Slippery Slope? Assessing he Economic Impac of he 2002 Winer Olympic Games in Sal Lake Ciy, Uah By Rober A. Baade, Rober Baumann, and Vicor A. Maheson November 2008 COLLEGE OF THE HOLY CROSS, DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS FACULTY RESEARCH SERIES, PAPER NO. 08-15 * Deparmen of Economics College of he Holy Cross Box 45A Worceser, Massachuses 01610 (508) 793-3362 (phone) (508) 793-3708 (fax) hp://www.holycross.edu/deparmens/economics/websie * All papers in he Holy Cross Working Paper Series should be considered draf versions subjec o fuure revision. Commens and suggesions are welcome.
Slippery Slope? Assessing he Economic Impac of he 2002 Winer Olympic Games in Sal Lake Ciy, Uah By Rober A. Baade Rober Baumann Lake Fores College College of he Holy Cross and Vicor A. Maheson College of he Holy Cross November 2008 Absrac This paper provides an empirical examinaion of he 2002 Winer Olympic Games in Sal Lake Ciy, Uah. Our analysis of axable sales in he counies in which Olympic evens ook place finds ha some secors such as hoels and resaurans prospered while oher reailers such as general merchandisers and deparmen sores suffered. Overall he gains in he hospialiy indusry are lower han he losses experienced by oher secors in he economy. Given he experience of Uah, poenial Olympic hoss should exercise cauion before proceeding down he slippery slope of bidding for his even.. JEL Classificaion Codes: L83, O18, R53 Keywords: spors, Olympics, impac analysis, mega-even, ourism Rober A. Baade, Deparmen of Economics and Business, Lake Fores College, Lake Fores, IL 60045, 847-735-5136 (phone), 847-735-6193 (fax), baade@lfc.edu Rober Baumann, Deparmen of Economics, Box 192A, College of he Holy Cross, Worceser, MA 01610-2395, 508-793-3879 (phone), 508-793-3708 (fax), rbaumann@holycross.edu Vicor A. Maheson, Deparmen of Economics, Box 157A, College of he Holy Cross, Worceser, MA 01610-2395, 508-793-2649 (phone), 508-793-3708 (fax), vmaheso@holycross.edu
I. Inroducion Governmens have compeed vigorously o hos mega-evens. Ciies from no fewer han en counries submied applicaions o hos he 2002 Winer Olympics of which four, Sal Lake Ciy, Uah, Unied Saes; Quebec Ciy, Quebec, Canada; Sion, Swizerland; and Osersund, Sweden, were named finaliss. Hallmark evens are hough by civic leaders o bring no only presige o a hos communiy, bu perhaps more imporanly, an economic windfall a promise ha some economiss dispue. This paper has wo purposes. The firs objecive is o assess he economic impac of he 2002 Winer Olympic Games hosed by Sal Lake Ciy, Uah. A second, broader objecive is o deermine if using specific ax daa o assess he economic impac of a large spors even on a relaively smaller economy yields differen resuls han previously derived by economiss who have quesioned he use of public subsidies for mega-evens. Our final objecive is o deermine wheher he 2002 Winer Olympic Games differed across indusries. Since he Olympics brough a record number of ourism o he area, i is expeced ha he hoel and resauran indusries benefied grealy. Bu i is no clear wheher gains in hose indusries came a he expense of losses in ohers. Ex pos analysis ypically uses regression analysis o deermine if a key dependen, economic-performance variable, such as real per capia income or he unemploymen rae, experiences a saisically significan change during he ime he even is held or as a consequence of i. The challenge, of course, is o isolae he effec of he mega-even on he performance variable in he presence of a myriad of oher causal changes. Generally speaking a saisically significan economic impac is more likely o be found he larger is he even relaive o he size of he economy and he narrower he ime frame examined. Quarerly ax daa exiss 3
