Grain Market Outlook and Marketing Strategies Presented By: Brian Roach

Disclaimer: Futures/options trading involves substantial risk of loss and trading may not be suitable for all investors. You should fully understand those risks prior to trading. Past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. This material should be construed as the solicitation of an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy the derivative(s) noted in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be legal. These materials have been created for a select group of individuals, and are intended to be presented with the proper context and guidance. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Roach Ag Marketing, Ltd. Roach Ag. Marketing is not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact Roach Ag. Marketing designated personnel for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by Roach Ag. Marketing.

1 st Time in a Decade

Population Growing 1.18% per year 83 million new mouths annually 8.5 billion people by 2030 9.7 billion people by 2050

Income GDP $ 1,786 6.7% $ 616 7.1% $ 15,480 1.6% $ 541 5.0% $ 2,247-3.6% $ 480 5.7% $ 493-1.5% $ 567 7.1% $ 4,129-0.2% $ 2,900 2.3% CIA & Gallup

Income GDP $ 10,840 1.0% $ 478 6.9% $ 235 7.5% $ 1,124 6.2% $ 623 4.3% $ 14,098 1.9% $ 3,115 n/a $ 2,538 2.9% $ 416 2.2% $ 1,795 3.2% CIA & Gallup

9.6% in 2015 Source: Our World In Data

Soybean Fundamentals

1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 Million Tons 360.00 340.00 320.00 300.00 280.00 260.00 240.00 220.00 200.00 180.00 160.00 140.00 120.00 100.00 80.00 World Soybeans Production Source: USDA WASDE

1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 Million Tons 4.1% Average Annual Growth Rate for World Soybean Usage Since 2003-04. 360.00 340.00 320.00 300.00 280.00 260.00 240.00 220.00 200.00 180.00 160.00 140.00 120.00 100.00 80.00 Requires big crops World Soybeans Total Use 6 Billion People 7 Billion People Source: USDA WASDE

Source: USDA WASDE

8.7% less than last year Soybean & Corn Advisor Inc. Dr. Cordonnier

Source: Dr. Cordonnier

Source: USDA

Source: USDA & MDIC

100 Chinese Soybean Imports (million tons) 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Source: USDA

Source: USDA

1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 Ending Stocks (Days of Supply) 120.00 110.00 World Soybeans Ending Stocks Days of Supply Days of Supply Avg Farm Price 17.00 15.50 100.00 90.00 80.00 70.00 60.00 50.00 40.00 14.00 12.50 11.00 9.50 8.00 6.50 Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 30.00 5.00 20.00 3.50 Source: USDA WASDE

94-95 95-96 96-97 97-98 98-99 99-00 00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 Ending Stocks (Days of Supply) 80 US Soybean Ending Stocks Days of Supply Days of Supply Average Farm Price $16.00 $14.00 60 $12.00 40 20 $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 0 $0.00 Source: USDA WASDE

91.2 2018 Informa Est.

Feed Grain Fundamentals

1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 Million Tons 1400.00 1350.00 1300.00 1250.00 1200.00 1150.00 1100.00 1050.00 1000.00 950.00 900.00 850.00 800.00 750.00 700.00 World Coarse Grain Production Source: USDA WASDE

1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 Million Tons 2.80% Average Annual Growth Rate since 2003-04 1400.00 1350.00 1300.00 1250.00 1200.00 1150.00 1100.00 1050.00 1000.00 950.00 900.00 850.00 800.00 750.00 World Coarse Grain Total Use 6 Billion People Rate of climb has steepened since 03/04 7 Billion People Source: USDA

Source: USDA WASDE

14.6% less than last year. Soybean & Corn Advisor Inc. Dr. Cordonnier

US share of world corn exports down 2 years in a row U.S. supply has to compete with foreign production until a weather issue emerges. Source: USDA

15MT run rate Source: USDA

Chinese ethanol at 7.5 MT going to 11.5 MT in 18 Ending stocks down 31.2 over past 3 yrs (-28%) Source: USDA

Source: USDA & MDIC

Source: USDA

1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 Days of Supply 90.0 80.0 World Coarse Grains Ending Stocks Days of Supply Days of Supply USDA Average Price $9.00 $8.00 70.0 60.0 50.0 40.0 30.0 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 20.0 $2.00 10.0 $1.00 Source: USDA WASDE

89.2 2018 Informa Est.

