NATIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE PROGRAM UPDATE GAY GILBERT, ADMINISTRATOR UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE USDOL/ETA JUNE 27, 2018
UI NATIONAL UPDATE v Program Highlights v Quick Look at the Data v Strategic Investments/Initiative v The New Permanent RESEA v FY 2018 Budget v What s Next? 2
PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS v Lowest workload since the 60s v States experiencing constrained funding, limiting staff capacity v States continue to struggle with meeting performance standards and integrity measures, and to successfully implement data validation v Many, if not most, states are not ready for the next recession v IT modernization still needed in a majority of states v Disaster preparedness highlighted by 2017 hurricanes v RESEA is now codified in the Social Security Act 3
2017 HURRICANES State/ Territory FEMA Funding Total # DUA Claims Disaster Related Claims # Regular UI Claims # Total Claims Puerto Rico $14,349,978 ---* ---* 11,592 Florida $6,747,422 7,237 35,160 42,397 Texas $25,488,162 26,284 143,068 169,352 Georgia $331,085 314 2,410 2,724 Virgin Islands $2,825,640** 1,493*** 2,462*** 4
HURRICANE TAKEAWAYS v Many/most, states have not automated the DUA program v State redundant systems are not sufficient v Alternative solutions for supporting states with significant damage are needed Ex: Ability for helper state(s) to access the disaster state s system to support claims taking v And hurricane season is upon us once again 5
A Quick Look at the Data 6
Unemployment Rates by State Seasonally Adjusted, April 2017 (U.S. = 3.9%) Rates in % 0 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 5 5 to 8 Source: USDOL/BLS 7
First Payments in the Regular Program 12 1,400,000 Total Unemployment Rate (%) 10 8 6 4 TUR (L) First Payments (Moving Average, R) 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 First Payments 2 200,000 0 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0 8 Source: US DOL/BLS and US DOL/Office of Unemployment Insurance
12 Average Duration on UI in the Regular Program 24.00 Total Unemployment Rate (%) 10 8 6 4 TUR (L) Average Duration (R) 20.00 16.00 12.00 8.00 Average Duration (Weeks) 2 4.00 0 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0.00 Source: US DOL/BLS and US DOL/Office of Unemployment Insurance
70% U.S. Recipiency Rates (All Programs, Annual, 1978-2017) 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Calendar Year 10
90 First Quarter 2018 Recipiency Rate (Insured Unemployed / Total Unemployed) Insured Unemployed / Total Unemployed (%) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 States with under 26 weeks of Unemployment Compensation Available 28 States are under the Average Recipiency Rate Average: 32.6% 10 0 ND MN IA MA VT HI NJ MT CT WI RI PA CA IL AK ME ID NY DC WY OR MI WV DE WA OH MO NV NE KY KS IN CO AR MD NH TX UT AL SD NM OK VA SC TN MS GA LA AZ NC FL States 11
Exhaustion Rate in the Regular Program 12 60 Total Unemployment Rate (%) 10 8 6 4 TUR (L) Exhaustion Rate (R) 50 40 30 20 Exhausiont Rate (%) 2 10 0 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0 12 Source: US DOL/BLS and US DOL/Office of Unemployment Insurance
TOTAL BORROWING OVER TIME AND PROJECTED BORROWING THROUGH END OF FY 2020 End of FY Borrowing 50 45 40 35 Billions $ 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Actual Private Borrowing Forecast Private Borrowing Forecast 13
Weeks Claimed, Civilian Labor Force, and TUR 18 180,000 16 160,000 14 12 Civilian Labor Force (R) 140,000 120,000 % 10 8 TUR (L) 100,000 80,000 Thousands 6 60,000 4 40,000 2 Weeks Claimed (R) 20,000 0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0 14
2.5 Average High Cost Multiple, 2007 & 2017* 2 AHCM 2007 AHCM 2017 1.5 1 0.5 0 OR WY VT MS UT SD NE OK AK ID MT IA LA WA NC ME PR HI NM DC KS AR FL NH GA MI NV VA MN TN AL ND MD SC WI MO RI CO DE NJ AZ KY PA IL CT NY MA WV IN OH TX CA VI Source: DOL/OUI * 2017 AHCM is Preliminary
Trust Fund Solvency Report This annual publication provides an opportunity to evaluate and compare each state s Unemployment Insurance trust fund reserve. Highlights form the 2018 report include: 24 states have reached what is considered the minimal level of adequate solvency As of Dec 2017, one state and one jurisdiction still had outstanding Federal loans and face a potential FUTA credit reduction in 2018 Three states have outstanding private borrowing of over $3.9 Bil. For 2018 thirty states meet the eligibility criteria for interest-free borrowing The report can be found here: https://oui.doleta.gov/unemploy/docs/trustfundsolvreport2018.pdf 16
APPROPRIATIONS FOR STATE UI ADMINISTRATION PER 2.0 MILLION AWIU Adjusted into constant 2005 dollars Dashed Line displays inclusion of Y2K funds in FY98 and FY99 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 $ Billions 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Fiscal Year 17
Millions 500 450 State Supplemental Funding for UI 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: National Association of State Workforce Agencies Fiscal Year 18
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IPIA UI IMPROPER PAYMENT RATE Improper Payments Information Act (7/1/2016 6/30/2017) Estimated Overpayment Rate (OP) 12.11% Estimated Underpayment Rate (UP) 0.39% Total Improper Payment Rate (OP + UP) 12.50% Total Estimated Amount Improperly Paid $4.066 B Dollar amounts are in billions. Reported in the 2017 DOL Agency Financial Report 22
Overpayment Root Causes by Percentage of Dollars Overpaid July 1, 2016 June 30, 2017 23
UI IMPROPER PAYMENT RATE Fraud and Nonfraud Overpayments, and Underpayments 13% 12% 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013* 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fraud Nonfraud Underpayment IPIA 2013 adjusted rate for recoveries = 9.32% 24
