Modellig Itegrated Waste Maagemet System of the Czech Republic JIRI HREBICEK, JANA SOUKOPOVA Istitute of Biostatistics ad Aalyses, Faculty of Ecoomics ad Admiistratio Masaryk Uiversity Kameice 126/3, 625 00 Bro, Lipova 507/41a, 602 00 Bro CZECH REPUBLIC hrebicek@iba.mui.cz, http://www.mui.cz/people/993/cv, soukopova@eco.mui.cz, http://www.mui.cz/eco/people/22882 Abstract: The paper is devoted to evirometal modellig, particularly modellig of Itegrated Muicipal Solid Waste Maagemet Systems at the Czech Republic (IMSWMS). There are cosidered iput macroecoomic variables (ladfills fees, price of electricity, tax o icomes, percetage of subsidies, etc.) prescribed by the govermet regulator (Miistry of Eviromet). It eables to simulate the differet scearios of prescribed waste ladfill fees, a iclusio or a exclusio of certai facilities of eergy recovery / mechaical-biological treatmet of waste with prescribed aual capacity i selected locatios. It uses GIS Network Aalyst for modellig muicipal solid waste (MSW) streams amog muicipalities ad waste treatmet facilities. Quatity of the productio of MSW are take from aual reports of muicipalities (if available) or estimated (if uavailable) by usig a sophisticated model icludig demographic ad socio-ecoomic impacts. The is preseted the case study of modellig chages IMSWMS i accordace with the implemetatio of the Europea Uio Waste Framework ad Ladfills Directives ito Czech legislatio. Key-Words: Evirometal modellig, Muicipal solid waste, Itegrated waste maagemet system, Waste maagemet modellig 1 Itroductio Itegrated muicipal solid waste maagemet system (IMWMS) cosists of several stages (raw materials extractio, processig, sale, cosumptio, fially becomig waste whe they are discarded by cosumers. These materials i the waste stream the udergo collectio, sortig (removal of recyclable materials) ad treatmet (which ca be thermal or biological), with the fial stage beig disposal i the ladfill. So we ca defie the idividual waste streams, which are mass balacig. Earlier this decade, the developmet of models of waste maagemet systems bega movig towards the IMWMS, which are desiged to miimise the evirometal impacts ad/or ecoomic costs, see [2], [4], [14], [17], [18]. Cosider the IMWMS of the Czech Republic discussed by [8], [9], [10] which cosists of the set of muicipal solid waste (MSW) sources (muicipalities) coected by the road etwork with the set of waste treatmet facilities (compostig, bio-gas, mechaical-biological treatmet (MBT) ad pretreatmet of recyclable waste plats, icieratig plats with eergy recovery (ERP) ad ladfills), where MSW (or its compoets separated at source) is trasported to chose facilities for recovery or fial disposal. The waste material balace is examied i terms of waste material streams betwee MSW sources ad waste treatmet facilities. Modellig IMSWMS has a complex ature with a rage of importat dimesios such as multiplicity of the types of waste geerated i the commuities, complex spatial patter of waste arisig, the ecessity to trasport waste log distaces for processig, a variety of emissios from waste collectio, trasportig ad treatmet to the eviromet, ad the almost upredictable ad localised character of impacts of these emissios o humas ad ecosystems. Ad although there have bee attempts to aalyse the IMSWMS of the Czech Republic takig ito accout evirometal impacts of processes uder study, most of them have ot formed a holistic method for aalysig all spatial, temporal as well as qualitative aspects of the problem. Therefore, the aim of the paper is to itroduce a ew methodological backgroud for IMSWMS modellig of the Czech Republic, takig ito accout spatio-temporal patters of waste geeratio ad processig, evirometal as well as ecoomic impacts of the system developmet with a particular emphasis o public health ad biodiversity. I modellig the IMWMS of the Czech Republic, we started from the models available i literature. Sice the early 1990s, a umber of IMWMS have bee developed, which were based o Life Cycle Aalysis (LCA), i.e. materials ad eergy balaces, see [11], [13] ad Fig. 1. ISSN: 1792-4235 510 ISBN: 978-960-474-214-1
