Fraser Sockeye Science Integration: 2018 Returns. Prepared by: Sue Grant & Bronwyn MacDonald, DFO State of Salmon Program

Fraser Sockeye Science Integration: 2018 Returns Prepared by: Sue Grant & Bronwyn MacDonald, DFO State of Salmon Program 1

Fraser Sockeye Science Integration Across Salmon Life-History Stages Published this year in 2018 as a DFO Technical Report State of the Salmon Program (SOS): S. Grant/B. MacDonald Fraser Sockeye Operational Program: K. Benner (incorporates information from various First Nation and DFO groups) Environmental Watch Program: D. Patterson/K. Robinson Lakes Research Program: D. Selbie/L. Pon Mission Smolt Program: J. Tadey/T.Whitehouse Strait of Georgia Salmon Program: C. Neville Coastal Salmon: J. King/S.Tucker Ocean Conditions: J. Boldt Stock ID: S. Latham Chief Biologist: M. Lapointe 2

Theme: the warming continued Image Credit NASA/SDO 3

Age of Maturity Marine 2 Winters May-June 2016 Most Fraser Sockeye Mature as Four Year Olds Freshwater 2 Winters June-October 2016 First Winter 2017 Second Winter 2018 Brood Year July-Oct 2014 April-May 2015 July-Oct 2018 April-May 2016 Return: 4 yrs 4

Global land and ocean temperature anomalies, 1880-2015 Cooler temperature Warmer temperature Perry, PIPSC North Central VI Branch Presentation, 1 June 2016 (Updated from NOAA December 8 2017)

#1: 1904 Data source: NASA/GISS Credit: NASA Scientific Visualization Studio Since late-1880 s: coolest global temperatures on record were #1: 1904 #2: 1909 #3: 1908 6

#1: 2016 Data source: NASA/GISS Credit: NASA Scientific Visualization Studio Since late-1880 s: warmest global temperatures on record were #1: 2016 #2: 2015 #3: 2017 7

2014 Adult Upstream Migration and Spawning (hot temperatures & normal discharge) Globe & Mail Photo Credit T. Whitehouse hand model 8

2014 Fraser Sockeye Escapement by Key Stocks Arrival time late but spawning time normal fish healthy looking Management Group Spawning Escapement % Fraser Total Early Stuart 70 K 1% E. Shuswap 500 K 9% Chilko 1 M 17% Quesnel 800,00 14% L. Shuswap 2 M 38% Total 5.9 M 100% K.Benner, Fraser SK Ops StAD 9

Temperature 2014 Fraser Temperatures were hot Hope Chilko June July August Sept D. Patterson & K. Robinson, E-Watch 10

2014 Fraser discharge was average to low: No concerns for sockeye migration due to discharge D. Patterson & K. Robinson, E-Watch 11

Seasonal Air Temperature Anomalies: Egg Incubation (2014-2015) Fall 2014 Winter 2015 Spring 2015 Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium varied hot hot D. Patterson & K. Robinson, E-Watch 12

2014 Fraser Sockeye Escapement by Key Stocks Management Group Spawning Escapement Spawning Success % Fraser Total Early Stuart 70 K 67% 1% E. Shuswsap 500 K 93% 9% Chilko 1 M 100% 17% Quesnel 800 K 96% 14% L. Shuswap 2 M 96% 38% Total 5.9 M 96% 100% K.Benner, Fraser SK Ops StAD 13

Why do we care about conditions adults experienced in 2014? Parental experience matters: parental temp/discharge exposure-gamete viability maternal stress -egg size & fry size maternal stress & disease status -fry swimming ability fertilization temperature -egg survival Challenge is linking individual-level research results to population-level consequences D. Patterson & K. Robinson, E-Watch 14

2014 Lake Rearing (warm) 15

Seasonal Air Temperature Anomalies: Juvenile Rearing (Spring-Summer 2015) Spring 2015 Summer 2015 Fall 2015 hot hot Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium cool D. Patterson & K. Robinson, E-Watch 16