for Sal Lake Ciy, and given he size of Winer Olympic Games relaive o he Sal Lake Ciy economy, if meaningful economic impac does exis, he 2002 Winer Olympic Games should provide an opporuniy for idenifying i. The paper is organized as follows. This firs secion serves as an inroducion o he subjec. Par wo provides a conex for he research hrough idenifying he ax daa used and profiling he size of he Sal Lake Ciy economy relaive o variables ha describe he scale of he Winer Olympic Games. The hird par of his repor summarizes he resuls of pas analysis on he economic impac of he Winer Olympic Games paricularly he 1994 Games in Lillehammer, Norway, he 1998 Games in Calgary, Canada, and he 2002 Games in Sal Lake Ciy, Uah. The mehodology employed in he repor is discussed in he fourh secion of he paper. The resuls are presened and discussed in secion 5. Conclusions and policy implicaions are discussed in he paper s las secion. II. Profiling he Scale of he 2002 Winer Olympic Games in Sal Lake Ciy, Uah Do he 2002 Winer Olympic Games in Sal Lake Ciy qualify as a mega-even? The number of paricipans, absolue expendiures, and spending per capia would indicae ha he 2002 Games rae hallmark saus. Consider he following daa. The Winer Olympic Games were held in Sal Lake Ciy, Uah from February 8 o February 24. Seveny sporing evens a en venues involving 3,500 ahlees were conesed in 2002, which was more han any previous Winer Games (Unied Saes General Accouning Office, 2001). 1,800 officials from 80 counries paricipaed, and he global elevision audience numbered over 2 billion (Coolaracions.com, 2000). The Games were esimaed o have cos $1.9 billion; he Unied 4
Saes earned 34 medals, and he cos per medal, herefore, equaled $5.59 million (Sappenfield, 2002). The Ciy of Sal Lake has a populaion of 181,743 while he meropolian area has approximaely 1.2 million residens. The Wasach Fron, which includes Ogden and Provo (40 miles norh and souh approximaely, respecively, of he Sal Lake Valley) has a populaion of 1.7 million according o he mos recen populaion daa. The Sae of Uah currenly has a populaion of 2.7 million according o he mos recen saisics (Sal Lake Ciy Demographics, 2008), and presenly he Unied Saes has a populaion of 301 million. Per capia expendiures for he Sal Lake Ciy Games equaled $1,118 per meropolian residen of Sal Lake Ciy and approximaely $6.30 per residen of he Unied Saes using curren populaion daa. By conras, he Beijing Olympic Summer Olympic Games (he mos expensive Olympic Games in hisory) were widely repored o have cos more han $40 billion, or abou $2,300 per each of Beijing s 17.4 million residens, or roughly $30 per person in all of China. The Unied Saes General Accouning Office (GAO) repored ha Alana, Georgia spen $2.4 billion on he 1996 Summer Olympic Games or approximaely $661 per person in meropolian Alana, which had a meropolian populaion of 3.63 million in 1997. Using he curren populaion, he Alana Games cos approximaely $8 per U.S. residen. Referring o daa for he Winer Olympic Games hosed by he U.S., he GAO repored ha he 1980 Winer Olympic Games in Lake Placid cos $363 million or less han $2 per U.S. residen using he 1980 U.S. populaion. These saisics for boh he Summer and Winer Olympic Games indicae ha by any absolue or per capia financial measure, he 2002 Winer Olympic Games in Sal Lake Ciy qualify as a mega-even. Saisics relaing o Olympic evens hosed by he Unied Saes 5
indicae ha alhough Sal Lake Ciy has a large populaion relaive o hos ciies for he Winer Olympic Games, expendiures per capia are high. The financial burden on residens of Sal Lake Ciy and Uah is acually higher han he figures above sugges. The Sal Lake Ciy Organizing Commiee (SLOC), he Sae of Uah, local governmen, and he Federal governmen spen $1.3 billion, $150 million, $75 million, and $342 million, respecively. The SLOC, Sae of Uah, and local governmen financed 82 percen of he coss of he 2002 Games (GAO, 2002). The Unied Saes Governmen, by conras, financed 50 percen of he Lake Placid, New York Winer Olympic Games in 1980. I can be concluded ha he 2002 Games were he larges, mos expensive Winer Olympic Games ever conduced in he Unied Saes, and mos of he financial burden was shouldered by residens of Sal Lake Ciy and Uah. If he Winer Olympic Games can ruly generae a saisically significan posiive impac for he economy of he hos communiy over and above he difficul o quanify inernaional cache he Games impar, he chances of ha i will be idenifiable for he Sal Lake Ciy Games are high. III. The Economic Impac of Pas Winer Olympic Games Those who suppor public financing of mega-spors evens ofen cie Barcelona s experience wih he 1992 Summer Olympic Games as evidence of he abiliy of a hallmark even o simulae a hos ciy s economy. The curren mayor of he Ciy of Barcelona exolled he virues of he Games in a recen Organizaion of Economic Cooperaion and Developmen (OECD) publicaion. Mayor Jordi Hereu observed a a commemoraion he sixeenh anniversary of he 1992 Games: 6
