Chart Discussion: Fri-25-May-2018 Rainfall Last Week 1
Last Week s Charts 2
MSL Analysis / Sat Image (Thu) 3
MSL Analysis / Sat Image (Fri) 4
Last Week s Model Forecasts OBSERVED Chart Discussion: Fri-25-May-2018 (Harvey Stern) MSL Pressure: Thu-24-May-2018 168H ACCESS 168H US GFS 168H ECMWF 5
Last Month s GFS Model WIND Forecasts Observed Dir., Speed: Far Left Columns; Forecast: Centre & Right Columns 1.5.18 G9. N N N N N N N N N NNW N N N WSW 15 15 15 15 15 25 15 5 15 5 10 15 15 25 2.5.18 G9. N N N N N N N N N N N N N N 25 25 25 25 30 25 25 25 5 15 5 15 20 15 3.5.18 G9. N N N N N WNW WNW NNW N N N N NNW N 35 35 35 25 30 15 15 5 25 5 15 15 8 30 4.5.18 G9. WNW WNW WNW WNW N N WSW WSW WNW SSW N N N SSE 30 30 30 20 30 25 25 25 15 12 5 5 10 5 5.5.18 G9. WNW WNW WNW WNW N N N WSW WSW N NNW N NW N 20 20 20 20 25 25 25 20 15 35 8 15 5 30 6.5.18 G9. N N N NW WSW WNW WSW N NW SSW N WNW WNW N 25 25 25 10 15 20 5 35 10 10 25 20 15 15 7.5.18 G9. N N N N N N NNW N N NW WSW NNE WSW WNW 30 30 35 35 35 15 8 15 25 15 15 25 25 20 8.5.18 G9. WNW NNW NNW NNW NNW N WSW SSE N WNW SW WSW WNW WSW 5 5 5 5 5 30 15 5 35 20 5 25 20 20 9.5.18 G9. N N WNW WNW N SW NNW SSE N N WNW N WNW WSW 25 25 15 15 25 5 5 5 10 35 15 25 20 35 10.5.18 G9. WNW WNW WNW WSW WSW SSW SW SSE N N N WNW WNW WNW 20 20 15 15 25 20 5 5 25 10 40 20 15 20 11.5.18 G9. WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW SSW SSW N N WNW N SSW SSW N 35 35 35 35 35 30 10 5 10 20 10 20 10 20 12.5.18 G9. SSW SSW SSW SSW WSW SSW SSW SSW WNW N WNW N SSW SW 30 30 30 30 35 30 30 10 15 5 15 25 12 5 13.5.18 G9. SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SW SW S WSW WSW SSW 20 20 20 20 20 20 30 20 5 5 12 15 25 12 14.5.18 G9. SSW WSW WSW SSW SSW SSW WSW SSW SSW SW SSE WSW NNW WSW 13 8 8 12 12 12 15 12 12 5 5 25 5 35 15.5.18 G9. WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW WNW WNW WNW WSW SW NNW NNW WSW N 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 5 8 5 15 25 16.5.18 G9. SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW WSW WSW WNW WSW NW WNW N WNW 12 12 12 12 12 12 15 25 15 15 10 15 10 20 17.5.18 G9. WNW WNW WNW WNW WNW WSW NNW SW WSW WSW WSW WNW WNW SSE 20 20 15 15 15 15 8 5 15 25 15 20 20 5 18.5.18 G9. WNW WNW WNW WNW WSW WNW WNW WNW WSW NW NW WSW WSW SW 18 20 15 15 15 20 15 20 15 10 10 15 15 5 19.5.18 G9. WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SW WNW N WNW NNW 15 15 15 25 15 12 12 12 20 5 20 35 15 5 20.5.18 G9. WNW WNW WNW WNW WSW WSW WSW SW WSW WSW SW SW WNW N 20 20 20 20 15 15 15 5 15 25 5 5 20 30 21.5.18 G9. WNW WNW WNW WSW WNW WNW WNW NW WSW WSW WSW WNW SW SSW 20 20 20 25 20 20 20 10 5 15 25 15 5 20 22.5.18 G9. WSW WSW WSW WNW WNW WNW WNW WNW WNW NNW WSW WSW SSW N 25 25 25 20 20 20 20 20 15 8 15 15 12 10 23.5.18 G9. WNW WNW WNW WSW WNW WNW WNW WNW WSW SW N WSW WSW SSE 15 15 15 15 20 20 20 15 25 5 25 15 15 5 24.5.18 G9. WSW WSW WSW WSW NW WSW WNW WNW N WNW N N SSW SSE 15 15 15 15 10 15 15 20 25 30 15 25 10 5 25.5.18 G9. N N NNW NNW NW NW WSW SSW N N WNW N N SW 5 5 5 5 10 10 15 10 30 35 20 25 45 5 26.5.18 G9. N N N N N NNW N N WNW N WNW N N 15 15 15 25 15 5 15 15 15 30 20 25 25 27.5.18 G9. N N N N N N N N N WNW WNW N 25 25 30 35 30 25 35 15 25 20 20 25 28.5.18 G9. N N N WNW WSW WSW N N N WSW N 25 30 25 20 25 15 35 35 35 25 15 29.5.18 G9. N N N WNW WSW WNW WNW NNE SSW SSW 25 30 30 15 15 15 15 25 20 15 30.5.18 G9. WSW WSW WSW N N WSW SW WNW WSW 25 25 35 15 5 25 5 20 35 31.5.18 G9. WSW WSW WSW WSW N SSW WNW SSW 15 15 20 15 35 20 20 12 1.6.18 G9. NNW S WSW NW N S WSW 5 15 8 12 20 15 20 2.6.18 G9. N WNW N NNW NW SW 20 5 20 8 20 5 3.6.18 G9. N N N N WSW 20 30 20 20 20 4.6.18 G9. NW NW WNW WSW 8 30 5 8 5.6.18 G9. WSW WSW NW 12 25 12 6.6.18 G9. SW N 10 30 7.6.18 G9. SW 65
Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Click on: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/gsstanim.gif 7
Climate Indices Chart Discussion: Fri-25-May-2018 (Harvey Stern) Tropical Pacific still El Niño Southern Oscillation neutral 8
Issued: 17 May Chart Discussion: Fri-25-May-2018 (Harvey Stern) BoM Seasonal Outlook Dry winter likely for southwest Australia; Warmer than average winter likely in the south Rainfall Min Temp Max Temp 9
Seasonal Outlook (Statistical Model) Victoria Jun-Aug The expected MEI, adjusted by the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index and also by recent values of the SOI, for APR/MAY is -0.03. Such a value of MEI indicates a sea surface temperature distribution that corresponds to neither a La Niña nor an El Niño. This suggests: RAINFALL: There is little indication as to whether rainfall will be below, near or above normal in most Victorian Districts. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is an enhanced chance that average JUN/JUL/AUG overnight temperatures will be close to normal in most Districts. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is little indication as to whether daytime temperatures will be below, near or above normal in most Victorian Districts.
Monthly Outlook (Statistical Model) Melbourne In Melbourne, at this time of the year, a combination of the MEI, the DMI, and the MJO Phase, such as what we have operating now, suggests, over the following 30 days: RAINFALL: There is a 36% chance of it being wet, a 33% chance of normal rainfall, and a 31% chance of it being dry. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES: There is a 39% chance of warm nights, a 33% chance of normal overnight temperatures, and a 28% chance of cool nights. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES: There is a 34% chance of warm days, a 33% chance of normal daytime temperatures, and a 33% chance of cool days. 11
Jet Streams: Fri-25-May-2018 12
MSL Pressure: Fri-25-May-2018 13
Jet Streams: Sat-26-May-2018 14
MSL Pressure: Sat-26-May-2018 15
Jet Streams: Sun-27-May-2018 16
MSL Pressure: Sun-27-May-2018 17
Jet Streams: Mon-28-May-2018 18
MSL Pressure: Mon-28-May-2018 19
Jet Streams: Tue-29-May-2018 20
MSL Pressure: Tue-29-May-2018 21
Jet Streams: Wed-30-May-2018 22
MSL Pressure: Wed-30-May-2018 23
Jet Streams: Thu-31-May-2018 24
MSL Pressure: Thu-31-May-2018 25
Next Week s Model Forecasts MSL Pressure: Thu-31-May-2018 168H ACCESS 168H US GFS 168H ECMWF 26
Chart Discussion: Fri-18-May-2018 (Harvey Stern) Following Three-Day ACCESS MSLP Forecasts: Fri-01-Jun-2018 to Sun-03-Jun-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 27
PREDICTED WEATHER days one to ten: (ACCESS) & OFFICIAL (Week 1) Click on: http://www.weather-climate.com/00utc24may2018access.html 28
Following Three-Day GFS MSLP Forecasts: Fri-01-Jun-2018 to Sun-03-Jun-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 29
PREDICTED WEATHER weeks 1 & 2: (GFS) Click on: http://www.weather-climate.com/english.html 30
Following Three-Day ECMWF MSLP Forecasts: Fri-01-Jun-2018 to Sun-03-Jun-2018 Fri: Sat: Sun: 31
PREDICTED WEATHER weeks 1 & 2: (ECMWF) Click on: http://www.weather-climate.com/00utc24may2018ecmwfaa.html 32
Chart Discussion: Fri-25-May-2018 Thank You 33