Great Lakes Coastal Wetland Communities: Vulnerabilities to Climate Change and Response to Adaptation Strategies CCAF Wetlands Study Investigators: Susan Doka Fisheries & Oceans, Great Lakes Lab for Fisheries & Aquatic Sciences, Burlington, ON Joel Ingram Environment Canada, Canadian Wildlife Service, Downsview, ON Linda Mortsch Environment Canada & University of Waterloo, Atmospheric Impacts Research Group, Waterloo, ON Partners: Nick Mandrak DFO, Burlington, ON IJC Lake Ontario St. Lawrence Study Partners
CCAF Fish Community Project Overview Climate Change Effects Adaptation Strategies Temperature & Water Level Predictions 1 2 Assessment Objectives To assess the vulnerability of Great Lakes coastal wetlands to water level fluctuations due to climatic change To assess vulnerability of wetland fish & bird communities to projected vegetation, thermal & water level changes in the lower Great Lakes Fish & Bird Habitat Supply & Effects Marsh Dyking & Barriers Water Level Regulation Habitat Mapping & Modelling 1 2 Evaluation Objectives Evaluate the effects on coastal wetlands of modifications to water regulation on Lake Ontario as an adaptation strategy Evaluate the effects of wetland dyking on Lakes the lower Great Lakes as an adaptation strategy
CCAF Fish Sub-Project Overview Literature Review & Previous Modelling Models of Fish & Fish Habitat Response to Hydrologic & Thermal Change Future Fish Community Predicted invaders Current Fish Community Surveys in selected wetlands Wetland Elevation & Habitat Models + Vegetation Community Models + Climate Change Scenarios & Temperatures Fish Community Response to Climate Change & Adaptation Strategies
CCAF Habitat Field Surveys Dyked/Closed - Open Wetland Comparisons Wetland Elevation & Habitat Models CWS Surveys Emergent Vegetation Hi-Res Elevations Water Level Loggers Bird Community DFO Surveys Submergent Vegetation Substrate Type Water Depth Temperature Loggers Physicochemical Variables Fish Community Habitat Assessment includes: existing GIS layers, air photo interpretation, satellite imagery, field data (long-term point and sporadic spatial)
CCAF Wetland Locations Additional Habitat Sampling Sites: Eastern Lake St. Clair Rondeau Harbour Inner Bay, Long Point Fish & Habitat Sampling Sites: Mitchell s Bay, St. Clair NWA, Canard River, Holiday Beach, Point Pelee, Hillman Marsh, Big Creek NWA, Inner Bay Long Point, Jordan Station, Martindale Pond, Parrott s Bay, Amherst Island CCAF Fish Modelling Sites: Rondeau, Long Point, Presqu ile, Bay of Quinte, etc.
Huron-Erie Corridor Wetland Locations Mitchell s Bay + Adjacent Site Canard River St Clair National Wildlife Area Holiday Beach Hillman Marsh Point Pelee
Habitat Surveys in Submergent Vegetation Lake St. Clair Habitat Surveys in Submergent Vegetation for Assessing Fish Habitat Mitchell s Bay (open wetland) St. Clair National Wildlife Area (dyked)
Habitat Surveys in Submergent Vegetation Detroit River-Erie Canard River (open wetland) Holiday Beach (dyked wetland)
Habitat Surveys in Submergent Vegetation Western Lake Erie Hillman Marsh (open wetland) Point Pelee (closed wetland)
Temporal Habitat Surveys in Submergent Vegetation for Assessing Fish Habitat Availability (Merged with IR Imagery of Emergent Vegetation) Spring and Fall Submergent Vegetation Parrott s Bay, Lake Ontario
Lake St. Clair Wetland Temperatures 35 30 Temperature ( o C) 25 20 15 10 Open (Mitchell s Bay) 5 Dyked (St. Clair NWA) 0 28-Jun 18-Jul 7-Aug 27-Aug 16-Sep 6-Oct 26-Oct 15-Nov 2003
Summer Fall Species Richness 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Lake Detroit St. Clair River 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Non- Piscivore (N) Piscivore (P) Cold troutperch chinook salmon, brown trout Electrofishing West Erie East Erie Barrier West East Ontario Ontario Cool 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 white sucker, banded killifish, brook silverside, greater redhorse, shorthead redhorse, round goby, golden shiner, pugnose shiner, emerald shiner, blackchin shiner, spottail shiner, yellow perch, logperch longnose gar, northern pike, spotted gar, walleye Open Lake Detroit St. ClairRiver Hoopnetting West Erie East Erie West East Ontario Ontario Warm rock bass, black bullhead, yellow bullhead, brown bullhead, freshwater drum, goldfish, spotfin shiner, common carp, gizzard shad, channel catfish, bigmouth buffalo, green sunfish, pumpkinseed, warmouth, orangespotted sunfish, bluegill, pugnose minnow, white perch, mimic shiner, tadpole madtom, white crappie, bluntnose minnow, fathead minnow, black crappie, central mudminnow bowfin, smallmouth bass, largemouth bass, white bass
Fish Habitat Layers Presqu ile Bay, Lake Ontario Wetland polygons or grids (define emergent vegetation) Substrate Type (habitat surveys or assigned by shoreline characteristics) Elevation (80-52m) Submergent Vegetation (habitat surveys or models; not shown)
Habitat Suitability Modelling Wetland/Veg Substrate Depth/Elevation Temperature Buffer shoreline types to depth contour Map habitat combinations Model suitabilities for different life stages, species & guilds
Lake Ontario Simulated Historical Water Levels 76.5 Water Level (m ASL IGLD85) 76.0 75.5 75.0 74.5 74.0 73.5 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 YEAR Unregulated Regulated Climate Change
Presqu ile Bay Lake Ontario North Shore 1986 Pike YOY Suitability CC 1986 Pike YOY Suitability Low Med High
Presqu ile Bay Lake Ontario North Shore 1999 Pike YOY Suitability CC 1999 Pike YOY Suitability Low Med High
Framework for Huron-Erie Corridor 1. Current habitat information needed at the correct resolution, especially bathymetry/elevation and turbidity, if possible 2. Habitat supply models needed to assess fish community effects due to multiple stressors 3. Must be life stage based assessment, which requires knowledge of habitat requirements 4. Evaluate the habitat supply of potential future fish community based on invasion due to climate change.
Acknowledgements GIS Support: Carolyn Bakelaar, Charlene Rae Field & Lab Support: Lynn Bouvier, Jason Barnucz, Matt Stuart, Kathy Seifried, Cindy Chu, Kris VandeSompel Modelling Support Jim Moore, JEMSys Charles K. Minns, DFO