When we look back we can remember ha he Olympic Games gave us an opporuniy o hink big and plan afresh, hey provided he reason o do hings on a large scale. The Games were also a grea rallying iniiaive for he ciy, bringing he people, he business, and oher insiuions and he ciy governmen ogeher in a consensus abou he long erm developmen of he ciy which has lased for 16 years wih grea vialiy. The Games creaed he unsoppable momenum for us (Clark, 2008) Mayor Hereu s observaions sugges ha he wheher he Games serve as a caalys for economic developmen may well res wih heir abiliy o bring diverse segmens of a communiy ogeher o fashion a plan for growh and developmen. No only a blueprin for developmen creaed, bu he creaion of infrasrucure necessary for is execuion idenified and funded. Mayor Hereu noed: Barcelona used he Olympics as he organizing idea for a new kind of sraegic planning, one ha looked deep ino he fuure, and long back a our pas, and enabled us o believe ha we could be a leading ciy once again. The Games also lef a very angible legacy of improved archiecure, infrasrucure, and new developmen poenial, as well many (sic) new ameniies and faciliies which we managed in ways ha enabled ordinary ciizens o enjoy and use fully (Clark, 2008). Do he Winer Olympic Games generae enough exciemen among diverse social groups o allow for he coalescence necessary o creae and execue a plan for growh and developmen similar o ha described by Mayor Hereu? Can he Games absen is role as a social galvanizer and archiec for he revializaion of infrasrucure induce a spike in economic aciviy sufficien o jusify he coss of he even boh shor and long erm? The evidence is mixed. Olympic Sadium in Monreal, Canada, sie for he opening ceremonies and ahleics (rack and field evens) for he 1976 Summer Olympic Games, was jus paid off his pas year. Tha serves as a sober reminder ha he poenial exiss for creaing a legacy of deb as well as he poenial for 7
economic advancemen from hosing he Games. The abiliy of he Winer Games o simulae economic developmen has similar mixed resuls. Turin has gambled ha he $3.4 billion spen on hosing he 2006 Winer Olympics will replicae on a smaller scale he Barcelona experience. Too lile ime has passed o deermine if he Torino Games have simulaed he Turin economy enough o jusify he coss (Wilkinson, 2006). The experience wih regard o he 1994 Winer Olympic Games in Lillehammer does no suppor he idea ha he Winer Games have he capabiliy of ransforming hos communiies. Olav R. Spilling of he Easern Norway Research Insiue in Lillehammer concluded: For some ime he economic impacs caused by he Olympics were very significan, and major pars of he regional indusries have been affeced in one way or anoher. However, he Olympics have mosly caused an indusrial inermezzo. Wih he excepion of significan growh in he ourism indusry, he long-erm economic benefis fro he region have urned ou o be fairly modes and ou of proporion o he huge coss of hosing he Games (Spilling, 1996). Jon Teigland also provided a sober appraisal of he Winer Olympic Games o serve as a caalys for economic developmen. Teigland observed: Afer hosing he 1994 Winer Olympics, he Norwegian naional and local auhoriies expeced a big boom in ourism; he acual effecs have been less han, and differen from, he predicions, and 40% of he full-service hoels in Lillehammer have gone bankrup (Teigland, 1999). Does he experience of Sal Lake Ciy resemble Barcelona more han Lillehammer and Monreal? The mehodology employed o ascerain he economic impac of he 2002 Winer Olympic Games on he Sal Lake Ciy economy is discussed in he nex secion of he paper. 8
