MAY 21, 2016 PIMLICO American Pharoah and jockey Victor Espinoza (on rail) splash home victoriously in the 2015 Preakness 866.88XPRESS (866.889.7737) National Gambling Support Line 800.522.4700
Fellow Racing Fan, Welcome to Xpressbet s Preakness Wager Guide! Congratulations to the connections of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist owners Zillah and Paul Reddam, trainer Doug O Neill, his crew and jockey Mario Gutierrez. The Kentucky Derby, first leg of the Triple Crown, is in the books and Nyquist is headed to Pimlico for the Preakness Stakes in an attempt to move one step closer to becoming the 13th Triple Crown winner in history. It s probably prudent to leave actual Preakness handicapping to the experts and Xpressbet s free Preakness Wager Guide has a group of veterans who know their way around the track. We ve recruited top handicappers, writers and broadcasters to examine the race Analysis, Main Contenders, Value Plays and $100 Wagering Strategies. Additionally, just about everything you ll need to handicap the race like a pro is in the guide. You ll also find useful Stats & Trends, a handy Exotic Wagering Chart and much more. Xpressbet covers the race from top to bottom in the guide and also on the web site, including daily guide updates beginning Tuesday, May 17 and a revised guide online Friday, May 20. Xpressbet will offer online, phone and mobile device wagering on the final two legs of the Triple Crown Preakness and Belmont Stakes (June 11). We invite you to wager with us for these outstanding events and throughout the racing year. As a current account holder you already know that Xpressbet is the best place to watch and wager on worldwide harness and Thoroughbred racing. If you don t already have an Xpressbet account, act now and earn up to $125 in bonus wagering credit! Complete details are available at Xpressbet.com. Please enjoy this complimentary Preakness Wager Guide and return to Xpressbet for daily guide updates and to wager on the Preakness, the Belmont and non-stop, daily worldwide racing action. The folks at Xpressbet wish you an entertaining and profitable 2016 Preakness Stakes and we look forward to serving as your advance deposit wagering account provider for the big day and into the future. Sincerely, Ron Luniewski President Xpressbet
Preakness Wagering Facts by Jeremy Plonk Horseplayernow.com Below are some informative wagering tidbits from past Preakness Stakes events. Win-Place-Show Odds (Last 15 years, Odds to $1) Win Odds Average: 4.29 High: 15.40 (Oxbow, 2013) Low:.20 (Big Brown, 2008) Notable: Preakness winner has been 3-1 or less in 12 of the last 15 years. Place Odds Average: 15.16 High: 45.70 (Magic Weisner, 2002) Low: 1.30 (Street Sense, 2007) Notable: 4 times in the last 15 years the runner-up has been 20-1 or more. Show Odds Average: 10.89 High: 29.40 (Hemingway s Key, 2006) Low: 2.80 (Congaree, 2001) Notable: No show horse under 4-1 odds since 2001. Exacta Payoffs (Last 15 years, $2 Payoffs) Average: $116.19 High: $327.00 (War Emblem-Magic Weisner, 2002) Low: $18.20 (California Chrome-Ride On Curlin, 2014) Notable: Last year s exacta paid $114.40 despite heavilyfavored American Pharoah winning. Trifecta Payoffs (Last 15 years, $1 Payoffs) Average: $683.50 High: $3,912.80 (Bernardini-Sweetnorthernsaint-Hemingway s Key, 2006) Low: $35.40 (I ll Have Another-Bodemeister-Creative Cause, 2012) Notable: Once since 2012 the trifecta paid 300-1 or more. Superfecta Payoffs (Last 15 years, $1 Payoffs) Average: $3,929.78 High: $11,151.20 (Bernardini-Sweetnorthernsaint-Hemingway s Key- Brother Derek, 2006) Low: $173.80 (California Chrome-Ride On Curlin-Social Inclusion- General a Rod, 2014) Notable: Only 4 times in the bet s 18-year history has the superfecta returned a 5-digit payoff. Highest-Priced Superfecta Finishers (Last 15 Years, Odds to $1) Odds Horse