ICES Advice on fishing opportunities, catch, and effort Arctic Ocean, Barents Sea, Faroes, Greenland Sea, Published 13 June 2017 Icelandic Waters, and Norwegian Sea Ecoregions DOI: 10.17895/ices.pub.3212 Beaked redfish (Sebastes mentella) in subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic) ICES stock advice ICES advises that when the precautionary approach is applied, catches in 2018 should be no more than 32 658 tonnes. Stock development over time Spawning stock biomass (SSB) increased steadily from 1992 to 2005 and stabilized thereafter. Following a period of low recruitment in 1998 2005, strong year classes have become evident from 2006. Since 1997 fishing mortality has been at a relatively low level and has been increasing in the last four years. Figure 1 Beaked redfish in subareas 1 and 2. Summary of the stock assessment. Stock and exploitation status Table 1 Beaked redfish in subareas 1 and 2. State of the stock and fishery relative to reference points. ICES Advice 2017 1
Catch options Table 2 Beaked redfish in subareas 1 and 2. The basis for the catch options. Variable Value Source Notes F ages 12 18 (2017) 0.030 ICES (2017) F 2017 = F 2016. SSB (2018) 849 482 ICES (2017) In tonnes. R age 2 (2017) 151 400 ICES (2017) 1992 2016 geometric mean (in thousands). Catch (2017) 32 924 ICES (2017) Corresponding to F 2017 = F 2016 (in tonnes). Table 3 Beaked redfish in subareas 1 and 2. Annual catch options. All weights are in tonnes. Basis Total catch (2018) F total (2018) SSB (2019) % SSB change * % TAC change ** ICES advice basis Precautionary approach F = F 2017= F 2016 32658 0.030 863120 1.6 8.9 Other options F = 0 0 0 892936 5.1 100 F 2018 = 1.1 F 2017 35856 0.032 860203 1.3 19.5 F 2018 = 1.2 F 2017 39042 0.035 857298 0.9 30.1 F 2018 = 0.9 F 2017 29448 0.027 866048 2.0 1.8 F 2018 = 0.8 F 2017 26225 0.024 868988 2.3 12.6 * SSB 2019 relative to SSB 2018. ** Catch in 2018 relative to TAC in 2017 (30 000 t). Basis of the advice Table 4 Beaked redfish in subareas 1 and 2. The basis of the advice. Advice basis Precautionary approach. Management plan There is no agreed management plan for this stock. Quality of the assessment The trends in numbers and biomass estimated using the assessment model are believed to be robust; however, the absolute biomass levels are not. These absolute estimates are sensitive to the choice of an appropriate scaling coefficient for the Norwegian Russian ecosystem survey. The survey series used currently in the assessment model does not appropriately cover the geographical distribution of the adult population. Priority should be given to including data from the slope and pelagic surveys, that include older age groups, in future assessments. Age determination is lacking for some surveys and catches in recent years. Year-to-year variations in the weight-at-age of the 19+ group are not biologically grounded and induce spurious variations in SSB. These issues will be addressed during the forthcoming benchmark assessment planned for 2018. ICES Advice 2017 2
Figure 2 Beaked redfish in subareas 1 and 2. Historical assessment results. Issues relevant for the advice Fish over age 19 compose the majority of the catch, but age data are not available for this portion of the stock. This results in the overall estimated biomass level being rather uncertain. Following from a NEAFC/JNRFC request, ICES evaluated harvest control rules for this stock in 2014, with the results from that evaluation suggesting that F0.1 = 0.039 could be considered as an FMSY proxy (ICES, 2014a). No management plan was subsequently adopted by Norway and Russia. There is no international agreement on the sharing of TAC among countries and between national and international waters, and it is anticipated that the sum of the catches allocated to individual nations will exceed the recommended TAC. Given the uncertainty on the estimated fishable biomass, the lack of agreed reference points, anticipated catches in excess of the recommended TAC, and considering that the assessment will be benchmarked in 2018, the current advice is given for one year only and on a precautionary basis. The advised catches correspond to F = F(2016) = 0.030, which is below F0.1 and can be considered precautionary. The planned benchmark is expected to develop reference points on which future advice for the stock can be based. Reference points