Seasonal Air Temperature Anomalies: Juvenile Overwintering (Fall-Winter 2015-2016) Winter 2016 Spring 2016 warm Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium hot D. Patterson & K. Robinson, E-Watch 17

2016 Smolt Outmigration 18

April 2016 Air Temperatures April 2016 Data Source: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium D. Patterson & K. Robinson, E-Watch 19

Juvenile Outmigration Conditions: 2016 Lower Fraser River Freshet Early freshet High run-off in April Day of year records in early April Data Sources: Water Survey of Canada, Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium D. Patterson & K. Robinson, E-Watch 20

Ocean Conditions 2016-2018 S. Grant, K. Hyatt, I. Perry, J. Boldt, J. King, J. Irvine, B. MacDonald. DFO Salmon Outlook Mttg. Dec 13 2017 21 21

Sea-Surface Temperature Anomalies 2012 (Jan-Dec) 2013 (Jan-June) 2013 (June-Dec) 2014 (Jan-Dec) Blob Blob (coastal) Blob 2015 (Jan-Dec) 2016 (Jan-Dec) 2017 (Jan-Dec) Blob El Niño Blob (at depth) Blob gone Reference Period from 1981 to 2010 S. Grant, K. Hyatt, I. Perry, J. Boldt, J. King, J. Irvine, B. MacDonald. DFO Salmon Outlook Mttg. Dec 13 2017 22

Changes in water temperature are reflected in changes in zooplankton species composition northern-type zooplankton occurred along Vancouver Island in 1 st half of 2014 when water was cool (large nutritious species, good for fish) 1 mm but, southern-type zooplankton in 2 nd half of 2014 and in 2015 when water was warm (small poor quality species) Author: Moira Galbraith and Ian Perry (DFO)

Ricker broke down in 2016 so survey late-- so CPUE difficult to interpret this year No indication of any poor condition of juveniles 24

Key Fraser Sockeye Stock Proportions: Excluding Mission Smolts escapement SOG forecast 25

Chilko Jacks: 3,000 Four Year old forecast: 1 M (lines up with 10p forecast) Quesnel Jacks: 2,000 Four Year old forecast: 150K (lines up with 10p forecast) Late Shuswap: available shortly Benner & Grant 26

Theme: the warming continued Stay Tuned Image Credit NASA/SDO 27

2018 Fraser River Sockeye Forecast Fisheries and Oceans Canada Pêches et Océans Canada G. Pestal, B. MacDonald & S.Grant Fraser Sockeye Forecast PST 2018 28

