Rotary Club of Pocatello Economic Overview. April 28, 2016

Similar documents
Zions Bank Economic Overview Meridian Chamber of Commerce. May 2, 2017

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Municipal Conference Economic Overview August 13, 2015

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview Utah Bankers Association Emerging Bank Leaders Conference. November 9, 2017

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview Coldwell Banker Commercial Group. November 6, 2017

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview Cache Valley Home Builders Association. April 12, 2017

Zions Bank Economic Overview. March 14, 2017

Zions Bank Economic Overview Logan Rotary Club. March 16, 2017

Zions Bank Economic Overview West Point Economic Summit. March 30, 2017

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Zions Bank Economic Overview

Economic Forecast to Professional Republican Women Association. January 5, 2017

Zions Bank Economic Overview. December 5, 2017

Understanding the New Trump Economy Economic Overview. November 17, 2016

Zions Bank Economic Overview Utah Government Finance Officers Assoc. April 21, 2017

Zions Bank Economic Overview

More of the Same; Or now for Something Completely Different?

Colorado Counties Treasurers Association

Regional Economic Conditions

Cement & Construction Outlook

2016 River Use Statistics -by Steve Sullivan

The 2019 Economic Outlook Forum The Outlook for MS

Traffic Safety Facts. State Traffic Data Data. Overview

Overview of the Regional Economy

Anatomy of a Jackpot: Characteristics of Purchasers of Large Jackpot Lottery Tickets

SEASON FINAL REGISTRATION REPORTS

Understanding the Regional Divergence in Adult Mortality in the United States

Target Shooting by Hunters and Their Use of Shooting Ranges: 1975, 1991, and 2011

The MS Economic Outlook The Fall Forum

Overview of the Regional Economy

Babson Capital/UNC Charlotte Economic Forecast. May 13, 2014

CREATIVE DESTRUCTION AND THE KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY

U.S. and Colorado Economic Outlook National Association of Industrial and Office Parks. Business Research Division Leeds School of Business

Wenlin Liu, Senior Economist. Stateof Wyoming. Economic Analysis Division State of Wyoming 1

2009 National Pharmacist Workforce Study. Visual Data

States. Postal Abbreviations LEARN THE. AND. by Joy A. Miller

Economic Growth in the Trump Economy

Your Texas Economy. Current through: Tuesday, Nov 20, 2018

Kevin Thorpe Financial Economist & Principal Cassidy Turley

SECTION SEVEN. Characteristics of People with IDD and Staff in Large Public Residential Facilities

Education Committee Economic Background and Issue Review

Growth in Moscow: A Study of Modest Population Growth and Rising Economic Prosperity*

Your Texas Economy. Last updated: January 30, 2018

2012 Payne County Economic Outlook

SUMMARY MEMBERSHIP ANALYSIS FOR THE STATE OF. Trends of first-time 4 to 8 year-old male ice hockey players to

Federal Regulatory Update WTBA/WisDOT Contractor/Engineer Conference

Naples, Marco Island, Everglades Convention and Visitors Bureau May 2018 Visitor Profile

SUMMARY MEMBERSHIP ANALYSIS FOR THE STATE OF. Trends of first-time 4 to 8 year-old male ice hockey players to

SUMMARY MEMBERSHIP ANALYSIS FOR THE STATE OF. Trends of first-time 4 to 8 year-old male ice hockey players to

Minimum Wages By State, Municipality and County

17t h Ann u a l Re p o r t on th e ( ) POLICY STUDY

Gay Gilbert, Administrator Unemployment Insurance USDOL/ETA June 22, 2016

SUMMARY MEMBERSHIP ANALYSIS FOR THE STATE OF. New Hampshire. Trends of first-time 4 to 8 year-old male ice hockey players to

Legislative Economic Briefing

Walgreens Pharmacy West Fairview Ave., Boise, ID o Hours: Open 24 hours

Northwest Economic Research Center College of Urban and Public Affairs Forecast Breakfast Economic Outlook

Economic Overview. Melissa K. Peralta Senior Economist April 27, 2017

2019 Economic Outlook: Will the Recovery Ever End?

Bikes Belong Survey: The Size & Impact of Road Riding Events

USA TRIATHLON MEMBERSHIP REPORT TABLE OF CONTENTS

Are Highways Crumbling? State Performance Summaries,

colorado.edu/business/brd

2015 Economic Forecast & Industry Outlook. Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC October 8, 2014

Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

Agricultural Weather Assessments World Agricultural Outlook Board

Larry Kessler, Ph.D. Boyd Center for Business & Economic Research University of Tennessee

