The Governance-Conflict Trap in the ESCWA Region Håvard Hegre Håvard Mokleiv Nygård Department of Political Science, University of Oslo Centre for the Study of Civil War, PRIO May 31, 2011 Hegre & Nygård (2011) Governance and Conflict May 31, 2011 1 / 14
Overview Governance is relatively poor in the ESCWA region How we measure governance Poor governance increases risk of conflict relapse... and conflict leads to poor governance Improvement in governance may lead to conflict reduction Hegre & Nygård (2011) Governance and Conflict May 31, 2011 2 / 14
Conflict trends in ESCWA and the world Since 1990, a declining trend in number of conflicts. An increasing fraction of conflicts are conflict recurrences Figure: Trends in number of active conflicts in the world and the ESCWA region. Internal (left panel) and international or internationalized internal (right panel) # World 0 10 20 30 40 Internal Conflicts, 1960 2009 0 1 2 3 4 5 # ESCWA 0 2 4 6 International Conflicts, 1960 2008 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 Conflicts, World Conflicts, ESCWA 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 Conflicts, World Conflicts, ESCWA Source: Uppsala Conflict Data Program Hegre & Nygård (2011) Governance and Conflict May 31, 2011 3 / 14
Battle deaths, in ESCWA and the world ESCWA conflicts have been particularly lethal Figure: Trends in number of battle deaths in the WORLD and the ECSWA region. Internal and international conflicts # Battledeaths 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 Battle Deaths, 1960 2008 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 Battledeaths, World Battledeaths, ESCWA Source: Lacina & Gleditsch 2005 Hegre & Nygård (2011) Governance and Conflict May 31, 2011 4 / 14
How to measure quality of governance Governance is a multifaceted concept. Seven dimensions of governance index of governance Components: Formal political institutions (democracy/autocracy): SIP measure Civil liberties (Freedom House) Corruption (Transparency International) Military influence in politics (ICRG) Bureaucratic quality (ICRG) Country Policy and Institutional Assessment index (World Bank) World Governance Indicators (World Bank) Forms an index of governance ranging from 0 (worst) to 1 (best) Hegre & Nygård (2011) Governance and Conflict May 31, 2011 5 / 14
Governance and development: ESCWA governance poor relative to comparable countries Figure: Governance and infant mortality in ESCWA countries and the world. governanceindex 0.2.4.6.8 1 Qatar Kuwait United Arab Emirates Bahrain Oman Lebanon Jordan Syrian Saudi Arab Arabia Republic Bahamas Brazil Egypt, Arab Rep. Sudan Iraq Yemen, Rep. India Somalia Benin Mozambique 1 2 3 4 5 logged infant mortality Source: World Development Indicators 2010 and our governance data Hegre & Nygård (2011) Governance and Conflict May 31, 2011 6 / 14
Governance indicators ESCWA countries perform poorly relative to other developing countries according to most governance indicators Figure: Governance indicators; ESCWA (left panel) and other developing countries (right panel) Average governance indicators scores Average governance indicators scores 0.5 1 0.5 1 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Corruption (left axis) Bureaucratiq quality (left axis) Civil liberties (left axis) Military in politics (left axis) CPIA (left axis) Democracy (right axis) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Corruption (left axis) Bureaucratiq quality (left axis) Civil liberties (left axis) Military in politics (left axis) CPIA (left axis) Democracy (right axis) Hegre & Nygård (2011) Governance and Conflict May 31, 2011 7 / 14
Governance outcomes Repression levels are also high, but education and income levels high Figure: Governance outcomes; ESCWA (left panel) and other developing countries (right panel) Average governance and outcomes indicators Average governance and outcomes indicators r_limr 0 1 2 3 4 5 0.5 1 r_limr 0 1 2 3 4 5 0.5 1 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Infant Mortality (left axis) Governance (right axis) Repression (left axis) Education (right axis) Infant Mortality (left axis) Governance (right axis) Repression (left axis) Education (right axis) Hegre & Nygård (2011) Governance and Conflict May 31, 2011 8 / 14