Wheat Fundamentals

1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 3.60 World Wheat Yield (tons/hectare) 3.40 3.20 3.00 2.80 2.60 2.40 2.20 2.00 Source: USDA

Million Hectares World Wheat (Area Harvested) 235.0 230.0 225.0 220.0 215.0 210.0 205.0 Source: USDA

1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 Million Tons 775.0 750.0 725.0 700.0 675.0 650.0 625.0 600.0 575.0 550.0 525.0 500.0 World Wheat Production Source: USDA

1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 Million Tons 760.0 740.0 720.0 700.0 680.0 660.0 640.0 620.0 600.0 580.0 560.0 540.0 520.0 World Wheat Total Usage Source: USDA

Source: USDA

1991/92 1992/93 1993/94 1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 Days of supply 140.0 World Wheat Ending Stocks in Days of Supply Days of Supply Avg Farm Price $10.00 120.0 100.0 80.0 $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 60.0 $2.00 Source: USDA

94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98-99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Million Bushels 3000 US Wheat Production 2500 2000 1500 Source: USDA

94/95 95/96 96/97 97/98 98-99 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 Days of Supply 200 180 160 US Wheat Ending Stocks Days of Supply Days of Supply Farm Price $10.00 $9.00 $8.00 140 120 100 80 60 $7.00 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 40 $2.00 20 $1.00 Source: USDA

Bottom Line Plentiful Supplies of All Crops Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

How to improve your grain marketing accuracy Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

Selling Accuracy 14 of the last 16 years the Dec corn high came during a Roach Ag Sell Signal. 15 of the last 16 years for Nov soybeans Crop sales are best when our key market inputs are triggered. Roach Ag Sell Signals Money Flow Seasonality Cash Price vs. Forecasted Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.

Results

3/1 2 KMIs 3/9 3 KMIs 3/12 4 KMIs Sell Signals with 3 or 4 KMI boxes checked are typically one of the best selling opportunities of the crop year! 1/25 Sell Signal Triggers 1 KMI

3/05 4 KMIs 2/14 Sell Signal Triggers 2 KMIs 2/23 3 KMIs

1 Key Market Indicator 1 Key Market Indicator 2 Key Market Indicators 3 Key Market Indicators 3 Key Market Indicators Source: QST Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.

When Spec Funds are holding major net long positions, sales are better

Source: CFTC COT

Contracts 140,000 Managed Money Soybean Meal - Net Position 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0-20,000-40,000-60,000-80,000 Source: CFTC COT

Sell During the Selling Season

Highest soybean prices tend to come Dec-Jan during South American crop development and Mar-Aug during U.S crop development SA Crops US Crop Development 2006 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2006 -- 2007 545 593 667 662 698 757 756 737 773 824 854 842 2007 -- 2008 949 975 1062 1151 1258 1383 1351 1314 1334 1503 1504 1282 2008 -- 2009 1175 922 898 868 994 929 903 1018 1141 1199 1045 1061 2009 -- 2010 931 966 1012 1033 981 939 953 974 954 948 996 1023 2010 -- 2011 1065 1163 1256 1317 1395 1394 1360 1365 1357 1360 1362 1363 2011 -- 2012 1340 1214 1171 1144 1205 1256 1352 1441 1419 1419 1634 1680 2012 -- 2013 1676 1539 1448 1455 1419 1457 1445 1403 1438 1507 1420 1293 2013 -- 2014 1344 1287 1293 1330 1285 1348 1422 1485 1481 1408 1173 1067 2014 -- 2015 971 968 1032 1034 1002 994 981 972 954 959 999 921 2015 -- 2016 876 892 866 879 873 874 893 967 1061 1146 1049 983 2016 -- 2017 961 975 1003 1023 1032 1037 998 947 954 925 1001 948 = Money Flow Indicator in Top 75 th Percentile Red numbers indicate highest priced month of crop year Source: Futuresource Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

