The American Electorate of the 21st Century Morley Winograd and Michael D. Hais NDN Fellows and Co-authors of Millennial Makeover
New American Demographics
The New America: America Is a Dynamic and Changing Nation Is about to be shaped by the Millennial Generation, the largest and most diverse generation in U.S. history Is more ethnically diverse Is more Southern and Western Is better educated Has a smaller manual labor force, especially among white population
There are now about 17 million more Millennials alive than Baby Boomers and 27 million more Millennials as there are members of Generation X. Total U.S. Births, in Millions, 1950 to 1998 4.5 Millions of Births 4.0 3.5 3.0 BOOMER GEN-XERS MILLENNIALS 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census (2000)
Millennials Will Increasingly Dominate the Electorate Over the Next Decade 10 99% 9 8 8 7 6 41% 17% 51% 61% 24% 36% 1 2008 2010 2012 2016 2020 Percentage of Millennials Eligible to Vote Millennial Contribution to Voting Age Population
The Rise of a Multi-racial America Percentage of the U.S. Population that is White drops by 25% 10 9 8 7 6 1 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 White - Non-Hispanic Minority Source: US Census Bureau
On Track to Becoming Majority Minority 10 The U.S. Will be 47% White by 2050 9 8 7 6 1 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 White, Non-Hispanic Minority Source: U.S. Census, March, 2004; Pew Research Center, 2/11/08
Hispanic Population Boom By 2050, Hispanics will be more than ¼ of the US population 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Total Population Hispanic Population Source: US Census Bureau and Pew Hispanic Center, 2/11/08
Americans Moving South and West 100 Largest Cities Shift from Northeast to South and West 10 9 8 7 6 1 1850 1900 1950 2000 Northeast Midwest South West Source: Census.gov
The Dream of Mass Education is a Reality in 21 st Century America Adults 25+ 1940 1960 1980 2000 Less Than Complete High School High School Graduates Some College College Graduates 2008 6 8 10 Source: US Census Bureau
The Labor Force Transformed Farmers/Other Manual Clerical/Sales 1940 2006 Managerial Professional 5% 1 15% 25% 35% Source: US Census Bureau
Southern Whites White workers FDR s Dominant Voter Coalition Central, Eastern, and Southern European immigrants and their children African-Americans in America s big cities
The Democratic New Deal Coalition Dominated American Politics in the Mid-20th Century Won the presidency in 7 of 9 elections, 1932-1964 Controlled Congress in 16 of 18 Congresses, 1932-1966 Transformed economic policy from laissez-faire to governmental activism Transformed foreign policy from isolationism to interventionism Moved America from segregation toward racial equality
Nixon s Republican Southern Strategy Cracks the New Deal Coalition Won the presidency in 7 of 10 elections, 1968-2004 Controlled Congress consistently from 1995-2007 Halted or rolled back New Deal and Great Society economic programs Campaigned on divisive social and racial issues
The White South Leaves the Democratic Coalition Partisanship of Southern White Presidential Popular Vote 9 8 7 6 1 1932 1952 1976 1980 1988 1996 2000 2004 2008 Democratic Republican Independent Data sources: 1932 & 1952: Tabulated popular vote totals 1997-2008: New York Times exit polls
The Disappearing White Working Class Occupation of White Voters by Decade 45% 35% 25% 15% 1 5% 1952-1960 1962-1970 1972-1980 1982-1990 1992-2000 2002-2008 Manual Clerical/Sales Professional/Managerial Data source: NES Cumulative File
White Workers Leave the Democratic Coalition Occupation of White Democratic Voters by Decade 6 1 1952-1960 1962-1970 1972-1980 1982-1990 1992-2000 2002-2008 Manual Clerical/Sales Professional/Managerial Data source: NES Cumulative File
Millennial Strategy Program Frank N. Magid Associates is widely recognized as the preeminent generational insights organization Formed in 2005, The Millennial Strategy Program is grounded in Magid s 50 years of primary research expertise and illuminated with deep knowledge of social, cultural, and political events. Through extensive focus on the role of Baby Boomers, Gen Xers, and Millennials, the firm has unparalleled insight into the ways generational movements define worldwide culture, business success, and influence political and social events. We look at generations as much more than age-groups, which is why we study historical events and use multiple methodologies and research techniques Over the past six years, the Millennial Strategy Program has conducted over 60,000 online interviews, hundreds of inhome and other ethnographic sessions, and led numerous qualitative group discussions
