Risk-Taking in International Politics

Risk-Taking in International Politics

Risk-Taking in International Politics Prospect Theory in American Foreign Policy R OSE MCDERMOTT Ann Arbor

Copyright by the University of Michigan 1998 All rights reserved Published in the United States of America by The University of Michigan Press Manufactured in the United States of America c Printed on acid-free paper 2001 2000 1999 1998 4 3 2 1 No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, or otherwise, without the written permission of the publisher. A CIP catalog record for this book is available from the British Library. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data McDermott, Rose, 1962 Risk-taking in international politics : prospect theory in American foreign policy / Rose McDermott. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-472-10867-0 (cloth : acid-free paper) 1. United States Foreign relations Decision making. 2. International relations Decision making. 3. Risk-taking (Psychology) I. Title. JZ1480.M35 1998 327.73'001'9 dc21 97-21113 CIP

For my mentors Robert Jervis and Philip Zimbardo with admiration, affection, and appreciation

Contents Acknowledgments ix Chapter 1. Introduction 1 2. Prospect Theory 15 3. The Iranian Hostage Rescue Mission 45 4. The Decisions about Admitting the Shah 77 5. The U-2 Crisis 107 6. The 1956 Suez Crisis 135 7. Conclusions 165 Notes 187 Bibliography 225 Index 233

Acknowledgments This work would not have been possible without the sustained support and guidance of numerous friends and advisors. My most profound and overriding debts lie with my mentors, Robert Jervis and Philip Zimbardo, to whom this book is humbly dedicated. Robert Jervis s advice, insight, and support have critically informed every stage of this process. His integrity is unmatched, his loyalty unwavering, and his brilliance unsurpassed. Without his work, mine would not have been possible. Philip Zimbardo, in addition to triggering my initial interest in psychology, has been unfailing in his enthusiasm, unparalleled in his faith, and unconditional in his friendship. In addition, I owe a deep and abiding intellectual debt to the late Amos Tversky, whose ideas inspired this work, and whose training and generosity I have bene ted from enormously. I would like to thank Chip Blacker for his faith, help, and inspiration in the earliest stages of this project. I am deeply grateful to Jonathan Mercer, John Sullivan, Martin Sampson, and two anonymous reviewers for very helpful and challenging comments and criticisms on earlier versions of this manuscript. I am grateful to Lynn Eden for her consistent support and encouragement throughout this work. I express my thanks to Charles Myers, Kevin Rennells, and the University of Michigan Press for patience, skill, and responsiveness. I want to thank Margaret Padden for her help with the gures. Steve Fish, in addition to offering extremely thoughtful comments on the manuscript, has provided encouragement, solace, and support in more ways than I can count. I thank Kurt Weyland for his insistence on adequate rigor, and I congratulate him on his ultimate conversion to the light of prospect theory. I am grateful to my mother for her endless support. I have incurred profound debts among many friends who have provided me with unceasing love, support, and encouragement throughout this process, and I happily acknowledge their critical contributions. I want to thank Katie Greeno who, in addition to originally editing the entire dissertation on which this book is based, has offered an in nite bounty of brilliance, wit, and compassion since I rst met her in Lee Ross s decisionmaking class before I even entered graduate school. I thank Lisa Butler for

x Acknowledgments good advice well received at a critical time and much nurturance throughout. I would like to thank Margaret Sullivan, Trisha Dorff and Liddy Manson for their continuous loyalty, thoughtfulness, understanding, and care. In addition, I am grateful to my cousin Tom Schuttenhelm for his artistic aesthetic and companionship over the course of the later stages of this project. Finally, I would like to express my appreciation to two people who without being involved in political science have nonetheless helped me to function within it. I wish to thank Johanna Putnoi for teaching me through nurturance and example how to nd more resources within myself. I would like to gratefully acknowledge Iris Ascher, who, without reading a word of this manuscript, did everything right to make it possible for me to both start it and complete it.