Managing and Adapting to Sea Level Rise in Egypt Coastal Research Institute
Global Perspective
Climate-induced increases in sea level are caused by thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of land ice and ice sheets
Global mean surface temperature is projected to increase during the 21st century (1.8 to 4.0 o c)according to special report on emission reduction scenarios (SRES)
This figure relates temperature changes and sea level rise for 6 different global models (18 to 59cm to year 2100
Global Mean Sea Level from Tidal Gauge observations around the world 2.0 mm/year 0.8 mm/year Average Rate ~ 1.8 mm/year
Contribution to Sea Level by Thermal Expansion 20 Rate = 0.4 mm/year (1955-2004) 15 10 DMSL (mm) 5 0-5 -10-15 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year
DMSL (mm) Contribution to Sea Level by Mountain Glaciers 25 25 20 20 1961-2003: 0.5 mm/year DMSL (mm) 15 15 10 10 55 00 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year
Projected global averaged surface warming and sea level rise till 2100, IPCC-2007 Scenario Case Constant year 2000 concentrations Temperature Change (Relative to 1980-1999 C) Best Estimate 0.6 B1 Scenario 1.8 A1T Scenario 2.4 B2 Scenario 2.4 A1B Scenario 2.8 A2 Scenario 3.4 A1FI Scenario 4.0 Sea Level Rise (m) (Relative to 1980-1999) Model-based range excluding future rapid dynamical exchange in the ice flow Not available 0.18-0.38 0.20-0.45 0.20-0.43 0.21-0.48 0.23-0.51 0.26-0.59
CoRI Activities
Impact of climate changes on coastal zones was investigated by MWRI, Coastal Research Institute (CoRI) and Delft Hydraulics, Netherlands (1989-1992) The study at that time has estimated the sea level rise impact on all the entire coastal zones of Egypt (3500 km) in terms of quality and quantity. The study focused on the Nile Delta coast as it has been considered the most vulnerable area in the coastal zones of Egypt The study estimated the impacts of sea level rise if water has raisin by 1m, 2m, and 3m as shown in the figure.
Results of the study show the vulnerable areas to sea level rise in the Nile Delta with different water levels 1m zone 2m zone 3m zone
Results by CoRI & Delft (1992) and IPCC (2006) are comparable Because both studies ignored the morphological features of the coastal zone of the Nile Delta as (coastal sand dunes and ridges). Vulnerable areas defined by IPCC in 2006 Vulnerable areas defined by CoRI and Delft in 1992.
Coastal Research Institute increased its activities to define precisely the vulnerable areas taking into account the morphological features of the Nile Delta coastal zones (Sand dunes and Ridges) AMP 15.0 WBP 5.8 RGP 0.0 Shoreline 1900 Shoreline 1964 Shoreline 1971 Shoreline 1988 Shoreline 1990 Shoreline 1991 Shoreline 1996 Shoreline 2000 0 400 800 1000 m 1900 1964 1971 1988 1990 1991 Shoreline 1900 Shoreline 1964 Shoreline 1971 Shoreline 1988 Shoreline 1990 Shoreline 1991 Shoreline 1996 Lake Burullus 1810 1909 1935 1947 1964 1988 2000 0 400 800 1000 m Shoreline Evolution at Burullus lake outlet (1810 to 2000) Shoreline 1955 Shoreline 1988 Shoreline 1990 Light House Grand Hotel 1988 1990 1955 Paved Road 0 200 400 600 800 m Shoreline Evolution at Baltim Sea Resort (1955 to 1990) Shoreline 1895 Shoreline 1911 Shoreline 1935 Shoreline 1955 Shoreline 1983 Shoreline 1991 Shoreline 1995 Shoreline 2000 1935 1911 1895 1955 1983 1991 1995 2000 0 400 800 1000 m Shoreline Evolution at Damietta Promontory (1895 to 2000) Shoreline 1965 Shoreline 1982 Shoreline 1992 Shoreline 1990 Shoreline 1991 Shoreline 1992 Shoreline 2000 1990 1991 0 200 400 m 1965 1992 2000 1982 1992 Protection Sea Wall Shoreline Evolution East of Damietta Nile Branch (From 1965 to 2000) MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES AND IRRIGATION NATIONAL WATER RESEARCH CENTER COASTAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE GIS and Remote Sensing Unit 1996 2000 Shoreline Retreat (meter/year) 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Shoreline Evolution at Rosetta Promontory (1900 to 2000) 0 1898:1909 1909:1922 1922:1942 1942:1955 1955:1971 1971:1981 1981:1983 1983:1987 Time Period (Year) 1987:1988 Abu Qir Research Station Zone 1988:1990 West of Rosetta Mouth East of Rosetta Mouth Shoreline Retreat Rate East and West Rosetta Mouth During The Past Century ALP 49.0 ALP 50.0 ALP 51.0 ALP 52.0 ALP 53.0 ALP 54.0 ALP 55.0 ALP 56.0 ALP 57.0 ALP 58.0 ALP 59.0 ALP 60.0 ALP 61.0 ALP 62.0 ALP 63.0 ALP31 ALP33 ALP37 ALP25 1990:1991 ALP14 ALP17 ALP19 1 1991:1994 ALP9 ALP1 ALP3 1994:1996 2 RHP 0.0 RHP 10.0 RHP 21.0 RHP 20.0 RHP 19.0 RHP 18.0 RHP 17.0 RHP 16.0 RHP 15.0 Rosetta Field Station Zone RHP 30.0 RHP 28.3 RHP 26.8 RHP 24.8 RHP 23.0 RHP 22.0 RHP 30.1 WBP 2.9 WBP 4.1 WBP 4.6 WBP 5.7 3 WBP 6.8 WBP 9.0 WBP 10.6 WBP 15.1 WBP 13.2 WBP 17.8 WBP 21.7 WBP 25.0 WBP 30.0 WBP 35.0 1 Institute Administration Building 2 Abu Qir Research Station 3 Rosetta Field Station 4 Burullus Field Station 5 Ras El Bar Research Station WBP 40.0 WBP 45.0 Burullus Field Station Zone WBP 50.0 WBP 59.9 WBP 58.6 WBP 57.6 WBP 56.8 WBP 62.6 WBP 61.6 WBP 60.6 BRP 0.6 BRP 0.2 BRP 1.5 BRP 1.0 BRP 2.0 BRP 4.0 BRP 3.0 BRP 2.4 4 BRP 7.0 BRP 6.0 BRP 5.0 BRP 8.0 BRP 9.0 BRP 9.5 BRP 11.4 BRP 13.0 BRP 13.4 BRP 14.8 BRP 16.5 BRP 20.0 Hydrografic and Land Profiles (Since )1971 Tide Gauge Stations 19(Years Separated) Wave and Current Gauge Stations (S4DW 13)(Years Separated) Longshore Current (Litteral current )Measurement Stations (Since 1982) Current beyond breaker zone Measurement Stations 25(Years Separated) Weather Station (Since 2000Separted) Water Quality Sampling Stations (Since 1998 Separated) Sediment Sampling Stations (Since )1971 BRP 24.0 BRP 28.0 BRP 38.0 BRP 43.0 BRP 48.0 BRP 55.0 BRP 56.6 BRP 57.7 GSP 1.0 GSP 3.9 Ras El Bar Research Station Zone GSP 9.7 GSP 13.0 GSP 17.9 GSP 17.0 GSP 16.0 GSP 23.1 GSP 20.3 GSP 19.3 GSP 24.4 GSP 24.1 GSP 28.3 GSP 27.0 GSP 26.4 GSP 25.4 GSP 28.4 5 RGP 0.1 RGP 1.5 RGP 6.0 RGP 2.5 RGP 20.0 RGP 22.0 RGP 32.0 RGP 37.0 RGP 40.0 GPP 0.0 0 10 20 30 km المحطات الحقلية 2015 واألنشطة 2nd June البحثيةTalks المختلفة Climate لمعهد Cairo بحوث الشواطئ About 200 hydrographic beach profiles along the Nile Delta coast
Suez Canal 31 o 00' 31 o 30' 32 o 00' Mediterranean Sea ROSETTA PROMONTORY BURULLUS Burullus Lagoon Baltim Gamasa DAMIETTA PROMONTORY Abu Quir Bay Port Said NILE DELTA Idku Lagoon Beach and backshore Old Dunes Cultivated Land Coastal Dunes Desert Northern Coast Ridge 0 20km توزيع الكثبان الرملية على طول دلتا نهر النيل 30 o 00' 30 o 30' Cairo 31Climate o 00' Talks 2nd June 31 o 30' 2015 32 o 00' 32 o 30'
Trend and Accelerated Sea Level Rise (ASLR) Measured Along the Nile Delta Coast. (CoRI-2007), First Scenario Station Tide measured duration Average Annual ASLT (Cm) Sea Level Rise (Cm) 2050 Sea Level Rise (Cm) 2075 Sea Level Rise (Cm) 2100 Alex. 1980-2000 0.16 8.0 12.0 16.0 El-Burullus 1972-2001 0.23 11.5 16.25 23.0 Port Said 1979-2000 0.53 26.5 39.75 53.0
Three scenarios were established with the actual morphology The first scenario was established by assuming that the same rate of temperature change (0.6 ºC over the last century) will occur till 2100. The second scenario was established by temperature projection till 2100. Temperature change is assumed to be 1.8 ºC above 1990 limit till the end of the current century. The third scenario was established by temperature projection to be 4.0 ºC above 1990 limit till the end of the current century.