Figure 1. System boudaries for life cycle ivetory of MSW, [11]. Most available models are static, respectively determiistic ad quatify the ucertaity of estimates due to radom ature of iput values. Aother disadvatage of models based oly o the LCA is that they do ot allow optimisig the allocatio of waste treatmet facilities from sources ad/or quatifyig the trasport emissios. We tried to reduce the greatest ucertaity of our model by the estimatio of the compositio of muicipal waste, waste separatio, varyig the proportio of resources, varyig quatities of trade waste ad the like. We combie four sub-models i modellig IMWMS of the Czech Republic: a) The trasport sub-model of MSW flows amog sources ad facilities with usig the geographic iformatio system (GIS) ArcMap with its extesio Network Aalyst, [9], [10]. It computed the trasport matrix likig the sources MSW ad waste treatmet facilities ad eabled to fid the closest facility to muicipality. Further, the simple model, which is geerated emissios from the trasport of MSW. b) The waste productio sub-model of [7], [9], [10] for the determiatio of the quatity ad compositio of MSW at every source (muicipality). This quatity ad compositio MSW were calibrated with the database of collected data from aual waste reports of muicipalities regardig the quatity ad separated compoets of MSW. c) The cost ecoomic sub-models waste treatmet facilities icludig the geeratio of the emissios of MSW treatmet, [10], [15]. d) The carbo emissios optimisatio sub-model, which eables the choice of either the ecoomic or the evirometal poit of view. Practically, such optimisatio comes ito cosideratio for regulators whe decidig o localisatio of a ew facility (techology ad capacity) ad / or closure of existig facilities, the regulatio of their capacities ad the like. Some chose feasible miimum is usually acceptable for regulator without optimisatio. The productio of MSW at the Czech Republic is approximately 3,2 Millio tos of MSW aually (i 2008), ad most (85%) of it is ladfilled. The Waste Maagemet Pla of the Czech Republic (WMP) together with the Directive 1999/31/EC of 26 April 1999 o the ladfill of waste (Ladfill Directive) request to declie 1,5 Millio tos of MSW from ladfills to waste recovery facilities up to 2020 year. The paper itroduces above evirometal modellig approach to offer decisio support tools for the policymakers of the Miistry of Eviromet of the Czech Republic (MoE), which will help them to solve above problems usig subsidies of Europea Uio (EU). 2 MSW Streams Modellig Cosider the MSW streams at the Czech Republic amog all sources (muicipalities) S i, (i=1 N), N = 6 245 ad all waste treatmet facilities F j, (j=1 M), M = 307, where ML = 237 is the umber of ladfills. Cosider these MSW streams i a cotiuous maer ad mass balace betwee sources ad facilities carry out over a loger period of time (aual reportig). We built the trasport matrix D = {d ij }, (NxM), of real trasport distaces d ij (e.g. road maps) amog all sources S i ad all facilities F j ad the vector of the distace dc = {dc i } (Nx1) of the source S i from its closest ladfill F c, c {1,, M}. We have used the GIS program ArcMap 9.2 with its extesio Network Aalyst 9.2 [12] from ESRI for the aalysis of the closest facility (e.g. ladfills) to the idividual sources (muicipalities). The Network Aalyst program eables us to implemet etworkig aalysis - fidig the shortest path betwee two poits, fidig time to travel betwee two poits, etc. Users ca create ad maitai etwork data sets i shape file, persoal geo-database, ad eterprise geo-database formats. By usig ArcGIS Network Aalyst, we created simple applicatios that provide us trasport distaces amog all M sources ad N facilities, fid closest facilities, ad create the distace matrix D ad the vector dc. We used muicipalities ad roads layers of the Czech Republic for ArcGIS Network Aalyst from the opesource project FreeGeodataCZ data package, [3]. It icorporates a advaced coectivity trasport model that ca represet complex scearios, such as multimodal trasportatio etworks. ISSN: 1792-4235 511 ISBN: 978-960-474-214-1
