REPORT 2018/19 BEST BETS GUIDE - MATCHDAYPROFITS.COM Paul Ruffy 2018 Cautionary Note/Disclaimer: You are solely responsible for any money that you bet, win or lose. No reproduction or distribution of this report is permitted without the prior consent of the author
Contents Contents 2 Welcome 3 Premier League 5 Championship 10 FA Cup 13 League Cup 17 Champions League (plus a Europa League bet) 20 European Bankers 24 Bonus! Season Acca! 26 More to come 28 2
Welcome Dear Reader, My name is Paul Ruffy and I d like to welcome you to my Best Bets guide for the 2018/19 football season. Before we begin - a little transparency, I ve employed a little help with my Ante-post bets again this year (as in 16/17), so this guide guide is co-written by myself and the rather excellent Josh Allen, whose opinion I value and respect. In this guide we ve taken a look at the most hotly contested competitions of the new season (plus the League Cup!) and picked out the very best value ante-post plays based on summer signings, key statistics and, of course, good old-fashioned form study. Time and time again ante-post betting throws up excellent value propositions, particularly in the world of football where the bookmakers have a pretty tight grip on the day to day win markets but tend to make more ricks when it comes to long term investments. In this guide we ve highlighted some of those ricks for you to exploit in addition to some more general snippets of useful information such as our European Bankers page which takes a look at those bets that come in time and time again perfect weekend accumulator material if you ask us! 3
Plus, we even have a bonus section which bids to follow up on a cracking 20/1 winning five-fold that I sent out to members last season. We hope you enjoy this guide and if you have any questions about the contents do feel free to drop us an email at admin@matchdayprofits.com. Otherwise sit back, relax and prepare to profit. Best Wishes, 4
Premier League A season which started out with huge promise Guardiola vs. Klopp vs. Mourinho vs. Pochettino vs. Conte vs. Wenger very quickly turned into a procession as Guardiola and Manchester City swept aside all before them. City fans won t care of course and nor should they, with their title win one of the most impressive in recent memory. With Wenger s spell at Arsenal stuttering to a halt, the rest of the top four quickly became a three from four scenario and it was Chelsea who missed out, continuing their run of great year followed by awful year. The rest of the league was, well, a bit of a mess to be honest. Burnley ended as the best of the rest despite barely winning a game in the second half of the season. Everton and Leicester were comfortable-ish after dodgy starts and the remainder (10 th place Newcastle to 20 th place West Brom) could easily have finished in the reverse order and nobody would have batted an eye-lid. 5
What does that tell us? I think 1) the big six is not going to be breached this season and 2) the rest of the division is much of a muchness, so don t be afraid of backing a big price to finish in the top 10 or to get relegated. Three To Follow Liverpool: Let s do a quick rundown of that big six Manchester City are extremely hard to oppose in any of the markets domestically or otherwise BUT they are priced accordingly. I think the best place to follow them this season, in terms of betting value at least, may be in the Champions League as it would only be natural for them to take their foot off the gas domestically in search of prizes not yet already won. I d certainly be very surprised if they were to match or better last season s points tally. Manchester United look to be on the brink of meltdown. Mourinho s best season has always been his second and his second at United was distinctly underwhelming, with the Portugeezer spending most of his time falling out with players and blaming everyone but himself for his side s poor performances. With minimal transfer activity so far this summer and the existing players getting increasingly sick of their boss, this could be a season of calamity at Old Trafford. Chelsea could be a wildcard with yet another new manager but you have to worry about their attack with Morata and Giroud distinctly average and Eden Hazard possibly with an eye on the exit. 6
