Lorenzo Cain v. Kansas City Royals Submission on Behalf of the Kansas City Royals Team 14
Table of Contents I. Introduction and Request for Hearing Decision... 1 II. Quality of the Player s Contributions during the Past Season... 1 III. Length and Consistency of Career Contributions... 4 IV. Past Player Compensation... 5 V. Comparative Baseball Salaries... 5 a. Gregor Blanco (2013 - $1.35M)... 6 b. Gerardo Parra (2013 - $2.35M)... 7 VI. Existence of Physical or Mental Defects... 9 VII. Recent Performance of the Club... 10 VIII. Conclusion... 10
I. Introduction and Request for Hearing Decision This brief is submitted on behalf of the Kansas City Royals ( the Royals or the Club ) concerning Lorenzo Cain s ( Cain ) 2015 salary arbitration. This is the first year in which Mr. Cain is eligible for salary arbitration, having finished the 2014 season with 3.074 years of Major League Service ( MLS ). The Major League Baseball ( MLB ) Collective Bargaining Agreement ( CBA ) establishes the following criteria in determining a Player s award: (1) the quality of the Player s contribution to his Club during the past season; (2) the length and consistency of his career contribution; (3) the record of the Player s past compensation; (4) comparative baseball salaries; (5) the existence of any physical or mental defects on the part of the Player; and (6) the recent performance record of the Club including but not limited to its League standing and attendance as an indication of public acceptance. 1 The arbitration panel is instructed to give particular attention, for comparative salary purposes, to the contracts of Players with MLS not exceeding one annual service group above the Player s annual service group. 2 While Mr. Cain is a valuable member of the Royals, the Club has apprehensions concerning his extensive injury history. As evidenced by his past performance, Mr. Cain is entitled to a 2015 salary below the $2.725 million midpoint between his $3.35 million offer and the Club s $2.1 million offer. II. Quality of the Player s Contributions during the Past Season As with Mr. Cain s two previous seasons with the Royals, his 2014 season production was limited by injuries. Mr. Cain was healthy enough to serve as the starting center fielder or right fielder for the Royals for approximately 75% of his 2014 platform season. 3 When healthy enough 1 MLB Collective Bargaining Agreement, Article VI (E) 10(a). 2 3 Lorenzo Cain Statistics and History, Baseball Reference, http://www.baseballreference.com/players/c/cainlo01.shtml. 1
to play, Mr. Cain batted either seventh or eighth in the Club s lineup in a majority of his starts. 4 Despite being healthy enough to start for only 75% of the season, 2014 marked the highest amount of games Mr. Cain has played in a single season. 5 Table 1: Lorenzo Cain s 2014 Season G AB R H 2B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS 133 471 55 142 29 5 53 28 5 24 108.301.339.412.751 Overall, Mr. Cain posted respectable offensive totals for a bottom of the order outfielder during the 2014 season. He finished the season near or below the American League ( AL ) average in on base percentage ( OBP ), slugging percentage ( SLG ), and runs batted in ( RBI ), runs scored ( R ), and home runs ( HR ) for outfielders with at least 500 plate appearances. The only statistical categories in which Mr. Cain s season total was meaningfully above the league outfielder average was batting average ( AVG ) and stolen bases ( SB ). Table 2: Lorenzo Cain s 2014 Season Ranks 6 Statistic Lorenzo Cain AL Outfielder Average AL Rank AVG.301.269 4 th of 41 OBP.339.336 16 th of 41 SLG.412.418 17 th of 41 R 55 67.9 32 nd of 41 RBI 53 58.2 20 th of 41 HR 5 13.4 32 nd of 41 SB 28 12.1 4 th of 41 Mr. Cain s.301 AVG was the 14 th highest in MLB and 4 th among AL outfielders with at least 500 plate appearances. 7 However, the relative value of his high AVG was mitigated by his lack of 4 Lorenzo Cain 2014 Batting Splits, Baseball Reference, http://www.baseballreference.com/players/split.cgi?id=cainlo01&year=2014&t=b. 5 Lorenzo Cain Statistics and History, Baseball Reference, http://www.baseballreference.com/players/c/cainlo01.shtml. 6 American League Leaderboards, Fan Graphs, http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=500&type=0&season=2014&month=0&se ason1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0. 7 2
