February 13, 2012 The AndersonGeckil "pocketbook" model is estimated using data from a variety of sources covering economic conditions and institutional factors in the United States from 1916 to 2008, and predicted economic conditions for 2012. The econometric techniques used include standard linear regression as well as more advanced weighted, panel, and robust regression techniques. An extensive description of the model, including summary statistics, is contained in the 2004 article Pocketbook Predictions of Presidential Elections in the journal Business Economics. The model is primarily intended to explain the decisions of voters rather than to predict the outcome of elections. As with any other econometric model, many variables are not included due to lack of data. Furthermore, any prediction using this, or any other econometric model, relies upon factors that cannot be known in advance. List of Exhibits: E1. U.S. GDP Growth, 19162011 U.S. GDP Growth During the Election Year U.S. GDP Growth During the Term of the President E2. National Unemployment Rate, 19162011 Unemployment Rate During the Election Year Unemployment Rate During the Term of the President E3. U.S. Inflation Rate (CPI), 19162011 Inflation ate (CPI) During the Election Year Inflation ate (CPI) During the Term of the President E4. U.S. GDP Growth, 19482011 U.S. GDP Growth During the Election Year U.S. GDP Growth During the Term of the President E5. National Unemployment Rate, 19482011 Unemployment Rate During the Election Year Unemployment Rate During the Term of the President E6. U.S. Inflation Rate (CPI), 19482011 Anderson Economic Group LLC www.andersoneconomicgroup.com 1555 Watertower Place, Suite 100 East Lansing, MI 48823 Tel: (517) 3336984 Fax: (517) 3337058 East Lansing Chicago
page 2 Inflation ate (CPI) During the Election Year Inflation ate (CPI) During the Term of the President E7. National Unemployment Data, 19482011 National Employment E8. National Unemployment Data, 20002011 National Employment E9. Actual Election Results and AndersonGeckil Predictions Actual Elections Results v. AndersonGeckil Predictions
Exhibit E1. U.S. GDP Growth, 19162011 0.2500 U.S. GDP Growth During the Election Year 0.1500 U.S. GDP () () (0.1500) () (0.2500) U.S. GDP Growth During the Term of the President 0.8000 0.6000 0.4000 U.S. GDP () (0.4000) (0.6000) Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Exhibit E2. National Unemployment Rate, 19162011 0.2500 Unemployment Rate During the Election Year Unemployment 0.1500 0.2500 Unemployment Rate During the Term of the President Unemployment 0.1500
Exhibit E3. U.S. Inflation Rate (CPI), 19162011 Inflation Rate (CPI) During the Election Year 0.1500 Inflation Rate () () (0.1500) Inflation Rate (CPI) During the Term of the President 0.1500 Inflation Rate () ()
Exhibit E4. U.S. GDP Growth, 19482011 0.1200 U.S. GDP Growth During the Election Year U.S. GDP 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2011 0.0900 U.S. GDP Growth During the Term of the President 0.0700 U.S. GDP 0.0300 0.0100 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Exhibit E5. National Unemployment Rate, 19482011 Unemployment Rate During the Election Year 0.0900 Unemployment 0.0700 0.0300 0.0100 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2011 Unemployment Rate During the Term of the President 0.0900 Unemployment 0.0700 0.0300 0.0100 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Exhibit E6. U.S. Inflation Rate (CPI), 19482011 0.1600 Inflation Rate (CPI) During the Election Year 0.1400 Inflation Rate 0.1200 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2011 0.1200 Inflation Rate (CPI) During the Term of the President Inflation Rate 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Exhibit E7. National Employment Data, 19482011 Employees in Thousands National Employment 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 Note: 2011 data is preliminary.
Exhibit E8. National Employment Data, 20002011 Employees in Thousands National Employment 140000 138000 136000 134000 132000 130000 128000 126000 124000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Note: 2011 data is preliminary.
Exhibit E9. Actual Election Results and AndersonGeckil Predictions 40.0% Actual Election Results v. AndersonGeckil Predictions 30.0% Percentage Vote Difference ( Challenger) 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 AndersonGeckil Pocketbook Model predicts 21 out of 24 presidential elections correctly since 1916, and all presidential elections since 1980. Actual Vote Difference AEG Model Prediction 40.0% Gen. Date: 3 Feb 2012