Nevada County Population Projections 2013 to 2032 Based On The Last Estimate Year of 2012

SHOOTING IN AMERICA. An Economic Force for Conservation 2018 EDITION

Produce Safety Alliance Course and Trainer Totals through September 19, 2018

Population of Puerto Rico (Millions of people)

The Burden of HPV Related Cancers in Kentucky

MAINTAINING MOMENTUM:

Warm Mix Asphalt in the United States: From Evolution to Revolution

Analyzing the Energy Economy Michael Plante Senior Research Economist

Conduent EDI Solutions, Inc. Eligibility Gateway 270/271 Payer Guide Medicaid

Economy On The Rebound

WORKFORCE LOCAL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (LAUS)

National and Regional Economic Outlook. Central Southern CAA Conference

Wisconsin Concrete Pavement Association. Ed Sullivan, SVP & Chief Economist

WORKFORCE LOCAL AREA EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (LAUS)

Market Insights. June 30, 2018

Market Insights. March 29, 2019

Competitiveness

2018 KENTUCKY FACT BOOK

2018 Annual Economic Forecast Dragas Center for Economic Analysis and Policy

North Carolina Competitiveness

Briefing on the State of the State. presented to the. SCAA Schuyler Center for Analysis and Advocacy

8:00 am 5:00 pm NASRO Basic Course Music Road Resort Hotel. 8:00 am 5:00 pm NASRO Basic Course - ** Music Road Resort Hotel

Potential Solutions for Mercury Control in the Cement Industry Portland Cement Association Meeting

Xerox EDI Eligibility Gateway 270/271 Payer Guide

The Erie Economy: Performance, Opportunities, and Challenges

Featured Fish-Week ofjuly 16th

Texas Economic Outlook: Recovery in 2010 Keith Phillips Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas San Antonio Office

Utility Monitoring Central Archive

Transcription:

Rotary Club of Pocatello Economic Overview April 28, 2016

Economic Headwinds National and international uncertainty Continued low energy prices Depressed business investment Unstable inflation outlook Consumer spending and consumer confidence remain low

Uncertainty at the National and International Level

Payroll Change 000 s National Job Growth Improving 500 300 8.7 Million Jobs Lost 100-100 -300-500 13.3 Million Jobs Recovered -700-900 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 U.S. Unemployment Rates Dropping 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 5.0% in Mar 3.0 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Underemployment vs. Unemployment 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 U-6 (Underemployed) U-3 (Unemployment) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Long-Term Unemployment Remains High Million Persons 8.0 Unemployed for more than 27 weeks 6.0 4.0 2.0 March 2016: 2.2 m 0.0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and American Bankers Association

1950 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Seasonally adjusted 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Labor Force Participation Rate % 68 Among Lowest in Over 35 Years Mar 2000 67.3% 66 64 62 60 Apr 1978 63.0% Mar 2016 63.0% 58 56

Mar 2012 Jun 2012 Sep 2012 Dec 2012 Mar 2013 Jun 2013 Sep 2013 Dec 2013 Mar 2014 Jun 2014 Sep 2014 Dec 2014 Mar 2015 Jun 2015 Sept 2015 Dec 2015 Mar 2016 Consumer Confidence Lower than One Year Ago 120.0 Above 110 indicates economic prosperity 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 50.0 Source: U.S. CCI from The Conference Board

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Percent Consumer Spending is Under Par 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0-1.0-2.0 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Expansion Outlook Still Below Normal 30% Next Three Months Good Time to Expand 20% 10% 1986-2007 Average 0% 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 Sources: National Federation of Independent Business and American Bankers Association

The Fed is Under Pressure Japan Central Banks with Negative Interest Rates European Central Bank Sweden Denmark Switzerland -0.10% -0.40% -0.50% -0.65% -0.75% Source: global-rates.com

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 USD Euro compared to U.S. Dollar $1.60 $1.50 $1.40 $1.39 $1.30 $1.20 $1.10 $1.00 PARITY $1.05 $0.90 $0.80 Source: Investing.com

Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 $ Per Barrel Oil Prices Are Down $120.00 $110.00 $108 $100.00 $90.00 $80.00 $70.00 $60.00 $50.00 $40.00 $30.00 $20.00 $26 Sources: Pre-2016 data from U.S. Energy Information Administration; Post-2016 from Investing.com

