Recent Environmental Conditions and BC Salmon Outlook to 2020 K. Hyatt & S. Grant Pacific Biological Station, Nanaimo Contributors: I. Perry, L. Weitkamp, M. Galbraith, J. Boldt, P. Chandler, S. King, D. Patterson, J. Hills B. MacDonald, J. King H. Freeland, A. Sastri, J. Dower, M. Hipfner, M. Robert, D. Yelland Image from UNAVCO: http://jules.unavco.org/voyagerjr/earth?zoom=in;region=easternpacific_2_1 Hyatt and Grant et al. January 24, 2018, Presentation to Fraser River First Nations Fisheries Forum, Richmond BC. 1
Record global temperatures in 2015 (with some exceptions) Surface temperature anomalies NASA Perry, PIPSC North Central VI Branch Presentation, 1 June 2016
Global land and ocean temperature anomalies, 1880-2015 Perry, PIPSC North Central VI Branch Presentation, 1 June 2016 Updated from NOAA December 8 2017 NOAA
Adult Migration, Spawning, Egg Incubation & Freshwater Rearing (Key Years 2013-2015) 4 DFO Fraser Stock Assessment
Why do we care about Freshwater Conditions for Salmon? Patterson & Hills: Literature Review DFO 2016 Parental and Offspring Experiences Matter: Egg size, fry size maternal discharge/temp exposure Gamete viability parental temp/discharge exposure Fertilization temperature - affects egg survival Fry swim performance maternal stress, disease status Predator avoidance maternal stress Prey production and availability temp/discharge influence Smolt quality depends on rearing environment Current challenge is to link individual level research to population level consequences 5
British Columbia June Snow Pack (Percent of Normal) 2013 2014 2012 2015 6
Fraser River Environmental Watch D. Patterson & J. Hills, DFO 2013 20 high pre-spawn & disease 18 decreased swimming 2014 June July Aug Sep Oct 2012 2015 June July Aug Sep Oct 7
Max temp anomalies in spawning & rearing areas 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, and PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, (Jan. 2014). High Resolution Climatology. July Aug D. Patterson & J. Hills Sep Oct Nov 8
Juvenile Salmon in Freshwater (Key Years 2014-2016) 9
Spring: max temp anomalies Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Unive rsity of Victoria, and PRISM Climate Group, Oregon State University, (Jan. 2014). High Resolution Climatology. D. Patterson & J. Hills 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Spring: precipitation anomalies 10
Juvenile Salmon in the Ocean (Key Years 2015-2018) 11
State of the Ocean 2015 Chandler, King & Perry (editors) DFO Tech Report 3149 Two significant ocean events were observed in the Northeast Pacific in 2013-2015: the continued warming of the upper 100 m of the central Gulf of Alaska (colloquially referred to as the Blob ) during the first half of 2015, and a strong El Niño during late 2015 and early 2016. Phytoplankton blooms off the west coast of Vancouver Island were observed earlier (May) and remained longer (August) than normal. This bloom included species which produce domoic acid, a neurotoxin for vertebrates, but, in contrast to widespread shellfishery closures along the US coast, only three areas along the west coast of Vancouver Island were closed to shellfish harvesting as a consequence of this bloom. The very warm water anomaly did not induce widespread Sockeye Salmon recruitment failures in 2015, but did influence the return timing and size-at-age traits of many populations. The warm ocean conditions in 2015 and El Niño in 2016 are likely to have produced unfavourable survival conditions for Central-to-South Coast salmon that went to sea in 2015, and therefore reduced returns in 2016-2018 of these stocks are expected (Hyatt et al, in Chandler, Perry and King, 2015).. 12
2012 (Jan-Dec) 2013 (Jan-June) 2013 (June-Dec) 2014 (Jan-Dec) Blob Blob (coastal) Blob 2015 (Jan-Dec) 2016 (Jan-Dec) 2017 (Jan-Dec) Blob El Niño Blob (at depth) Blob gone La Niña Reference Period from 1981 to 2010 13