Arsenal are clearly in transition and their best chance of achieving Champions League football may be by winning the Europa League. Tottenham have almost an entire team returning home late from the World Cup which will likely result in a slow start to the season. Their strength in depth issues haven t been addressed and a new stadium may also cause some early season problems. That all leaves Liverpool who look to have done some fantastic business in keeping their best players and improving their weakest positions and who also have the benefit of a near full pre-season for star names like Mane and Salah. It ll be a tough ask for anybody to finish ahead of City but the Reds look to be in comfortably the best position to mount a credible challenge. Wolves and Fulham: Given the dross in the bottom half of the Premier League last season it was no major surprise to see newly promoted Newcastle finishing in the top 10 and newly promoted Huddersfield and Brighton staying up. That should give great hope to Wolves, Fulham and, to a lesser extent, Cardiff. Wolves are clearly a bit of an open secret given their newfound influence in the transfer market but there could still be a bit of bite in Fulham prices both long-term and on a match by match basis. 7
Sadio Mane: The great thing about Liverpool s strike-force is that if one of them doesn t get you, one of the other two probably will. That was neatly demonstrated in the Champions League last season when Salah, Mane and Firmino ended the campaign tied on 10 goals apiece. Mo Salah bets will no doubt be all the rage this season and with good reason but, given opposition defences will likely start doubling up on him, Mane could be left in acres of space to do some serious damage down the opposite flank and at much better odds too. Three To Avoid Jose Mourinho : This is the third time Mourinho has made it to the third season in charge of a Premier League club. On the two previous occasions he came into that season as a champion but ended up out of a job by Christmas. This time he comes into the season with no current medals and very little remaining goodwill. Watford and Javi Gracia: Javi Gracia was brought in midway through last season to steady the ship after Marco Silva s dismissal and he did an okay job but nothing more than that Watford were 10 th when Silva was sacked, five points above the drop zone and ended the season 14 th, eight points above the drop zone. With the honeymoon period now over and the Watford owners penchant for shiny new managers it s a surprise Gracia isn t a shorter price in the Next Manager to Leave market. If it is the intention to give him a fair crack of the whip then a Watford relegation would also look a decent price. 8
Newcastle, Huddersfield and Burnley (if) : These three teams should not have finished 7 th, 10 th and 16 th last season given their resources and the fact that they did says a hell of a lot about their respective managers. If any of them leave early on in the season their team will be a massive bet for the drop. 9
Championship The competitiveness of the Championship has almost become a bit of a cliché but that s not to say there isn t any truth in it quite the opposite in fact. While it s true that Wolves were fairly easy to spot last season (and Newcastle the season before), in Cardiff there was yet another promoted team who appeared more likely to be going down than up at the start of the campaign. The relegation battle was also as entertaining as ever and Sunderland s double drop will provide a stark warning to Stoke, West Brom and Swansea, not that they should need it. 10
Two To Follow Middlesbrough : Fair play to Tony Pulis who could no doubt have picked up another lower half Premier League job but instead decided to try and take Boro back to the promised land. It s probably not a bad shout either as he s taken on a squad which looked remarkably similar to his Stoke City side (minus the success) during their most recent stay in the top flight. I really am struggling to see them out of the top six which makes the fact they re almost the same odds as the nutjobs at Leeds United pretty remarkable. Ipswich: Ipswich probably owe a fair bit to Mick McCarthy with the gruff Yorkshireman keeping them in the division year after year despite spending barely a pittance. Having said that, the fans clearly fell out of love with Mick and so pretty much any change would have done them good but they appear to have landed a real good un in appointing Paul Hurst as manager. Hurst worked wonders at Shrewsbury on a tight budget and as pre-season third favourites for relegation, I think the Tractor Boys could easily be the surprise package of the season. One To Avoid Derby County: In the storm of Championship unpredictability Derby County provide a sea of tranquillity. Yes, they will start the season strongly, yes they will be challenging for automatic promotion around Christmas time, yes they will fall 11