2007 Source: Baker Hughes Note: Total count includes oil and gas rigs 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2,200 Total U.S. Rig Count 2,000 1,800 1,931 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 440

Federal Funds Rate Forecast (March 2016) 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 Long Run Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Fed Funds Rate Longer Run Projections 4.50 4.25 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.25 3.00 Average Sources: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

This Uncertainty is Causing Disruptions to Many Communities

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Thousands of Employees Wyoming Employment Still Not Fully Recovered from Recession Loss 320 300 Gain of 5,000 jobs from low in 2009 280 260 240 Loss of 20,000 jobs from 2008-2009 220 200 Total Nonfarm Employment Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm seasonally adjusted Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand

WY Industries - Employment Gains Percent Change in Wyoming Employment by Industry: Mar 2015 to Mar 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining -20.8% Construction -7.1% Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. -2.0% -3.2% -2.6% -4.5% -0.5% Ed. & Health Serv. 2.6% Leisure & Hospitality -3.0% Other Services Government Total: -3.2% 0.0% 1.3% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Seasonally Adjusted

WY Industries Seeing Growth Total Change in Wyoming Employment by Industry: Mar 2015 to Mar 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining -5,400 Construction -1,700 Manufacturing -200 Trade, Trans., Utilities -1,800 Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. -500-100 -100 Ed. & Health Serv. 700 Leisure & Hospitality -1,100 Other Services Government Total: -9,300 0 900-6,000-5,000-4,000-3,000-2,000-1,000 0 1,000 2,000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Note: Seasonally Adjusted

Wyoming Employment Change Rates By County March 2015 to March 2016 State Rate = -3.4% 5.0% or more 3.0% to 4.9% 1.0% to 2.9% Teton -0.1% Lincoln -1.0% Uinta -8.6% Park -0.8% Sublette -5.5% Fremont -2.0% Sweetwater -5.4% Big Horn -3.9% Washakie -2.0% Hot Springs -2.9% Sheridan -2.4% Campbell -6.7% Crook -2.8% Johnson -4.6% Weston -1.9% Natrona -8.5% Converse -4.2% Carbon 5.5% Albany 2.2% Platte -4.4% Niobrara -4.0% Goshen -0.9% Laramie -1.9% 0.0 to 0.9% Loss Source: Wyoming Department of Workforce Services Note: Not seasonally adjusted

Economic Tailwinds Strong population growth in the Intermountain West Idaho job growth the best in the country Unemployment low and dropping Construction activity on the rise Agriculture supports a strong state economy

Idaho Population 11 th Fastest Growing in U.S. CA 0.9% OR 1.5% WA 1.5% NV 1.9% ID 1.2% AK 0.2% UT 1.7% AZ 1.5% MT 0.9% WY 0.3% CO 1.9% NM 0.0% HI 0.8% Percent Change: 2014 to 2015 U.S. Rate = 0.8% ND 2.3% SD 0.6% NE 0.7% TX 1.8% KS 0.3% OK 0.8% MN 0.6% IA 0.5% MO 0.3% AR 0.4% WI 0.2% LA 0.5% IL -0.2% MS 0.0% MI 0.1% IN 0.3% TN 0.8% AL 0.3% 1.5% or more OH 0.1% KY 0.3% 0.8% to 1.4% (at or above U.S. rate) 0.3% to 0.7% 0.0% to 0.2% Population Loss WV -0.3% VT -0.1% PA 0.1% NC 1.0% SC 1.4% GA 1.2% VA 0.7% FL 1.8% NH 0.2% NY 0.2% ME -0.1% DC 1.9% CT -0.1% DE 1.1% MD 0.5% MA 0.6% RI 0.1% NJ 0.2% Source: U.S Census Bureau

1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total Population Idaho Population and Components of Change 1,800,000 1,654,930 60,000 1,600,000 50,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 9,097 10,925 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0-10,000 Components of Population Change 0-20,000 Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population Source: Zions Bank analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data

