: ESCAP, Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in Asia Pacific, 2016.
Forecasted international bandwidth in NCA 2015-2026 300,000 Forecasted international bandwidth in North and Central Asia, 2015-2026 158 87167 Gbps 200,000 119 47341 136 64194 100,000 0 33 2164 5306 37 3180 7431 43 4673 10280 51 6831 14449 58 9843 20224 67 13796 28106 78 19152 39403 90 25879 54982 104 34976 76703 107155 149909 209980 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Internet Voice Corporate data Source: ESCAP, Updated Analysis of the Broadband Infrastructure in Asia Pacific, 2016.
Broadband Drivers in developed in Rep. of Korea and Japan. Consistent & Strong Policies Government set up goal, directions, implementation frameworks and financing methods critical to the development of national ICT infrastructure. Take part in all processes of developing national infrastructure as a control tower from planning to implementation Stimulating the participation from the private sector Initial demand generation and a rapid expansion of informatization in the public sector. Funding via Public- Private Partnership (PPP), especially in rural area. well-balanced virtuous cycle between supplyside and demandgenerating policies Promoting Market competitions 35 Encouraged market competition using liberalizing market entry Ease entry restriction for new entrants and to formulate an environment for fair competition, such as enhancing regulation on Interconnection and Infrastructure sharing
36 A Study on the Belt and Road initiative to connect China and Central Asia Logical Network Topology in China-Central Asia To connect countries along the Belt and Road, Kazakhstan and Urumqi are selected to be the core nodes for both intra- and intercorridor connectivity, because of their strong international connectivity
37 A Study on the Belt and Road initiative to connect China and Central Asia Physical Network Topology in China-Central Asia Two cross-border fibre-optic routes in this topology are not currently present - Pakistan-Urumqi - Azerbaijan- Kazakhstan.
38 Thank you Email: escap-ids@un.org