Valuing Beach Closures: An Application to the Texas Gulf Coast George R. Parsons Chris Leggett (IEC) Kevin Boyle (Virginia Tech) Ami Kang Southern Economics Association Meetings November 2007
Acknowledgement Funding for this project was provided by the Coastal Response Research Center www.crrc.unh.edu and the National Park Service 11/19/07 2
Purpose & Approach Purpose Value beach closures for damage assessment Monetary and Non-Monetary Terms Apply to Texas Coast with focus on Padre Island National Seashore Approach Random Utility Model Nested & Mixed Logit 11/19/07 3
Household Survey Phone-Mail-Phone Survey of Beach Use 2001 N = 884 Monthly from May - September Trip data ~ 2700 trips Demographic data Stratified Day & Overnight Monthly and Weekday/Weekend Values 11/19/07 4
Study Area Study Area 11/19/07 5
Stratification 11/19/07 6
65 Beaches Beach Definitions & Characteristic Data Field Trip, State Access Guide, Interviews 11/19/07 7
Beach Visits s by Beach (Day Trips) 200 180 Weighted Visits 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 PINS 20 0 Sabine Pass Galveston Freeport Port South Corpus Lavaca Padre Christi Island 11/19/07 8
Issues in Estimation Nested vs. Mixed Logit Nested for Baseline Paper Mixed for Non-Monetary Values Nested Logit Model Sensitivity Geographic Regions Vehicle Free/Gulf Month and Padre Month Interactions Calibration to NPS trips 11/19/07 9
Nested Logit Model 11/19/07 10
Scenarios for Welfare Analysis Closure 6 Padre Beaches 7 Galveston Beaches Other Advisory/Closure History Red Tide History 11/19/07 11
Coefficient Estimates Variable Estimate Coefficients t-statistic Site Characteristics (site utility): Trip Cost -.03-26.9 Trip Time -.13 2.08 Trip Time * Income -.005 3.74 Log Length.23 5.96 Gulf access.42 2.89 State park.05 0.22 Remote -.25 2.16 Vehicle free.49 3.72 Manual cleaning.47 3.71 Machine cleaning.91 8.30 Rest room.45 3.96 Lifeguards.29 2.44 Concession -.46 4.39 No fishing -.14 1.15 No swimming -.62 2.56 Red tide history -.92 4.18 Advisory/Closure history -.60-3.59 May*padre 1.28 2.42 June*padre 1.91 4.14 July*Padre 2.88 7.09 August*Padre.96 1.61 Sept*Padre 2.95 5.89 Individual Characteristics (no-tip utility): No-Trip Constant 5.22 10.49 Weekend -1.20 19.82 Kids -.09 1.46 Log Age.34 3.22 Retired -.15 1.10 Spanish -.22 2.22 High School.17 2.18 College -.10 1.21 Graduate School -.30 2.81 Full Time Job -.15 2.17 Female.09 1.51 Cottage -.24 2.29 Boat -.35 5.21 Pool.30 3.89 Fishing Equipment -.07 1.17 June.15 1.82 July.28 3.16 August.20 2.15 September.95 8.07 11/19/07 12
Welfare Estimates Month and Day of Week Total Loss Per Trip Loss Note: Calibration of Trips Number of Trips Displaced Weekday M a y $32,846 $ 2 8 1,168 June 43,894 2 9 1,540 July 53,360 3 0 1,820 August 37,015 2 8 1,333 Septembe r 26,302 3 0 887 Weekend M a y $103,754 $ 2 8 3,667 June 139,247 2 9 4,849 July 171,913 3 0 5,755 August 114,421 2 8 4,094 Septembe r 85,984 3 0 2,889 11/19/07 13
Welfare Estimates (cont.) Month and Day of Week Weekday July 6 Padre Sites Closed Red-Tide History Padre Total Loss $53,360 37,188 Per Trip Loss $30 2 7 Number of Trips Displaced 1,802 1,365 Advisory-Closure History Padre 27,191 2 7 1,048 8 Galveston Sites Closed 263,065 3 0 8,782 Weekend July 6 Padre Sites Closed Red-Tide History Padre $171,913 119,483 $30 2 7 5,755 4,359 Advisory-Closure History Padre 88,523 2 6 3,349 8 Galveston Sites Closed 852,875 3 0 27,259 11/19/07 14
Non-Monetary Compensation Non-Monetary vs. Monetary How different Cost of Compensation Measures of Success Kaldor-Hicks % Compensated Candidate Measures Beach cleaning Lifeguards Vehicle Free Rest Rooms 11/19/07 15
Hicks-Kardor Index 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Lifeguard Example 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 Applied Beach Number Percentage of people with full compensation 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 11/19/07 Applied Beach number 16 May/Weekend
Parting Comments Mixed-Logit with Participants Only Mid-Atlantic Application 1997 & 2005 11/19/07 17
Beach Characteristic Data Mean or % Site Variables of Beaches Beach length (mileage) 5.35 Dichotomous Yes/No Variables: Percent Gulf acce s s Beach is located on the gulf (not bay) 7 4 % State park Beach is part of a state park 6 % Remote Beach has a remote location 3 4 % Vehicle free Vehicles not allowed on beach 4 0 % Manual cleaning Beach is routinely manually cleaned 5 1 % Machine cleani n g Beach is routinely machined cleaned 5 5 % Rest room Restrooms located at beach 5 7 % Lifeguards Lifeguards at beach 26% Concession Concession located at beach 2 3 % No fishing Not listed as a fishing area in 2002 Texas 5 % Beach & Bay Access Guide No swimmi n g Not listed as a swimming area in 2002 9 % Texas Beach & Bay Access Guide Red tide history Beach has a recent history of red tide 1 8 % Advisory/Closure history Beach has a recent history of closures and/or advisories 1 7 % 11/19/07 18