Year Fin. 45.70 Magic Weisner 2002 2nd 39.90 Macho Again 2008 2nd 29.40 Hemingway s Key 2006 3rd 28.50 Tale of Verve 2015 2nd 25.40 Flying Private 2009 4th 25.10 Racecar Rhapsody 2008 4th Lowest-Priced Favorites (Last 15 Years, Odds to $1) Odds Horse Year Fin..20 Big Brown 2008 1st.50 California Chrome 2014 1st.50 Barbaro 2006 dnf.70 Smarty Jones 2004 1st.70 Orb 2013 4th.90 American Pharoah 2015 1st 1.30 Street Sense 2007 2nd 1.80 Rachel Alexandra 2009 1st 1.90 Funny Cide 2003 1st 1.90 Super Saver 2010 8th Expert Selection Grid Expert Bob Neumeier Jeremy Plonk Jeff Siegel Jon White Dick Jerardi Steve Byk (NBC Sports) (Horseplayernow.com) (XBTV) (Santa Anita) (Daily Racing Form) (SiriusXM Radio) First Nyquist Nyquist Nyquist Nyquist Nyquist Nyquist Second Exaggerator Cherry Wine Stradivari Exaggerator Dazzling Gem Gun Runner Third Stradivari Exaggerator Exaggerator Collected Exaggerator Dazzling Gem Fourth Gun Runner Stradivari Gun Runner Stradivari Collected Cherry Wine Revised Wager Guide AVAILABLE ONLINE FRIDAY, MAY 20
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Meet The 2016 Preakness Contenders by Johnny D Xpressbet.com Nyquist The winner of the 142nd Kentucky Derby extended his unbeaten record to eight races by outrunning 19 foes on the First Saturday in May. Nyquist stalked a hot early Derby pace, took the lead in the stretch, and never really was threatened by the closing bid of runner-up EXAGGERATOR. Can Nyquist extend his unblemished record through the Preakness and on to the Belmont? Why not? He s fast, tractable, brave and very talented. He s got a fantastic demeanor and experienced connections that have been there before with I ll Have Another in 2012, a bid for Triple Crown immortality that ended just short of the Belmont starting gate. Nyquist will be an overwhelming favorite in Baltimore and by extension, the choice to have a chance to deliver fans back-to-back Triple Crowns. PREAKNESS WINNERS AS HORSE OF THE YEAR Year Horse 2015...AMERICAN PHAROAH 2014...CALIFORNIA CHROME 2009...RACHEL ALEXANDRA 2007...CURLIN 2001...POINT GIVEN 1999...CHARISMATIC 1989...SUNDAY SILENCE Exaggerator 1978...AFFIRMED It s understandable if Exaggerator 1977...SEATTLE SLEW is beginning to develop a complex. 1973...SECRETARIAT He s been defeated four times by NYQUIST and that s as many times 1967...DAMASCUS as they ve met. Exaggerator isn t 1957...BOLD RULER accustomed to losing to anyone else. 1955...NASHUA In fact, in 10 starts he s only lost twice 1950...HILL PRINCE to a winning foe other than NYQUIST. 1949...CAPOT If Exaggerator is a bit NYQUISTshy, his trainer, Keith Desormeaux, 1948...CITATION must be downright terrified of the 1946...ASSAULT Kentucky Derby winner. He has 1943...COUNT FLEET saddled a horse to finish second to 1941...WHIRLAWAY NYQUIST in an absolutely amazing six out of eight races, including five 1939...CHALLEDON Grade 1s! Desormeaux-trained Swipe 1937...WAR ADMIRAL was second to NYQUIST four times and Exaggerator has completed the NYQUIST-over-all exacta twice. With those trends in place it figures that the Preakness exacta can t possibly come back any way other than NYQUIST over Exaggerator just like the Kentucky Derby. Will Exaggerator find an extra gear in the Preakness Stakes and finally cure the barn s case of NYQUIST-induced seconditis? Gun Runner The Louisiana Derby winner was close to a hot early pace in the Kentucky Derby, but couldn t manage to outkick winner NYQUIST and runner-up EXAGGERATOR home. Third, but merely a head and a nose from being fifth, Gun Runner may appreciate the shorter mile and threesixteenths distance of the Preakness Stakes more than he did the mile and one-quarter Kentucky Derby trip. Gun Runner now has four wins, a third and a fourth out of six career starts. He lists the Risen Star at Fair Grounds, an allowance race at Keeneland and a Churchill