plate discipline, which resulted in a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.5 and produced an OBP of.339, 8 placing Mr. Cain s OBP 56 th overall in the league and 24 th overall among qualified outfielders. 9 Mr. Cain s weak OBP triggered a disappointing 55 runs scored during the season, which ranked 20 th among MLB center fielders and 32 nd among AL outfielders. 10 There is also evidence that Mr. Cain s high AVG was an anomaly that is unlikely to repeat itself. Batting average on balls in play ( BABIP ) measures how often a ball hit into the field of play results in a hit. 11 BABIP can identify situations where a player s statistics may be inflated due to luck or some other anomaly. Mr. Cain s 2014 BABIP was.380, the highest among all MLB center fielders. 12 Where a player s single season BABIP is significantly higher in a particular season compared to their career BABIP it is probable that their statistics were inflated by factors other than the player s skill. Mr. Cain s BAPIP in 2012 and 2013 was.319 and.309, respectively. 13 Such a significant jump is an indication that Mr. Cain s high AVG in 2014 was a result of luck, rather than an indication of his true skill, and as a result his statistics next season are likely to regress. Mr. Cain s most valuable asset is his above average fielding ability. He committed just two errors in 2014, resulting in a fielding percentage of.994. 14 Mr. Cain had eight assists, which tied 8 Lorenzo Cain Statistics and History, Baseball Reference, http://www.baseballreference.com/players/c/cainlo01.shtml. 9 American League Leaderboards, Fan Graphs, http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=500&type=0&season=2014&month=0&se ason1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0. 10 11 A hit ball is in play when the batter s plate appearance results in something other than a strikeout, walk, hit batter, catcher s interference, sacrifice bunt, or homerun. 12 Major League Leaderboards, Fan Graphs, http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=cf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=450&type=2&season=2014&month=0&se ason1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=3,d. By comparison, the second highest BABIP by a center fielder during the 2014 was.363. 13 Lorenzo Cain, Fan Graphs, http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9077&position=of. 14 Lorenzo Cain Statistics and History, Baseball Reference, http://www.baseballreference.com/players/c/cainlo01.shtml. 3
for 21 st among major league outfielders and 9 th best overall in the AL. He also had the 5 th highest range factor among AL centerfielders at 2.60. 15 The range factor calculates the number of putouts a player participates in based on the number of innings they are on defense. The higher an outfielder s ranger factor the more outs they are creating with their ability to cover more of the outfield. III. Length and Consistency of Career Contributions Mr. Cain s career began with the Milwaukee Brewers ( Brewers ), where he was drafted in the 17 th round of the 2004 MLB Amateur Draft. He spent five consecutive seasons in the Brewers minor league system before being called up to the major league roster midway through the 2010 season. He was acquired by the Royals during the offseason. 16 He spent essentially the entire 2011 season in minor leagues before being given the opportunity to be the regular center fielder for the Royals entering the 2012 season. Unfortunately, he missed roughly four months of the 2012 season with a torn hip flexor and a hamstring injury. 17 While Mr. Cain has accrued 3.074 years of MLS, he has only played a majority of a season on a major league roster for the past two seasons. Table 3: Lorenzo Cain s Career Statistics 18 G AB R H HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS 2010 43 147 17 45 1 13 7 9 28.306.348.415.763 2011 6 22 4 6 0 1 0 1 4.273.304.318.623 2012 61 222 27 59 7 31 10 15 56.266.316.419.735 2013 115 399 54 100 4 46 14 33 90.251.310.348.658 2014 133 471 55 142 5 53 28 24 108.301.339.412.751 Total 358 1261 157 352 17 144 59 82 286.279.326.320.718 15 Major League Leaderboards, Fan Graphs, http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=of&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2014&month=0&seas on1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0. 16 Brewers add Greinke in Deal with Royals, MLB, http://m.mlb.com/news/article/16345284/. 17 Lorenzo Cain Expected to Miss Rest of Season with Hamstring Injury, NBC Sports, http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/09/15/lorenzo-cain-expected-to-miss-rest-of-season-with-hamstring-injury/. 18 Lorenzo Cain Statistics and History, Baseball Reference, http://www.baseballreference.com/players/c/cainlo01.shtml. 4