Results Considering Natural and Man-made Protection Systems
Al-Manzala Lake Borders Al=Atwy (8km) (3.28m) Al-Rodah (12 km) (2.84 m) Al-Lithy (27 km) (3.6 m) Al-Shipool (38 km) (3.13m)
West Al-Burullus Port (+1.5 m ) N West New Port (+1.5 m) - N Al-Burullus Lake Borders Baltim (+2.0 m) E Baltim (+2.0 m) - E New New Road Road to (+ Kafr 2.15 m) S Al-Sheikh (+2.15) S Brimbal Area (+1.75 m) W
Mohammed Ali Sea Wall at Abu Quir Bay
Expected Impact of SLR due to Tide Gauges Till 2100, (CoRI 2007) 2025 2050 2075 2100
Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta Area According to CoRI measurements till 2100 (With Mohammed Ali wall lakes borders) Year 2025 2050 2075 2100 Total Area Affected (km2) 93.68 134.0 139.2 183.8 Total % of the Nile Delta Area 0.37 0.54 0.56 0.74
Expected Impact of SLR Due to Projected Values of The Mean Air Temperature Till 2100, B1 Scenario 2025 2050 2075 2100
Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta area (B1 scenario) (With Mohammed Ali wall lake's borders) Year 2025 2050 2075 2100 Total Area Affected (km2) 118.5 169.45 221.83 243.1 Total % of the Nile Delta Area 0.45 0.68 0.89 0.97
Expected Impact of SLR Due to Projected Values of The Mean Air Temperature Till 2100, A1FI Scenario 2025 2050 2075 2100
Total affected area and its percentage to the Nile Delta area (A1F1 scenario) (With Mohammed Ali wall and lake's borders) Year 2025 2050 2075 2100 Total Area Affected (km2) 152.86 256.27 450 761.4 Total % of the Nile Delta Area 0.61 1.03 1.8 3.01
Impacts of SLR and the vulnerability of coastal communities, economic sectors and natural systems in the areas of Ras El Bar, New Damietta City and Gamasa Cultivated land affected by high levels of groundwater until 2100 land affected by high levels of groundwater until 2100
Coastal Hydrodynamic
Methodology The historical measured wave data from 1977 to 2010 are examined to investigate the effects of climate change on wave climate. ImSedTran-2D numerical model is used to describe changes in wave energy from place to place and to check the stability of the existing coastal structures.
Wave measurement stations 1998-1999 1992-1995 2003-2005 1997-1999 2001-2004 2009-2010 1985-1990 1985-1990 1971-1977 1972-1983 1972-1977 1977-1980
Wave data sources along the southeastern Mediterranean coast No. Location Position Instrument Depth Period Duration (month) Meas. Interval 1 El Hamra Lat. 30 o 55.9' N; Long. 28 o 50.1' E S4DW 8.0 July 1998 to May 1999 11 20 minutes 2.0hr. 2 El Dikheila Harbor Lat. 31 o 08.326 N; Long. 29 o 48.826 E S4DW 17.0 March 1992 to March 1995 40 20 minutes 4.0hr. 3 Abu Quir Headland --------- OSPOS 6-8 Some records during the period from 1971 to 1977 ---- 20 minutes 6.0hr. 4 Abu Quir Bay Lat. 31 o 22.3273' N; Long. 30 o 13.503' E CAS 18.5 Sep 1985 to Dec, 1990 64 34 minutes each 6.0hr. 5 Abu Quir Bay Lat 31 o 23.5667 N; long 30 o 15.5167 E S4DW 14.1 Dec. 2003 to Nov. 2005 24 20 minutes 4.0 hr. 6 Burullus ---------- OSPOS 6-8 Some records during the period from 1972 to 1983 ----- 20 minutes 6.0hr. 7 Damietta Harbor Lat. 31 o 30.4316' N; Long. 31 o 45.5994' E S4DW 12.0 Sep. 1997 to June 1999 June 2001 to March 2004 Nov. 2009 to Sep. 2010 22 33 10 20 minutes 4.0 hr. 8 West Ras El-Bar Lat. 31 o 31.4201' N; Long. 31 o 49.1847' E CAS 7.0 May 1985 to Dec. 1990 68 34 minutes each 6.0hr. 9 East of Ras El-Bar ------------- OSPOS 6-8 Some records during the period from 1972 to 1977 ---- 20 minutes 6.0 hr. 10 Ashdod, Israel -------------- Wave rider 20 1977-1980 30 3.0 hr.