Downs maiden race among his triumphs. He s got enough speed to sit just off a hot pace, and enough kick to spurt toward leaders late so that style puts him in the game when the real running starts. Suddenbreakingnews This gelding finished fifth in the Kentucky Derby, but was flying so fast at the finish that in another stride he might have caught both MOHAYMEN and GUN RUNNER to finish third. A mere nose and head were between Suddenbreakingnews and an in-the-money Kentucky Derby placing. He will attempt to improve upon that finish in the Preakness Stakes. The ward of veteran trainer, Donnie Von Hemel, has utilized a deep-closing style to great advantage in winning three of nine starts. However, as it is said, those who live by the sword also die by the sword, and Suddenbreakingnews often has encountered traffic trouble along the way home, costing him precious momentum in the stretch. He s been second four times in nine starts, a reflection of his lack of early speed and need to rally from the clouds. Early in the Kentucky Derby, he raced next to last in the 20-horse field, making an extremely wide move to contention on the turn for home, and surrendered precious ground in the process. Will his late kick be enough to collar the leaders at Revised Wager Guide AVAILABLE ONLINE FRIDAY, MAY 20
Caveat Emptor by Bob Neumeier NBC Sports Reporter Analysis: Handicappers are by nature copycats. They believe what happened yesterday will also occur later today. Of course, that rarely happens. But in NYQUIST S case, it is caveat emptor translated, let-the-buyer-beware. His big win in the Kentucky Derby looks to the naked eye like what SHOULD happen in the Preakness Stakes, only at 1-5 odds, not 2-1. The scenario looks like a carbon copy. NYQUIST uses his cruising speed to stalk a rapid pace, takes over at will, and draws off to yet another victory. So, if you believe it (and I do), to defy his unblemished record is truly a case of caveat emptor. Main Contenders: NYQUIST, of course. EXAGGERATOR will try for the fifth time to defeat his nemesis. His second-place finish in the Derby was impressive, but he looks more likely to play the part of an also-ran, like Sham and Alydar chasing foes in Triple Crown history. GUN RUNNER was solid near the front in Louisville. If you seek fresh blood, STRADIVARI may be the choice. He s 2-for-2 around two turns and trained by the talented Todd Pletcher. His 3-yearold speed figure measures up, although his last victory came in a first-level allowance at Keeneland. Value Plays: Yikes. If you back the unbeaten NYQUIST, then the win pool is out. The next stop is the will pays for the exacta pool to try and hit the 1-2 finishers and increase the 1-5 value on the Derby champion. But then whom do you choose? My plan is to load up on the same combination that clicked at Churchill Downs in the exacta NYQUIST over EXAGGERATOR. Price shoppers will go hunting that the chalk has an off day. About 90% of the time, that is my personal choice to click on a long-haul basis. Not now. Wagering Strategies ($100): $60 Exacta: NYQUIST over EXAGGERATOR ($60) $20 Exacta: NYQUIST over STRADIVARI ($20) $20 Exacta: NYQUIST over GUN RUNNER ($20) Picks Preakness Stakes History: The Last... Kentucky Derby winner to win: American Pharoah (2015) Kentucky Derby runner-up to win: Prairie Bayou (1993) Kentucky Derby show horse to win: Curlin (2007) Kentucky Derby off-the-board finisher to win: Oxbow (2013) Non-Kentucky Derby alum to win: Rachel Alexandra (2009) 1. NYQUIST 2. EXAGGERATOR Stats & Trends: Derby Winners in Preakness (Last 15 Years) Year Horse Fin. Odds 2015 American Pharoah 1st 4-5* 2014 California Chrome 1st 1-2* 2013 Orb 4th 3-5* 2012 I ll Have Another 1st 3-1 2011 Animal Kingdom 2nd 2-1* 2010 Super Saver 8th 9-5* 2009 Mine That Bird 2nd 6-1 2008 Big Brown 1st 1-5* 2007 Street Sense 2nd 6-5* 2006 Barbaro