PREDICTING MUNICIPAL SOLID WASTE GENERATION IN ANDORRA WITH SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODELLING M. Pons, C. Pérez, J.J. de Felipe, E. Jover
OUTLINE 1. INTRODUCTION - Modelling MSW generation - State of Art - Study case context: Andorra 2. METHODOLOGY 3. RESULTS - Scenarios 4. CONCLUSIONS
1. MODELLING MSW GENERATION Why? - Utility Waste management planning To achieve accurate and reliable waste information -Municipal waste collection system -Land demand for landfilling waste - Incinerators capacity evaluation
1. MODELLING MSW GENERATION Traditional statistical forecasting methods Time analysis correlation Regression analysis 1 High quantity and quality data required 1. H. A. Abu Qdais, M. F. Hamoda, J. Newham. "Analysis of Residential Solid Waste at Generation Sites". Waste Management & Research. Vol. 15. pp. 395-405, (1997).
1. MODELLING MSW GENERATION System Dynamics Modelling Fuzzy, not-well defined environments Limited it data Large-scale complex systems Quality of service Causal loops Tourist Offer Infrastructures Visitors Profits Investments Overnight stays
1. MODELLING MSW GENERATION SD Modelling examples MSW generation in San Antonio 1 Waste generation, collection capacity and electricity in Dhaka 2 Based on economic and demographic information 1.Dyson, B., Chang, N.-B., Forecasting municipal solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban region with system dynamics modeling. Waste Management 25 (7), 669-679, (2005). 2. Sufian, M.A., Bala B.K., Modeling of urban solid waste management system: The case of Dhaka city. Waste Management, 27(7), 858-868, (2007).
1. CASE STUDY CONTEXT - ANDORRA Independent d Principality i Population: 84.484484 inhabitants Area: 468 km 2 Pyrenees Tourism main economic activity 10.193.749 visitors in 2008
Case Study context - Andorra 1. CASE STUDY CONTEXT - ANDORRA 300.000 Tourists 2008 250.000 200.000000 TOURISTS 150.000 100.000 50.000 0 Data source: Tourism Department of Andorran Government
Case Study context - Andorra 1. CASE STUDY CONTEXT - ANDORRA 1,40 MSW kg/person/day 1,35 1,30 1,25 1,20 kg 1,15 1,10 1,05 1,00 0,95 0,90 Data source: Environmental Department of Andorran Government
1. MSW GENERATION ON TOURISTIC AREAS Balearic Islands: MSW Generation /person /day Winter 1,5 kg Summer 2,5 kg
1. MSW GENERATION ON TOURISTIC AREAS 10 6 kg 8 7,5 7 6,5 6 5,5 5 4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 TORREVIEJA URBAN WASTE 2001 1 High impact of visitors flows on waste generation Lack of models integrating visitors influence 1. J.F. Vera Rebollo and J.A. Ivars Baidal, Measuring Sustainability in a Mass Tourist Destination: Pressures, Perceptions and Policy Responses in Torrevieja, Spain. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 11, 181-203, (2003).
2. METHODOLOGY Model tackling with: - Data scarcity - Importance of visitors flows SD based on: - Economic - Demographic - Visitors flows
2. METHODOLOGY: DYNAMICS SYSTEMS MODEL
2. METHODOLOGY: POPULATION POPULATION TOTAL MSW GENERATION
2. METHODOLOGY: GDP RESIDENT POPULATION ECONOMIC TOTAL MSW GENERATION
2. METHODOLOGY: TOURISTS TOURISTS RESIDENT POPULATION VISITORS ECONOMIC TOTAL MSW GENERATION
2. METHODOLOGY: TOURISTS TOURISTS ONE-DAY VISITORS RESIDENT POPULATION VISITORS ECONOMIC TOTAL MSW GENERATION
2. METHODOLOGY: POPULATION POPULATION TOTAL MSW GENERATION
2. METHODOLOGY: DYNAMICS SYSTEMS MODEL
3. RESULTS: SCENARIOS AS USUAL SCENARIO HYPOTHESIS: Annual variation rate of variables POPULATION + 1 % Dolars 2400,0 2350,0 2300,0 2250,00 2200,0 2150,0 2100,0 2050,0 2000,0 1950,00 1900,0 GDP GDP TOURISTS - 1,7 % -1,2% +1,5% +3% ONE DAY VISITORS - 1,3 %
4. CONCLUSIONS SD Model integrating ti demographic and economic parameters as well as tourist flows Correlation between visitor flows and MSW generation Compulsory when studying tourist destinations To validate the model FURTHER WORK To model the recovering energy capacity To collaborate with local administrations
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS for their collaboration for a fellowship and ALL OF YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!!