Governance and conflict relapse Statistical analysis indicates that poor governance increases risk of conflict relapse (but not conflict onset) Repression also increases risk of conflict Conflict increases risk of conflict and amount of repression Figure: Estimated risk of conflict recurrence Risk of Relapse 0.01.02.03.04 0 5 10 15 20 25 Years after Conflict Low Gov Low Gov, 90 pctile High Gov High Gov, 90 pctile Hegre & Nygård (2011) Governance and Conflict May 31, 2011 9 / 14
Three categories of conflict-affected countries Most conflict in a few ESCWA countries: Israel, Palestine, Iraq and Sudan We group countries in categories based on income and conflict history Low-income conflict countries: Yemen and Sudan Medium-income conflict countries: Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine Countries suffering from the immediate spill-overs from conflict: Egypt, Jordan, Syria Countries suffering from more distant spill-overs from conflict: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE Hegre & Nygård (2011) Governance and Conflict May 31, 2011 10 / 14
Governance across different conflict categories Conflict countries have poorer governance, and the gap is widening Figure: Governance scores: poor conflict countries (left panel) and countries suffering from immediate spill-over (right panel) Governance Indicators, ConflictCountryPoor Governance Indicators, ImmediateSpillover 0.5 1 0.5 1 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Civil liberties Democracy index Governance index 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Civil liberties Democracy index Governance index Hegre & Nygård (2011) Governance and Conflict May 31, 2011 11 / 14
Conflict countries develop more slowly than other countries Figure: Reduction in IMR 1965 89 vs. IMR in 1965 (left) and 1990 2009 vs. IMR in 1990 (right). Area of circles are proportional to per-capita fatalities in conflict Percentage reduction in IMR 1965 1989 0% 50% 70% 80% Yemen Egypt Afghanistan Oman Saudi Arabia Sudan Syria Vietnam Brazil Uganda Chile Iraq Jordan China Zimbabwe S Korea Kuwait Venezuela Lebanon Spain Singapore Israel United States Japan New Zealand 200 100 50 25 12 Poverty in 1965: Infant mortality rate Percentage reduction in IMR 1990 2009 0% 30% 50% 70% Afghanistan Yemen Sudan Uganda Egypt Brazil Zimbabwe Syria Vietnam Lebanon China Oman Jordan Saudi Arabia Venezuela Qatar S Korea Chile UAE Bahrain Kuwait Israel Singapore Spain Japan New Zealand United States 200 100 50 25 12 6 3 Poverty in 1990: Infant mortality rate Source: Hegre & Holtermann, forthcoming: Poverty and conflict Hegre & Nygård (2011) Governance and Conflict May 31, 2011 12 / 14
How to break the vicious circle? Vicious circles can be turned into virtuous ones, as in Latin America If Sudan s governance could improve to the level of Lebanon, the risk of conflict recurrence would be reduced by 50% The various aspects of good governance are correlated and may substitute for each other Any governance reform that is feasible has potential to reduce risk of conflict relapse Democratization movements have great potential if successful May decrease international tensions Provide entry-points for other reform initiatives from below Some external factors help: Globalization, economic growth, reform in neighboring countries Hegre & Nygård (2011) Governance and Conflict May 31, 2011 13 / 14
Governance and conflict relapse Is the ESCWA region exceptional? The region has had more conflict than its level of development would suggest Figure shows predicted share of countries in conflict and average predictor values, ESCWA and North Africa region, 1995 2050 4: West Asia and North Africa 80% CI 80% CI Minor or major conflict Major conflict 0 25 50 75 100 0.12.24.36.48.6 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year IMR (per 1000) Sec. education (% without) Youth proportion (%) Source: Hegre et al. 2011: Predicting armed conflict Hegre & Nygård (2011) Governance and Conflict May 31, 2011 14 / 14