Idaho Population Growth Rates By County 2014 to 2015 State Average = 1.2% Boundary 3.1% Bonner 0.8% Kootenai 2.1% Benewah -0.3% Latah 0.5% Nez Perce 0.3% Lewis -0.9% Shoshone 0.3% Clearwater -0.2% Idaho 0.4% Increase of 3.0% or Greater Adams -0.1% Valley 3.0% Lemhi 0.1% Increase of 1.2% to 2.9% Increase of 0.5% to 1.1% Increase of 0.0% to 0.4% Population Loss Washington -0.2% Payette Gem 0.3% 0.5% Canyon 2.2% Ada 1.7% Owyhee 0.0% Boise 3.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau Elmore -1.5% Camas 2.7% Gooding 1.1% Twin Falls 1.6% Custer -1.4% Blaine 0.7% Lincoln -0.1% Jerome 0.1% Cassia -0.1% Butte -4.2% Minidoka 0.8% Power -0.4% Clark 0.7% Jefferson 0.6% Bingham -0.5% Oneida 1.8% Bannock 0.3% Franklin 0.6% Fremont -0.4% Madison Teton 0.5% 2.5% Bonneville 1.4% Caribou -0.7% Bear Lake -0.6%

U.S. Generational Distribution by County Source: dadaviz.com analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data

ID Generational Population By County As of July 1, 2014 Boundary Bonner Kootenai Benewah Shoshone Latah Clearwater Nez Perce Lewis Idaho Lemhi Baby Boomers (Ages 50-69) Adams Valley Generation X (Ages 30-49) Generation Y (Ages 15-29) Washington Payette Gem Canyon Ada Boise Elmore Camas Custer Blaine Butte Clark Jefferson Fremont Madison Teton Bonneville Generation Z (Ages 0-14) Gooding Lincoln Bingham Jerome Minidoka Power Bannock Caribou Owyhee Twin Falls Cassia Oneida Bear Lake Franklin Source: dadaviz.com analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data

CA 2.6% OR 3.3% WA 3.2% NV 2.8% Idaho Employment Growth AK -0.5% ID 3.6% UT 3.3% AZ 3.1% Highest in the Nation Percent Change in Employment for States: Mar 2015 to Mar 2016 U.S. Rate = 2.0% MT 0.7% WY -3.2% HI 2.9% CO 2.8% NM 0.3% ND -4.5% SD 1.0% NE 1.6% KS 0.0% TX 1.6% OK -0.4% MN 1.1% IA 1.0% MO 0.9% AR 2.2% WI 1.8% LA -0.7% IL 1.3% MS 1.8% 3.0% or more MI 2.3% IN 1.3% TN 3.2% AL 1.2% OH 1.8% KY 2.0% GA 3.1% WV -0.7% VT 1.4% PA 1.4% NC 2.5% SC 2.7% VA 2.8% FL 2.9% 2.2% to 2.9% (at or above the U.S. rate) 1.0% to 2.1% 0.0% to 0.9% NH 1.6% NY 1.4% ME 1.0% DC 1.3% CT 0.9% DE 2.6% MD 2.4% MA 1.8% RI 1.8% NJ 2.0% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Loss

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Thousands of Employees Idaho Employment at New Highs 800 Gain of 93,000 jobs since low in 2010 700 600 500 Loss of 59,000 jobs from 2007-2010 400 Total Nonfarm Employment Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm seasonally adjusted Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand

Idaho Employment Gains and Losses Percent Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: Mar 2015 Mar 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining -8.8% Total: 3.5% Construction Manufacturing 4.2% 3.6% Trade, Trans., Utilities 1.7% Information 0.0% Financial Activity 2.4% Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. 3.9% 4.2% Leisure & Hospitality 8.3% Other Services Government 2.5% 3.5% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Idaho Department of Labor, Total Nonfarm Seasonally Adjusted

Idaho Industries Seeing Growth Total Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: Mar 2015 Mar 2016 Ntl. Res. & Mining -300 Total: 22,900 Construction 1,500 Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities 2,200 2,300 Information 0 Financial Activity 800 Prof. & Bus. Serv. 3,100 Ed. & Health Serv. 4,100 Leisure & Hospitality 5,400 Other Services 800 Government 3,000-1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Source: Idaho Department of Labor, Total Nonfarm Seasonally Adjusted

