Understanding the New Trump Economy Economic Overview. November 17, 2016

Understanding the New Trump Economy Economic Overview November 17, 2016

Uncertainty at the Na@onal and Interna@onal Level

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics The Trump Bump

Why?

National Job Growth 500 300 8.7 Million Jobs Lost Payroll Change 000 s 100-100 -300-500 14.6 Million Jobs Recovered -700-900 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

161,000 Jobs Added in October 350 300 295 280 271 271 Payroll Change 000 s 250 200 150 149 168 233 186 144 252 176 191 161 100 50 24 0 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

National Employment Change Percent Change in National Employment by Industry: Oct 2015 to Oct 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining -13.7% Total: 1.7% Construction 3.0% Manufacturing -0.4% Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government 1.5% 0.4% 2.1% 2.7% 2.7% 2.0% 1.5% 0.9% -16% -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted

National Employment Change Total Change in Number of Jobs by Industry in Thousands: Oct 2015 to Oct 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining -108 Construction 195 Manufacturing -53 Trade, Trans., Utilities 412 Information 10 Financial Activity 172 Prof. & Bus. Serv. 542 Ed. & Health Serv. 591 Leisure & Hospitality 304 Other Services 84 Government 208-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted

Unemployment Rate Remains Low 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 4.9% in October 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployed and Discouraged Workers 18.0 Showing LiLle Change 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 U-6 (Underemployed) U-3 (Unemployment) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Labor Force Participation Increase % 68.0 67.0 66.0 65.0 64.0 63.0 62.8 62.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Seasonally adjusted

Labor Force Participation Rate % 68 Among Lowest in Over 35 Years Mar 2000 67.3% 66 64 62 Apr 1978 63.0% 60 Oct 2016 62.8% 58 56 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Seasonally adjusted

Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% Men Women 1948 1954 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 Source: BLS

Employment in Non-Routine Occupations: 1967-2013

Employment in Routine Occupations: 1967-2013

Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession Thousands Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

Cumulative Job Loss by Months of Recession Thousands Source: Euler Hermes analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Data

Slower Recovery than Past Recessions 150 140 130 Index 120 110 100 90 80 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Periods from Value Scaled to 100 2008 Recession 2001 Recession 1990 Recession 1981 Recession 1980 Recession 1973 Recession Source: fred.stlouisfed.org

Slower Recovery than Past Recessions Source: fred.stlouisfed.org

Yearly Wage Growth Up Slightly in September 4.0% 3.5% 2007-2015 Average 2.4% Oct. 2016 2.8% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Growth rate calculated using real chained 1982-1984 dollars

Consumption Drives Growth 5% Total GDP Growth 3% Growth Rate 1% -1% Fixed Investment -3% -5% Inventories Net Exports Government Personal Consumption 2012 2013 2014 3Q GDP 2.9% 2015 2016 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Consumer Confidence Remains Moderate 120.0 Above 110 indicates economic prosperity 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 Apr 2012 Jul 2012 Oct 2012 Jan 2013 Apr 2013 Jul 2013 Oct 2013 Jan 2014 Apr 2014 Jul 2014 Oct 2014 Jan 2015 Apr 2015 Jul 2015 Oct 2015 Jan 2016 Apr 2016 Jul 2016 Oct 2016 Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board

Producer Price Index 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Percent 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0 Year-to-Year Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; seasonally adjusted

Growth in Consumer Spending Under Par 5.0 Personal Consumption Expenditure Yearly Percent Change 4.0 3.0 Percent 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

The U.S. Dollar is Strong 1973 = 100 Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Major Currencies 95 85 75 65 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Federal Reserve

Euro compared to U.S. Dollar $1.60 $1.50 $1.40 $1.39 $1.30 USD $1.20 $1.10 PARITY $1.00 $0.90 $0.80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 $1.05 Source: Investing.com

US Dollar Compared to Chinese Yuan Inverted Scale $6.00 $6.50 $7.00 $7.50 $8.00 $8.50 2008 China stops the yuan s rise 2001 China joins WTO 2005 China allows the yuan to rise 2010 China allows the yuan to rise Aug 2015 China devalues the yuan by largest amount in 20 years 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis

$1.80 British Pound Drops to New Low Following Brexit Vote $1.70 $1.60 USD $1.50 $1.40 $1.30 $1.20 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Investing.com

Drop in Oil Prices Causing Drop in Oil Production $120 2,200 $110 2,000 $100 1,800 $90 $80 $70 $60 $50 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 $40 800 $30 600 $20 400 2013 2014 2015 2016 Oil Prices Active Oil Rigs Sources: Baker Hughes and U.S. Energy Information Administration; WTI weekly averages Note: Total count includes oil and gas rigs

