Agenda Item D..a Supplemental Attachment June 01 DESCRIPTION OF THE AFFECTED ENVIRONMENT (KEY SOCIO-ECONOMIC TRENDS) AND SUPPLEMENTAL ANALYSIS OF THE ALTERNATIVES The following discussion provides information on the whiting fishery and communities especially for the three sectors affected by the Reconsideration of Initial Catch Share Allocations in the Mothership and Shoreside Pacific Whiting Fisheries. 1. Major Events Affecting the Whiting Fishery 196 Passage of the Magnuson-Stevens Act 198 Pacific Groundfish FMP established 1988 Foreign Fishing for Pacific Whiting ends 1990 Joint Venture Fishing for Pacific Whiting ends 199 Limited Entry implemented 199 Tribal treaty rights to groundfish formally recognized. 199 First year Pacific whiting specifically allocated between sectors 1998 American Fisheries Act passed into legislation 1999 Pacific Ocean Perch declared overfished 000 Canary rockfish declared overfished 000 Pacific Groundfish Disaster declared 001 Darkblotched rockfish and Widow rockfish declared overfished 00 Yelloweye rockfish declared overfished 00 Pacific Whiting declared overfished 003 U.S. Canada Whiting Agreement signed 003 Pacific Groundfish Trawl Buyback Program Implemented (December) 00 Advance notice of proposed rulemaking for TIQ program and notice of control date (November 6, 003) for the Pacific Coast groundfish fishery 00 Pacific whiting no longer considered overfished 00 Market conditions for Pacific Whiting start changing, ex-vessel prices, export prices, and exports of H&G whiting start rising significantly 00 Temporary rules prohibiting any vessel from participating in either the mothership, catcher-processor or shoreside delivery sector of the directed Pacific whiting (whiting) fishery off the West Coast in 00 if it does not have a history of sector-specific participation in the whiting fishery between January 1, 199, and January 1, 00. (Effective May 00 to May 008) 009 Amendment 1 Pacific Whiting Vessel License Limitation implemented 011 Trawl Rationalization Program implemented 01 U.S.-Canada Whiting Agreement implemented 01 Widow Rockfish declared rebuilt
. Harvests-199-011 Total, Shoreside, and Mothership 00 Pacific Whiting Harvest Trends 600 00 Million Lbs 00 300 00 100 0 9 9 96 9 98 99 00 01 0 03 0 0 06 0 08 09 10 11 Shoreside Landings (Million lbs) Mothership Catcher Vessel Harvests (Million Lbs) Total Harvests Including Catcher Processors and Tribal HG/OY/ACL Notes and Observations on Whiting Harvests: Total whiting harvests have varied over the years. Harvests track closely with HG/OY/ACL levels. Highest harvests (006-89 million lbs) and lowest harvests (009-68 million lbs) both occurred after 003.
3. Ex-Vessel Revenues-199-011 $60 Ex-vessel Revenues (Million $) $0 $0 $30 $0 $10 $- 9 9 96 9 98 99 00 01 0 03 0 0 06 0 08 09 10 11 $0 $60 $0 $0 $30 $0 $10 $0 Inflation Adjusted Ex-vessel Revenues (Million 010 $) 9 9 96 9 98 99 00 01 0 03 0 0 06 0 08 09 10 11 Shorebased Mothership Total including Catcher Processor and Tribal Notes and Observations on Ex-vessel Revenues Whiting ex-vessel revenues (including imputed exvessel revenues for CP sector) have ranged from a low of $1 million in 1996 to a peak of $60 million in 008. Ex-vessel revenues began an increasing trend in 003. It is presumed that the declines in 009 and 010 are due to the status of world economy and with OY/ACL levels. (See ex-vessel price and export trend below.). When adjusted for inflation, similar trends appear. 3
. Whiting Ex-Vessel Prices $0.1 Whiting Ex-vessel Price ($/lb PacFIN-Newport) $0.10 $0.08 $0.06 $0.0 $0.0 $0.00 9 9 96 9 98 99 00 01 0 03 0 0 06 0 08 09 10 11 Ex-Vessel Price ( $/lb PacFIN-Newport) Notes and Observations on Whiting Ex-vessel Prices Ex-Vessel prices show similar trends as revenues. After taking into account the world recession in 008-011, ex-vessel prices increasing since 003 even as total harvests increasing too.