IV. Mehodology and Model Economiss who sudy he impac of mega-evens on local economies are quick o poin ou ha ex ane economic impac sudies end o suffer from several imporan heoreical deficiencies ha place he accuracy of such esimaes in doub. For example, he organizers of he 1996 Summer Games esimaed ha he even would generae 77,000 jobs for he ciy of Alana. Baade and Maheson s (2002) ex pos analysis of he even, however, found ha employmen in he region had increased by as few as 3,467 jobs wih even heir mos opimisic esimaes idenifying employmen growh only around half ha which was prediced. Oher sudies of inernaional mega-evens such as he World Cup (Baade and Maheson, 2004; Hagn and Maennig 2007a; 2007b) and Summer Olympics (Jasmand and Maennig, 2007) similarly find lile or no impac on real economic variables from hosing hese evens. A leas wo reasons appear o explain much of he divergence beween he boosers preliminary esimaes of he economic benefis of hese evens and he economic gains ha are acually realized. The subsiuion effec occurs when local residens aler heir consumpion paerns in he presence of a mega-even, and he crowding ou effec occurs when boh local residens and regular visiors are displaced by spors fans aending he even. Alhough an affair such as he Winer Olympics may generae a grea deal of economic aciviy, if a similar level of economic aciviy is deerred by he Games, he economy as a whole may no benefi from he even. Any gains in one par of he economy, such as he hospialiy secor, may simply come a he expense of oher businesses. The subsiuion and crowding ou effecs have been clearly idenified and isolaed a 9
leas wice previously in he spors economics lieraure. Baumann, Maheson, and Muroi (2008) examine fligh arrival daa in Japan and presen evidence ha he Honolulu marahon, which aracs ens of housands of runners from Japan, reduces he number of American ouriss o he Islands during he race weekend. More direcly relaed o he opic a hand, Leeds (2007) finds ha axable sales in Colorado ski resor communiies grew during he monhs in which heir nex door neighbors in Uah were hosing he 2002 Winer Olympics. Leeds aribues his rise o he displacemen of ouriss from resors in he Sal Lake Ciy region. This paper direcly examines axable sales in Uah for evidence of displacemen effecs. Unlike Leeds (2007), which examined he reshuffling of economic aciviy beween regions as a resul of he Games, his paper analyzes he reapporionmen of economic aciviy beween differen indusries wihin he sae of Uah as a resul of he 2002 Winer Olympics. In order o idenify shifs in spending paerns quarerly axable sales from 1982 and 2006 for Sal Lake, Davis, Morgan, Summi, Uah, Wasach, and Weber counies are examined. Even hough he 2002 Olympics were hosed by Sal Lake Ciy, we included he surrounding counies for wo reasons. Firs, he Olympic evens were spread ou hroughou norhern Uah. Second and more imporanly, including he surrounding counies allows us o disinguish beween he gross and ne effecs of he 2002 Winer Olympics. For example, he Olympics probably araced visiors from nearby areas o Sal Lake Ciy. Bu his likely decreased spending in hose areas, which is an example of he subsiuion effec. Our geographic range accouns for money ha is redireced o Sal Lake Ciy from adjacen counies. We use he wesern U.S. consumer price index o conver axable sales daa o 2006 dollars. Table 1 presens summary saisics for six axable sales caegories. The mean of oal 10
real axable sales per quarer in he region examined is abou $3.365 billion, so i is possible ha he effecs of a large even like he Olympics may no be observable. In addiion, as noed previously, hosing he Olympics is no likely o benefi all indusries equally. For hese reasons, examine overall real axable sales as well as five subses of oal real axable sales: eaing and drinking esablishmens, hoels, amusemen firms (such as movie heaers, bowling alleys, and arcades), and general merchandise sores which primarily includes deparmen sores. We also use quarerly axable sales for he skiing indusry, bu hese are only available for he enire sae and he sample frame is smaller: 1995 o 2006. All subses of oal axable sales have significanly smaller means, and heir inclusion allows us o es wheher he benefi of hosing he 2002 Winer Olympics differs across indusries. All models use an ARMA(P,Q) model * P Q * 0 + Φ p y p + Θq ε q p=1 q= 0 y = β + λyear + μquarer + γgdp + αoly + ε where y * is axable sales in ime period, P is he number of lagged values of y * in he model known as he auoregressive (AR) dimension of he model, ε is an error erm, and Q is he number of lagged values of he error erm represening he moving average (MA) dimension of he model. gdp is a he naionwide real gross domesic produc, which accouns for naional economic rends ha impac norhern Uah. I is paricularly imporan o accoun for he general business cycle as he 2002 Games occurred shorly afer he end of he 2001 recession, and axable sales in he sae are likely o be affeced by he negaive economic climae. oly is a dummy variable ha equals one for he quarer of he Sal Lake Ciy Olympics, firs quarer 2002. We also include a vecor of dummy variables for each year ( year ) and quarer ( quarer ). 11
The yearly dummy variables accoun for year-specific effecs and he quarerly dummy variables correc for seasonaliy. Maximum likelihood esimaes β, Φ p, Θq, γ, β, 0 and σ, which is he sandard deviaion of he whie noise errorε for each caegory of axable sales. Finally, we esimae he model for each ype of axable sales. Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron ess do no rejec he exisence of a uni roo for all six caegories of axable sales in levels, bu rejec he uni roo using he firs difference in each case. For his reason each dependen variable, gdp, and oly are firs-differenced o produce he correc marginal effecs. The opimal auoregressive and moving average dimensions of each model are deermined he Akaike Informaion Crierion. Table 2 presens he resuls from all six dependen variables. The 2002 Winer Olympics reduced overall axable sales by $130.9 million alhough his coefficien is no saisically significan. This suggess ha, despie record levels of ourism, a bes here was no a saisical ne increase in oal axable sales during he quarer of he 2002 Winer Olympics and a worse axable sales may have fallen. However, he Olympics had a posiive and saisically significan ne effec on some indusries in norhern Uah. Hoels enjoyed an esimaed $51.9 million ne increase in axable sales, while ne axable sales for eaing and drinking esablishmens increased by an esimaed $18.7 million. Boh of hese esimaes are saisically significan a any reasonable significance level. The ne effec on he hoel indusry is paricularly noable since he esimae ($51.9 million) is nearly as large as he sample mean ($59.2 million). These gains in hoels and eaing and drinking esablishmens, however, are offse by losses in oher indusries. Sales ax collecions a general merchandise sores have an esimaed ne loss of $167.4 million during he quarer of he 2002 Winer Olympics, which is saisically 12
significan. Ski resors and oher amusemen firms also had esimaed ne losses, hough hey are no saisically significan. While i is no possible wih his daa o conclude wih cerainy ha he drop in sales a deparmen sores is a direc consequence of he Olympics (or, for ha maer, o conclude ha he increases in he hospialiy secor are direc resuls, eiher), he fac remains ha ouside of hoels and resaurans, he economy of Uah does no seem o have prospered as a resul of he Games. The subsiuion and crowding ou effecs can explain hese oherwise counerinuiive resuls, which come as no surprise o hose who have examined he economic impac of megaevens in he pas. V. Conclusions Hosing a mega-even is a cosly bu poenially rewarding affair. Ciies aggressively compee wih rivals for he righ o hos evens such as he quadrennial Winer Olympics. Our examinaion of he 2002 Sal Lake Ciy Games shows ha he Olympics produced some clear winners in he hospialiy indusry. The daa also show, however, ha no all secors of he economy benefied equally from he Games. Indeed, general merchandise sores, a secor accouning for roughly one-fifh of all axable sales in he sae exhibied saisically significan drops in heir receips. I should be noed, furhermore, ha he saisically significan gains in he hoel and resauran indusry, a combined $70.6 million, are less han half he dollar level of he repored losses in he general merchandise indusry of $167.4 million. A poin esimae for he overall figures suggess a fall in axable sales of $130.9 million alhough care mus be ake in aribuing meaning o coefficiens ha are no saisically significan. Given he experience of 13
Uah, poenial Olympic hoss should exercise cauion before proceeding down he slippery slope of bidding for his even. 14