Highest corn prices tend to come Mar-Aug during key U.S crop development 7 of 11 years for corn when spec money flow most positive. Seasonality 2006 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2006 -- 2007 245 303 356 372 391 411 404 362 372 381 327 331 2007 -- 2008 354 358 382 427 489 516 547 593 601 700 646 549 2008 -- 2009 542 413 374 367 391 363 380 388 422 413 328 327 2009 -- 2010 325 372 391 402 386 363 368 354 368 347 378 409 2010 -- 2011 489 546 553 592 635 691 686 753 724 722 668 714 2011 -- 2012 694 632 627 606 631 640 648 633 601 600 759 803 2012 -- 2013 763 750 740 721 715 705 715 649 651 656 528 483 2013 -- 2014 460 439 423 430 427 450 485 505 490 444 379 363 2014 -- 2015 339 349 379 401 388 388 386 377 361 367 409 374 2015 -- 2016 379 383 370 371 362 366 364 375 391 413 348 333 2016 -- 2017 333 349 345 350 361 369 363 363 367 373 378 353 = Money Flow Indicator in Top 75 th Percentile Red numbers indicate highest priced month of crop year Source: Futuresource Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

Highest Chicago wheat prices tend to come Feb-July during key U.S. winter wheat development 8 of 11 years for Chicago wheat Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2006-2007 395 381 410 500 487 494 466 465 462 470 488 574 2007-2008 613 692 867 854 792 921 924 1059 1098 881 781 850 2008-2009 818 819 723 570 533 540 589 536 526 528 591 584 2009-2010 526 488 463 497 541 542 522 489 485 477 482 450 2010-2011 571 689 718 687 676 776 804 834 745 779 782 697 2011-2012 675 719 692 627 612 612 631 649 650 631 639 658 2012-2013 867 878 887 867 862 815 768 736 714 699 703 688 2013-2014 663 642 653 689 651 629 574 596 679 686 686 597 2014-2015 542 552 502 511 544 610 544 516 507 503 492 521 2015-2016 547 501 490 507 495 474 473 460 464 471 465 475 2016-2017 419 407 391 409 403 397 424 437 427 420 430 454 = Money Flow Indicator in Top 75 th Percentile Red numbers indicate high price of crop year Seasonality v

2017-18 USDA Price Estimates Corn $3.15-$3.55 Soybeans $9.00-9.60 Wheat $4.60 -$4.70 Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

$4 corn and $10+ returned every year past 5 Burdensome stocks may reduce this upside Corn and soybean rallies from pre-harvest lows 5 year average corn 13 60 cents 14 80 cents 15 92 cents 16 85 cents 17 59 cents Average : 75 ¼ cents/bu 5 year average soybeans 13 $1.95 14 $1.91 15 $1.55 16 $3.09 17 $1.43 1/2 Average : $1.99 / bu Source: Futuresource Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

Market Plans Plan Cash flows Use 3-4 KMI Triggers Build a marketing tool box the farm is comfortable. Execute Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

Source: USDA Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Commodity trading involves the risk of loss, and you should fully understand those risks before trading.

Farm Direct Pricing Contracts Growers facing the challenge of pulling the trigger on sales can allocate initial percentages of your production geared to diversify selling risk. Roach Ag teamed up with FCStone to offer a Roach Ag + managed bushel program and other unique methods to sell your grain. Ask your merchandiser or call our trade desk to learn more. More unique contracts in pipeline designed to create value and flexibility to face any buyer. Sell Signal push sales where we take bushels to market on our sell signals for your farm. Carry sales sell bushels for delivery late in the crop year helping to pay for storage while capturing carry premiums. Averaging contract we offer a window to market bushels from April 1 st to July 15 th. FCStone delivers to any buyer. Source: INTL FCStone QST/USDA/CFTC/GeoGrain/MRCI Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results

Cattle Fundamentals

Source: USDA

Hog Fundamentals

December 2017 Hogs and Pigs Source: USDA

Source: USDA

Source: USDA & INTL FCStone Inc

Roach Ag Marketing 568 East Yamato Road Boca Raton, FL 33431 800-622-7628 Mpool@roachag.com http://www.roachag.com