Source: Idaho Department of Labor, Seasonally Adjusted Total Nonfarm Employment Idaho Employment Change Rates By County Mar 2015 to Mar 2016 State Rate = 2.3% 3.0% or more 2.3% to 2.9% 1.0% to 2.2% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Washington Boundary -1.8% Bonner 0.7% Kootenai 2.6% Benewah -0.6% Latah -1.6% Nez Perce 2.9% Lewis -2.2% Adams 1.0% Clearwater 0.0% Idaho -2.2% Valley 3.0% -1.9% Custer Clark 4.0% 0.6% Payette Gem 1.2% 2.5% Canyon 2.7% Ada 2.8% Owyhee 3.9% Shoshone 2.0% Boise 2.9% Elmore -5.0% Camas 0.8% Gooding 3.2% Twin Falls 3.3% Lemhi 0.3% Blaine 0.0% Lincoln -0.2% Jerome 3.5% Minidoka 2.5% Cassia 2.5% Butte 4.1% Power -0.4% Jefferson 4.1% Bingham 0.4% Oneida 4.2% Bannock 1.9% Fremont 3.2% Madison Teton 3.5% 0.8% Bonneville 4.6% Caribou -4.8% Bear Lake Franklin -0.2% -0.7%

Idaho Among the Lowest Unemployment OR 4.5% CA 5.4% WA 5.8% NV 5.8% ID 3.8% UT 3.5% AZ 5.4% MT 4.3% Rates in the Country WY 5.2% CO 2.9% NM 6.2% March 2016 U.S. Rate = 5.0% ND 3.1% SD 2.5% NE 3.0% KS 3.9% OK 4.4% MN 3.7% IA 3.8% MO 4.2% AR 4.0% WI 4.5% IL 6.5% MS 6.3% MI 4.8% IN 5.0% TN 4.5% AL 6.2% OH 5.1% KY 5.6% GA 5.5% WV 6.5% VT 3.3% PA 4.9% NC 5.5% SC 5.7% VA 4.0% NH 2.6% NY 4.8% ME 3.4% DC 6.5% CT 5.7% DE 4.4% MD 4.7% MA 4.4% RI 5.4% NJ 4.4% AK 6.6% TX 4.3% LA 6.1% 3.9% or less 4.0% to 4.5% FL 4.9% Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics HI 3.1% 4.6% to 4.9% (at or below the U.S. rate) 5.0% to 5.9% 6.0% or more

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Idaho vs. U.S. Unemployment Rates 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 U.S. Idaho Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Idaho Unemployment Rates By County March 2016 State Rate = 3.8% Boundary 5.6% Bonner 6.1% Kootenai 4.7% Benewah 7.0% Latah 3.3% Nez Perce 3.4% Lewis 8.2% Shoshone 7.7% Clearwater 8.1% Idaho 5.9% 3.2% or lower Adams 9.9% Valley 5.9% Lemhi 3.1% 3.3% to 3.8% 3.9% to 5.5% 5.6% to 6.9% 7.0% or greater Washington 5.7% Clark Custer 2.3% 5.5% Payette 4.7% Canyon 4.3% Gem 4.8% Ada 3.3% Owyhee 4.8% Boise 5.8% Elmore 7.2% Camas 4.6% Gooding 3.4% Twin Falls 3.2% Blaine 3.5% Lincoln 5.0% Jerome 2.9% Cassia 3.0% Butte 3.9% Minidoka 3.1% Power 4.4% Jefferson 3.1% Bingham 3.6% Bannock 3.4% Oneida 4.1% Fremont 3.6% Madison Teton 2.6% 3.1% Bonneville 3.1% Caribou 4.0% Bear Lake Franklin 5.3% 4.4% Source: Idaho Department of Labor

Idaho Personal Income Growth Lower than Nation OR 5.8% CA 6.3% WA 4.7% NV 5.4% AK 3.8% ID 3.4% UT 5.5% AZ 4.6% Percent Change in Personal Income : 2014-2015 U.S. = 4.4%; ID = 3.4% MT 4.4% WY 1.7% HI 4.6% CO 5.1% NM 3.7% ND -0.2% SD 0.0% NE 1.7% KS 2.5% TX 4.3% OK 2.3% MN 3.8% IA 0.6% MO 3.0% AR 3.9% WI 3.5% LA 3.4% IL 3.7% MI 4.3% IN 4.0% TN 4.8% MS 2.9% AL 4.1% 5.0% or more OH 3.1% KY 4.5% GA 5.3% WV 2.2% VT 3.0% PA 3.3% NC 4.8% SC 5.1% VA 4.3% FL 5.2% NH 4.2% NY 4.0% 4.4% to 4.9% (at or above the U.S. rate) 3.0% to 4.3% 0.0% to 2.9% Decrease ME 3.2% DC 4.8% CT 3.1% DE 3.9% MD 4.1% MA 4.7% RI 3.7% NJ 4.0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Thousands U.S. Monthly Housing Starts New Housing Units by Permit Type 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 Total Single Family Units Multi-Family Units Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S. Census Bureau; seasonally adjusted

