Vail Town Council & Vail Economic Advisory Council Update June 21, 2016 Presented by Ralf Garrison
INDEX 1. Introduction 2. Market Update 3. History: Winter 2015/16 4. Outlook: Summer 2016 5. What you ought to know 2
MTNWEST Aspen Avon, Colorado Big Sky Breckenridge Beaver Creek Copper Gunnison/Crested Butte Keystone Mt Bachelor Mammoth Lakes Jackson Hole North Lake Tahoe Snowmass Steamboat Park City Area Summit County, CO Telluride Vail Winter Park SUN&BEACH Hilton Head Florida Keys Golden Isles Experience Kissimmee Visit Florida ASSOCIATIONS&CORPORATIONS Onsite Property Management Association Colorado Hotel & Lodging Association Vail Resorts - Lodging Destination Hotels & Resorts Mtn Collection
Vail Property Participation Reports with data as of May 31, 2016 include: 25 properties representing 2,456 units 62% of total community census 4
25 Data Submitting Properties Antlers at Vail Arrabelle at Vail Square Christiania Lodge & Christiania Condos Destination Resorts Vail Vail Cascade Condos Vail Cascade Resort & Spa Evergreen Lodge at Vail Four Seasons Resort Vail Lion Square Lodge Lodge at Lionshead Lodge Tower Manor Vail Resort Montaneros Sitzmark Lodge Sonnenalp Resort of Vail The Sebastian The Wren Tivoli Lodge Vail Mountain Lodge Vail Racquet Club Vail Spa Condominiums Vail Marriott The Lodge at Vail The Ritz-Carlton Residences 5
INDEX 1. Introduction 2. Market Update 3. History: Winter 2015/16 4. Outlook: Summer 2016 5. What you ought to know 6
Confidence, The DOW & Unemployment January 06 Apr 16 15.0% 14.0% 13.0% 12.0% 11.0% Dow Jones 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 7.0% Confidence 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% Unemployment 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 17,773.6 94.2 5.0% 200.0 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 14
Market Update Jan 2014: $1 CAD = $0.94 USD Jan 2014: 1 EUR = $1.36 USD June 2016: $1 CAD = $0.77 USD June 2016: 1 EUR = $1.13 USD +18% +17% 8
Economic Overview Economic Tide: Softer and uncertain. Election adds wildcard Battle for the Beds: More Demand than Supply, adds to price, drives shift to highest/best use = short term Rent-By-Owner Channels come into mainstream Regulatory pushback is growing, sometimes potentially over-reaching Attractions: Shifting, Slowly but Surely Legacy attractions (Ski/Golf, etc.): Flat at Best Social/Group Based Exercise - Less competitive/timed events, more socially based Increased influence of Post Title 9, and more X Chromosome influenced Consumer Shifts in 2016: More Leisure than Business (Air) Travel Millennials than Boomers Women than Men: Running events example 9
INDEX 1. Introduction 2. Market Update 3. Review: Winter 2015/16 4. Outlook: Summer 2016 5. What you ought to know 10
Occupancy Winter 15/16 Data as of April 30, 2016 11
Data as of April 30, 2016 ADR Winter 15/16 12
Data as of April 30, 2016 RevPAR Winter 15/16 13
Vail Seasonal Totals by Month Occupancy ADR RevPAR Nov '15-6% +4% -2% Dec '15-5% +5% 0% Jan '16-2% +5% +3% Feb '16-2% +6% +3% Mar '16 0% +5% +4% Apr '16-1% +5% +3% 14
Vail Ski Season 15/16 Sales Tax Year over Year % Change Retail - 2.52 % Lodging & Property Mgmt + 3.18 % Food and Beverage + 0.12 % Other + 3.57% TOTAL + 0.69% 15
As of April 30, 2016 Vail MDC 16
