Colorado Weather and Climate Update Nolan J. Doesken State Climatologist Colorado Climate Center, Atmospheric Science Department, Colorado State University Presented to Colorado Livestock Association, Greeley, CO, Tuesday, February 13, 2007 Prepared by Odie Bliss
Colorado s s Climate What We Expect
Average Monthly Temperatures Average Monthly Temperatures (1971-2000) for Selected Stations Denver Sterling Evergreen Berthoud Pass Lamar 90 80 70 Temperature (deg F) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Month
CoAgMet Annual Temperatures Kersey CoAgMet Actual temperatures, predictable annual cycle, but large daily variations
Colorado Average Annual Precipitation
Monthly Average 30-year Precipitation for Greeley, CO 3.0 Monthly Precipitation Averages for Selected Sites (1971-2000 averages) 2.5 Precipitation (inches) 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Monthly Average 30-year Precipitation for Brighton, Sterling and Holyoke, CO 4.0 3.5 Monthly Precipitation Averages for Selected Sites (1971-2000 averages) Holyoke Sterling Brighton 3.0 Precipitation (inches) 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Precipitation Averages for Selected Sites Precipitation (inches) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 Comparison Monthly Precipitation for Selected Sites (1971-2000 averages) Flagler Lamar Goodland, KS Denver Rocky Ford Grand Junction 0.5 0.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Holyoke 2004, 2005 & 2006 daily accumulated precipitation compared to daily average 25 Holyoke Daily Accumulated Precipitation for 2004, 2005 & 2006 and 30-year average Accumulated Precipitation (Inches) 20 15 10 5 Average 2004 2005 2006 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Lots of Sunshine! http://www.thefarm.org/charities/i4at/surv/solmap.htm
CoAgMet Solar Radiation Rocky Ford, CO
Recent Climate Ups and Downs
1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 48-Month SPI Fraction of Colorado in Drought Based on 48 month SPI (1890 - Nov 2006) 1890 1892 1895 1897 1900 1902 1905 1910 1912 1915 1917 1920 1922 1925 1927 1930 1932 1935 1937 1940 1942 1945 1947 1950 1952 1955 1957 1960 1962 1965 1967 1970 1972 1975 1977 1907 1980 1982 1985 1987 1990 1992 1995 1997 2000 2002 2005 Year Fraction (in percent)
Rocky Ford Water Year Precipitation Water Year (Oct-Sep) Precipitation Comparison for Rocky Ford through 2006 25 20 15 10 5 0 2005 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 YEAR Precipitation (inches)
1999 Water Year Precipitation
2000 Water Year Precipitation
2001 Water Year Precipitation
2002 Water Year Precipitation
2003 Water Year Precipitation
2004 Water Year Precipitation
2005 Water Year Precipitation
Water Year 2006 precipitation as a percent of average (Prism)
NOW!
December 2006
Greeley Daily Total Snowdepth Greeley Snowdepth from November 28, 2006 - February 11, 2007 25 20 15 10 5 0 Snowdepth (inches) 11/28/2006 12/5/2006 12/12/2006 12/19/2006 12/26/2006 1/2/2007 1/9/2007 1/16/2007 1/23/2007 1/30/2007 2/6/2007
Kersey CoAgMet Temperature Dec 05 Jan 2006 Dec 06 Jan 2007
Colorado Agricultural Meteorological (CoAgMET) Network Kersey site, photo by Harold Duke http://www.coagmet.com
CoAgMet Statewide Station Map
Water Year 2006 Snowpack Accumulation and Meltout Photo courtesy NRCS
University Camp Snotel
Upper San Juan Snotel
Mesa Lakes Snotel
What Comes Next?
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/sst.html
Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Departure from Average
El Nino Status and Projections
Feb-Apr Temperature
Feb-Apr Precipitation
Mar-May Temperature
Mar-May Precipitation
Jun-Aug Temperatures
Jun-Aug Precipitation
Finally, some thoughts on Climate Change
Many questions remain, and no one knows for sure, but. Colorado Statewide Water Year (Oct-Sep) Average Temperatures From 1896-2006
33 31 29 27 25 23 21 19 17 Colorado Winter Statewide Temperatures Colorado Statewide Average Winter (Dec-Feb) Temperature (1895-2006) Temperatuure (deg F) 1895 1990 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1995 2000 2005 Temperature Average Temperature
70 69 68 67 66 65 64 63 62 61 60 Colorado Summer Statewide Temperatures Colorado Statewide Average Summer (Jun-Aug) Temperature (1895-2006) Temperature (deg F) 1895 1900 2000 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2005 Temperature Average Temperature
25 20 15 10 5 Colorado Statewide Water Year (Oct-Sep) Precipitation Colorado Statewide Water Year (Oct-Sep) Precipitation from 1896-2006 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Precipitation (inches)
Precipitation is highly variable, so detecting trends in precipitation will be difficult. If temperatures rise, evapotranspiration rates will also rise. More precipitation may be needed just to break even. This is a concern in a dry state like Colorado!
So what should I do? Help measure the rain! Photo by H. Reges
Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow (CoCoRaHS) Network www.cocorahs.org Photo by H. Reges
For More Information, Visit the CoCoRaHS Web Site http://www.cocorahs.org Support for this project provided by NSF Informal Science Education Program, NOAA Environmental Literacy Program and many local charter sponsors.
Colorado Climate Center Data and Power Point Presentations available for downloading http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu