THE GREEN SHEET Volume XXVII Issue 17 November 6, 2017 $12.00 TOUGH WEEK TO START NOVEMBER 29-21 IN OUR TOP RATING 5 KEYS THE LAST 2 YEARS 4TH QUARTER COVERS - NCAA WEEK 10 Ohio (-6½) 45, Miami, OH 28: This Tuesday night MAC East showdown featured a dramatic line move before kickoff as the favorite price on the Bobcats fell from -10 to -6½. There was some speculation that Miami quarterback Gus Ragland might return however the Redhawks were still competitive without him. Miami scored with just over three minutes remaining in the third quarter to knot the score at 28-28. That would be the last time Miami scored however as Ohio scored back-to-back touchdowns and added a late field goal. Miami s final three drives netted nearly 100 yards but no points, failing going for it on 4th down on three consecutive possessions. Central Michigan (+4) 35, Western Michigan 28: Playing without quarterback Jon Wassink in rainy conditions Wednesday night the Broncos led 28-14 through three quarters as a slight home favorite despite very little production in the passing game. A fumble sparked the comeback for the Chippewas, scoring a touchdown three plays later to climb within seven and after forcing a quick punt Central Michigan scored again on a short field drive to tie the game with about six minutes remaining. Central Michigan got the ball back immediately after a short kickoff was fumbled but they needed to punt, the defense forced Western Michigan followed suit. Getting the ball back at its own 23-yard-line Central Michigan needed one play to go the distance with a big pass strike, taking the lead for the first time in the game. With still more than two minutes remaining the Broncos were stopped near midfield on 4th-and-19. Toledo (-7½) 27, Northern Illinois 17: The Big MAC West showdown Thursday night lived up to its billing with a very competitive game. Northern Illinois took a 14-10 lead just after halftime but Toledo quickly answered and then pulled past the favorite spread with a 10-point advantage through three quarters on a spread that dipped from -10 down to -7½ at kickoff. A blocked punt set the Huskies up to get back in the game but Northern Illinois had to settle for a short field goal, getting back within seven early in the fourth quarter. Toledo responded in kind with a 34-yard field goal with nine minutes remaining. Toledo got an interception to thwart the following Huskies drive and with a chance to climb back within the underdog spread Northern Illinois missed a field goal at the 3:46 mark. Northern Illinois got the ball back with just over a minute remaining but time expired as the Huskies reached the Toledo 25-yard-line as the Rockets took command of the division and scored a narrow favorite cover. Florida Atlantic (-6½) 30, Marshall 25: While the early week spread reached as high as - 9½ to support the surging Owls, Florida Atlantic was still ahead of the closing spread of -6½ after a Marshall touchdown with five minutes remaining cut the margin to just seven points. Florida Atlantic punted back to Marshall but going for it on 4th down Chase Litton was intercepted to effectively end the game, or at least that s what the Owls coaching staff led by Lane Kiffin believed. Florida Atlantic took a knee on the first three downs but miscalculated the remaining time and wound up with 4th down from their own 24-yard-line with still 14 seconds remaining. At that point the Owls opted to have the punter run back to the end zone to take a safety, obviously a critical play for those involved on the pointspread. Clemson (-9½) 38, NC State 31: Clemson broke an 89-yard touchdown run as the third quarter expired to lead by 10 going into the final frame. That was the margin after trading scores in the fourth quarter until a NC State field goal with just under two minutes remaining made it a 7-point margin, which was briefly the spread on this game early in the week before a steady rise to -9½. Clemson s next possession ran just 27 seconds off the clock and NC State was a threat to force overtime or consider going for the win as they had a few shots at the end zone in the closing seconds. Ryan Finley s final pass was intercepted and returned 55 yards to give Clemson backers a moment of hope but the 38-31 final held. Purdue (-15) 29, Illinois 10: Purdue only led by three at halftime and just 16-10 heading into the fourth quarter. A pair of touchdown drives in the final frame put the Boilermakers past the spread, aided by an interception