away in the second half of the season, sack their manager prepare to do it all over again. While all around them yoyo between triumph and disaster, Derby have spent the last six seasons finishing 10 th, 3 rd, 8 th, 5 th, 9 th and 6 th. Frank Lampard is the next man to try and lift them out of their slump. There are easier first jobs in football management. One To Enjoy Marcelo Bielsa and Leeds United : The best coach in the world according to Pep Guardiola (and plenty of others) is now the manager of Leeds United. Leeds United who have had 13 managers since 2012. This ll be fun. 12
FA Cup The greatest cup competition in the world or a depressing indictment of the way football is headed in the age of the 200milllion player? Regardless of exactly what you think of the FA Cup, there s no doubt that it remains an entertaining competition and a pretty difficult one to attack from a betting perspective (in the early rounds anyway). Still, that doesn t mean there s no potential angle of attack for us and I ve detailed some possible routes to profit on this very page. 13
Two To Follow The big boys: As I ve already mentioned, the FA Cup is generally won by one of the big guns, despite there being a few shocks and heart-warming tales along the way, and once again I can t see that changing this year. I say once again, because you may recognise this segment from previous Best Bets guide and I make no apology for that. Madness is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome, so why on earth would I stop focusing on the big boys now when nothing is changing in the wider world of football?! Lower league teams with momentum: When shocks do occur they tend to be less surprising than you may think. Sure, a League One team beating a Premier League team sounds mad but often the League One side is flying high and the Premier League team is struggling, so it could almost be seen as a Championship match up. The Cup is full of examples of shocks by teams who are having an excellent season in the league or in other cup competitions. When non-league Lincoln made the quarters a couple of years ago, they were in the process of getting promoted and that s just one of many examples. It s rare that a team near the foot of their own division pulls off an upset, so rather than focus on the division a team is in, instead look for sides in-form playing sides out of form it s as simple as that! 14
Two To Avoid Tottenham: The notable exception from the list of big boy winners is Tottenham Hotspur and it s now a whopping 27 years since they won the Cup. While they ve been performing reasonably in the competition in the last few years, they ve never really looked like winning it. It clearly isn t a priority for manager Pochettino and even if it became one, they do tend to choke when they get close to the finishing line. At similar odds to the rest of the Big Six I d side with proven pedigree all day long. QPR: This is another one I ve mentioned in previous guides but it s one of my favourite stats in football so screw it! At the other end of the spectrum to the big boys are QPR. Poor, broken QPR. Since 2001 the R s have won two FA Cup games. Yes, you read that right two. Whoever they get in the third round, oppose them! 15
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League Cup The domestic competition everybody loves to hate is actually one of my favourites with all too predictable upsets (see below) and fantastically entertaining matches as teams cut loose and throw caution to the wind what s not to like?! One To Follow Midranking Premier League clubs : While the FA Cup has proved almost as hard to win in the Premier League era as the Premier League itself, the League Cup provides a realistic shot at glory for those top-flight sides who potter along year in year out, seemingly content with a 10 th place finish. Here is a list of some of the finalists since 2000: Leicester (winners), Tranmere, Birmingham City (twice, winners once), Blackburn Rovers (winners), Tottenham (when they were 17
rubbish), Middlesbrough (winners), Bolton, Wigan, Aston Villa, Cardiff, Swansea (winners), Bradford, Sunderland, Southampton. One To Avoid Big wins for the big boys : I ve already mentioned the large number of surprise finalists and Arsenal s dismal record but it s also worth pointing out that even in a year when three of the four semi-finalists were Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City, the big boys far from had it their own way. Here s a list of 90 minute results when Big Six teams took on the rest in 2017/18: Leicester 2 Liverpool 0 Tottenham 1 Barnsley 0 Arsenal 1 Doncaster 0 Chelsea 5 Nottingham Forest 1 Man United 4 Burton 1 West Brom 1 Man City 2 Arsenal 1 Norwich 1 Man City 0 Wolves 0 Swansea 0 Man United 2 Chelsea 2 Everton 1 Tottenham 2 West Ham 3 Arsenal 1 West Ham 0 Leicester 1 Man City 1 18
