Issues, Ideology, Gender, and Race in the 2008 Election Daron Shaw Department of Government University of Texas at Austin Hosted by the s Opportunity 08 project In partnership with the Center for the Study of Democratic Politics at Princeton University s Woodrow Wilson School of Public Affairs The
1 FIGURES 1A and 1B Source: Pew and the People Survey, Spring 2008. Presidential Candidates and Issue Handling Ratings McCain Obama Terrorism and National Security 40% 50% The Iraq War 47% 46% Issues like Abortion, Guns, and Same Sex Marriage 39% 46% Taxes and Government Spending 39% 50% Financial Problems on Wall Street and in the Housing and Mortgage Crises 34% 50% Energy Policy and Gas Prices 36% 53% The Economy and Jobs 35% 54% Health Care 30% 56% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% Source: Washington Post Poll, October 2008
2 FIGURE 2 Presidential Candidates and Trait Ratings McCain Obama Will stand up for what's right, even if it's not politically popular 57% 60% Is honest and trustworthy 54% 62% Would fit in well with people in your local community 54% 63% Shares your values 47% 59% Has the right judgment and temperament to make a good president 51% 66% Can bring the country together 42% 62% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% FIGURE 3 Presidential Candidates and the Critical Questions Yes No 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 53% 50% 48% 47% 45% 43% 40% 35% 30% 25% Is Obama Experienced Enough to be President? Would McCain be Different from Bush? Source: Washington Post Poll, October 2008
3 FIGURE 4 Presidential Vote by Ideology Conservative Moderate Liberal 100% 90% 80% 84% 89% 82% 70% 69% 60% 54% 53% 50% 45% 40% 37% 30% 20% 10% 11% 10% 15% 20% 0% Bush McCain Kerry Obama Source: 2008 data are from CBS News Poll, October 2008. 2004 data are from the EMR national exit poll.
4 FIGURE 5 Democratic Party Identification by Gender, 1952 to 2004 % of Men and Women who Identify with the Democratic Party 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 Women Men 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 Source: ANES from selected years.
5 FIGURE 6 The Security Mom Myth 52 % who voted for Bush 50 48 46 44 42 40 Women with children at home Women without children at home Source: 2000 and 2004 ANES. 2000 2004
6 FIGURE 7 White Gender Gap in Presidential Voting South versus Non South % Women voting for Democrat minus % Men 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20 Non South South 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 25 Source: ANES from selected years.
7 FIGURE 8 The Bradley/Wilder Effect: Factors Affecting the Difference between Poll and Election Results 1. Measurable error (Sample size) 2. Un measurable error (Response rates) 3. Genuine changes in preferences 4. Mis representation of preferences
8 FIGURE 9 Ideological Identification of Self and the Candidates 2000 and 2004 Gore Self Bush 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Pre-War Boomers Gen X Gen Y Kerry Self Bush 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Pre-War Boomers Gen X Gen Y Note: Table entries equal ideological placement of candidates and self on 7 point scale (liberal to conservative). Source: 2000 and 2004 ANES
9 FIGURE 10 Democratic Party Identification Advantage among Different Age Cohorts Across Time When Respondent became 2000 Eligible to Vote 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2004 Pre War War II Voter s (80 years plus) 19 19 19 19 23 30* Before 1946 Post World War II Voters (63 to 70) 22 28 18 15 14 12 From 1946 and 1962 Vietnam War/W atergate Voters (43 to 62) 24 25 12 11 8 From 1963 and 1979 Reagan/Bush Era Voters (31 to 42) 5 9 6 From 1980 and 1991 Clinton Era Voters (23 to 30) 0 12 From 1992 to 1999 Today's Young Voters (18 to 24) 27 From 1997 to 2004 Note: Cell entries equal the average Democratic advantage (% who identify or lean Democratic minus the % who identify or lean Republican) by each age cohort, for each decade. *There were less than 100 respondents in this category. Source: ANES cumulative file, 1948 2004.
10 FIGURE 11 Democratic Voting among the Generations Presidential Vote 18 24 Year Olds 1980s 1990s 2000s AVG. 41% 53% 65% 50% War and War War (before 1948) 43% Baby Boomers (1948 1962) 41% Generation X (1963 1978) 43% Generation Y (1979 1993) 52% 51% 48% 52% 49% 46% 49% 49% 46% 57% 66% 60% Senate Vote 18 24 Year Olds 52% 53% 60% 54% War and War War (before 1948) 55% Baby Boomers (1948 1962) 54% Generation X (1963 1978) 52% Generation Y (1979 1993) 55% 53% 55% 51% 52% 52% 53% 49% 52% 60% 59% 60% House Vote 18 24 Year Olds 62% 55% 65% 60% War and War War (before 1948) 57% Baby Boomers (1948 1962) 58% Generation X (1963 1978) 55% Generation Y (1979 1993) 55% 50% 55% 51% 50% 54% 55% 50% 54% 49% 65% 56% Note: Table entries are averages from ANES cumulative file, 1980 2004.
11 FIGURE 12 Outreach Efforts by Presidential Campaigns Obama McCain 70% 60% 65% Traditional Campaign Outreach New Campaign Outreach 50% 44% 40% 30% 20% 10% 21% 6% 35% 36% 33% 24% 28% 27% 26% 13% 12% 12% 31% 17% 27% 15% 16% 9% 0% TV Ads or TV News Door to Door Phone Calls Mail Watched campaign commerical online Watched virtual videos online Received emails Visited a campaign website Received "chain mails" Received campaign information from cell phone or personal digital assistant Source: Democracy Corps Poll, September 2008