WHITNEY HANDICAP Wagering Guide 866.88XPRESS (866.889.7737) National gambling support line 800.522.4700
Hello Race Fans! Welcome to the first edition of Xpressbet s Whitney Handicap Wagering Guide! The Whitney is one of the marquee races on Saratoga s loaded summer docket, showcasing the nation s premier older horses in a nine-furlong contest with significant Breeders Cup ramifications. To help you solve the handicapping puzzle of the Whitney, we ve produced this handy Wagering Guide so that you can bet the race with confidence. Our Whitney Handicap Wagering Guide was written with you, the bettor, in mind. Our contributors have decades of industry experience, and each approaches handicapping the races from a different, unique perspective. Inside this Guide, you ll find Race Analysis, Main Contender Profiles and potential Value Plays from each of our contributors, along with $100 Wagering Strategies to help you play the race intelligently. At Xpressbet, we do more than simply process your wagers. To us, it s important that we arm our customers with the best information available. Take a look at our free Daily Picks, access the products in our Pro Shop and read our free Wagering Guides. Hopefully they ll help you cash a few wagers. Check back in the coming weeks, as we ll also be producing free Wagering Guides for the Alabama Stakes (August 17) and the Travers Stakes (August 24). Bet the Whitney Handicap with Xpressbet on your computer or mobile device on Saturday, August 3, and we hope our Wagering Guide will help you pick the winner. Good Racing Luck! The Xpressbet Team 866.88XPRESS (866.889.7737)
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Expert Analysis - The Jockey by Sean Clancy - Saratoga Special Analysis: Hello, Johnny. Hello, Brian. The two jockeys who hold the race in the balance line up in stall 3 and stall 4. John Velazquez on Cross Traffic and Brian Hernandez on Fort Larned, speed and more speed. Fort Larned exits a front-running win in the Stephen Foster. Cross Traffic exits a nose defeat in the Met Mile. Hernandez will want separation, Velazquez won t give him anything easy. The key is the first quarter mile, who commits and who sits. Nobody rejoiced at the draw more than Velazquez who has the advantage, breaking outside Hernandez. If you ve seen Velazquez ride for the last decade or two, you know he makes definitive moves and puts his grip on a race early. Jose Lezcano aboard Ron the Greek has a simple task, wait and try to vacuum up the crumbs. Julien Leparoux, breaking from the rail on Successful Dan, could split the frontrunners and the closers. If he does, he wins. Main Contenders: Fort Larned and Cross Traffic will attract the most attention. Fort Larned roars in off a dominant win in the Stephen Foster and Cross Traffic shows up each time and has the Pletcher factor. Cross Traffic has more speed than Fort Larned, but it s not 8 furlongs, it s 9, so it needs to be rationed, at least a little. The money will land on both. Ah, if you could bet your money a quarter mile into the race, once you see who finds the sweet spot third, maybe fourth as the leaders dog each other on the front. The only true wire-to-wire winner of the Whitney in the last 20 years was Commentator, who led all the way in both of his Whitney wins, 2005 and 2008. Value Plays: It s easy to envision a pace meltdown up front, as Cross Traffic tries to go a furlong farther than he s ever been and Fort Larned tries to find peace on the lead. As a jockey, you want to have enough speed to find a spot just off of them. Breaking from the rail, Successful Dan could secure that spot, third or fourth. Edgar Prado on Mucho Macho Man holds the key to that spot as well, breaking outside Successful Dan, he can hold him in and make life miserable for Leparoux. Toss the Foster, trust Charlie LoPresti and get value on Successful Dan. Of the last 22 Whitney winners, only one Bullsbay in 2009 made his previous start in California. (10th, 2009 Hollywood Gold Cup) $100 Wagering Strategy: Keep it simple, bet $100 win on Successful Dan and hope you get anything close to his Morning Line odds of 12-1
Expert Analysis - The Horseman by Joe Clancy - Saratoga Special Analysis: Some people say the racing season at Saratoga doesn t really start until the Whitney. They re wrong, but what a race. All eight trainers believe they re live in the Grade 1, Saturday s 10th race and the race of the meet thus far. Main Contenders: Ian Wilkes produced an upset with Fort Larned last year, but won t surprise anyone with the 7-5 choice this time. Wilkes didn t like a work here July 20, so dialed up another three days later. Not exactly a schedule you would write down, but nice audible. The trainer corrected a problem. Today is about the race, not two works in a week. Todd Pletcher sends Cross Traffic beyond a mile for the first time and the 4-year-old will be close early. Two turns at Saratoga, against the best horses of his life? Tough task. Kathy Ritvo hit the reset button with Mucho Macho Man off a pull-up in the Sunshine Millions. He got a five-month break and a relocation to Fair Hill, where the big, long-striding dude used the Tapeta and dirt tracks to full advantage. Ritvo even shipped to Saratoga early, and worked him a mile a few weeks ago. He s had a break, and a race, and will be tough. Successful Dan appears to be thriving at Saratoga with steady gallops and eye-opening works that have Charlie LoPresti talking confidently. Value Plays: Favored in last year s Whitney, Ron the Greek will be about triple the price today. Trainer Bill Mott has tried everything this year (with starts in Florida, California, West Virginia and Kentucky), and gotten good efforts each time. The veteran s best race puts him there. Phil Gleaves was thinking about a minor stakes that didn t fill for Csaba, and pouncing on the bigger names late in the meet in the Woodward. Well, you know what they say about best laid plans. Csaba has called Saratoga home for weeks and will be as right as he can be to try for a huge upset. He can hit the board at a big number. $100 Wagering Strategy: $20 win/place Mucho Macho Man ($40) $10 exacta box Mucho Macho Man, Fort Larned, Successful Dan ($60) No Whitney winner has carried more than 123 pounds to victory since Criminal Type toted 126 en route to a win in the 1990 rendition. Six fillies have won the Whitney, but no filly/mare has run in the race since Serena s Song finished 2nd behind Mahogany Hall in the 1996 version.