Millennial Clients ABC-Disney Television Group ABC Family Anheuser-Busch AOL Bonneville International Clear Channel Communications Comcast Cable Conde Nast Cox Enterprises Current TV DirecTV Dispatch Group Dow Jones Company Evening Post Publishing General Growth Properties Hearst Corporation Lee Enterprises MediaFlo Media General Meredith Corporation NBC New York Times News Corp Paramount Television Saban Capital Sony Pictures Television Sony PlayStation/SCEA Tribune Interactive Warner Bros Television Washington Mutual
Michael Hais Extensive media, entertainment, and political experience. Retired VP-Entertainment Research, 22 years with Frank N. Magid Associates, world s most influential media research firm. Designed and analyzed 1200+ quantitative surveys and 2000+ qualitative projects at Magid. Democratic pollster in Michigan, 1970s and 1980s. Ph.D. political science, dissertation on party coalitions and realignment. Co-authored, with Morley Winograd, Millennial Makeover, New York Times 2008 top-ten book.
An Emerging New and Potentially Dominant 21st Century Democratic Coalition Young voters African-Americans Hispanics Women The Northeast and West Highly educated Americans
Young Voters Increasingly Democratic Since 1980s Partisanship of 18-29 Presidential Vote 7 6 1 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Democrat Republican Independent Young voters were Baby Boomers (born 1946-1964) in 1976 and 1980. The first members of Generation X (born 1965-1981) voted in 1984. The first Millennials (born 1982-2003) voted in 2000. Data source: New York Times exit polls
African-Americans and Hispanics: Democrats for Decades Democratic Percentage of African-American and Hispanic Presidential Vote 10 8 6 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 African-American Hispanic Data source: New York Times exit polls
Women Increasingly Democratic Since 1980s Partisanship of Female Presidential Vote 6 1 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Democrat Republican Independent Since 1980 a "gender gap," women averaged 8% more Democratic than men. Data source: New York Times exit polls
Northeast and West Increasingly Democratic Since 1980s Democratic Percentage of Northeast and West Presidential Vote 7 6 1 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Northeast West Data source: New York Times exit polls
College Graduates and Postgraduates Increasingly Democratic Since 1980s Democratic Percentage of College Graduate And Postgraduate Presidential Vote 7 6 1 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 College graduates Postgraduates Data source: New York Times exit polls
A New Democratic Party Majority National Party ID* 55% 45% 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 35% Democrats 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 Republicans 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 * Partisans and leaners combined Data source: Pew Survey Research Center
The 21 st Century Democratic Coalition Is Majority Female 10 9 8 7 6 1 45% 55% Democratic Identifiers/Leaners 56% 44% Republican Identifiers/Leaners Female Male Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
The 21 st Century Democratic Coalition Is Younger 10 9 8 7 6 1 15% 32% 32% 21% Democratic Identifiers/Leaners 25% 35% 26% 14% Republican Identifiers/Leaners Millennial Generation Generation X Baby Boomer Generation Silent Generation A majority of Democrats are from the two youngest generations Six in ten Republicans are from the two oldest generations Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
The 21 st Century Democratic Coalition Is More Ethnically Diverse 10 9 1% 5% 11% 3% 6% 1% 2% 8 14% 7 6 89% 68% 1 Democratic Identifiers/Leaners Republican Identifiers/Leaners White African-American Hispanic Asian Other Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
The 21st Century Democratic Coalition Skews to the Northeast and West 10 9 8 7 6 1 27% 23% 15% 23% 22% Democratic Identifiers/Leaners Republican Identifiers/Leaners South Midwest West Northeast Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