Peter Chandler, DFO SOPO 2016 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 14
Perry and Hyatt. CSAS Regional Advisory Process, Fraser Sockeye 2016 Return Forecast Suppl. Meeting, Vancouver, 21 January 2016 Changes in water temperature are reflected in changes in zooplankton species composition northern-type zooplankton occurred along Vancouver Island in 1 st half of 2014 when water was cool (large nutritious species, good for fish) 1 mm but, southern-type zooplankton in 2 nd half of 2014 and in 2015, 2016 when water was warm (small poor quality species)
/BC Source: Laurie Weitkamp NOAA, Northwest Fisheries Science Centre, Seattle. 16
cold-ocean warm-ocean 2015, 2016 and 2017 ranked as the 17 th, 19 th and 15 th worst index years out of 20! 17
Coast-wide Sockeye in 2017 (Outlook for average to strongly, sub-average returns verified) ) 1 Tahltan (Ak Transboundary) 2 Nass (North Coast) 3 Smith Inlet (Central Coast) 4 Chilko (South Coast Fraser)? 5 Somass (West Coast Vancouver Is.) 6 Okanagan (Columbia R.) Total Returns in 1000 s Observed Returns Forecast Returns All Year Average Hyatt et al, 2015, SOPO annual report
19 S.Grant, 2016 SOPO annual report
Strong northsouth inverse production pattern in 2016 & 2017. Source: Laurie Weitkamp, NOAA Fisheries
WCVI marine conditions 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Pacific Decadal Oscillation Index 10 4 6 5 11 16 15 17 12 13 2 9 7 3 1 8 18 20 19 14 North Pacific Gyre Oscillation Index 14 5 3 1 8 10 13 19 15 9 2 11 6 7 4 12 16 20 18 17 El Nino Index 13 4 5 9 19 14 18 17 12 8 2 10 3 1 11 6 15 20 16 7 Amphitrite Point SST 17 1 8 3 4 12 16 18 11 5 6 9 14 10 2 7 15 19 20 13 Cool-water copepods 11 3 10 14 1 12 6 16 7 2 5 4 8 13 9 17 15 18 19 Overall 15 1 4 4 9 14 16 18 12 7 1 9 8 6 3 11 17 20 19 13 Numbers and colours indicate each index relative rank from best (1) to worst (20) conditions for juvenile salmon The Pacific Decadal Oscillation & North Pacific Gyre Oscillation Indices provide an indication of large-scale North Pacific sea surface temperature spatial patterns 2014-2016 indicative of impacts of The Blob and El Nino The El Nino index (Relatively strong 2016 El Nino gave way to a relatively weak 2017 La Nina). Sea surface temperature at Amphitrite Point (return to cooler temperatures in 2017 after the 2014-2016 coastal impacts of The Blob and El Nino) Relative abundance of subarctic copepods (cool-water species, large and nutritious) poor in 2014-2016 (2017 data not yet available, but VERY preliminary results indicate more normal abundance). 21 J. King & I. Perry, Marine Environmental Background for 2018 Outlook ppt Dec 2017
Sources of 2018 Returns spawning & egg incubation frystream frylake Juvenile- Ocean Spawning in 2018 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Sockeye (5sub2) lake Chinook (5sub2) stream Sockeye (4sub2) Chinook (4sub2) Sockeye/Chum/Chinook (4sub1) lake stream Sockeye (3sub2: jacks) Coho (3sub2) Sockeye/Chum (3sub1) lake stream Pink (2sub1) 22
Summary: warmer conditions Exceptionally warm conditions in recent years both in freshwater and marine ecosystems Warm during adult migration, spawning, and juvenile rearing (broadly) Warm Northeast Pacific Ocean ( Blob and El Niño from 2013-2016) Poor feeding conditions (broadly, eastern Pacific rim from N. California to Alaska) Warm water species in BC marine waters ( exotic predators, competitors and prey) Poor returns in 2016 and 2017 as anticipated in SOPO outlook statements for Southern BC Sockeye, Pink and Chinook salmon while Chum returns were anomalously high. 2019-2020 earliest one may expect any reversion to more favourable return patterns by salmon and especially those from the central to south coast, although Chum may be the exception. 23
Questions? Fisheries and Oceans Pêches et Océans Canada Canada Canada Hyatt & Grant et al. Presentation to Fraser R. First Nations Fisheries Forum, Richmond BC., Jan 24, 2018,