. Whiting Export Markets 10 Whiting H&G Exports (Million Lbs) 100 0 0 9 9 96 9 98 99 00 01 0 03 0 0 06 0 08 09 10 11 Whiting H&G Exports-lbs (Million Lbs) 60,000 H&G Exports Major Markets (Metric Tons) GERMANY RUSSIAN FEDERATION UKRAINE CHINA SOUTH KOREA JAPAN Other 0,000 0,000 30,000 0,000 10,000 0 $1.30 H&G and Surimi Export Prices $1.10 $0.90 $0.0 $0.0 $0.30 9 9 96 9 98 99 00 01 0 03 0 0 06 0 08 09 10 11 Export Prices (S/lb) H&G Whiting Export Prices (S/lb) Pollock Surimi
Notes and Observations on Export Markets Exports of H&G Whiting started increasing trend in 001. Export market growth starts in 001 but increases significantly after 003; especially exports to Germany, Russian Federation, and Ukraine. Relative difference between H&G export prices and Pollock surimi prices start to narrow in 001. Prices become equivalent in 008. 6
6. Related Species Ex-vessel Price Trends 0 West Coast Ex-vessel Price Trends (Relative to 199) %relative to 199 30 0 10 9 9 96 9 98 99 00 01 0 03 0 0 06 0 08 09 10 11 Crab Sardine Petrale Sole Whiting Sablefish Shrimp $/lb $0. $0.0 $0.1 $0.10 $0.0 $0.00 Pollock and Whiting Ex-vessel Prices ($/lb) 9 9 96 9 98 99 00 01 0 03 0 0 06 0 08 09 10 Pollock Whiting Notes and Observations on Other Related Species Ex-vessel Price Trends Price levels species shown vary. For example, 011 ex-vessel prices for Dungeness Crab ($.), and Sablefish ($3.1) are much higher than Petrale Sole ($1,1), Shrimp ($0.0), Sardines ($0.09), and whiting ($0.11). Because of these differences it is hard to discern trends by plotting prices on a common $/lb scale. Therefore prices are scaled using 199 price levels as the basis. For example, the 008 ex-vessel price for whiting ($0.110) is approximately 3 of the 199 price level ($0.031). Except for shrimp, species generally show rising trends relative to 199. However, both whiting and sablefish show the most significant rising trends, especially since 003. Price trend for whiting mirrors that of pollock caught Pollock off Alaska except for 010 when whiting price increased but pollock decreased.