There are no reference points for this stock. Basis of the assessment Table 5 Beaked redfish in subareas 1 and 2. Basis of the assessment and advice. ICES stock data category 1 (ICES, 2016). Assessment type Statistical catch-at-age model. Commercial catches: international landings (tonnes), age frequencies and weight-at-age from catch sampling of the pelagic and demersal fisheries; survey indices: Input data numbers-at-age from BS-NoRu-Q1-Btr, Eco-NoRu-Q3-Btr, Ru-Q4-Btr; annual maturity data from BS-NoRu-Q1-Btr, Eco-NoRu-Q3-Btr, and commercial catch sampling; natural mortalities were fixed at 0.05. Discards and bycatch Discarding and bycatch are assumed negligible. Indicators Survey-based biomass estimate in the Norwegian Sea (Red-Nor-Q3). Other information Last benchmark was in February 2012 (WKRED; ICES, 2012). Proposed management plans were evaluated in January 2014 (WKREDMP; ICES, 2014b). Next benchmark is scheduled for 2018. Working group Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG) ICES Advice 2017 3
Information from stakeholders No information from stakeholders was provided. History of the advice, catch, and management Table 6 Beaked redfish in subareas 1 and 2. ICES advice and official landings. All weights are in tonnes. Year ICES advice Predicted catch corresponding to advice Agreed TAC ICES landings 1987 Precautionary TAC 70000* 85000 35000 1988 F F 0.1; TAC 11000-41000 1989 Status quo F; TAC 12000-47000 1990 Status quo F; TAC 18000-63000 1991 F at F med; TAC 12000-68000 1992 If required, precautionary TAC 22000-32000 1993 If required, precautionary TAC 18000 18000 12814 1994 If required, precautionary TAC - - 12721 1995 Lowest possible F - - 10284 1996 Catch at lowest possible level - - 8075 1997 Catch at lowest possible level - - 8598 1998 No directed fishery, reduce bycatch - - 14045 1999 No directed fishery, reduce bycatch - - 11209 2000 No directed fishery, bycatch at lowest possible level - - 10075 2001 No directed fishery, bycatch at lowest possible level - - 18418 2002 No directed fishery, bycatch at lowest possible level - - 6993 2003 No directed fishery, bycatch at lowest possible level - - 2520 2004 No directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits - - 5493** 2005 No directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits - - 8465** 2006 No directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits - - 33261** 2007 No directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits - 15500^ 20219** 2008 Protection of juveniles, no directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits - 14500^ 13095** 2009 Protection of juveniles, no directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits - 10500^ 10246** 2010 Protection of juveniles, no directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits - 8600^ 11924** 2011 Protection of juveniles, no directed trawl fishery and low bycatch limits - 7900^ 12962** 2012 Protection of juveniles, no directed fishery and low bycatch limits - 7500^ 11059** 2013 F 0.1 < 47000 19500^ 9474** 2014 Status quo catch < 24000 36800^^ 18780** 2015 Precautionary approach < 30000 30000 # 25836 2016 Precautionary approach < 30000 30000 # 33979 2017 Precautionary approach < 30000 30000 # 2018 Precautionary approach < 32658 * Includes both Sebastes mentella and S. norvegicus. ** Includes the pelagic catches in the Norwegian Sea outside the EEZ. ^ TAC set by the North East Atlantic Fisheries Commission (NEAFC) for an Olympic fishery in international waters. ^^ Sum of TAC set by NEAFC in international waters and by Norway in the Norwegian Economic Zone. # TAC set by jointly by Norway and Russia. ICES Advice 2017 4
History of the catch and landings Table 7 Beaked redfish in subareas 1 and 2. Catch distribution by fleet in 2016 as estimated by ICES. Catch (2016) Landings Discards 33 979 tonnes 21% International waters (pelagic trawl) 79% NEZ and Svalbard (predominalty demersal trawl) Assumed to be negligible 33 979 tonnes ICES Advice 2017 5