3 Modellig Quatity ad Compositio of MSW We used for modellig the quatity ad compositio of MSW i each muicipality of the Czech Republic ad the sub-model [5], [8], [15]. They described the sophisticated model of MSW productio as the fuctio of appropriate variables takig ito accout specific waste productio, ad local demographic, socioecoomic iflueces. This model calculates the productio P i of MSW i each muicipality S i based o the adjusted umber of ihabitats ih i, the specific waste productio coefficiet spec ad specific demographic data reflectig the populatio behaviour with respect to MSW maagemet (i.e. the type of housig hsg i ad other variables std i, sz i, uemp i, heat i of muicipality S i ), (i=1 N). These data are dowloaded from publicly accessible registers of the Ceter for Regioal Developmet of the Miistry for Regioal Developmet of the Czech Republic ad the Czech Statistical Office. They are updated aually from all muicipalities i the Czech Republic; therefore, the model eables to calculate the productio of MSW for the give year with actual parameters ad predict waste productio with usig the liear model of the Waste Maagemet Pla of the Czech Republic. We were able modellig the quatity of the productio MSW for the year 2008 ad predict the icrease of the productio of MSW i 2016 ad 2020 years. The validatio ad optimisatio of the model outputs - the productio P i of MSW - was doe by [6], [8] with the available data from the aual reports of muicipalities S i of the South Moravia regio; however, aual reports of MSW of S i bear some error, which arose from differet data qualities. The process of the improvemet of the data quality of muicipalities S i of the South Moravia regio lasted several moths. The data from the aual reports of all muicipalities about their waste productio are collected by the Iformatio System of Waste Maagemet (ISWM) of the Czech Republic. We used these, but we had to solve the problem of completeess data, because more tha 500 muicipalities of the Czech Republic did ot report their aual MSW productio to ISWM. So we had to model their missed MSW productio i 2008 ad predicti their MSW productio i 2016 ad 2020 years, [10], [15]. We used the results of research of [1] for modellig MSW compositio. It was eeded for the calculatio of the amout of separated compoets of MSW at each muicipalities S i to obtai the rest PD i of MSW P i, (i=1 N) after the separatio of recyclable compoets. We estimated the real quatity of disposable productio PD i of MSW from the muicipality S i to waste treatmet facilities (ew oes or available oes) after separatio of recyclable compoets of MSW by formula PD i = (1 - sep i. will i ) P i, (1) where sep i is the ratio of separatio at source S i, will i is willigess to separate MSW (paper, glass, metals, textile ad bio-waste) at muicipality S i, (i=1 N). Coefficiets sep i ad will i came from data of the ivestigatio of the MoE ad were validated i the South Moravia regio by [6], [9]. The model (1) helped us to solve some ucertaities stemmig from the differet state of populatio awareess about MSW maagemet ad estimate the amout of disposable productio PD i of MSW from the muicipality S i to appropriate waste treatmet facilities. The MoE has used this model sice 2009 after several moths reviewig process by experts usig approach from [16]. 4 Modellig Costs of Facilities We developed the cost ecoomic models for all types of facilities F j (j=1 M), i.e. compostig, biogas, MBT ad ERP plats ad ladfills, [9], [15]. These models are similar ad we itroduced this ecoomic model for a geeric facility F. We calculated the price p of oe to of the waste treatmet at a ew compostig, bio-gas, MBT ad ERP plat F, which was based o the fiacial ad ecoomic aalysis ad fiacig methods for the measurig the efficiecy of ivestmet ad used the Net Preset Value (NPV) as the basic calculatio method for the price p. To calculate the price p we assumed that the NPV must be at the time of retur positive. Thus we set the maximum acceptable project payback period of total ivestmet I T i the facility F. The price p was calculated [10], [15] as (1 t) p i1 I 1 (1 i r) B C K ( ui ji Ei) to t 1 1, (2) (1 r) i1 where are I size of actual capital expeditures, that is, the total ivestmet I T without loa U ad subsidy D, r discout rate, t tax o icomes, O aual liear depreciatio, lifetime ad also payback of the facility F, B total reveue geerated from the facility i the lifetime of facility F, C total operatig costs arisig from the facility durig the lifetime of facility F, K capacity of the facility F, u i iterest arisig from loa U for the period i, i1 ISSN: 1792-4235 512 ISBN: 978-960-474-214-1