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Idaho Residential Construction Activity 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Single-Family Units Multifamily Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S. Census Bureau

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Millions ID Value of New $3,500 Residential Construction $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 Single Family Units Multi Family Units Total Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting as a Percentage of U.S. GDP 2014 Agriculture Mining Utilities Construction 1.2% 2.6% 1.7% 3.7% Manufacturing 12.0% Wholesale Trade Retail Trade 6.0% 5.8% Transportation/Warehousing Information 2.9% 4.6% Financial Services 20.2% Professional & Business Services 12.0% Educational & Health Services 8.2% Arts/Entertain/Rec/Accom/Food Services Other Services 2.2% 3.8% Government 12.9% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting as a Percentage of Idaho GDP 2014 Agriculture 7.0% Mining Utilities 1.5% 1.6% Construction 4.1% Manufacturing 12.7% Wholesale Trade 6.0% Retail Trade 7.8% Transportation/Warehousing Information 1.9% 2.9% Financial Services 17.8% Professional & Business Services Educational & Health Services 8.4% 9.4% Arts/Entertain/Rec/Accom/Food Services Other Services 2.1% 3.3% Government 13.4% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Contribution to US Agriculture Industry By State 2014 Contribution State 2014 Ranking 16.6% California 1 st 5.5% Texas 3 rd 3.7% Washington 7 th 2.1% Idaho 16 th 1.9% Oregon 19 th 1.6% Colorado 24 th 1.0% Arizona 31 st 1.0% New Mexico 32 nd 0.4% Utah 39 th 0.4% Wyoming 40 th 0.2% Nevada 45 th Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Note: Data unavailable for Delaware and Rhode Island

United States Nebraska South Dakota Iowa North Dakota Idaho Kansas Montana Arkansas Wyoming Minnesota Agriculture Real Value Added to State GDP $3,500.00 $3,286 $3,250 Top 10 States Per Capita 2014 $3,000.00 $2,500.00 $2,403 $2,173 $2,000.00 $1,728 $1,722 $1,500.00 $1,220 $1,000.00 $874 $849 $778 $500.00 $422 $0.00 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Note: Data unavailable for Delaware and Rhode Island

Idaho Market Value of Agricultural Products Sold (In Thousands of Dollars) Source: U.S. Department of Agriculture; 2012 Census Survey Note: Total slightly higher than individual amounts shown due to information withheld to avoid disclosing data for individual operations

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Millions of Dollars Idaho Net International Exports $7,000 $6,000 $5,899 $6,113 $5,784 $5,000 $4,704 $4,988 $5,150 $5,136 $4,000 $3,721 $3,880 $3,260 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Millions of Dollars Idaho Exports: Top 5 Industries $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Computers & Electronics Food Chemicals Primary Metal Mfg Agricultural Products

Idaho Exports Sectors with Significant Changes: 2004-2014 Commodity Share of Total 2004 Share of Total 2014 Change in Share 2004-2014 Percent Change 2004-2014 Food & Kindred Products Primary Metal Manufacturing Transportation Equipment 8.4% 15.1% 6.7% 217% 0.2% 5.8% 5.6% 4650% 1.4% 4.6% 3.1% 465% Wood Products 0.7% 3.5% 2.8% 768% Machinery 3.9% 2.5% -1.3% 16% Paper 4.6% 2.5% -2.1% -5.0% Computers & Electronics 65.5% 43.9% -21.6% 18% Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Idaho Economic Indicators 2015-2017 Population 1.4 1.3 1.2 Nonfarm Employment 2.0 2.3 3.1 Unemployment Rate 4 3.8 3.8 Personal Income 3.8 7.3 8.2 Home Prices 3 3.5 6.1 Gross State Product 3.8 4.3 5.4 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2015e 2016f 2017f Source: Moody s Analytics e = estimate f = forecast

Robert Spendlove Economic and Public Policy Officer Email: Robert.Spendlove@zionsbank.com Phone: 801-560-5394 Zions Bank, A Division of ZB, N.A. Member FDIC. Content is offered for informational purposes only and should not be construed as tax, legal, financial or business advice. Please contact a professional about your specific needs and advice. Content may contain trademarks or trade names owned by parties who are not affiliated with ZB, N.A. Use of such marks does not imply any sponsorship by or affiliation with third parties, and ZB, N.A. does not claim any ownership of or make representations about products and services offered under or associated with such marks.