Occupancy Data as of November 30, 2015 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% Vail Daily Occupancy Winter 2015/16 31-Oct-15 7-Nov-15 14-Nov-15 21-Nov-15 28-Nov-15 5-Dec-15 12-Dec-15 19-Dec-15 26-Dec-15 9-Jan-16 2-Jan-16 16-Jan-16 23-Jan-16 30-Jan-16 6-Feb-16 13-Feb-16 20-Feb-16 Date(Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays) 27-Feb-16 5-Mar-16 12-Mar-16 19-Mar-16 26-Mar-16 2-Apr-16 9-Apr-16 16-Apr-16 23-Apr-16 30-Apr-16 17
Occupancy Data as of April 30, 2016 Vail Daily Occupancy Winter 2015/16 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% 2015/16 YTD vs. 2014/15 YTD as of 4/30 (22-24 properties) 2015/16 - as of 4/30/16 (24 properties included) 2014/15 - as of 4/30/15 (22 properties included) 2014/15 - historic actuals (22 properties included) 31-Oct-15 7-Nov-15 14-Nov-15 21-Nov-15 28-Nov-15 5-Dec-15 12-Dec-15 19-Dec-15 26-Dec-15 2-Jan-16 9-Jan-16 16-Jan-16 23-Jan-16 30-Jan-16 6-Feb-16 13-Feb-16 Date (Gridlines Aligned with Saturdays) 20-Feb-16 27-Feb-16 5-Mar-16 12-Mar-16 19-Mar-16 26-Mar-16 2-Apr-16 9-Apr-16 16-Apr-16 23-Apr-16 30-Apr-16 18
Vail vs. Industry Winter Performance 2007/08 2015/16 50.0% 40.0% Industry % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007/08 Industry % Chg ADR vs 2007/08 Industry % Chg Revenue vs 2007/08 Vail % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007/08 Vail % Chg ADR vs 2007/08 Vail % Chg Revenue vs 2007/08 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 26.7% 24.3% 15.6% 11.3% 3.4% -2.1% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% '07/08 '08/09 vs '07/08 '09/10 vs '07/08 '10/11/vs 07/08 '11/12 vs 07/08 '12/13 vs '07/08 13/14 vs '07/08 14/15 vs '07/08 15/16 vs '07/08 19
46.7 Skier/Snowboarder Visits (millions) 50.0 50.8 51.0 51.9 52.7 52.5 52.1 52.2 53.7 53.3 53.9 54.0 54.0 53.6 54.1 53.9 54.6 54.4 55.1 56.2 57.3 57.1 56.9 57.6 57.4 56.9 58.9 59.8 60.5 60.5 Estimated Skier Visits 85/86-15/16 and 4 Year Moving Average 62 60 58 15/16 Colorado Skier Visits: 7.4 million 2015/16 53.9 56 54 52 50 48 +.56% 46 44 20
INDEX 1. Introduction 2. Market Update 3. History: Winter 2015/16 4. Outlook: Summer 2016 5. What you ought to know 21
Summer 2016 Business On the Books as % of 2015 total as of 5/31/16 2016 Nights 63.4% 2016 Revenue 71.4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 22
Occupancy Summer 2016 Data as of May 31, 2016 23
Data as of May 31, 2016 ADR Summer 2016 24
RevPAR Summer 2016 Data as of May 31, 2016 25
Vail MDC 26
As of May 31, 2016 Vail Daily Occupancy Summer 2016 27
Vail vs. Industry Summer Performance 2007 2015 70.0% 60.0% Industry % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007 Industry % Change ADR vs 2007 Industry % Change Revenue vs 2007 Vail % Chg Occ. Rate vs 2007 Vail % Change ADR vs 2007 Vail % Change Revenue vs 2007 68.4% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 44.3% 35.3% 27.6% 22.0% 12.8% 0.0% -10.0% -20.0% -30.0% 2007 '08 vs '07 '09 vs '07 '10 vs '07 '11 vs '07 '12 vs '07 13 VS '07 14 VS '07 15 VS '07
INDEX 1. Introduction 2. Market Update 3. History: Winter 2015/16 4. Outlook: Summer 2016 5. What you ought to know 29
Destination Dashboard 30
Group vs FIT 31
32 Click Morphing to edit Master Bed Base title style Rent By Owner Private Homes VRBO Airbnb Hotels HomeAway.com Condos Time Share Graphic representation not to scale. 18
33 Click DOR to Special edit Master Event title Overlay style
Thank you! 34