j i repaymet of pricipal o loa U for the period i, E i costs of emissio allowaces for the period i, i period (year). It is clear that differet facilities will have differet costs, icomes, ivestmets, etc. We developed the ecoomic sub-model for each type of facility F j (compostig, biogas, MBT ad ERP plats, ad ladfills). Therefore, we were able to costruct the price p j of MSW treatmet at the give facility F j (j=1 M). Example: Modellig the price p of MSW treatmet at ERP facility. We cosider the followig iputs (variables) of submodel: payback ; total ivestmet I; operatig costs C; icomes from other products B, except icome from ERP; aual depreciatio O; the loa U (i the model is cosidered 3 types of loas desiged for modelig price). Operatig costs C = FC + VC of ERP plat cosists of fixed ad variable costs. Fixed costs FC = FC 1 + FC 2 + FC 3 + FC 4 + FC 5 icludes: FC 1 persoel costs (wages, social isurace, health isurace etc.) ; FC 2 repairs ad maiteace costs ; FC 3 moitorig ad aalysis costs ; FC 4 lad teacy, retal equipmet costs ; ad other costs FC 5. Variable costs VC iclude costs associated with ERP operatig: eergy ad gas costs; disposal of sewage water costs ad material costs; costs of ladfill, which iclude costs of ladfill slag (cider); costs of ladfill of fly ash; ad trasport costs. Structure of operatig costs of ERP is show i Fig 2. The ecoomic sub-models were based o the real level of ivestmet, operatig expeses, operatig icomes, iterest o loas, capacity of facility ad emissios, [9], [10]. The ecoomic sub-model of costs o MSW treatmet of ladfills was evaluated usig statistical survey of 100 ladfills of the Czech Republic. It is based o the average price of MSW treatmet of ivestigated ladfills because the stadard deviatio of prices was less tha 8 percet. 5 Modellig Carbo Emissios I developig the carbo emissio sub-model, we have cofied ourselves to miimise greehouse gas emissios i the trasportatio, compostig, icieratio ad lad-fillig MSW. We used emissio factors [13] for facilities ad trasport, uit fuel cosumptio for trasport, eergy prices for eergy productio at ERP/MBT i ecoomic sub-models ad other parameters, which are fixed set accordig to the Czech Republic. Besides the MSW material streams modellig, there are also above ecoomic sub-models that ca describe the costs of emissio allowaces of facilities usig ecoomic istrumets (e.g. taxes). Therefore, the carbo emissio sub-model was simply trasformed ito the above sub-ecoomic models by replacig the uit cost of emissio factors. The ecoomic sub-models allowed us to isert idividual emissio factors, which deped o the waste treatmet techology. Therefore, it was possible by aalogy to coduct ecoomic optimisatio with regard to the cost of waste treatmet facilities. However, it was problem with the data for ew facilities, because they were ot available to the regulator (MoE) ad it could be obtaied oly from the facility operators (or potetial ivestors at prepared facilities) or by expert estimatios [16]. Figure 2. Operatig cost of ERP facility. Icomes of ERP B= B 1 + B 2 + + B 5 cosists of icomes: B 1 from MSW treatmet; B 2 from sales of heat; B 3 from the sale of electricity; B 4 from the sale of metals ad the other icomes B 5. The loa U = U 1 + U 2 + U 3 (there are 3 types of loas desiged for modelig price i the sub-model) is based o specified iputs for the calculatio of iterest for the period. The loa iterest calculatio must specify by the followig variables: the loa amout, the maturity of the loa ad the iterest rate. Based o these variables is computed for each year i iterest u i ad repaymet of pricipal each year j i. 6 Itegratio of Sub-models The above chapters shortly itroduced differet submodels eeded for the regulatio of IMSWMS of the Czech Republic ad a decisio support of the allocatio of subsidies from EU for buildig ew ERP / MBT facilities ad declie MSW from ladfills. We used properties of the MS Excel spreadsheet for the itegratio of above sub-models ito oe model of the IMSWMS of the Czech Republic. This eabled us modellig cost ad price relatioships for the MSW maagemet of the coutry through the cetral optio of the set of the iput ecoomic parameters of sub-models at the sigle cotrol sheet of the MS Excel with itercoected sheets, where we implemeted above sub-models: ISSN: 1792-4235 513 ISBN: 978-960-474-214-1