dnf 1-2* 2005 Giacomo 3rd 6-1 2004 Smarty Jones 1st 3-5* 2003 Funny Cide 1st 9-5* 2002 War Emblem 1st 5-2* 2001 Monarchos 6th 2-1 *Preakness Favorite Derby Runner-Ups in Preakness (Last 15 Years) Year Horse Fin. Odds 2015 Firing Line 7th 3-1 2014 did not compete -- -- 2013 did not compete -- -- 2012 Bodemeister 2nd 8-5* 2011 did not compete -- -- 2010 did not compete -- -- 2009 Pioneerof The Nile 11th 6-1 2008 did not compete -- -- 2007 Hard Spun 3rd 4-1 2006 did not compete -- -- 2005 Closing Argument 9th 7-1 2004 Lion Heart 4th 9-2 2003 did not compete -- -- 2002 Proud Citizen 3rd 7-1 2001 did not compete -- -- Know This: Derby Do-Over 10 times in the last 19 years the Kentucky Derby winner has won the Preakness. 3. STRADIVARI 4. GUN RUNNER Revised Wager Guide Available Friday, May 20
Exotic Wagering Chart Preakness Day can produce some juicy exotic payoffs. Use this handy Exotic Wagering Chart to plan your attack. EXACTA BOX: ($1 Wager) 2 horse box... $2 3 horse box... $6 4 horse box...$12 5 horse box...$20 6 horse box...$30 7 horse box...$42 8 horse box...$56 EXACTA WHEEL: ($1 Wager) One Horse with All 6 horse field... $5 7 horse field... $6 8 horse field... $7 9 horse field... $8 10 horse field... $9 TRIFECTA BOX: ($.50 Wager) 3 Horse Box... $3 4 Horse Box... $12 5 Horse Box...$30 6 Horse Box...$60 7 Horse Box...$105 8 Horse Box...$168 TRIFECTA WHEEL: ($.50 Wager) One Horse with All with All (Example: 1/All/All or All/1/All or All/All/1) 7 Horse Field...$15 8 Horse Field...$21 9 Horse Field...$28 10 Horse Field...$36 One Horse with Two Horses with All (Example: 1/2,3/All or 2,3/1/All or 1/All/2,3 or 2,3/All/1 or All/1/2,3 or All/2,3/1) 7 Horse Field... $5 8 Horse Field... $6 9 Horse Field... $7 10 Horse Field... $8 TRIFECTA KEY: ($.50 Wager) 1 Horse with 3 others... $3 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4/ 2, 3, 4) 1 Horse with 4 others... $6 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5/ 2, 3, 4, 5) 1 Horse with 5 others...$10 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) 1 Horse with 6 others...$15 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) 1 Horse with 7 others...$21 (Example: 1/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8) SUPERFECTA BOX: ($.10 Wager) 4 Horse Box... $2.40 5 Horse Box...$12 6 Horse Box...$36 SUPERFECTA WHEEL: ($.10 Wager) One Horse with All with All with All (Example: 1/All/All/All or All/1/All/All or All/All/1/All or All/ All/ All/1) 7 Horse Field.... $12 8 Horse Field....$21 9 Horse Field....$33.60 10 Horse Field...$50.40 One Horse with Two Horses with All with All (Example: 1/2,3/All/All or 2,3/1/All/All or 1/All/All/ 2,3 or 2,3/All/All/1 or All/All/1/ 2,3 or All/All/2,3/ 1) 7 Horse Field.... $4 8 Horse Field.... $6 9 Horse Field.... $8.40 10 Horse Field...$11.20 SUPERFECTA KEY: ($.10 Wager) 1 Horse with 3 others... $.60 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4/2, 3, 4) 1 Horse with 4 others... $2.40 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5/2, 3, 4, 5) 1 Horse with 5 others... $6 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6/2, 3, 4, 5, 6) 1 Horse with 6 others...$12 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7) 1 Horse with 7 others...$21 (Example: 1/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8/2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8) Revised Wager Guide AVAILABLE ONLINE FRIDAY, MAY 20
