Australian Open - Melbourne, Grand slam, AUS, Hard, 18/01/2017 Court Speed is 80.8% (+1.8% above mean) - average. Projected Hold Break Opponent % Implied probability E.O.S. ATP World ATP Pinnacle Opening My TOT Rating 1 Andy Murray 87.90% 35.20% 85.30% N/A 1 2 1.012 1.17 119 Andrey Rublev 62.10% 16.90% 14.70% N/A 152 302 27.22 6.8 93.2 2 Alex De Minaur 75.30% 18.90% 62.54% N/A 301 364 3.6 1.6 90.6 Sam Querrey 83.50% 17.40% 37.46% N/A 32 27 1.339 2.67 98.8 3 John Isner 90.20% 12.70% 63.46% N/A 19 23 1.391 1.58 106.7 Mischa Zverev 92.10% 24.80% 36.54% N/A 50 37 3.28 2.74 108.6 4 Malek Jaziri 72.90% 16.20% 34.44% N/A 56 29 1.658 2.9 97.9 Alexander Bublik 80.80% 29.80% 65.56% N/A 207 215 2.37 1.53 105.8 5 Tomas Berdych 86.20% 19.80% 64.61% N/A 10 12 1.213 1.55 106.7 Ryan Harrison 83.90% 21.70% 35.39% N/A 82 39 5 2.83 104.4 6 Noah Rubin 65.10% 15.70% 8.23% N/A 200 103 13.44 12.2 93.6 Roger Federer 93.10% 33.80% 91.77% N/A 17 21 1.053 1.09 121.6 7 Lukas Lacko 71.70% 18.20% 35.76% N/A 121 93 2.37 2.8 98.6 Dudi Sela 73.10% 29.70% 64.24% N/A 67 35 1.658 1.56 100 Dominant H2H 8 Jeremy Chardy 72.40% 20.70% 28.21% N/A 72 116 6.35 3.54 100.4 Kei Nishikori 83.30% 28.30% 71.79% N/A 5 4 1.153 1.39 111.3 9 Stan Wawrinka 91.90% 23.80% 72.45% N/A 4 3 1.291 1.38 109.1 Steve Johnson 84.30% 14.40% 27.55% N/A 30 26 4.01 3.63 101.5 10 Paolo Lorenzi 78.90% 19.30% 32.89% N/A 43 148 4.65 3.04 95.3 Viktor Troicki 79.50% 18.10% 67.11% N/A 35 36 1.235 1.49 95.9 11 Diego Sebastian Schwartzman 76.20% 28.80% 58.15% N/A 54 162 1.658 1.72 106.2 Steve Darcis 69.00% 22.20% 41.85% N/A 71 204 2.37 2.39 99 12 Andreas Seppi 76.10% 18.50% 9.67% N/A 89 128 7.2 10.3 95.1 Nick Kyrgios 91.00% 21.50% 90.33% N/A 13 9 1.129 1.11 110 13 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 93.20% 21.70% 81.47% N/A 12 14 1.111 1.23 111.1 Dusan Lajovic 80.70% 17.20% 18.53% N/A 94 112 8.05 5.4 98.6
14 Karen Khachanov 91.40% 20.80% 41.50% N/A 52 58 3.4 2.41 111.3 Jack Sock 85.20% 20.10% 58.50% N/A 20 20 1.369 1.71 105.1 15 Bernard Tomic 87.00% 18.70% 71.38% N/A 27 16 1.1 1.4 100.5 Victor Estrella 68.10% 15.80% 28.62% N/A 103 213 8.67 3.49 81.6 16 Daniel Evans 77.30% 24.60% 31.31% N/A 51 68 4.77 3.19 104 Marin Cilic 82.80% 23.10% 68.69% N/A 7 8 1.227 1.46 109.5 ATP Hard Court Mean 79.00% It s forecast to be cooler in Melbourne today, with wind likely to cause problems for the players that toss the ball high when serving. De Minaur/Querrey I like the idea of taking on the big-serving American again here and the Aussie teenager impressed me in round one battling well for his 5 set win. Querrey shouldn t be 1.3x against anyone atm and I ll be taking him on after a few serves. Jaziri/Bublik The teenager from Kazakhstan has by far the better numbers and I m keen to see how he goes against Jaziri who is often a letdown in Melbourne. A match to keep a close eye on. Berdych/Harrison With Berdych dangerously close to plummeting out of the top 10 now seems the right time to play him and Harrison seems to be in the best form of his career and can put up a real fight here, Berdych s more complete game should come through in the end though as he went 20-2 last year versus players not in Top 50 and 7-0 in best of 5 sets, so could still be a class above Harrison. I can see 4 or 5 sets. Khachanov/Sock - This game is power against power and that means that a handful of key points could decide this one. Sock has the experience edge certainly, but I think Khachanov is more consistent with his serve as Sock sometimes has issues when under pressure and I think the Russian can surprise with his return game and take this.