Expert Analysis - The Handicapper by Tom Law - Saratoga Special Analysis: The Whitney Invitational Handicap is usually one of the best races of the Saratoga meet and this year is no exception. The field features the defending champion and Breeders Cup Classic winner, last year s Travers winner, last year s Big Cap winner and a classic-placed multiple graded stakes winner. To make matters even more confusing Todd Pletcher is represented by a lightly raced 4-year-old who ventures two turns for the first time off huge runner-up finishes in 1-mile races at Belmont Park. The big question is how easy will 2012 Whitney winner and BC Classic winner Fort Larned get things on the front end. If the answer is easy early, it should be over quickly. If not the race could set up for a closer. Main Contenders: Fort Larned upset last year s Whitney at 7-1 odds but comes in this year with a target squarely in the middle of jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. s back thanks to that win and a smashing victory last time in the Stephen Foster at Churchill. Cross Traffic was narrowly beaten while setting the pace in the Met Mile last time and figures to keep Fort Larned company up front, but takes his first steps beyond a mile in competition. Alpha, dead-heat winner of last year s Travers, is the only other member of the field besides Fort Larned with a victory at Saratoga and he s 3-for-3 locally. Value Plays: Successful Dan and Alpha figure to be the best value in the race at doubledigit odds and give the look of legitimate longshots. The former was compromised significantly by a speed-favoring track last time out while chasing Fort Larned in the Stephen Foster but has trained spectacularly at Saratoga for the Whitney. Alpha is unbeaten at Saratoga and needs to be considered in the 8-1 range or higher. Mucho Macho Man and Ron the Greek might be too short considering their better days are behind them. $100 Wagering Strategy: $10 Exacta part wheel Fort Larned with Successful Dan and Alpha [$20] $5 Trifecta part wheel Fort Larned with Successful Dan, Alpha, Ron the Greek and Cross Traffic with Successful Dan, Alpha, Ron the Greek, Cross Traffic and Fast Falcon [$80] Lawyer Ron stopped the clock in 1:46.64 in the 2007 version of the Whitney, not only setting a new stakes record, but also the new 1 1/8 mile track record at Saratoga. That record still stands. The last 3yo to win the Whitney was Easy Goer, in 1989.
Whitney Handicap Facts 6 of the last 14 Whitney winners were crowned Champion Older Male that same year: Blame (2010) Lawyer Ron (2007) Invasor (2006) Left Bank (2002) Lemon Drop Kid (2000) Victory Gallop (1999) Gary Stevens and John Velazquez lead all active jockeys with 3 Whitney victories: Stevens Commentator (2005), In Excess (1991), Criminal Type (1990) Velazquez Commentator (2008), Lawyer Ron (2007), Left Bank (2002) 6 fillies have won the Whitney: Personal Ensign (1988) Lady s Secret (1986) Gallorette (1948) Esposa (1937) Bateau (1929) Black Maria (1928) In the 85-year history of the Whitney, only 8 horses older than the age of 5 have won the Whitney: 8 Kelso (1965) 7 Commentator (2008) 6 Tizway (2011), Fio Rito (1981), Kelso (1963), Round View (1949), Gallorette (1948), Bolingbroke (1943) 6 active trainers have each won the Whitney twice no active trainer has won the race more than twice: Shug McGaughey Easy Goer (1989), Personal Ensign (1988) D. Wayne Lukas Criminal Type (1990), Lady s Secret (1986) H. James Bond Tizway (2011), Will s Way (1997) LeRoy Jolley Track Barron (1985), Nearly On Time (1977) Nick Zito Commentator (2005, 2008) Todd Pletcher Lawyer Ron (2007), Left Bank (2002) 3 of the last 7 Whitney winners have gone on to win the Breeders Cup Classic: Fort Larned (2012) Blame (2010) Invasor (2006) Recommended Picks First Second Third Fourth w Successful Dan Fort Larned Mucho Macho Ron the Greek Man