. Participation- Active Numbers of Permits and Shoreside Entities 0 Number of Active Participants by Sector 0 30 0 10 0 9 9 96 9 98 99 00 01 0 03 0 0 06 0 08 09 10 11 Shorebased Processing Enities Number of Shorebased Permits Landing Whiting Number of Participating Mothership Catcher Permits Notes and Observations on Participation Active = permit fished or entity received fish that year. Whiting is landed either at buying stations or directly at processing sites. Analysts have related landings to processors based on buying station linkages, where known. If a company processes whiting at multiple sites, landings have been summed to reflect a single processing entity. Number of permits fished includes buyback permits in years prior to 00 (Buyback occurred in December 003). Twenty two buyback permits were involved in Pacific whiting. (See Entry and Exit Analysis below) Number of active shorebased processing entities increased from in 00 to 1 in 010. All sectors had lower numbers of active participants in 011 than in 010. 8
8. Ex-vessel Revenues per Permit $1,000 Whiting Ex-vessel Revenues Per Permit $800 $1,000 $600 $00 $00 $- 9 9 96 9 98 99 00 01 0 03 0 0 06 0 08 09 10 11 Revenues/Shorebased Permit ($1000) Mothership Catcher Vessel Revenues per Permit ($1000) Notes and Observations on Ex-Vessel Revenues per Permit Revenues per mothership catcher-vessel permit generally increasing after 003 and in line with sector allocation. Revenues per shorebased permit similar to mothership trend except for 008. In 008, the whiting fishery was closed early because the best available information on August 18, 008 indicated that the. metric tons (mt) canary rockfish bycatch limit for the non-tribal whiting fisheries was projected to be reached. The shorebased fishery was not re-opened while unused shorebased allocations were distributed to the mothership and catcher processor sectors during the fall and winter. Relatively high revenues per permit in 011 reflect increases in OY/ACL, high ex-vessel prices, and decreases in the number of active permits. Permit revenue also likely high due to the Trawl Rationalization Program. Shorebased permits were able to fish quota pounds of other vessels. Mothership catcher-vessel permits were able to fish the catch history assignments of other permits. 9
9. Community Shares of Whiting Harvests-Trends 199-1998 1999-00 NEW AST 3% LWC % COS WPT % CRS % ERK Other 1% Other AST 9% LWC % WPT 19% NEW 1% Other COS 3% ERK % CRS % AST % LWC % 006-010 NEW 3 WPT 9% COS 3% Other CRS 3% ERK 3% AST % 011 NEW % WPT 1% COS % CRS LWC 3% ERK Other Notes and Observations on Community Whiting Harvest Trends Over the years the following have been the major communities receiving whiting:, Westport (WPT), Ilwaco (LWC), Astoria (AST), Newport (NEW), Coos Bay (COS, Crescent City (CRS), and Eureka (ERK). Other includes Blaine, and Brookings. Newport, Astoria and Westport are the major centers of shorebased whiting processing. The proportion of landings by community has varied over several periods: 199-1998; 1999-00; 006-010; and 011. (Note that these estimates do not include tribal whiting.) In the early years Newport was the lead port, but Westport has been steadily increasing. In 011 Astoria was the lead port. None of the California ports received landings in 011. 10
10. Entry and Exit Patterns- Permits Landing Shorebased Whiting Shorebased Permit Whiting Participation 199-011 Year Participated New Participant New Active Participant Dummy Identifiers 9 9 96 9 98 99 00 01 0 03 0 0 06 0 08 09 10 11 9-11 Current Permits 101 18 10 18 103 18 10 18 10 18 106 18 10 18 108 18 109 18 110 1 111 1 11 1 113 16 11 16 11 16 116 1 11 1 118 1 119 1 10 1 11 1 1 1 13 1 1 13 1 13 16 1 1 11 18 11 19 11 130 10 131 9 13 8 11
Shorebased Permit Whiting Participation 199-011 Year Participated New Participant New Active Participant Dummy Identifiers 9 9 96 9 98 99 00 01 0 03 0 0 06 0 08 09 10 11 9-11 Current Permits 133 8 13 8 13 8 136 13 6 138 139 10 11 1 13 1 1 3 16 3 1 3 18 3 19 3 10 3 11 3 1 13 1 1 16 1 18 19 160 1 161 1 16 1 163 1 16 1 16 1 1
