Divided America: Politics and Polarization
Where the Republican Race Stands 1,547 Delegates Allocated to Date Kasich: 144 (9%) Others: 15 (1%) Rubio: 173 (11%) Cruz: 463 (30%) Trump: 752 (49%) Needed to win: 1,237
Where the Race Stands 2,304 (Pledged) Delegates Allocated to Date Sanders: 1,038 (45%) Clinton: 1,266 (55%) Needed to win: 2,383
The Trump Coalition 80 70 75 60 50 40 48 45 30 38 20 10 0 Total vote Early deciders Non-college Tells it like it is
The Cruz Coalition 40 35 30 38 25 20 25 28 15 10 5 0 Total vote Shares my values Conservatives
When Did You Choose Your Candidate? 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Iowa S.Carolina Tennessee Michigan Trump Early Cruz Early Trump Late Cruz Late
Most Important Candidate Quality 80 70 60 75 50 40 30 20 10 10 12 38 0 Tells it like it is Trump Shares my values Cruz
Most Important Candidate Quality 90 80 73 78 81 70 60 56 50 40 30 20 27 40 20 18 10 0 Electability Cares Honest/trust Experienced Clinton Sanders
Direction of Country 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Right Direction Wrong Track Washington Post/ABC News polls, 2004-2015
Trust in Our Institutions GREAT DEAL/QUITE A LOT 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 72 67 52 42 37 33 32 31 28 24 21 20 10 8 0 Gallup, June 2-7, 2015
Most Honest, Ethical Professions VERY HIGH/HIGH ETHICS 100 90 85 80 70 60 50 67 60 56 45 40 30 20 10 27 25 21 8 8 7 0 Gallup, December 2-6, 2015
1-Jan 1-Aug 1-Mar 1-Oct 1-May 1-Dec 1-Jul 1-Feb 1-Sep 1-Apr 1-Nov 1-Jun 1-Jan 1-Aug 1-Mar 1-Oct 1-May 1-Dec 1-Jul 1-Feb 1-Sep 1-Apr 1-Nov 1-Jun 1-Jan Congress s Job Approval Approve 60 54 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 42 46 41 20 23 13 31 17 22 13 12 12 13 19 13 11 Approve Gallup polls, 2002-2016
President Obama s Job Approval Jan. 2013: 53% - 42% Today: 48% - 47%
A Television Event for Red America Deeper red indicates higher viewership. Deeper blue indicates lower viewership.
Duck Dynasty Season 4 Premier
Total: 242 electoral votes The Blue Wall
Total: 180 electoral votes The Red Wall
The Purple States 2012: 61 Dem EVs 55 GOP EVs Dems Need: Blue Wall + 28 EVs GOP Needs: Red Wall + 90 EVs
Demographics 100 93 Obama Romney 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 39 59 71 27 55 44 60 37 20 10 7 0 Whites (72%) African Americans (13%) Latino (10%) Women (53%) 18-29 (19%)
Are Destiny 100 90 80 70 86 85 87 83 81 77 74 72 60 50 40 30 20 14 15 13 17 19 23 26 28 10 0 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 White Non-White
President Obama s Job Approval Jan. 2013: 53% - 42% Today: 48% - 47%
Drinks and Politics More likely to vote 140 130 120 Sauvignon Blanc Brut Gin Red Zinfandel Shiraz/Syrah Pinot Grigio Guinness Chardonnay Scotch Labatt Cabernet Sauvignon Merlot Samuel Adams Bourbon whiskey Canadian whiskey Less likely to vote 110 100 90 80 70 Cognac Brandy Milwaukee's Best Tecate Stella Artois Dos Equis Heineken Tequila Corona Any malt liquor Busch Budweiser Vodka Miller High Life Natural Light Rum Amstel Light Miller Lite Coors Light Coors Original Corona Light Bud Light Blue Moon Busch Light SOURCE: NMRPP analysis of Scarborough Research data USA+ 2012 Release 2; Aug 11-Sept 12; N=206,895 U.S. adults 18+. 60-80 -70-60 -50-40 -30-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Democratic Republican
Cars and Politics 140 Any Hybrid vehicle Porsche Volvo Jaguar 130 Subaru Saab 120 110 100 90 Mini Suzuki Toyota Audi Volkswagen Hyundai Nissan Buick Cadillac Mercedes Acura Honda Kia Pontiac Geo BMW Dodge Lexus Chrysler Mazda GMC Ford Jeep Chevrolet Lincoln 80 Plymouth Mitsubishi Automobile Ownership SOURCE: NMRPP analysis of Scarborough Research data USA+ 2012 Release 2; Aug 11-Sept 12; 70 N=206,895 U.S. adults 18+. -50-40 -30-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Democratic Republican
Sports and Politics 140 130 120 110 100 Sports Audiences SOURCE: NMRPP analysis of Scarborough Research data USA+ 2012 Release 2; Aug 11-Sept 12; N=206,895 U.S. adults 18+. Women's tennis (WTA) WNBA LPGA Tour PGA Tour College basketball College baseball High school sports Horse racing College football Figure skating Olympics IndyCar Series MLB Men's tennis (ATP) NHL NFL NASCAR Gymnastics F1 Racing Pro rodeo NBA NHRA Drag Racing 90 80 70 Pro boxing European soccer WWE (pro wrestling) Major League Soccer (MLS) MotoGP (Grand Prix motorcycle) UFC (Ultimate Fighting) Monster Trucks AMA Pro Racing (motorcycle/atv) Supercross/Motocro ss 60-100 -80-60 -40-20 0 20 40 60
Battle for the Senate 54 Republicans, 44 Democrats, 2 independents
Battle for the Senate
Battle for the Senate The Vulnerable Republicans
Battle for the Senate The Vulnerable Democrats
Battle for the House 246 Republicans, 188 Democrats, 1 vacancy
Gerrymandering
North Carolina s 12 th District
Illinois 17 th District
Arizona s (Old) 2 nd District
Arizona s New Districts
Battle for the House
Direction of Country 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Right Direction Wrong Track Washington Post/ABC News polls, 2004-2015
State of the States 24 under total Republican control 7 under total Democratic control 19 under divided control