While Mr. Cain s 2013 season was cut short due to injuries, 19 he was on pace to produce HR, RBI, and strikeout totals nearly identical to his 2014 campaign. Mr. Cain s AVG, OBP, and SLG were significantly lower in 2013 compared to 2014, though he was on pace to exceed his runs scored and walk totals from 2014. IV. Past Player Compensation As a reflection of Mr. Cain s inexperience and durability concerns, he has been compensated at or near the major league minimum during the past three seasons. Table 4: Lorenzo Cain s Past Compensation 20 Year Salary 2012 $480,850 2013 $503,175 2014 $546,000 His salary in 2012 reflects the fact that he spent essentially the entire previous season in the minor leagues. Mr. Cain s 2013 and 2014 salaries were the result of his inconsistent performance at the major league level and regular injuries. The Royals have offered Mr. Cain a significant increase in compensation for the 2015 season as a reflection of Mr. Cain s development over the past season and the Club s optimism that he will continue to progress as a regular outfielder in the coming years. V. Comparative Baseball Salaries Based on the salaries of statistically equivalent first-time eligible center fielders, the Royal s offer of $2.1 million accurately compensates Mr. Cain for his production and value to the team and any compensation above the $2.725 midpoint would be unwarranted. 19 Lorenzo Cain Put on Disabled List in Series of KC Roster Moves, Kansas City Star, http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb/kansas-city-royals/article325015/lorenzo-cain-put-on-disabled-list-inseries-of-kc-roster-moves.html. 20 Lorenzo Cain Statistics and History, Baseball Reference, http://www.baseballreference.com/players/c/cainlo01.shtml. 5
a. Gregor Blanco (2013 - $1.35M) Gregor Blanco ( Mr. Blanco ) is a left-handed hitting outfielder for the San Francisco Giants ( Giants ). During the 2012 season he served as the Giant s center field in roughly 22% of the total games he played in while splitting evening between right and left field the balance of his playing time. 21 Entering the 2013 arbitration process, Mr. Blanco was a second-year arbitration eligible player with 2.164 years of MLS. During his platform year, Mr. Blanco appeared in more games than Mr. Cain did during the 2014 season but had 78 fewer at bats. Despite his fewer opportunities, Mr. Blanco equaled or exceeded Mr. Cain s totals for runs scored, home runs, and walks while finishing the season just two stolen bases shy of Mr. Cain s 2014 season total. Table 5: Gregor Blanco ($1.35M) 22 v. Lorenzo Cain Gregor Blanco G AB R HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Platform (2012) 141 393 56 5 34 26 51 104.244.333.344.676 Career 394 1103 144 7 87 52 158 262.253.349.331.680 Lorenzo Cain G AB R HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Platform (2014) 133 471 55 5 53 28 24 108.301.339.412.751 Career 358 1261 157 17 144 59 82 286.279.326.320.718 While Mr. Cain had a significantly higher AVG during his platform year, Mr. Blanco actually posted a nearly identical OBP. Teams are looking for leadoff and bottom of the order hitters, like Mr. Cain and Mr. Blanco, to simply get on base and provide the team s best hitters the chance to drive in runs; whether they get on base with a single or a by a walk is immaterial. Of the 122 games started by Mr. Cain during the 2014 season, he batted first, sixth, seventh, or eighth in the lineup more than 86% of the time. 23 Likewise, of the 55 games started by Mr. Blanco during the 21 Gregor Blanco Statistics and History, Baseball Reference, http://www.baseballreference.com/players/b/blancgr01.shtml. 22 23 Lorenzo Cain 2014 Batting Splits, Baseball Reference, http://www.baseballreference.com/players/split.cgi?id=cainlo01&year=2014&t=b. 6