Low returns In last decade 29

2017 Forecasts and Preliminary Return Estimates A Run timing group Stocks Early Stuart F B G H I J K L Mean Run Size Probability that Return will be at/or Below Specified Run Size a all cycles Forecast c 2017 Model cycle b d 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% Ricker 298,000 (Ei) 754,000 42,000 64,000 99,000 158,000 253,000 Early Summer (total excluding miscellaneous) Bowron -- 523,000 Ricker 37,000 (Pi) -- 272,000 23,000 102,000 78,000 2,000 182,000 132,000 4,000 378,000 250,000 7,000 836,000 563,000 12,000 2,020,000 1,444,000 21,000 Fennell power 24,000 12,000 5,000 8,000 14,000 25,000 43,000 Gates Larkin 56,000 46,000 15,000 25,000 49,000 96,000 197,000 Nadina MRJ 75,000 67,000 19,000 35,000 67,000 129,000 232,000 Pitt Scotch Seymour Misc (Early Shuswap) e Misc (Taseko) e Misc (Chilliwack) Misc (Nahatlatch) f Summer (total excluding miscellaneous) Chilko Late Stuart Quesnel Stellako Harrison h & i Raft h Misc (N. Thomp. Tribs) h & j Misc (N. Thomp River) h & j Misc (Widgeon) k Larkin 71,000 74,000 35,000 52,000 84,000 140,000 227,000 Larkin 116,000 22,000 0 1,000 9,000 90,000 533,000 Larkin 144,000 28,000 2,000 7,000 20,000 71,000 191,000 R/S -- -- 8,000 18,000 42,000 68,000 120,000 R/S -- -- 100 300 500 900 1,300 Ricker -- -- 14,000 28,000 78,000 191,000 431,000 R/S 3,873,000 6,546,000 1,048,000 1,826,000 3,348,000 6,508,000 12,312,000 Larkin 1,415,000 881,000 663,000 1,168,000 2,142,000 4,090,000 7,588,000 power 527,000 1,564,000 100,000 190,000 375,000 789,000 1,561,000 Ricker 1,304,000 (Ei) 3,726,000 45,000 91,000 192,000 466,000 951,000 Larkin 466,000 241,000 174,000 247,000 355,000 503,000 734,000 3-Ricker; 130,0004-sibling 108,000 52,000 109,000 251,000 603,000 1,390,000 Ricker 31,000 (PDO) 26,000 14,000 21,000 33,000 57,000 88,000 R/S R/S R/S -- -- 2,000 4,000 7,000 13,000 24,000 -- -- 1,065,000 1,861,000 3,407,000 6,631,000 12,560,000 -- -- 2,000 5,000 8,000 17,000 34,000 -- -- 14,000 28,000 47,000 98,000 199,000 -- -- 1,000 2,000 4,000 8,000 15,000 Late (total exlcuding miscellaneous) Cultus g **Late Shuswap Portage Weaver xx Birkenhead Misc non-shuswap k TOTAL SOCKEYE SALMON (TOTAL excluding miscellaneous) -- -- 113,000 247,000 583,000 1,292,000 2,849,000 3,171,000 837,000 106,000 234,000 557,000 1,244,000 2,765,000 Power 37,000 (juv) (Pi) 14,000 1,000 1,000 3,000 6,000 13,000 Larkin 2,409,000 200,000 12,000 58,000 174,000 444,000 1,027,000 Larkin 41,000 45,000 8,000 20,000 51,000 139,000 331,000 power 332,000 (juv) (Ei) 282,000 43,000 84,000 186,000 398,000 880,000 Ricker 352,000 (Ei) 296,000 42,000 71,000 143,000 257,000 514,000 R/S -- -- 7,000 13,000 26,000 48,000 84,000 -- -- 1,322,000 2,354,000 4,467,000 8,917,000 17,682,000 30

Return Year Forecast Probability Level <10% 10% 25% 50% 75% 90% Actual Returns 1998 NA 4,391,000 6,040,000 6,822,000 11,218,000 G 18,801,000 10,870,000 1999 NA 3,067,000 R 4,267,000 4,843,000 8,248,000 14,587,000 3,640,000 2000 NA 1,487,000 2,449,000 4,304,000 Y 7,752,000 NA 5,200,000 2001 NA 3,869,000 6,797,000 O 12,864,000 24,660,000 NA 7,190,000 2002 NA 4,859,000 7,694,400 12,915,900 Y 22,308,500 NA 15,130,000 2003 NA 1,908,000 2,742,000 3,141,000 Y 5,502,000 G 9,744,000 4,890,000 2004 NA 1,858,000 2,615,000 2,980,000 Y 5,139,000 G 9,107,000 4,180,000 2005 NA 5,149,000 O 8,734,000 O 16,160,000 30,085,000 53,191,000 7,020,000 2006 NA 5,683,000 9,530,000 O 17,357,000 31,902,000 56,546,000 12,980,000 2007 NA R 2,242,500 3,602,000 6,247,000 11,257,000 19,706,000 1,510,000 2008 NA 1,258,000 O 1,854,000 O 2,899,000 4,480,000 7,057,000 1,740,000 2009 NA R 3,556,000 6,039,000 10,578,000 19,451,000 37,617,000 1,590,000 2010 NA 5,360,000 8,351,000 13,989,000 23,541,000 G 40,924,000 28,250,000 2011 NA 1,700,000 2,693,000 4,627,000 Y 9,074,000 15,086,000 5,110,000 2012 NA 743,000 1,203,000 2,119,000 Y 3,763,000 6,634,000 2,050,000 2013 NA 1,554,000 2,655,000 4,765,000 Y 8,595,000 15,608,000 4,130,000 2014 NA 7,237,000 12,788,000 22,854,000 Y 41,121,000 72,014,000 20,000,000 2015 NA 2,364,000 R 3,824,000 6,778,000 12,635,000 23,580,000 2,120,000 2016 NA 814,000 R 1,296,000 2,271,000 4,227,000 8,181,000 853,000 2017 NA 1,315,000 R 2,338,000 4,432,000 8,873,000 17,633,000 1,500,000* 31