Notes and Observations on Permit s Shorebased Whiting Participation 9 permits fished the maximum number of years (18) 30 permits fished 10 or more years. permits did not fish after 003. 6 permits entered after 003 3 permits are New Active Participants these permits left the shorebased fishery in either 199 or 199 and did not return until 00 or later. For completeness, activity of the buyback, lapsed, and combined permits is shown below: Dummy Identifiers 9 9 96 9 98 99 00 01 0 03 0 0 06 0 08 09 10 11 9-11 01 9 0 03 6 0 0 06 3 0 3 08 09 10 11 1 1 13 1 1 1 1 1 16 1 1 1 18 1 19 1 0 1 1 1 1 3 1 Notes and Observations on Buyback Permit Participation The buyback permit portion of shorebased landings from 199 to 003 was about %. 13
1. Entry and Exit Patterns-Mothership Catcher-Vessel Permits Mothership Permit Participation 199-011 Year Participated New Participant New Active Participant Dummy Identifiers 9 9 96 9 98 99 00 01 0 03 0 0 06 0 08 09 10 11 9-11 Current Permits 301 18 30 18 303 18 30 18 30 1 306 1 30 1 308 16 309 1 310 1 311 1 31 1 313 13 31 1 31 11 316 10 31 10 318 10 319 10 30 9 31 8 3 8 33 6 3 6 3 6 36 3 38 3 39 3 330 3 331 3 33 1
Mothership Permit Participation 199-011 Year Participated New Participant New Active Participant Dummy Identifiers 9 9 96 9 98 99 00 01 0 03 0 0 06 0 08 09 10 11 9-11 333 33 33 336 1 33 1 338 1 339 1 Buyback, Lapsed or Combined Permits 01 0 03 1 0 0 1 06 3 Notes and Observations on Mothership Catcher Vessel Permit Participation permits fished the maximum number of years (18). 19 permits fished 10 years or more. 11 permits did not fish after 003. 1 new entrant after 003 current permits entered after 003 after leaving in 199 or 199. 1
13. Entry and Exit Patterns-Shorebased Processing Entities Shorebased Whiting Processor Entity Participation 199-011 (Entity May Include More Than One Processing Site or Buying Station) Year Participated New Participant New Active Participant Dummy Identifiers 9 9 96 9 98 99 00 01 0 03 0 0 06 0 08 09 10 11 9-11 01 18 0 18 03 18 0 1 0 16 06 1 0 8 08 8 09 10 6 11 6 1 13 1 1 16 3 1 3 18 19 0 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 6 1 1 8 1 Notes and Observations on Shorebased Processor Entity Participation 3 shorebased entities processed whiting the maximum number of years. 6 shorebased entities processed whiting 1 years or more. 11 shorebased entities did not process whiting after 003. 8 shorebased entities entered the fishery after 003 1 shorebased entity re-entered the fishery after leaving in 199. 16
Alaska AK AK, 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 1 6 6 6 6 3 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 1 6 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 1 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 3 3 6 6 6 6 6 1 1 1 1 1 3 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 6 6 6 1 6 1 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 1 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 1 6 6 6 1 1 1 1 1 6 1 6 1 6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 1 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 AK 1. Cross-Participation by Vessels in West Coast and Alaska Fisheries Combined Shorebased, Mothership and Alaska Participation Mothership (MS) 3 (AK) 1 & MS Key: Shoreside (SW) & SW 6 SW & MS SW & MS Dummy Identifiers Permit status Year of Participation 9 9 96 9 98 99 00 01 0 03 0 0 06 0 08 09 10 11 1 3 3 6 3 P01 current P0 current P03 current P0 current P0 current P06 current P0 current P08 current P09 current P10 current P11 current P1 current P13 current P1 current P1 current P16 current P1 current P18 current P19 current P0 current P1 current P current P3 current P current P current P6 current P current P8 current P9 current P30 current P31 current P3 current P33 current P3 current Permits With 18 Years History Permits With 1 Years History Permits With 16 Years History 1