Fluke-less Derby Winner by Jeremy Plonk Horseplayernow.com Analyst Analysis: The Kentucky Derby victory by NYQUIST clocked in the Top 15 all-time at nearly every point of call, including the wire. So, while the speed and performance gurus got it wrong on this runner heading into Louisville, the public did not. At 2.30-to-1 odds, NYQUIST was the heaviest favorite in a Kentucky Derby field of 20 in nearly 80 years. That s about as all-in for a favorite as you can be, and when the 1-2-3-4 betting choices at post time click the superfecta in exact order, it s hard to imagine any fluky explanation. Now we head to Pimlico with only a few possibilities to flip the script. Main Contenders: NYQUIST obviously stands out. Derby runner-up EXAGGERATOR has four times fallen short of his rival, but the Alydar to this Affirmed has narrowed the margin of defeat in each and every bid so far. Former Maryland riding kingpin Kent Desormeaux could be worth an extra length or two at his old Pimlico stomping grounds, but EXAGGERATOR also will need to find more stretch punch than he s shown over fast tracks to date or get a Santa Anita Derby-like pace meltdown. Derby third, GUN RUNNER, would seem to fit the Preakness profile near the tempo. Rising star, STRADIVARI, immediately harkened Preakness when dominating a good allowance field at Keeneland. Todd Pletcher rarely shows up with a runner in the middle jewel, so if he s got one here, take notice. Value Plays: With a tremendous amount of new speed possible for the Preakness, including LAOBAN, AWESOME SPEED and COLLECTED, the early pressure could set this race up to fall apart to deep closers for the underneath positions. Certainly SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS would fit that mold, but my gut tells me he ll head to Belmont instead. CHERRY WINE should offer a fair price from off the pace and Rebel Stakes alumni have been pure dynamite in this race historically. Wagering Strategies ($100): $100 Exacta: NYQUIST over CHERRY WINE ($100) Or $50 Exactas (if the latter enters): NYQUIST over CHERRY WINE and SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS ($100) Picks Xpressbet Preakness Derby Wager Guide free daily online updates with revised Analysis, Picks and Wagering Strategies begin Tuesday, May 17. Stats & Trends: Fastest Preakness Stakes Year Horse Time 1973 Secretariat 1:53 1985 Tank s Prospect 1:53 2/5 1996 Louis Quatorze 1:53 2/5 2007 Curlin 1:53 2/5 1984 Gate Dancer 1:53 3/5 1990 Summer Squall 1:53 3/5 1989 Sunday Silence 1:53 4/5 Fastest Fractions Dist. Time Horse 1/4 :22 2/5 (Tied 4 times) 1/2 :45 Bold Forbes (1976) 3/4 1:09 Bold Forbes (1976) Mile 1:34 1/5 Sunday Silence (1989) Chief s Crown (1985) Secretariat (1973) Final 1:53 Secretariat (1973) Half-Mile Leaders Year Horse Finish 2015 American Pharoah 1st 2014 Pablo Del Monte 6th 2013 Oxbow 1st 2012 Bodemeister 2nd 2011 Flashpoint 14th 2010 First Dude 2nd 2009 Rachel Alexandra 1st 2008 Gayego 11th Know This: The New Crew Since 1983, the only Preakness winners who skipped the Kentucky Derby were Red Bullet in 2000, Bernardini in 2006 and Rachel Alexandra in 2009. No-Reach Zone Only 2 horses have won the Preakness at odds of 20-1 or more. 1. NYQUIST 2. CHERRY WINE 3. EXAGGERATOR 4. STRADIVARI Revised Wager Guide Available Friday, May 20
What Else You Got? by Jeff Siegel XBTV Analyst Analysis: You may have thought a $6.60 winning payoff for an unbeaten, Breeders Cup winning, Eclipse Award champion in the Kentucky Derby was, in retrospect, generous. It was, but don t count on getting anywhere near that same price in the Preakness. Those who doubted the credentials of NYQUIST entering the first jewel of the Triple Crown focused primarily on his modest speed figures, especially in route races, and his pedigree, which leaned much more towards speed than stamina and therefore placed doubt over his ability to handle the Derby s 10-furlong trip. Those questions were answered, emphatically. Now, what else you got? Main Contenders: STRADIVARI has started only three times and has never faced stakes competition, but he s won his last two by a combined 25 1/2-lengths and he earned a triple-digit Beyer number in his most recent outing. He may very well have more raw talent than any horse NYQUIST has ever faced. Value Plays: There will be plenty of value available