REFERENCES. Baade, Rober A. and Vicor A. Maheson. 2002. Bidding for he Olympics: Fool s Gold?. In Transalanic Spor: The Comparaive Economics of Norh American and European Spors, edied by Carlos Pesana Barros, Muradali Ibrahimo, and Sefan Szymanski. London: Edward Elgar Publishing, 127-151. Baade, Rober A. and Vicor A. Maheson. 2004. The Ques for he Cup: Assessing he Economic Impac of he World Cup. Regional Sudies, 38(4): 343-354. Baumann, Rober, Vicor A. Maheson, and Chihiro Muroi. 2008. Bowling in Hawaii: Examining he Effeciveness of Spors-Based Tourism Sraegies. Journal of Spors Economics, forhcoming. Clark, Greg 2008, Local Developmen Benefis from Saging Major Evens, OECD. CoolAracions.com 2000, In 2002 Sal Lake Ciy, USA Will Hos he Winer Olympic Games, hp://www.sallakeciy.coolaracions.com, Accessed on Sepember 30, 2008. Hagn, Florian and Wolfgang Maennig. 2007a. Labour Marke Effecs of he 2006 Soccer World Cup in Germany. Inernaional Associaion of Spors Economiss Working Paper Series, No. 07-16. Hagn, Florian and Wolfgang Maennig. 2007b. Shor-erm o long-erm employmen effecs of he Fooball World Cup 1974 in Germany. Inernaional Associaion of Spors Economiss Working Paper Series, No. 07-21. Jasmand, Sephanie and Wolfgang Maennig. 2007. Regional Income and Employmen Effecs of he 1972 Munich Olympic Summer Games. Inernaional Associaion of Spors Economiss Working Paper Series, No. 07-12. 15
Leeds, Michael. 2007. Do Good Olympics Make Good Neighbors? Conemporary Economic Policy, 26:3, 460-467. Sal Lake Ciy Demographics. 2007. hp://www.sallakeciyuah.org/sal_lake_demographics.hm, Accessed on Sepember 30, 2008. Sappenfield, Mark, The Games Were Grea. Now abou ha $1.9 Billion, Chrisian Science Monior, hp://www.csmonior.com/2002/0226/p03s01-ussc.hml, Accessed On Sepember 30, 2008. Spilling, Olav R. 1996, Mega even as sraegy for regional developmen: The case of he 1994 Lillehammer Winer Olympics, Enrepreneurship & Regional Developmen, Volume 8, Issue 4, Ocober, 321-344. Teigland, Jon 1999, Mega-evens and impacs on ourism; he predicions and realiies of he Lillehammer Olympics, Impac Assessmen and Projec Appraisal, Volume 17, Number 4, 1 December, 305-317. Unied Saes General Accouning Office 2001, Olympic Games: Coss o Plan and Sage he Games in he Unied Saes, November. Wilkinson, Tracy 2006, Turin Hopes Is Pricey Olympic Makeover Lass, Los Angeles Times, February 5. hp://aricles.laimes.com/2006/feb/05/world/fg-urin5, Accessed on Ocober 1, 2006. 16
Table 1: Summary Saisics (sandard deviaions in parenhesis) Sample Mean Toal Taxable Sales $3,365,102,848 ($2,185,387,264) Ea/Drink Taxable $219,415,024 Sales ($141,062,608) Hoel Taxable Sales $59,234,912 ($37,491,812) Amusemen Taxable $71,802,336 Sales ($57,320,616) Merchandise Taxable $558,294,024 Sales ($442,058,592) Ski Taxable Sales $35,832,424 ($32,834,512) Noe: All values are in 2006 dollars using he wesern U.S. consumer price index.. 17
Olympics real GDP quarer 2 quarer 3 quarer 4 consan AR(1) AR(2) -130,937,266 (99,253,512) Table 2: ARMA Resuls (sandard errors in parenheses) Toal Ea/Drink Hoel Amusemen Merchandise Ski 18,707,276 ** 51,937,932 ** -2,411,612-167,352,135 ** (2,428,307) (5,202,097) (2,236,289) (55,488,008) 434,918 (352,728) 273,115,879 ** (51,636,108) 233,074,235 ** (46,111,548) 233,376,365 ** (37,773,904) -167,327,060 ** (39,348,892) -0.463 * (0.122) -0.549 * (0.134) 19,568 (14,898) -14,648,898 * (7,690,765) -3,645,899 (2,844,881) -18,539,160 * (6,923,299) 10,267,875 * (5,896,680) 24,010 (19,761) -52,615,660 ** (5,611,243) -20,434,086 ** (4,395,502) -33,040,962 ** (4,607,811) 27,665,668 ** (6,911,542) - - 0.222 ** (0.111) AR(3) - - - AR(4) 0.211 (0.129) 0.641 * (0.132) MA(4) - - - - 0.778 ** (0.044) 7,858 (10,604) -68,028,918 (40,940,936) 24,138,495 (27,663,622) 84,250 (39,516,800) -12,357,163 (21,464,978) -0.323 * (0.174) -0.294 * (0.170) -0.249 (0.162) 0.709 ** (0.164) - -245,212 (125,852) 90,474,326 ** (31,381,394) 74,418,575 * (32,302,358) 119,970,810 ** (34,051,444) -90,318,863 ** (31,434,942) - - -3,443,486 (5,659,698) 12,492 (23,084) -124,112,576 ** (11,569,930) -48,160,142 ** (5,821,742) -38,520,493 ** (6,756,262) 52,938,068 ** (5,364,688) -0.775 ** (0.217) -0.378 * (0.193) - - - - 0.735 ** (0.176) Noe: (1) Year dummies are included in each model bu omied from Table 2 for breviy. Full resuls are available upon reques. (2) ** and * represen saisical significance a he one percen and en percen levels, respecively. - 18