2012 season, he batted in either the first, second, sixth, seventh, or eighth spot more than 56% of the time. 24 While Mr. Blanco s fielding statistics were not as strong as Mr. Cain s, Mr. Blanco was a respectable defensive outfielder. While Mr. Blanco recorded only three outfield assists during his platform season, he finished with an overall outfield fielding percentage of.989 and a range factor of 1.47. 25 Mr. Blanco s centerfield specific range factor was slightly higher, at 1.70. 26 Like Mr. Cain, Mr. Blanco was valuable in part due to his ability to play multiple outfield positions, allowing the team greater flexibility when making substitutions for pinch runners and pinch hitters in the critical points a game. While Mr. Cain has demonstrated solid fielding talent, the gap between Mr. Blanco s fielding abilities and Mr. Cain s does not justify the substantially higher salary Mr. Cain is seeking. Mr. Cain s 2014 statistics compared to Mr. Blanco s platform year justify a slightly higher salary than the $1.35 million Mr. Blanco was awarded based on his platform year production, but less than the $2.725 million midpoint. b. Gerardo Parra (2013 - $2.35M) Gerardo Parra ( Mr. Parra ) was a left-handed hitting outfielder for the Arizona Diamondbacks ( Diamondbacks ) with 3.145 years of MLS in his 2012 platform season. He played all three outfielder positions, but most commonly played centerfield. 27 During the 2012 season Mr. Parra was most often the Diamondbacks leadoff hitter, while batting either second, seventh, or eighth otherwise. 28 24 25 Gregor Blanco Statistics and History, Baseball Reference, http://www.baseballreference.com/players/b/blancgr01.shtml. 26 27 Gerardo Parra, Statistics and History, Baseball Reference,http://www.baseballreference.com/players/p/parrage01.shtml 28 Gerardo Parra 2012 Batting Splits, Baseball Reference, http://www.baseballreference.com/players/split.cgi?id=parrage01&year=2012&t=b. 7
Table 6: Gerardo Parra 29 ($2.35) v. Lorenzo Cain Gerardo Parra G AB R HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Platform (2012) 133 385 58 7 36 15 33 77.273.335.392.727 Career 527 1649 203 23 172 36 124 324.280.332.400.732 Lorenzo Cain G AB R HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS Platform (2014) 133 471 55 5 53 28 24 108.301.339.412.751 Career 358 1261 157 17 144 59 82 286.279.326.320.718 Mr. Parra had an OBP during his platform year that was nearly identical to Mr. Cain s 2014 OBP, while Mr. Parra also totaled more runs scored and homeruns over the course of the season, all despite having 72 fewer plate appearances. 30 While Mr. Cain had more RBIs than Mr. Parra during their respective platform seasons, this is largely attributable to Mr. Parra s role as the leadoff hitter or second batter in the Diamondbacks lineup a majority of the season, resulting in fewer plate appearances with runners in scoring position ( RISP ) and fewer plate appearances with any runners on base. Table 7: Gerardo Parra v. Lorenzo Cain RBI Opportunities Gerardo Parra 31 PA with RISP PA with Runners on Base Total Platform (2012) 89 140 229 Lorenzo Cain 32 PA with RISP PA with Runners on Base Total Platform (2014) 138 224 362 Like Mr. Cain, Mr. Parra was a decent defensive outfielder. Mr. Parra recorded eight outfield assists during the season, matching Mr. Cain s 2014 assists total, while posting an overall outfield fielding percentage of.980 and a range factor of 1.81. 33 Mr. Parra s centerfield specific fielding statistics were slightly better, with a fielding percentage of.981 and a range factor of 2.10. 34 While those fielding statistics are lower than Mr. Cain s platform season fielding percentage of.994 and 29 30 31 32 Lorenzo Cain 2014 Batting Splits, Baseball Reference, http://www.baseballreference.com/players/split.cgi?id=cainlo01&year=2014&t=b. 33 Gerardo Parra, Statistics and History, Baseball Reference,http://www.baseballreference.com/players/p/parrage01.shtml 34 8