if you re committed to beating NYQUIST, but if you find that exercise futile, you d better have a strong opinion in the exacta or trifecta. STRADIVARI may not be seasoned enough to handle NYQUIST, but he s good enough to beat everybody else. And his style suggests he ll draft into an ideal second-flight position and have every chance to pounce when it counts. Wagering Strategies ($100): $80 Exacta: NYQUIST over STRADIVARI ($80) $20 Exacta: STRADIVARI over NYQUIST ($20) Nyquist Extras He is the eighth unbeaten Derby winner in history, first to be 8-for-8 since Majestic Prince (1969). He is the first unbeaten 2-year-old champion to win the Kentucky Derby since Seattle Slew (1977, won Triple Crown) and joins Morvich (1922) and Regret (1915, champion 2-year-old filly of 14) as just the fourth runner ever to complete the parlay. Nyquist s $6.60 Kentucky Derby win payoff matches Fusaichi Pegasus (2000) as lowest $2 win payoff since Spectacular Bid $3.20 in 1979. He was the heaviest individual favorite (2.30-to-1) in a 20-horse Derby field since War Admiral in 1937 (won at 1.60-to-1). Picks 1. NYQUIST 2. STRADIVARI Stats & Trends: Wire-to-Wire Winners (Last 50 Years) Year Horse 2015 American Pharoah* 2013 Oxbow * 2009 Rachel Alexandra * 1996 Louis Quartorze * 1982 Aloma s Ruler 1972 Bee Bee Bee *Did not lead at start call. Last-to-First Winners (Since 1910) Year Horse Strs. Behind ½ Mile 1974 Little Current 13 10 1/2 lengths 1961 Carry Back 9 14 1/2 lengths 1952 Blue Man 10 13 1/2 lengths 1941 Whirlaway 9 9 lengths Successful Locals (Last 25 Years) Year Horse Fin. 2006 Sweetnorthernsaint 2nd 2005 Scrappy T 2nd 2002 Magic Weisner 2nd 1997 Captain Bodgit 3rd 1995 Oliver s Twist 2nd Know This: It s Good to be a Rebel Last year, American Pharoah joined an impressive recent list of Oaklawn Park s Rebel Stakes alumni to succeed in the Preakness: Smarty Jones (2004), Afleet Alex (2005), Curlin (2007), Lookin At Lucky (2010) and Oxbow (2013). Bet-Back Special American Pharoah was the 11th Derby winner in the last 15 years to be the Preakness favorite. 3. EXAGGERATOR 4. GUN RUNNER Revised Wager Guide Available Friday, May 20
All Signs Point to Nyquist by Jon White Santa Anita Morning Line Oddsmaker Analysis: Based on past results, the 2016 Preakness winner probably ran in the Kentucky Derby. Only three of the last 32 Preakness winners (Red Bullet in 2000, Bernardini in 2006 and Rachel Alexandra in 2009) did not start in the Derby. Additionally, in the last 14 years the Kentucky Derby winner often has gone on to take the Preakness--three of the last four years and seven of the last 14. That bodes well for undefeated NYQUIST, who extended his winning streak to eight in the Run for the Roses. Main Contenders: The main contenders are the first two finishers in the Kentucky Derby, NYQUIST and EXAGGERATOR. These two talented colts, well clear of the other 18 starters at the finish of the Kentucky Derby, now have met four times, with NYQUIST winning each. Can EXAGGERATOR finally defeat NYQUIST in the Preakness? It s doubtful, though not impossible. EXAGGERATOR was gaining on NYQUIST toward the end of the Derby, but the shorter distance of the Preakness probably works in NYQUIST S favor. Perhaps the best hope for EXAGGERATOR and those trying to beat NYQUIST in Baltimore is if coming bªck in just two weeks somehow is too much for NYQUIST to handle. But even that seems unlikely because NYQUIST is going into the Preakness relatively fresh, having made just two starts this year before the Kentucky Derby. Value Plays: COLLECTED won the Lexington Stakes by four-lengths at Keeneland for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who has won the Preakness six times, including last year with Triple Crown conqueror American Pharoah. STRADIVARI looked terrific when he won his initial 2016 start by 14 1/2-lengths at Keeneland, but