Both Male and Female Millennials Identify as Democrats 10 9 8 7 6 28% 22% 21% 22% 55% 1 Male Millennials Female Millennials Democratic Identifiers/Leaners Republican Identifiers/Leaners Independents Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
Millennial Democratic Loyalties Cross Ethnic Lines 10 9 8 7 6 1 32% 22% 47% White Millennials 9% 16% 75% African-American Millennials 15% 19% 66% Hispanic Millennials Democratic Identifiers/Leaners Independents Republican Identifiers/Leaners Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
New Attitudes
America is no Longer a Center-Right Nation Americans favor activist government Americans want government to promote economic equality Americans favor multilateralism in foreign policy
Conventional Wisdom to the Contrary, Most Americans Continue to Support Activist Government Favor government staying out of society & economy 26% Favor government actively trying to solve problems 54% 58% 2009* 2010* Not sure 17% 15% 1 6 * 2009 sample Millennial, Gen-X, and Boomer Generations only. 2010 percentage based on those generations only. Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
The New 21 st Century Democratic Coalition Favors Activist Government 8 7 6 1 Total Mention Female Millennial Gen-X African-American Hispanic Favor government actively trying to solve problems Favor government staying out of society & economy Not sure Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
Conventional Wisdom to the Contrary, Most Americans Continue to Support Policies Promoting Economic Equality Ensure that all Americans have basic standard of living and income even if it increases spending 53% Let each person get along on their own even if some have more 32% 2009* 2010* Not sure 17% 18% 1 6 * 2009 sample Millennial, Gen-X, and Boomer Generations only. 2010 percentage based on those generations only. Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
The New 21 st Century Democratic Coalition Favors Economic Equality 7 6 1 Total Mention Female Millennial Gen-X African- American Hispanic Ensure that all have basic standard of living and income even if increases spending Let each person get along on their own even if some have more Not sure Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
Most Americans Continue to Support Multilateralism in Foreign Policy Best way to protect national security is through building strong alliances with other nations 53% 55% Best way to protect national security is by relying on military strength 29% 31% 2009* 2010* Not sure 16% 16% 1 6 * 2009 sample Millennial, Gen-X, and Boomer Generations only. 2010 percentage based on those generations only. Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
The New 21 st Century Democratic Coalition Favors Multilateralism in Foreign Policy 6 1 Total Mention Female Millennial Gen-X African- American Hispanic Best way to protect national security is through building strong alliances with other nations Best way to protect national security is by relying on military strength Not sure Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
New Mobilization Strategies
Contrary to Conventional Wisdom the Democrats Can Win in 2010 If They Mobilize the New 21 st Century Coalition 2010 Congressional Vote Intention 8 7 6 1 Total Mention Female Millennial Gen-X African- American Hispanic Democratic Candidate Republican Candidate Other candidate Undecided Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
Mobilization Issues: Getting the Coalition Registered 9 8 7 6 1 Total Mention Female Millennial Gen-X African- American Registered to Vote Moved since 2008 Hispanic Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
Mobilization Issues: Getting the Coalition Inspired and to the Polls 7 6 1 Total Mention Female Millennial Gen-X African- American Hispanic Absolutely certain will vote in 2010 Very important which party wins in 2010 Source: Frank N. Magid Associates, February 2010
Massachusetts: A Case Study in Losing by Not Using the New Coalition 45% 35% 25% 15% 1 5% 2008 General Election Contribution to Electorate 2010 U.S. Senate Special Election Contribution to Electorate 18-29 year olds 30-44 year olds Minorities Democratic Identifiers Self-perceived liberals Majorities of all groups, except 30-44s, voted Democratic in both 2008 and 2010 Data sources: 2008 CNN Election Day exit poll 2010 PPP Final pre-election poll, January 16-17, 2010