The Fed is Under Pressure Central Banks with Negative Interest Rates Japan European Central Bank Sweden Denmark Switzerland -0.10% -0.40% -0.50% -0.65% -0.75% Source: global-rates.com

Federal Funds Rate Forecast (September 2016) 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2016 2017 2018 2019 Long Run Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

Fed Funds Rate Longer Run Projections 4.50 4.25 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.00 2.75 2.50 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Average Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

Utah is One of the Fastest Growing CA 0.9% States in the Country Percent Change in Population for States: 2012 to 2013 NV 1.3% NM 0.1% U.S. Rate = 0.7% NH Utah Economic 0.1% WA ME 1.1% -0.01% OR 0.8% AK 0.7% VT ND 0.1% MT 3.1% MN 1.0% 0.8% NY ID SD WI 0.4% 1.0% 1.3% 0.3% MI WY 0.1% PA 1.0% IA Conditions 0.1% NE 0.5% OH 0.7% IL IN 0.2% UT 0.1% 0.5% WV 1.6% VA CO MO KY -0.1% KS 0.9% 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% NC 1.0% AZ 1.2% HI 1.0% TX 1.5% OK 0.9% AR 0.3% LA 0.5% MS 0.2% TN 0.6% AL 0.3% 1.15% or more.075% to 1.10% 0.5% to 0.9% 0% to 0.4% Population Loss SC 1.1% GA 0.8% FL 1.2% DC 2.1% CT 0.1% DE 0.9% MD 0.7% MA 0.7% RI 0.1% NJ 0.4% Source: U.S Census Bureau

Utah is One of the Fastest Growing States in the Country CNBC: Percent Utah Change Named in 2016 Population Top State for for States: Business 2012 to 2013 U.S. Rate = 0.7% NH 0.1% WalletHub: WA Utah Named 2016 State with Best Economy 1.1% NV 1.3% UT 1.6% MT 1.0% WY 1.0% ND 3.1% NE 0.7% MN 0.8% IA 0.5% IL 0.1% NY 0.4% MI 0.1% PA 0.1% OH IN 0.2% 0.5% WV VA KY -0.1% 0.9% 0.4% TN 0.6% AZ OK AR NM 1.2% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% MS AL GA 0.2% 0.3% 0.8% TX 1.5% LA Utah One of only 10 States with AAA 0.5% Bond Ra@ng AK 0.7% Utah Accolades HI 1.0% 1.15% or more.075% to 1.10% 0.5% to 0.9% 0% to 0.4% Population Loss VT 0.1% SC 1.1% FL 1.2% ME -0.01% OR CNBC: 0.8% Salt Lake City (18), Ogden (7), ID SD WI and Provo (2) Named Among 1.0% 1.3% 0.3% Top 20 Metro Areas to Start a Business in U.S. Forbes: Utah Named CO #1 Best KS State MO for Business (top stop 5 out DE of CA 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9% 0.9% past 6 years) NC 1.0% Standard & Poor s, Moody s Investors Service, and Fitch Ra@ngs: DC 2.1% CT 0.1% MD 0.7% MA 0.7% RI 0.1% NJ 0.4% Source: U.S Census Bureau

Utah Population Sixth Fastest Growing in U.S. CA 0.9% OR 1.5% WA 1.5% NV 1.9% ID 1.2% AK 0.2% UT 1.7% AZ 1.5% MT 0.9% WY 0.3% CO 1.9% NM 0.0% HI 0.8% Percent Change: 2014 to 2015 U.S. Rate = 0.8% ND 2.3% SD 0.6% NE 0.7% TX 1.8% KS 0.3% OK 0.8% MN 0.6% IA 0.5% MO 0.3% AR 0.4% WI 0.2% LA 0.5% IL -0.2% MS 0.0% MI 0.1% IN 0.3% TN 0.8% AL 0.3% 1.5% or more OH 0.1% KY 0.3% 0.8% to 1.4% (at or above U.S. rate) 0.3% to 0.7% 0.0% to 0.2% Population Loss WV -0.3% VT -0.1% PA 0.1% NC 1.0% SC 1.4% GA 1.2% VA 0.7% FL 1.8% NH 0.2% NY 0.2% ME -0.1% DC 1.9% CT -0.1% DE 1.1% MD 0.5% MA 0.6% RI 0.1% NJ 0.2% Source: U.S Census Bureau

Utah Population and Components of Change 3,600,000 3,300,000 2,995,900 90000 80000 Total Population 3,000,000 2,700,000 2,400,000 2,100,000 1,800,000 1,500,000 1,200,000 900,000 17,600 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 Components of Population Change 600,000 300,000 33,800 0-10000 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f -20000 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Data from 2014 on from State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population e = estimate, f = forecast