setting up good field position for the second touchdown. Illinois reached the Purdue 32-yard-line in the final minutes but failed to add points. Mississippi (+3½) 37, Kentucky 34: The Rebels rallied from a 10-point deficit to tie the game by the end of the third quarter. In the fourth a solid punt return helped the Rebels take a three-point lead with a field goal but with just over two minutes remaining Kentucky completed a 95-yard touchdown drive to lead 34-30, just past the favorite spread. Jordan Ta amu delivered a fine two-minute-drill for the Rebels eventually getting the go-ahead completion on 3rd down with five seconds remaining for a minor upset. Northwestern (+1½) 31, Nebraska 24: Nebraska led 24-17 heading into the fourth quarter after settling for a short field goal. Nebraska had scored earlier in the third quarter on an interception return but in the fourth quarter a red zone interception cost the Huskers a chance to make it a two-score game. Northwestern followed the turnover with a 13-play 84-yard touchdown drive to tie the game. Nebraska reached the Northwestern 40-yard-line but opted to punt with a minute remaining. Continue reading at www.vegasinsider.com. Between the Lines... Not everyone loves the NFL Total QBR metric but it is incredible to see the top three all players that came into the league in the past two seasons. Tragically the current leader won t qualify by season s end as Deshaun Watson s exciting rookie season came to an abrupt end. Dak Prescott and Carson Wentz will face off for the first time this season in Week 11 in a highly anticipated NFC East clash. Jared Goff also cracks the top 10 in Total QBR as a second year signal-caller but it is worth noting that three of the bottom nine rated players are also first or second year quarterbacks, obviously in much worse situations. While most NFL teams have taken the approach that running backs are replaceable, Adrian Peterson is currently the league s yards per game leader since moving to Arizona, posting 105 yards per game at age 32. Leading the NFL in rushing is a 3rd round rookie from the MAC in Kareem Hunt with 800 yards as both camps of thought have a case however. Yards per play has long been considered an important measure and the league s top seven features some of the best teams in the league with the Chiefs, Saints, Rams, Patriots, Cowboys, and Eagles. Those six teams are a combined 37-13 S/U and 33-17 ATS. The outlier in the group is the Falcons, second in the league in yards per play but limping to 4-4 with losses in four of the last five games and a current 0-5 ATS run. Also eighth in the NFL in yards per play is Tampa Bay, now 2-6 S/U and 1-6-1 ATS and one of the biggest disappointments in the league. The Buccaneers have a lousy defense to make sense of their struggles but the Falcons are 11th in yards per play defense to go along with nearly being the league s best offense as the Super Bowl hangover is proving real. While the Big Ten enjoyed a remarkable game between Ohio State and Penn State in the national spotlight two weeks ago, both teams couldn t handle the follow-up tests with upset losses last week to put the Big Ten in a precarious position. Wisconsin probably is the conference s only hope for a College Football Playoff team and even 13-0 for the Badgers might not be enough is some scenarios depending on how things shake out in the other major conferences. The Big XII picture will feature some clarity this week as while the league forced a championship game on its members this season it won t have remarkable games the final two weeks of the regular season as whatever rise the TCU/Oklahoma winner enjoys this week could fade by the end of the month. UCF sits alone as the clear Group of 5 leader with an 8-0 start and the nation s leading offense. Scott Frost seems likely to have his pick of several marquee openings this winter and it will be interesting to see if that discussion impacts his team s play down the stretch. Recall that Tom Herman going to Texas was a poorly kept secret last November and Houston wound up losing three late season AAC road games to cancel out a pair of top 5 wins. Teams like TCU, Miami, and Wisconsin might want to be careful what they wish for as far as making the College Football Playoff, taking a lesson from Washington. The Huskies have the nation s top defense and dominant numbers as they might be even better than last season s Pac-12 championship squad. Barring complete chaos Washington won t sniff the playoff this season as last season s mildly controversial inclusion left the Huskies with an uninspiring loss to Alabama that will sit in the minds of the committee. Teams that are not traditional blue bloods might be better off not making the bracket unless they feel like they truly have a shot to win it all. Best of Luck and on to this week s slate This version of the Green Sheet is prepared exclusively for www.vegasinsider.com UNAUTHORIZED DUPLICATION, REPRODUCTION, TRANSFER, OR PUBLIC POSTING IS STRICTLY PROHIBITED. VIOLATORS WILL FACE AN IMMEDIATE TERMINATION OF THEIR SUBSCRIPTION.
COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS ********************************************************************** RATING 5 ARIZONA (-23) over Oregon State RATING 4 BOSTON COLLEGE (+3) over NC State RATING 3 SOUTHERN MISS (-10½) over Rice RATING 2 UL-LAFAYETTE (+17½) over Mississippi RATING 2 TEXAS SAN ANTONIO (-7) over Uab RATING 1 GEORGIA TECH (+3) over Virginia Tech RATING 1 DUKE (-1½) over Army ********************************************************************** ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE Home teams listed in CAPS, all lines are obviously subject to change TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2017 MIAMI, OH (-5) Akron 6:30 PM Hopes of being the MAC East champion ended last week for Miami, losing at Ohio Tuesday night despite posting 448 yards on one of the MAC s better defenses. The Redhawks need to win out to return to a bowl game, something they did last season after starting 0-6. Akron is tied with Ohio at 4-1 in the MAC East with the upcoming head-to-head game likely to determine the title. Akron blasted Miami 35-13 last season although the Zips only had 299 yards in that game. Gus Ragland could return for the Redhawks although Billy Bahl has shown improvement the past two weeks and Miami is a promising threat against a Zips squad that is posting just 3.5 yards per rush this season with Miami also having a better run defense. MIAMI, OH BY 7 BUFFALO (-10½) Bowling Green 6:30 PM The Bulls have been a competitive team but in MAC play they are just 1-4 despite a scoring differential of just -1. Bowling Green has allowed the second most points in the MAC this season but the Falcons have played much better in the last month of the season. This is a second straight Tuesday night road game for the Falcons who won the season finale between these teams last season. Laying points with the Bulls looks like a risk though Buffalo is 7-2 ATS on the season. BUFFALO BY 7 WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 8, 2017 WESTERN MICHIGAN (-21½) Kent State The Broncos won t repeat as MAC champions but in a transition season a bowl game is still possible with one more win. Playing without starting quarterback Jon Wassink the Broncos leaned on the ground game last week but saw a 14-point lead disappear in the fourth quarter. Freshman Reece Goddard completed just six passes last week but Kent State allows 5.4 yards per rush as Western Michigan won t need to throw often in this game. Kent State has allowed 92 points the past two weeks but last season the Flashes gave a commendable effort in this matchup losing by just 16 against the undefeated Broncos. Making a case for the Flashes isn t easy. WM BY 27 Toledo (-5½) OHIO If the current standings hold these teams will meet again in the MAC championship after the Rockets beat Northern Illinois last week, now the only 5-0 MAC team. Ohio upset Toledo last season with a 31-26 result at the Glass Bowl despite the Rockets posting 560 yards. Toledo has allowed just 16 points per game in conference play and the only loss on the season came in a competitive game with Miami, FL. Ohio could have a potential rushing edge in this matchup allowing only 3.6 yards per rush, though the Rockets faced an even better run defense last week and still won by 10 with strong production on offense. TOLEDO BY 4 Eastern Michigan (-1½) CENTRAL MICHIGAN 7:00 PM Central Michigan scored a big win over Western Michigan last week in a 4th quarter comeback. This could be a dangerous game back at home. Eastern Michigan finally snapped a tough-luck run with a blowout win last week and the Eagles need to win out to make a bowl game with this game perhaps the toughest on that path. Eastern Michigan won 26-21 last season to reach 6-6 in the season finale in Ypsilanti with dominant production edges to snap a four-game slide in this series. EASTERN MICHIGAN BY 