range factor of 2.60, Mr. Parra had a significantly more productive career entering his first year of arbitration in 2013. Mr. Parra had played in more than a full season worth of a major league games compared to Mr. Cain s career games total at the conclusion of the 2014 season. Mr. Parra s vast game experience compared to Mr. Cain justifies Mr. Parra s first year arbitration award of $2.35 million, which is considerably below this arbitration s midpoint of $2.725 million. VI. Existence of Physical or Mental Defects While Mr. Cain s performance when on the field has been valuable to the Royals, his career was been consistently inundated with injuries that have kept him from playing during significant periods each of his three previous major league seasons. The Club demonstrated their confidence in Mr. Cain by making him the team s starting center fielder entering the 2012 season. However, shortly after the start of the season, Mr. Cain suffered a groin injury that landed him on the disabled list. 35 While rehabbing the groin injury he tore his hip flexor, which caused him to spend three months on the disabled list. 36 Mr. Cain returned later in the 2012 campaign but his season ended in August after he injured his right hamstring, his third leg injury in the same season. 37 Instead of being the team s starting center fielder as the Royal s had envisioned at the start of the season, Mr. Cain ended up playing barely more than a third of the season. Mr. Cain s injuries continued to stack up the following season when he suffered a strained left oblique muscle in 2013. The injury resulted in Mr. Cain spending a month on the disabled list and additional recovering time thereafter before he was physically able to perform at full strength. 38 The injury pattern continued during this most recent 2014 season. Only a few games into the 35 Cain Working to Prevent Injuries, Reclaim Job, MLB, http://m.royals.mlb.com/news/article/40283406/. 36 Lorenzo Cain Expected to Miss Rest of Season with Hamstring Injury, NBC Sports, http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/09/15/lorenzo-cain-expected-to-miss-rest-of-season-with-hamstring-injury/. 37 38 Lorenzo Cain Put on Disabled List in Series of KC Roster Moves, Kansas City Star, http://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb/kansas-city-royals/article325015/lorenzo-cain-put-on-disabled-list-inseries-of-kc-roster-moves.html. 9
season Mr. Cain was again injured and spent 17 games on the disabled list with a left groin pull. 39 During the Club s playoff run Mr. Cain was again hampered by leg issues, though was able to avoid a stint on the disabled list. 40 VII. Recent Performance of the Club While the Royals have performed better on the field over the past two seasons, the Club has not won the division since 1985. 41 Attendance also has been consistently poor, with the Club ranking in the bottom third of the AL in total attendance every season since 1992. 42 Table 8: Performance of the Kansas City Royals 43 Year W L Place in AL Central Average Attendance (Kauffman Stadium) Attendance Ranking (AL) 2012 72 90 3 rd 21,480 10 th of 14 2013 86 76 3 rd 21,614 12 th of 15 2014 89 73 2 nd 24,154 11 th of 15 VIII. Conclusion While Mr. Cain has demonstrated that he has the athletic abilities to be a valuable asset to the Royals, his career has been consistently marked by injuries and merely average offensive production. While Mr. Cain s fielding prowess has been one positive consistency throughout his career, the Club is justifiably concerned about the sustainability of his fielding performance in the face of Mr. Cain s recurring leg injuries. Furthermore, despite his high AVG during the 2014 season, there are indications that the team cannot expect a repeat of such a performance next season. Based on Mr. Cain s career statistics and comparable player salaries, the Club respectfully requests that the panel rule in favor of the team s salary offer of $2.1 million for the 2015 season. 39 Lorenzo Cain Returns from Disabled List, Kansas City Star, http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columnsblogs/ball-star/article350292/royals%e2%80%99-lorenzo-cain-returns-from-disabled-list.html. 40 Lorenzo Cain has been Dealing with Leg Issues for Most of the Playoffs, NBC Sports, http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/10/26/lorenzo-cain-has-been-dealing-with-leg-issues-for-most-of-theplayoffs/. 41 Kansas City Royals Attendance, Baseball Reference, http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/kcr/attend.shtml 42 43 10