Australian Open - Melbourne, Grand slam, AUS, Hard, 18/01/2017 Court Speed is 67.0% (+3.00 above mean) -fast. Projected Hold Break Opponent % Implied probability E.O.S. WTA World WTA Pinnacle Opening My TOT Rating 1 Angelique Kerber 67.20% 42.80% 83.24% 1.04 1 1 1.141 1.2 113.6 Carina Witthoeft 48.80% 39.60% 16.76% 2.84 89 123 6.75 5.97 95.2 2 Kristyna Pliskova 78.20% 27.00% 50.41% 1.33 58 38 1.901 1.98 102.5 Irina-Camelia Begu 73.00% 33.30% 49.59% 1.33 29 63 2.01 2.02 97.3 3 Shuai Peng 66.50% 35.00% 44.34% 1.54 83 47 3.22 2.26 98.3 Eugenie Bouchard 71.00% 32.80% 55.66% 1.2 47 51 1.4 1.8 102.8 4 Pauline Parmentier 71.50% 30.20% 37.14% 1.77 67 143 3.44 2.69 94 Coco Vandeweghe 77.90% 28.30% 62.86% 1.13 35 65 1.364 1.59 100.4 5 Carla Suarez Navarro 70.90% 38.10% 67.20% 1.17 12 12 1.386 1.49 109.2 Sorana Cirstea 56.00% 36.20% 32.80% 1.62 78 158 3.3 3.05 94.3 6 Alison Riske 64.80% 36.30% 51.91% 1.35 42 25 2 1.93 105.2 Shuai Zhang 62.20% 40.10% 48.09% 1.32 23 14 1.909 2.08 102.6 7 Anastasija Sevastova 61.80% 35.60% 46.85% 1.22 33 31 1.606 2.13 96.1 Kristina Kucova 67.00% 34.70% 53.15% 1.5 80 66 2.49 1.88 101.3 8 Samantha Crawford 57.50% 27.10% 26.09% 2.22 162 142 6.34 3.83 84.2 Garbine Muguruza 81.40% 35.60% 73.91% 1.06 7 18 1.154 1.35 108.1 9 Shelby Rogers 60.80% 33.50% 40.02% 1.23 52 100 1.833 2.5 101.2 Ashleigh Barty 71.30% 42.90% 59.98% 1.48 223 317 2.09 1.67 111.7 10 Mona Barthel 71.50% 23.80% 37.08% 1.53 181 189 2.52 2.7 96 Monica Puig 81.90% 36.70% 62.92% 1.2 46 54 1.595 1.59 106.4 11 Varvara Lepchenko 67.70% 28.20% 40.94% 1.38 88 64 1.885 2.44 93.4 Ying-Ying Duan 74.30% 33.50% 59.06% 1.29 87 61 2.02 1.69 100 12 Stefanie Voegele 50.90% 32.50% 28.86% 1.95 112 147 4.05 3.47 90.4 Venus Williams 67.60% 43.00% 71.14% 1.09 17 19 1.286 1.41 107.1 13 Elina Svitolina 70.50% 42.90% 89.08% 1.04 13 10 1.125 1.12 109.7 Julia Boserup 57.60% 32.30% 10.92% 2.84 119 179 7.38 9.16 96.8 14 Natalia Vikhlyantseva 64.10% 38.10% 38.75% 1.6 129 223 2.87 2.58 101.8 Notes
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 63.40% 35.60% 61.25% 1.18 27 56 1.478 1.63 101.1 15 Jelena Jankovic 77.80% 44.00% 59.91% 1.43 54 29 2.12 1.67 109.5 Julia Goerges 65.10% 23.70% 40.09% 1.26 57 76 1.806 2.49 96.8 16 Jaimee Fourlis 65.20% 18.60% 8.56% 3.73 414 294 10.98 11.7 88.8 Svetlana Kuznetsova 84.40% 41.00% 91.44% 1.02 10 11 1.071 1.09 108 WTA Hard Court Mean 64.0% Kerber/Witthoeft Third meeting and all three have been at the Slams. Kerber has won both matches in straight sets with just one of their four sets being close. I still feel Kerber is a little vulnerable but I don t anticipate Witthoeft causing too many problems. Kr. Pliskova/Begu Should be a close match depending on Pliskova s recovery after her movement was impeded in her first round win (wasn t sure if it was heat related?). Begu has won their two previous encounters but both went the distance. Bouchard/Peng Bouchard makes me very wary and I do like Peng s game; however, I m feeling that Bouchard should be able to deal with this but there may be a couple of ups and downs along the way and she will trade higher than her current 1.40. Vandeweghe/Parmentier Despite the nauseous spell in the second set of her first round win over Vinci, Vandeweghe looked quite impressive. Her weapons, the serve and the forehand, seem to be firing so she will be too powerful for a limited Parmentier. Suárez Navarro/Cirstea - I read that CSN said she was surprised at winning her first round match due to her shoulder injury. Cirstea definitely has chances to take this but I wonder if she can keep it consistent enough to break down the Spaniard. Kucova/Sevastova Sevastova has won all five matches they ve played but she has been shaky since the US Open and will be vulnerable having won her first match via retirement. Kucova has the better numbers and can take this, possibly in 3 sets. Muguruza/Crawford If backing the Spaniard be aware of Muguruza s thigh injury although she seemed positive and at ease in her press conference after her first round win. Crawford has a big game with little to no margin and if Muguruza s off then she could capitalise but I see an easy enough win for the seed. Barty/Rogers Both have been playing well but the crowd should help Barty here and on the numbers she has the edge.
Duan/Lepchenko Duan has been very impressive at the start of 2017 and she s already beaten Lepchenko in Sydney qualifying last week, 6-1 6-4, she has the edge on the numbers and should be favourite here for me.