I was not nearly as impressed by his subsequent workout in company at Churchill Downs with Destin who then finished sixth in the Kentucky Derby. Wagering Strategies ($100): $100 Exacta: NYQUIST over EXAGGERATOR ($100) Picks Preakness Stakes History: The Last... Kentucky Derby exacta to repeat 1-2 in Preakness: I ll Have Another-Bodemeister (2012) Kentucky Derby trifecta to repeat 1-2-3 in Preakness: Affirmed-Alydar-Believe It (1978) Gelding to win: Funny Cide (2003) 1. NYQUIST 2. EXAGGERATOR Stats & Trends: Failed Derby Winners Year Horse Fin. 2010 Super Saver 8th 2006 Barbaro dnf 2001 Monarchos 6th 1991 Strike The Gold 6th 1984 Swale 7th 1983 Sunny s Halo 6th 1970 Dust Commander 9th 1965 Lucky Debonair 7th 1962 Decidedly 8th 1923 Zev 12th Winners Who Skipped Derby (Since 1970) Year Horse 2009 Rachel Alexandra 2006 Bernardini 2000 Red Bullet 1983 Deputed Testamony 1982 Aloma s Ruler 1980 Codex 1972 Bee Bee Bee Where Winners Were Bred Wins State 96 Kentucky 8 Maryland 7 Florida 6 Pennsylvania 6 Virginia Know This: Well, Excluuuuude Me! With apologies to comedian Steve Martin, horses excluded from the Kentucky Derby have had solid success at Pimlico. Tale of Verve was runner-up here a year ago; Hemingway s Key was third in 06; and Rock Hard Ten was second in 04. 3. COLLECTED 4. STRADIVARI Revised Wager Guide Available Friday, May 20
Gem of an Exacta by Dick Jerardi Daily Racing Form Columnist Analysis: The Kentucky Derby had just a few speed horses and one of them, NYQUIST, also happened to be the best horse. It was domination from the start, NYQUIST looking like the winner every step of the trip. Accomplished Derby winners rarely lose the Preakness and NYQUIST, with his perfect record, nearly $5 million in earnings and five Grade 1 wins at five different tracks, is incredibly accomplished. There is a chance the Preakness could have a few more speed horses than the Derby, but NYQUIST is as versatile as he is fast so it is hard to imagine an uncomfortable scenario. There is also this: NYQUIST is fast enough to have been on or just off the lead in four sprint races, so even when it looks like there is other speed, NYQUIST often outruns that speed from the start. This horse s style reminds me of Smarty Jones, another unbeaten Derby winner who went on to win the Preakness by the biggest margin in the race s history. Main Contenders: NYQUIST was nine-lengths in front of EXAGGERATOR at the quarter pole in the Derby, one and one-quarter lengths at the finish. That sounds interesting unless you kept watching past the wire. NYQUIST S lead actually was extended during the gallop out. EXAGGERATOR was never going by. Trailing in second and third behind NYQUIST in Kentucky were horses that had combined to win the Santa Anita Derby, Delta Jackpot, Saratoga Special, Louisiana Derby and Risen Star. The key word is trailing. NYQUIST has finished in front of 79 horses so far, including poor EXAGGERATOR four times. EXAGGERATOR is 4-for-6 in races that do not include NYQUIST. Several of the newcomers have serious early speed and good speed figures. They would include LAOBAN, STRADIVARI and UNCLE LINO. Value Plays: Good luck trying to beat NYQUIST, but if you must try, you could do worse than to fall on Lexington Stakes winner COLLECTED, an improving colt that will need another big jump to win. DAZZLING GEM could round out the exacta exiting a solid fourth in the Arkansas Derby. Wagering Strategies ($100): $100 Exacta: NYQUIST over DAZZLING GEM ($100) Nyquist Extras Nyquist s $4.95 million earned is the second-most ever exiting a Derby. Smarty Jones $5 million Centennial Season Bonus from Oaklawn Park pushed him to $6,763,155. Nyquist s 2:01.31 Kentucky Derby time rates 14th-best in history and fastest since Funny Cide in 2003. Picks 1. NYQUIST 2. DAZZLING GEM Stats & Trends: Race of Champions (Preakness Winner was Champion 