a) the sheet of socio-demographic variables (ih i, std i, sz i, uemp i, heat i, hsg i, sep i, will i ) of all muicipalities S i of the Czech Republic eeded to calculate the outputs MSW quatities P i ad PD i, (i=1 N), b) the sheet with the dyamically calculated the vector dc of the distace dc i of source S i from the closest ladfill F c by Network Aalyst program [12], ad the cost CTF i of waste treatmet of PD i at the ladfill F c together with the cost CTE i of trasport to this facility icludig carbo emissios cost, (i=1 N), c) the sheets of ecoomic sub-models of (plaed ad curret) waste treatmet facilities F j with dyamically calculated prices p j (2) icludig costs of carbo emissio, (j = 1 M), d) the sheet with dyamically calculated a potetial amout of MSW from the collectig waste area of the facility F j (j=1 M), where the collectig waste area cosists of the muicipalities, where are cheaper costs (CTF i + CTE i ) to the closest appropriate facility tha oes to the closest ladfill, e) the sheet of mai commuicatio iterface the IMSWMS, where the iput variables ( together with the allocatio of ew facilities are set up with further optios required for the model. The implemeted model of the IMSWMS of the Czech Republic calculates the costs of MSW treatmet at each muicipality of the Czech Republic based o prices at the earest treatmet facilities icludig trasport costs ad carbo emissio costs. If the cost of MSW treatmet i the ERP / MBT facility is less tha the cost of ladfillig, so it is assumed that the MSW from the muicipality will be treated i a appropriate ERP / MBT facility. If costs are higher so it assumed that either the MSW disposed of at the earest ladfill. 6 Case Study: Modellig EU Subsidies The model was applied to estimate the price load per capita at every MSW source Si, (i=1 N) ad total cost ad pricig relatioships i the IMSWMS of the Czech Republic, depedig o plaed EU subsidies to ew allocated facilities (ERP / MBT) icludig the total amout MSW declied from ladfills to these facilities. Decisios makers of the MoE choose iput parameters of the above model: the list of K plaed facilities F s (s = 1 K) (they are coected with their ecoomic sub-models); their commo payback ; commo value-added tax t; chose percetage P of subsidy D; charge of ladfillig C L ad ladfill reclamatio C R. The outputs of this model were prices p s of waste treatmet at plaed facilities F s, ad calculated prices CT i = (CTF i + CTE i ) of MSW treatmet for every muicipalities S i, (i=1 N) of the Czech Republic [9]. The used model for 36 differet scearios of subsidy schemes to split the amout of subsidy of EU structured fuds for the ivestmet of K=12 possible allocatios of projects of MBT / ERP plats. Table 1 shows the example of part of outputs of the model, i.e. costs (i CZK Czech Crows) of 1 to of waste treatmet at plaed facility of give capacity with respect to EU subsidies ad average of price per capita of MSW treatmet i the Czech Republic, which experts obtaied for all scearios ad plaed facilities. Table 1. Costs of 1 to of MSW treatmet at facility ad average price per capita (i CZK). EU ERP capacity per year MBT capacity per year Price per capita subsidy 100 kt 200 kt 80 kt 100 kt average 20% 1 565 1 363 1 742 1 702 740 30% 1 328 1 137 1 638 1 596 733 40% 1 091 912 1 539 1 491 719 7 Coclusio The paper described modellig Itegrated Muicipal Solid Waste Maagemet System of the Czech Republic with origial developed model that cosists of four submodels, which allows the assessmet of cost ad price relatioships i waste maagemet of the Czech Republic i relatio to several macroecoomic variables ad variat assumptios about the cost of the above types of facilities (ERP, MBT ad ladfill), icludig the itegratio of these devices to system of emissio tradig EU ETS. The cocept of the model is very geeral, ad other additios ad modificatios of the model (e.g. additio of other relevat waste streams) will be performed o the curret eeds of its users from Miistry of Eviromet of the Czech Republic. 7 Ackowledgemet The paper has bee developed i the project No. SP/4I1/54/08 The aalysis of muicipal budgets efficiecy i relatio to the evirometal protectio ad the project No. SPII/2F1/30/07 Research o itegrated waste maagemet system ad ew support tools for its implemetatio i the Czech Republic grated by the MoE. Refereces: [1] Beešová, L., Haťuková, P., Čerík, B. ad Kotoulová, Z., Muicipal Waste Evirometal ad Social Problems i Future. I Proceedigs 24. Iteratioal Coferece o Solid Waste Techology ad Maagemet, Philadelphia, U.S.A. 2009. http://komualiodpad.eu/idex.php?str=koferece ISSN: 1792-4235 514 ISBN: 978-960-474-214-1
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