Forecast is 10% five year olds Pitt is 90% five year olds Birkenhead is 62% five year olds 30K EFS 50K EFS 32

Brood Year Escapements Run timing group Stocks Early Stuart 23,300 Early Summer 2014 Brood Year (Age-4) Total EFS 3,063,500 <1% Bowron 6,300 Upper Barriere 6,800 Gates 8,500 Nadina 30,700 Pitt 14,400 Scotch 68,800 Seymour 57,400 Misc (Early Shuswap) 118,000 Misc. (Taseko) 50 Misc. (Chilliwack) 3,000 Misc. (Nahatlatch) 2,100 4% 10% Summer 127,367 Chilko 666,000 Late Stuart 27,900 Quesnel 431,000 Stellako 240,400 Raft 9,500 Harrison 238,400 Misc. (N. Thomp. Tribs.) 800 Misc. (N. Thomp. River) 12,000 Misc. (Widgeon) 100 22% 14% 8% 8% 53% Above Average (30%) smolts Late Cultus 50,900 Late Shuswap 1,053,500 Portage 12,300 Weaver 10,400 Birkenhead 19,600 Misc. Lillooet/Harrison 3,600 34% 36% (Below Average (64%) 33

2018 Fraser Sockeye Forecasts 0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 10%: 5.2 M 25%: 8.4 M 50%: 14 M 75%: 22.9 M 90%: 36.9 M 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 Early Stuart 1% 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 Early Summer 15% 584K 2.1 M 6.6 M Misc Early Shuswap 7% Seymour 4% Scotch 2% 35

2018 Fraser Sockeye Forecasts 0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 10%: 5.2 M 25%: 8.4 M 50%: 14 M 75%: 22.9 M 90%: 36.9 M 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 Early Stuart 1% 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 Early Summer 15% 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 Summer 31% 1.5 M 4.3 M 13.2 M Chilko 16% Quesnel 8% Stellako 4% 36

2018 Fraser Sockeye Forecasts 0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 10%: 5.2 M 25%: 8.4 M 50%: 14 M 75%: 22.9 M 90%: 36.9 M 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 Early Stuart 1% 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 Early Summer 15% 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 Summer 31% 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 3.2 M 7.4 M 16.9 M Late 53% Late Shuswap 50% Weaver 1% Birkenhead 1% 37

2018 Fraser Sockeye Forecasts Population Probability Level Forecasts 10% 25% Early Stuart EN RED RED Early Summer Run Bowron EN RED RED Upper Barriere (Fennell) THR RED YELLOW Gates NAR YELLOW YELLOW Nadina NAR YELLOW GREEN Pitt NAR RED RED Scotch NAR RED RED Seymour NAR RED YELLOW Summer Run Chilko NAR RED YELLOW Late Stuart EN RED RED Quesnel EN RED YELLOW Stellako SC RED RED Harrison NAR YELLOW YELLOW Raft SC YELLOW YELLOW Late Run WSP Status (2017) COSEWIC Listing Cultus EN RED RED Late Shuswap NAR RED RED Portage EN RED RED Weaver EN RED RED Birkenhead SC RED RED 38

2018 Fraser Sockeye Forecasts 39

Definition of COSEWIC terms and status categories: Extinct (X): A wildlife species that no longer exists. Extirpated (XT): A wildlife species that no longer exists in the wild in Canada, but exists elsewhere. Endangered (E): A wildlife species facing imminent extirpation or extinction. Threatened (T): A wildlife species that is likely to become Endangered if nothing is done to reverse the factors leading to its extirpation or extinction. Special Concern (SC): A wildlife species that may become Threatened or Endangered because of a combination of biological characteristics and identified threats. 40