Alaska AK AK, 6 6 AK 1 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 1 6 6 6 1 1 1 6 1 1 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 3 3 6 6 Combined Shorebased, Mothership and Alaska Participation Mothership (MS) 3 (AK) 1 & MS Key: Shoreside (SW) & SW 6 SW & MS SW & MS Dummy Identifiers Permit status P3 current P36 current P3 current P38 current P39 current P0 current 6 P1 current P current P3 current P current 3 1 P current P6 current P current P8 buyback P9 current P0 buyback P1 buyback P current P3 buyback P current P current P6 buyback 3 1 P current P8 current P9 current P60 current P61 current P6 buyback P63 buyback P6 lapsed P6 lapsed P66 current P6 current P68 buyback Year of Participation 9 9 96 9 98 99 00 01 0 03 0 0 06 0 08 09 10 11 Permits With 1 Years History Permits With 1 Years History Permits With 13 Years History Permits With 9 to 1 Years History Permits With to 8 Years History Permits With Less Than 3 Years History 18
3 Alaska AK AK, AK 1 Combined Shorebased, Mothership and Alaska Participation Mothership (MS) 3 (AK) 1 & MS Key: Shoreside (SW) & SW 6 SW & MS SW & MS Year of Participation Dummy Identifiers Permit status 9 9 96 9 98 99 00 01 0 03 0 0 06 0 08 09 10 11 P69 current P0 buyback P1 current P current P3 current P current 6 P buyback P6 buyback P combined P8 buyback P9 buyback P80 combined P81 current P8 buyback P83 buyback P8 buyback P8 buyback P86 buyback P8 current P88 current P89 current P90 current P91 buyback P9 buyback P93 buyback P9 buyback P9 combined Number participating each year: WC and AK WC only MS,SW&AK 11 9 9 1 1 13 11 8 3 1 1 13 1 1 13 MS&AK 11 13 10 11 10 10 10 6 9 9 8 6 6 SW&AK 1 8 8 10 9 1 1 11 10 8 8 6 6 MS&SW 9 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MS only 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 SW only 1 18 0 1 16 1 1 1 1 1 1 16 16 1 8 AK only 3 1 0 9 13 1 6 TOTAL 8 3 6 9 9 6 0 6 0 6 9 9 8 6 3 19
Notes and Observations on Vessel Cross-Participation permits entered the West Coast whiting fishery for the first time after the 003 control date (there are eight years of data after 003). Of the four entering the fishery after the control date, only two participated in more than two years. permits had no West Coast whiting fishery participation after 003 (i.e., they participated only in the 10 years prior to the control date). of these were no longer valid trawl permits after 003 (i.e., buyback, lapsed or combined permits). 1 permit had participation prior to the control date but only one year after the control date (in 00). The year with the lowest numbers of vessels participating in all three fisheries (Shorebased whiting, Mothership whiting and Alaska) was 003 (three vessels), followed by 00 and 00 (five vessels), 00 (seven vessels) and 001 (eight vessels). 00 was the year with the largest number of vessels participating only in Alaska fisheries (thirteen vessels). The next largest number was nine vessels in 00. Despite higher ex-vessel prices and new buyers, there was apparently little movement into or out of the whiting fishery after the 003 control date. 0
1. Allocations to AFA and Non-AFA Vessels under the Reallocation Alternatives No Action Alt 1 Alt Alt 3 Alt Shorebased Whiting Quota Share: AFA Vessels 1. 1. 0.8% 1.% 0.% Non-AFA Vessels 39. 39. 39.% 38.8% 39.% Mothership Whiting Catch History Share: AFA Vessels 91.1% 91.1% 91.% 91.% 9.9% Non-AFA Vessels 8.9% 8.9% 8.% 8.%.1% Combined Shorebased-Mothership Whiting (weighted) Quota : AFA Vessels 9.% 9.% 9.% 9.% 9.6% Non-AFA Vessels 8. 8. 8.1%.8%.% Notes and Observations on Allocations to AFA and Non-AFA Vessels Share of shoreside whiting quota allocated to the 30 AFA vessels associated with permits receiving initial allocations varies only slightly under the reallocation alternatives. Share of mothership whiting catch history allocated to the 30 AFA vessels associated with permits receiving initial allocations is highest under reallocation Alternative. 1