ICES Advice on fishing opportunities, catch, and effort Arctic Ocean, Barents Sea, Faroes, Greenland Sea, Published 13 June 2017 Icelandic Waters, and Norwegian Sea Ecoregions DOI: 10.17895/ices.pub.3212 Table 8 Beaked redfish in subareas 1 and 2. History of nominal catch for each country participating in the fishery. All weights are in tonnes. Year Denmark Faroe Islands France Germany Greenland Iceland Ireland Latvia Lithuania Norway Poland Portugal Russia Spain (Engl. & Wal.) (Scotl.) ** Total UK UK Can 1993 4 13 50 35 1 5182 963 6260 5 293-12814 8 1994 28 4 74 18 1 3 6511 895 5021 30 124 12 12721 1995 3 16 176 2 4 2646 927 6346 67 93 4 10284 1996 4 75 119 3 2 6053 467 925 328 76 23 8075 1997 4 37 81 16 6 4657 1 474 2972 272 71 7 8598 1998 20 73 100 14 9 9733 13 125 3646 177 93 41 14045 1999 73 26 202 50 3 7884 6 65 2731 29 112 28 11209 2000 50 12 62 29 48 1 6020 2 115 3519 87 130 10075 2001 Est 74 16 198 17 3 4 13937 5 179 3775 90 120 18418 2002 15 75 58 99 18 41 4 2152 8 242 3904 190 188 6993 2003-64 22 32 8 5 5 1210 7 44 952 47 124 2520 2004 Swe - 1-588 13 10 4 10 3 1375 42 235 2879 257 Netherl. 76 5493 2005 5 1147 46 33 39 4 4 1760 140 5023 163 7 95 8465 2006 Can - 433 396 3808 215 2483 63 2513 4 341 845 4710 2496 1804 11413 710 1027 33261 2007 684 2197 234 520 29 1587 17 349 785 3209 1081 1483 5660 2181 202 20219 2008 1849 187 16 25 9 9 267 117 2220 8 713 7117 463 13 83 13096 EU - 2009 1343 15 42 33 2677 338 806 3843 177 3 80 10246 889 2010 979 175 21 12 2 243 457 2065 293 6414 1184 79 11924 2011 984 175 835 2 536 565 2471 11 613 5037 1678 55 12962 2012 259 517 36 447 449 2114 318 1038 4101 1780 11059 2013 697 80 21 1 280 262 1835 84 1078 3677 1459 9474 2014 743 215 446 15-215 167 13503 103 505 1704 1162 3 18780 2015 657 49 242 48 3 537 192 19720 5 678 1142 2529 3 52 25856 2016* 482 92 434 102 8 1243 1064 17631 206 1066 8419 3138 94 33979 ICES Advice 2017 6
* Provisional figures. ** Includes UK (E&W) since 2000. ICES Advice 2017 7
ICES Advice on fishing opportunities, catch, and effort Arctic Ocean, Barents Sea, Faroes, Greenland Sea, Published 13 June 2017 Icelandic Waters, and Norwegian Sea Ecoregions DOI: 10.17895/ices.pub.3212 Summary of the assessment Table 9 Year Beaked redfish in subareas 1 and 2. Assessment summary. Weights are in tonnes. Recruitment Age 2 High 95% Low 95% SSB High 95% Low 95% Catch F Ages 12 18 thousands tonnes tonnes year 1 1992 550651 719253 421571 124220 182088 84742 15590 0.087 1993 335911 433410 260344 145117 206986 101741 12814 0.069 1994 233692 300259 181882 228192 314072 165795 12721 0.05 1995 223980 286126 175331 251946 338846 187332 10284 0.04 1996 196171 249832 154036 229139 319348 164413 8075 0.025 1997 164783 210135 129219 296915 394278 223594 8598 0.024 1998 76235 97497 59609 343881 446492 264852 14045 0.034 1999 61109 78121 47802 439076 554586 347624 11209 0.022 2000 46662 59588 36540 531678 666941 423848 10075 0.017 2001 29154 37493 22670 472042 593202 375628 18418 0.028 2002 30911 39870 23965 569050 707390 457765 6993 0.009 2003 34199 44603 26222 677683 834520 550321 2520 0.003 2004 42323 55590 32222 722840 886037 589703 5493 0.006 2005 79255 104702 59993 784771 957109 643465 8465 0.009 2006 180624 238913 136556 785625 959128 643508 33261 0.028 2007 330396 443136 246338 939300 1141600 772849 20219 0.016 2008 329491 448060 242298 923403 1127377 756334 13095 0.01 2009 312609 438587 222817 977799 1190881 802844 10246 0.008 2010 417305 596403 291989 882202 1075369 723734 11924 0.01 2011 484009 731225 320373 937472 1142674 769121 12962 0.01 2012 334959 524311 213991 956916 1164403 786401 11056 0.008 2013 235885 387401 143628 819787 998513 673051 9474 0.008 2014 137924 252892 75222 918103 1116716 754814 18780 0.015 2015 187689 414410 85005 871128 1057960 717290 25836 0.022 2016 177777 593132 53284 857406 1041027 706173 33979 0.03 Average 209348 627428 13845 0.024 Sources and references ICES 2012. Report of the Benchmark Workshop on Redfish (WKRED), 1 8 February 2012, ICES HQ, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2012/ACOM:48. 291 pp. ICES. 2014a. NEAFC/JNRFC request to ICES on evaluation of proposed harvest control rules for Sebastes mentella in Subareas I and II. In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 2014. ICES Advice 2014, Book 3, Section 3.2.3.1. 11 pp. ICES. 2014b. Report of the Workshop on Redfish Management Plan Evaluation (WKREDMP), 20 25 January 2014, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2014/ACOM:52. 269 pp. ICES. 2016. Advice basis. In Report of the ICES Advisory Committee, 2016. ICES Advice 2016, Book 1, Section 1.2. ICES 2017. Report of the Arctic Fisheries Working Group (AFWG), 19 25 April 2017, ICES HQ, Copenhagen, Denmark. ICES CM 2017/ACOM:06. 486 pp. ICES Advice 2017 8