Bristol City 2 Man United 1 Chelsea 2 Bournemouth 1 Man City 2 Bristol City 1 Bristol City 2 Man City 3 That s just three wins by more than one goal from 17 matches, including nine matches against lower league opposition. The makings of a handicap strategy against the big sides perhaps? 19
Champions League (plus a Europa League bet) The crème de la crème of European football will once again do battle in UEFA s premier club competition/cash cow and the great thing about this tournament from our point of view is that it s oh so reliable. The whole event is designed to aid the big guns and shock results really are few and far between. If you re the type that likes an accumulator then backing favourites in the group stages is a pretty decent way to go. Sure, short odds and value may seem like unusual bedfellows but it all depends on the contest if this year s Derby winner was up against a seaside donkey then odds of 2/9 would be super value, so why turn your nose up at a similar price when Barcelona welcome the champions of Bulgaria to the Nou Camp. Now granted, last year saw a shock finalist (Liverpool) and a shock semi-finalist (Roma, although they needed a second leg miracle against Barcelona to get there) but Real Madrid still won the thing. 20
Three To Follow Manchester City : Odds of 6/1 are a little skinny for my liking but Manchester City will be desperate to go far in the Champions League this season and may well choose to focus on that rather than domestic matters. Pep ll just be hoping they don t get Liverpool again! Liverpool: Will lightning strike twice for the Reds? Personally, I don t see any reason why not. Liverpool s front three (who all finished as joint second top scorers last season) are all still in place and the goalkeeper and central midfield areas have received significant upgrades. 21
While Klopp may do the opposite of Guardiola and focus primarily on the league, nobody will want to draw his Liverpool side, especially if/when they make it out of the group stage, and a price of 14/1 looks very fair. I m of the opinion that English sides may start to dominate Europe in the next few years, as they did in the late 2000 s, and with Real Madrid in transition, Barca unconvincing last season, PSG bottle jobs and Bayern not the force of a few years ago, this season could be the start of that dominance. Arsenal (Europa League) : With so many imponderables including weakened teams, trips to the arse end of nowhere and Champions League teams entering the competition after the group stage, there s little point in dedicating a whole section to the Europa League, but I do want to back Arsenal. As I ve already mentioned, I expect the Gunners to have a cup season with the top four likely to be beyond a completely rejigged football club. Should that be the case the Europa League would be the obvious target given that the winners now qualify for the Champions League. Furthermore, they have a Europa League master in charge new boss Unai Emery won the competition three years in a row with Sevilla between 2013 and 2016. Odds of 9/1 look perfectly reasonable and I m sure they will be shorter once the group stage is over. Two To Avoid Paris Saint-Germain: Without going all French surrender on you, PSG are bottlers. This is the competition they want to win and with all the money in the world, it s the competition they should be winning and yet since that influx of 22
cash they ve not made so much as a semi-final. Perhaps it s down to the lack of quality opposition in the French league, perhaps it s down to fielding a bunch of mercenaries who are only in it for the cash. Whatever the reason, just don t back them! Manchester United : Getting knocked out in the last 16 to Sevilla was nothing new for United according to their own manager, Jose Mourinho, and I m not going to disagree. Their record over the last few years has been as follows: last 16 (Sevilla), didn t qualify, group stage (PSV/Wolfsburg/CSKA), didn t qualify, quarters (Bayern Munich), last 16 (Real Madrid, group stage (Benfica/Basel/Cluj). They re the same price to win it this year as Europa League holders and two time recent finalists Atletico Madrid. Get in the bin. 23
European Bankers In this final section of our Best Bets guide we ve compiled some of the most potent banker stats from last season. While past performance is obviously no guarantee of future success, the same things do tend to happen time and time again and so if you are one to indulge in accumulators or even just lumpy bets at short prices (these CAN sometimes offer value remember) then you could do much worse than make a note of these 7 European Bankers. 1) Last season Juventus won the Italian league again despite Napoli racking up 91 points. That s now seven straight titles for the Old Lady and with Napoli under new management and Roma again losing their best player things are unlikely to change this season. Granted, that isn t a stat as such but you should again expect them to win the vast majority of their matches, especially with Ronaldo cleaning up against the lesser lights. 2) It ll come as no surprise to you that PSG are dominant in France but the split between their home and away games is interesting. At home last season they scored an incredible 70 goals in 19 games that s an average of nearly four goals scored per match, so they re well worth backing on the handicap. 24