Segnificant wave height (m). Wave direction from North Significant wave period (sec.) 5 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Monthes 11 10 mean-st. Dv. Medium Mean mean+st. Dv. Max. Storm season: Oct. To March Swell season: June to Oct. Spring season: April and May More than 75% of the year, the wave heights less than 1.0 m and more than 50% of the year, the wave periods range between 5.5 and 6.5 sec. In summer about 50% of the waves oscillate between NNW and WNW directions while in winter 50% of the waves oscillate between N and NW directions. 200 150 100 50 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Monthes 0-50 -100-150 -200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Monthes Wave characteristics in front of Damietta harbor illustrated all the available observation during the period from 1997 to 2010 at 12.5 m depth.
Results
There is an increasing trend in the mean significant wave height during the period from 1985 to 2010 by rate ranged from 2.6 to 2.9 cm/year. The increase in wave height during the period from 1985 to 2010 coincides with a decrease in wave period ranged from 0.01 to 0.26 sec/year. It may be due to increase in sea wave and decrease in the swell waves.
Wave distribution obtained from ImSedTran-2D model after 50 years shows that the wave energy in front of the coastal structures within this area increases by about 20% within high storms. While it decreases by about 1% for the normal wave condition Stability check within the coastal structures lifetime show that nearly most of the Egyptian coastal structures are over designed and will not be affected by the increase in wave energy due to the climate change. 3495000 3490000 3485000 3480000 3475000 3495000 9 8 3490000 7 6 5 3485000 4 3 3480000 2 1 0 3475000 240000 245000 250000 255000 260000 265000 240000 245000 250000 255000 260000 265000 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Adaptation Strategies
According to IPCC summary report for decision makers, Nov. 2007, it is recommended to create wetlands in areas vulnerable to the impacts of sea level rise in low lying deltas. (Al-Manzalla, Al-Burullus, Idku, and Maryot Lakes are one of the natural adaptation processes). Protection constructions carried out by Shore Protection Authority (SPA) (Damietta, Rosetta, and Al-Burullus). Natural sand dunes systems Mohammed Ali Wall which protects low lands at Abu-Quir Bay in the western region of the Nile Delta.
The international road could act as the second defensive line to protect north zone of the country. In this concern, it should be mentioned that UNDP in 1992 had a roundtable meeting about considering the road as a mitigation measure against the impact of sea level rise. Al-Salam Canal goes by Al-Manzalla Lake and its banks have levels more that two meters above lake's water level.
Natural chain of coastal sand dunes and the international coastal road International coastal road
Sand Dunes at Middle Delta Coast and coastal protection works
Artificial Sand Dune Proposed nourished areas
Increase the efficiency of existing protection work Muhammed Ali Sea Wall Protected Cultivated Low Lands
Muhammed Ali Sea Wall Abu Quir Bay Low Lands (1.5 2.5 m Below Sea Level) Protected By Muhammed Ali Sea Wall
Protect the vulnerable areas Ras-El-Bar City shore before Shore protection Ras-El-Bar City shore After Shore protection
Resent plan Increase the accuracy of the data ( full hydrographic survey for the coastal area GPS reference stations for land subsidence measurement expand the meteorological measured stations). Use the Dredged material from port approach channels and lakes to construct artificial dunes. Multi used coastal structures ( convert the hydrodynamic energy to electrical and or mechanical energy).
Conclusions
Conclusions Climate Change is a continuous and slow process. Temperature increased by 0.6 ºC in the last century due to upnormal activities as wars, industrial revolution.etc. The current study provides an assessment to vulnerability of the Nile Delta coasts to sea level rise (SLR) expected from the climate change. The study was carried out by using actual measurements of tide gauges for the last three decades. Statistical analysis indicated that the rate of average mean SLR is 5.3mm, 2.3mm, and 1.6 mm in Port Said, Al-Burullus, and Alexandria respectively. Results indicate that the vulnerable areas have percentages of 0.74, 0.97, and 3.01 of the area of the Nile Delta area for CoRI, B1, and A1FI scenarios respectively. This means that less than 1.0% of the Nile Delta area will suffer from sea level rise in CoRI and B1 scenarios and about 3% with A1FI scenario.
What is our priority?? The climate change with its high uncertainty Or our existing problems of: - Lack of resources. - Shoreline erosion. - Outlet sedimentation. - North lakes pollution. - Deterioration of the coastal zone ecosystems. - Increase of population. - Increase demand for fresh water. - Lack of electricity. - Deterioration of the infrastructure in general - etc.
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