Utah Population Growth Rates By County 2014 to 2015 Box Elder 1.2% Tooele 2.2% Davis 1.9% Cache 2.1% Weber 1.3% Morgan 4.2% Salt Lake 1.3% Utah 2.4% Rich 0.8% Summit 1.3% Wasatch 5.0% Duchesne 2.7% Daggett -1.0% Uintah 2.6% State Average = 1.7% Juab 1.3% Carbon -0.7% Increase of 2.5% or Greater Millard 0.7% Sanpete 1.5% Sevier 0.7% Emery -2.5% Grand 0.7% Increase of 1.7% to 2.4% Beaver -1.5% Piute 2.1% Wayne -0.8% Increase of 1.0% to 1.6% Iron 2.3% Garfield -0.1% Increase of 0.0% to 0.9% San Juan 3.4% Population Loss Washington 2.5% Kane -1.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Utah Employment Growth 5 th Highest in the Nation CA 2.3% OR 3.5% WA 3.2% NV 2.7% AK -0.6% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Percent Change in Employment for States: September 2015 to September 2016 U.S. Rate = 1.7% NH 2.1% ID 3.2% UT 2.9% AZ 2.3% MT 0.2% WY -3.2% HI 2.5% CO 2.7% NM -0.4% ND -1.3% SD 2.5% NE 1.0% KS -0.4% TX 1.7% OK -0.7% MN 1.6% IA 1.9% MO 1.1% AR 1.5% WI 1.2% LA -1.0% IL 0.7% MS 0.7% 2.6% or more MI 2.0% IN 1.5% TN 2.5% AL 0.8% OH 1.4% KY 1.4% GA 2.8% WV 0.1% VT 2.0% PA 0.9% NC 1.9% SC 2.7% VA 2.1% FL 3.4% 1.7% to 2.5% (at or above the U.S. rate) 1.0% to 1.6% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss NY 1.1% ME 0.5% DC 1.9% CT 0.8% DE 2.9% MD 1.7% MA 2.2% RI 1.1% NJ 1.3%

Utah Total Employment at New Highs 1500 1400 Gain of 255,000 jobs from low in 2009 Thousands of Employees 1300 1200 1100 1000 900 Loss of 92,000 jobs from 2007-2009 800 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Total Nonfarm Employment Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm seasonally adjusted Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand

UT Industries - Employment Gains Percent Change in Utah Employment by Industry: September 2015 to September 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining -7.9% Total: 2.9% Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities 2.3% 3.5% 3.5% Information 0.6% Financial Activity 7.9% Prof. & Bus. Serv. 2.4% Ed. & Health Serv. 4.4% Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government 1.8% 1.3% 2.9% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

UT Industries Seeing Growth Total Change in Utah Employment by Industry: September 2015 to September 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining -800 Total: 39,800 Construction 3,100 Manufacturing 4,400 Trade, Trans., Utilities 6,000 Information 200 Financial Activity 6,300 Prof. & Bus. Serv. 4,800 Ed. & Health Serv. 8,200 Leisure & Hospitality 3,900 Other Services 700 Government 3,000-3,000-1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Utah Employment Change Rates By County Sep 2015 to Sep 2016 Box Elder 5.7% Tooele 5.2% Cache 2.0% Rich 9.7% Weber 3.2% Davis 1.4% Morgan 1.7% Salt Lake 3.3% Utah 5.3% Summit 5.0% Wasatch 4.8% Duchesne -5.8% Daggett 1.4% Uintah -12.6% State Rate = 2.9% Juab 1.5% Carbon -2.8% 5.0% or more Millard 1.6% Sanpete 1.9% Sevier 1.5% Emery -2.1% Grand 3.3% 2.9% to 4.9% Beaver -6.4% Piute -3.4% Wayne -0.1% 1.0% to 2.8% 0.0% to 0.9% Iron 5.5% Garfield -1.0% San Juan 0.0% Loss Washington 6.4% Kane 0.5% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services, Not seasonally adjusted

OR 5.5% CA 5.5% WA 5.6% NV 5.8% ID 3.8% UT 3.4% AZ 5.5% UT Unemployment Rates Among Lowest in the Nation MT 4.3% WY 5.3% CO 3.6% NM 6.7% September 2016 U.S. Rate = 5.0% ND 3.0% SD 2.9% NE 3.2% KS 4.4% OK 5.2% MN 4.0% IA 4.2% MO 5.2% AR 4.0% WI 4.1% IL 5.5% MS 6.0% MI 4.6% IN 4.5% TN 4.6% AL 5.4% OH 4.8% KY 5.0% GA 5.1% WV 5.8% VT 3.3% PA 5.7% NC 4.7% SC 4.9% VA 4.0% NH 2.9% NY 5.0% ME 4.1% DC 6.1% CT 5.4% DE 4.3% MD 4.2% MA 3.6% RI 5.6% NJ 5.3% AK 6.9% TX 4.8% LA 6.4% 3.9% or less 4.0% to 5.0% FL 4.7% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics HI 3.3% 5.1% to 5.5% (above the U.S rate) 5.6% to 5.9% 6.0% or more

Utah Unemployment Rates By County September 2016 State Rate = 3.4% 3.0% or lower Box Elder 3.3% Tooele 3.7% Millard 3.3% Juab 3.5% Davis 3.0% Cache 2.8% Weber 3.5% Salt Lake 3.0% Morgan 2.9% Utah 3.0% Sanpete 3.9% Sevier 4.3% Rich 3.3% Summit 3.0% Wasatch 3.1% Duchesne 8.0% Carbon 5.5% Daggett 4.6% Uintah 8.9% Emery 5.7% Grand 5.3% 3.1% to 3.4% Beaver 5.4% Piute 5.7% Wayne 7.3% 3.5% to 5.9% 6.0% to 7.9% Iron 4.2% Washington 3.4% Kane 3.7% Garfield 7.9% San Juan 7.5% 8.0% or greater Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Utah Personal Income Growth Highest in the Nation OR 1.3% CA 1.0% WA 1.1% NV 1.2% AK 0.4% ID 1.3% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Percent Change in Personal Income : Q1 2016 Q2 2016 U.S. = 1.0%; UT = 1.4% UT 1.4% AZ 1.2% MT 0.9% WY 0.5% HI 0.9% CO 1.1% NM 0.9% ND 0.5% SD 0.5% NE 1.3% KS 1.2% TX 0.9% OK 0.5% MN 0.9% IA 1.2% MO 1.0% AR 1.1% WI 1.0% LA 1.2% IL 1.0% MS 0.8% MI 1.1% IN 1.1% TN 1.0% AL 0.8% 1.2% or more OH 1.0% KY 0.8% GA 0.9% WV 1.0% VT 0.8% PA 1.0% NC 1.1% SC 0.9% VA 1.0% FL 1.2% NH 1.1% NY 1.0% 1.0% to 1.1% (at or above the U.S. rate) 0.6% to 0.9% 0.0% to 0.5% Decrease ME 0.7% DC 4.3% CT 1.1% DE 1.1% MD 1.1% MA 1.1% RI 0.9% NJ 1.0%

4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% Sept 2011 Consumer Price Index United States vs. Wasatch Front Year Over Year Change Dec 2011 Mar 2012 Jun 2012 Sept 2012 Dec 2012 Mar 2013 Jun 2013 Sept 2013 Dec 2013 Mar 2014 Jun 2014 United States CPI Zions Bank Wasatch Front CPI Sept 2014 Dec 2014 Mar 2015 Jun 2015 Sep 2015 Dec 2015 Mar 2016 June 2016 Sep 2016 Source: U.S. CPI from National Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wasatch Front CPI from Cicero Group

US Consumer Confidence Index vs. UT Consumer Attitude Index 120.0 Above 110 indicates economic prosperity 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index United States Consumer Confidence Index 50.0 Apr 2012 Jul 2012 Oct 2012 Jan 2013 Apr 2013 Jul 2013 Oct 2013 Jan 2014 Apr 2014 Jul 2014 Oct 2014 Jan 2015 Apr 2015 Jul 2015 Oct 2015 Jan 2016 Apr 2016 Jul 2016 Oct 2016 Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board and Utah CAI from Cicero Group

Utah Median Home Sale Price Reaching Pre-Recession Highs $300,000 $280,000 $260,000 $240,000 $220,000 $200,000 $180,000 $160,000 $140,000 $120,000 $100,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Utah U.S. Source: Graphiq.com reporting data from CoreLogic

Utah Maintains Lower Percentage of Foreclosures than Nation 1.8 Percentage of total homes in foreclosure process 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 U.S. Utah Source: Graphiq.com

Utah Residential Construction Activity Continues to Rise 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f Single-Family Units Multifamily Total Source: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Group, Moody s Economy.com, and HIS Global Insight

Utah Value of $8,000 New Construction Increasing $7,000 $6,000 Millions $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f Residential Nonresidential Renovations Total Source: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Group, Moody s Economy.com, and HIS Global Insight e= estimate f = forecast

Economic Headwinds Na@onal and interna@onal uncertainty Con@nued low energy prices Depressed business investment Unstable infla@on outlook Consumer spending and consumer confidence remain subpar

Economic Tailwinds Strong popula@on growth in the Intermountain West Utah job growth near the best in the country Unemployment low and dropping Construc@on ac@vity on the rise Utah accolades recognize a strong and growing economy

Utah Economic Indicators 2014-2016 Population Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate Personal Income Home Prices Retail Sales 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f Sources: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group, Moody s Economy.com, IHS Global Insights e = estimate f = forecast

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