3) Speaking of a strong home record, PSV won all bar two of their home matches in the Dutch league last season and the two they didn t win were both draws. Ajax are still the most famous Dutch club by a distance but with PSV dominating last season and Feyenoord the season before, it pays to look outside Amsterdam for your Netherlands based bankers. 4) Manchester City had an identical record away from home to at home last season - 16 wins, two draws and one defeat. Given you ll get much better odds backing them in away matches, that might be the value call when considering them for an acca. Pep is not a man who changes his approach when travelling. 5) Liverpool meanwhile were unbeaten at home last season in both the Premier League and Champions League. Get on those draw no bets. 6) The Portuguese league has established itself as perfect banker material in recent years and last season neither Porto or Sporting Lisbon lost a home match. That was far from a rare occurrence, so while odds in Portugal may be skinny, the results are certainly reliable. 7) Finally to Spain where there couldn t be more of a contrast between Atletico Madrid and the other two dominant clubs of recent years, Real Madrid and Barcelona. Last season Real scored 36 more goals than Atleti yet finished three points behind them. Barca and Real on the handicap and Atleti to win to nil has got to be the call here. 25
Bonus! Season Acca! If you don t want to risk a lot of funds tied up in ante-post bets but want one bet to give you a run for your money all season then this is for you. I ve put this one together to win and I m hopeful that it will deliver at a decent price. Obviously keep stakes well within what you comfortable with if your betting. Manchester City/Liverpool Dual Forecast (Premier League) @ 2/1 This bet requires the two named teams to finish 1st and 2nd in either order. Again I ve covered the reasoning elsewhere and given I can t see City out of the top two, this bet makes more sense than backing Liverpool to finish in the top two at 10/11 Middlesbrough to finish in Top 6 (Championship) @ 11/10 I ve covered this in the Championship section. Burton Albion Top Half Finish (League 1) @ 5/4 Burton are the biggest price of the three that went down to League One and their price is perhaps a little too big. Their days were always going to be numbered in the Championship with such little resources but fact remains they were competitive. Compare them to Rotherham, who were getting smashed every week in the Championship during the 16/17 season and were relegated with just 23 pts having conceded 98 goals, yet were able to bounce back up with a 4th place finish in League One. Burton have an experienced manager in Nigel Clough and largely the same squad that has been competitive, if not quite good 26
enough, at Championship level the last two seasons. They opened with defeat against Rochdale but dominated the shots on goal with 9 attempts to 2. Lincoln City to finish in Top 7 (League 2) @ 4/7 Lincoln are a side I ve followed since they were promoted the the EFL and they have continued to be progressive under Danny Cowley, they can move on from a decent return season in the football league last year where they managed not only a 7th place finish but also to win the Football League trophy which for me means their League performance can be marked up a tad. They ve done good work in the transfer market with John Akinde proven at this level and should be able to at least repeat a playoff berth or better. 4 fold Acca @ 21.28/1 Skybet 27
More to come Hopefully you enjoyed this guide and it ll help you to pick up some decent profit from the football in 2018/19. That s not all though as throughout the season I ll also be sending you regular messages from Matchdayprofits.com, so do keep an eye out for those. The bulk of the money-making advice will be shared with members only however, and my service is now open to new members for a limited period until the start of the season. Check out my offer here: http://matchdayprofits.com/2018-season-offer/ Thanks and Good Luck! Ps. I welcome any comments, questions or feedback at: http://matchdayprofits.com/contact/ 28