3-year-old in 13 of the last 15 years.) Year Horse 2015 American Pharoah 2014 California Chrome 2012 I ll Have Another 2010 Lookin At Lucky 2009 Rachel Alexandra (filly) 2008 Big Brown 2007 Curlin 2006 Bernardini 2005 Afleet Alex 2004 Smarty Jones 2003 Funny Cide 2002 War Emblem 2001 Point Given 2015 Preakness Handle (Millions, Except for Double) Pool Handle Win,Place, Show $19.5 Trifecta $11.7 Exacta $ 9.0 Superfecta $ 6.5 Pick Four $ 2.4 Susan /Preakness Double $677k Largest Preakness Crowds Attendance Year Winner 131,680 2015 American Pharoah 123,469 2014 California Chrome 121,309 2012 I ll Have Another 121,264 2007 Curlin Know This: Fenced In In the last 65 years, four starters from the rail have won the Preakness American Pharoah (2015), Tabasco Cat (1994), Bally Ache (1960) and Hill Prince (1950). 3. EXAGGERATOR 4. COLLECTED Revised Wager Guide Available Friday, May 20
Empty Net Goal for Nyquist by Steve Byk At the Races with Steve Byk (SiriusXM) Host Analysis: As mentioned annually, runners contesting the Preakness off favorable (or forgivable) Derby efforts should be the foundation of your wagers. In the last 14 Preakness editions, 12 winners of the Woodlawn Vase arrived from Louisville after positive results. Bernardini (2006) and Rachel Alexandra (2009) were exceptions. 2016 Preakness analysis starts with four from the Derby Hi-5, assuming GUN RUNNER and SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS make the trip. Main Contenders: It appears this Preakness will feature more authentic pace types than the Derby, but it s been established that NYQUIST can adjust to most conceivable scenarios. It s hard to envision a development where any of the Derby runners or newcomers deny him. GUN RUNNER ran the kind of third at Churchill that reminds of Shackleford and Oxbow in their Derby runs ahead of success in Baltimore. EXAGGERATOR was courageous in defeat two weeks ago but the record of Derby runners up in Maryland is weak. Value Plays: DAZZLING GEM and CHERRY WINE fell just short with bids to make the Derby gate but have had extra time to prepare for the Preakness and have worked well toward that end. Both own styles that should fit into the race flow well. Talented, developing UNCLE LINO forced his way into the field by following up his Santa Anita Derby third with a win in the California Chrome Stakes, but will have to be better than LAOBAN, COLLECTED, STRADIVARI and AWESOME SPEED on the front end. Wagering Strategies ($100): $5 Trifecta Key: NYQUIST with GUN RUNNER, DAZZLING GEM, CHERRY WINE, EXAGGERATOR and SUDDENBREAKINGNEWS ($100) West Coast Derby Winners in Preakness Since 89 Year Horse Finish 2016 Nyquist TBD 2015 American Pharoah 1st 2014 California Chrome 1st 2012 I ll Have Another 1st 2005 Giacomo 3rd 2000 Fusaichi Pegasus 2nd 1999 Charismatic 1st 1998 Real Quiet 1st 1997 Silver Charm 1st 1989 Sunday Silence 1st Stats & Trends: Longshot Winners (15-1 Odds or Higher) $2 Payoff Horse Year $48.80 Master Derby 1975 $45.60 Coventry 1925 $40.70 Display 1926 $39.40 Bee Bee Bee 1972 $32.80 Oxbow 2013 $32.00 Hindus 1900 $32.00 Don Enrique 1907 New Millennium Blowouts Lengths Horse Year 11 1/2 Smarty Jones 2004 9 3/4 Funny Cide 2003 7 American Phoarah 2015 5 1/4 Big Brown 2008 5 1/4 Bernardini 2006 Baffert s Baltimore Beauties Year Preakness Winner 2015 American Pharoah 2010 Lookin At Lucky 2002 War Emblem 2001 Point Given 1998 Real Quiet 1997 Silver Charm Know This: Two Digits Too Much? Only four horses have finished worse than ninth in the Kentucky Derby and rebounded to win the Preakness most recently Louis Quatorze in 1996 (16th). More Than Half Favorites are a strong 72-for-141 in the Preakness; odds-on choices are now 18-for-28 after American Pharoah s popular score at 4-to-5. Picks 1. NYQUIST 2. GUN RUNNER 3. DAZZLING GEM 4. CHERRY WINE Revised Wager Guide Available Friday, May 20