UI INTEGRITY CENTER v National Integrity Training Academy v Integrity Knowledge Exchange v Best/Promising Practices v Model BPC Operations Blueprint v State Integrity Services/Business Process Analysis v Integrity Data Hub v Suspicious Actor Repository v External Data Cross-match (Identity Verification) v Data Analytics Tool v State Consultation/Business Process Analysis v Behavioral Insights Messaging Tools 25
STATE INFORMATION DATA EXCHANGE SYSTEM (SIDES) v SIDES Employer Response Study (November 2017) Evaluated the quality of employer responses to initial requests received via SIDES to those not using SIDES Five states participated in the Study Quality scores were significantly higher for SIDES (91.75 percent) and E- Response (94.64 percent) compared to initial claims using non-sides methods (63.34 percent) Employer response rates higher for SIDES (100 percent) and E-Response (99.73 percent) versus non-sides methods (81.35 percent) v Commitment to Continuous Improvement April 2018 Symposium Sessions for States and Employers April 2018 SIDES messaging toolkit released June 2018 national webinar for states planned 26
UI INTEGRITY LEGISLATIVE PACKAGE v In ETA s FY2018 and FY 2019 Budgets v Require States to use SIDES v Require cross match with SSA s/other prisoner database v Allow the Secretary of Labor greater authority to require UI corrective actions v Allow States to retain up to 5 percent of UI over-payments for program integrity use v Require States to use penalty and interest collections solely for UI administration 27
REEMPLOYMENT SERVICES & ELIGIBILITY ASSESSMENT PROGRAM (RESEA) Codified in Section 306 of SSA, Bipartisan Budget Act (PL 115-123) Summary: RESEAs are in-person meetings between a UI claimant and appropriately trained AJC Staff Member intended to: 1. Reduce UI claim duration through improved employment outcomes by providing labor market and career information, a reemployment plan, providing information and access to reemployment services through American Job Centers, and, as needed, referrals to training and education 2. Ensure UI program integrity by assessing and confirming the continued UI eligibility of RESEA participants. Availability: This voluntary program currently operates in 52 states and jurisdictions. 28
MEASURING SUCCESS FOR RESEA v Improving employment outcomes of individuals receiving UI and to reducing the average duration of receipt of benefits v Strengthening program integrity and reducing improper payments through detection and prevention of improper payments v Promoting alignment with the broader vision of WIOA of increased program integration and service delivery v Establishing RESEA as an entry point for UI claimants into other workforce system partners programs. 29
NEW PROVISIONS IN THE RESEA LAW v Requirement for a State Plan Assurances of proper notice & consequences for nonparticipation, reasonable scheduling, description of RESEA activities, how the state s program will meet the evidence requirements in the statute, and information from evaluations conducted v New Funding Formula to be developed with State consultation v Requirement to Use Interventions/Service Delivery Strategies that are Evidence-based v Use of a percentage of the funds to reward states with strong performance in reducing 30
RESEA EVIDENCE REQUIREMENTS v Modeled after legislation for HHS home visiting program. v States must use grant funds only for interventions/service delivery strategies demonstrated to reduce claim duration by improving employment outcomes for participants. v To expand the scope of evidence-based interventions, beginning in 2023, states must use a certain percentage of funds (the % ratchets up in future years) for interventions with a high or moderate causal evidence ratings that show demonstrated capacity to improve employment and earnings outcomes for participants. v Also, beginning in 2023, any state interventions without a high or moderate causal evidence rating must be under evaluation at the time of use. States may use up to 10% of their funding for this purpose. 31
FUNDING PROVISIONS v v For Fiscal Years 2022 2027, Congress is authorized to make adjustments to the discretionary spending limits, the allocations to the Committees on Appropriations, and the appropriate budget aggregates to reflect additional new budget authority. Adjustments may not be made in excess of: v FY 2022 - $133 million v FY 2023 - $258 million v FY 2024 - $433 million v FY 2025 - $533 million v FY 2026 - $608 million v FY 2027 - $633 million Through use of a cap adjustment, authorizes (but does not necessarily appropriate) significant funding increases (from $117 million baseline) overtime as result of expected savings due to reduced duration v FY 2019 - $33 million increase v FY 2020 - $58 million increase v FY 2021 - $83 million increase 32
OTHER REEMPLOYMENT STRATEGIES v My Reemployment Plan https://rc.workforcegps.org/resources/2016/10/03/05/28/ My_Reemployment_Plan v Workforce Connect Tools Next Steps http://itsc.org/pages/wf_connect.aspx v My Reemployment Plan Online v Case Management Module v Pathway to Reemployment Framework Improving State Work Search Requirements https://rc.workforcegps.org/resources/2016/10/03/05/36/ Pathway_to_Reemployment_Framework 33
FY 2019 PRESIDENT S BUDGET v Administrative Funding v Integrity Center v Integrity Proposal v Paid Parental Leave 34
WHAT S NEXT? v RESEA Implementation v Continued focus on UI improper payments v New NPRM on Drug Testing Expected Soon v Work Search Guidance v UI ITSC under new leadership (Ben Peirce) and refocusing on ways to support UI IT modernization v Work to modernize the Interstate Connection Network (ICON) Hub 35
???QUESTIONS??? COMMENTS 36