4 THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 9, 2017 NORTHERN ILLINOIS (-31) Ball State Ball State has been outscored by an average score of 51-9 in MAC games in a disastrous injury-plagued season. Northern Illinois lost what was effectively the MAC West championship game last week but it has been a nice rebound season for the Huskies. Northern Illinois has one of the nation s best run defenses as the opportunities for Ball State and a very shaky quarterback situation will be limited. Northern Illinois posted 653 yards against the Cardinals last season despite a tight final score and with Toledo facing a tougher game Wednesday there could be some clear motivation for the Huskies thinking they are still in the race. NIU BY 35 APPALACHIAN STATE (-17½) Georgia Southern 6:30 PM The Mountaineers had displayed some red flags as a Sun Belt contender with several close games and last week they suffered a conference loss to most likely fall out of the Sun Belt race. Georgia Southern remains winless on the season and last week s loss will sting, playing close with Georgia State but surrendering the lead in the fourth quarter. Appalachian State won 34-10 last season in Statesboro holding the Panthers to only 159 yards but laying points with the Mountaineers looks like a big risk with none of the four SBC wins coming by more than 14 points. APP STATE BY 13 PITTSBURGH (-10) North Carolina 6:30 PM Both of these teams have had tough seasons following being Coastal contenders in recent years. Pittsburgh has won two in a row and at 4-5 this is a critical game to keep bowl hopes alive as the Panthers will be dogged in the final two games. It has been a disastrous season for North Carolina at 1-8 but five defeats have come by 12 or fewer points through a very difficult schedule overall. For an injury-plagued team the bye week could be helpful and a lot of the numbers paint these teams as pretty similar squads despite the contrasting records. The four meetings as division foes have all been decided by seven or fewer points. Despite the challenges this is a Tar Heels team that has gained experience and is playing hard. PITTSBURGH BY 7 FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 10, 2017 Temple (-2½) CINCINNATI Both of these teams picked up significant wins last week as the Bearcats won by a point at Tulane for the first conference win of the season. Temple scored a primetime upset over Navy. This game might effectively serve as a postseason elimination game as Temple plays UCF next week and despite being just 3-6 the Bearcats close the season with a pair of winnable games. Temple won 34-13 last season but the Bearcats are a much better rushing team in this matchup and this will be the most favorable matchup at home since the opening week in Cincinnati. CINCINNATI BY 4 Washington (-6½) STANFORD 9:30 PM This looked like a matchup that might decide the Pac-12 North title but Washington State beat Stanford last week. The Cardinal switched quarterbacks last week and was held below 200 total yards as Bryce Love was held in check. Washington features one of the very best run defenses in the NCAA allowing just 2.6 yards per rush as Stanford offense could have another difficult game. Washington hasn t played a difficult schedule as arguably the three toughest games of the season will be the next three with this being the final road game of the season. Last season Washington won 44-6 in this matchup but the Huskies lost 31-14 two years ago at Stanford. Being able to stop the run will put Stanford in a tough position this week and the Cardinal no longer has a great defense to lean on. UW BY 10 UNLV (-4) Byu 9:30 PM The Rebels backed up the big win over Fresno State with a win over Hawai i last week and at 4-5 a bowl bid is possible with this game the home finale in Las Vegas. After starting the season 0-8 ATS BYU has covered the past two weeks with the offense showing a bit more life, actually out-gaining Fresno State last week in the loss. These teams haven t played since 2014 and with the Rebels posting 5.7 yards per rush this season they will provide a difficult test for the BYU offense to keep up with. With hopes of a bowl breakthrough still alive UNLV should be sharp at home with the defense stepping up with only 39 points allowed the past two games. UNLV BY 10 SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 10, 2017 Michigan (NL) MARYLAND The scoring has gone up for Michigan behind sophomore quarterback Brandon Peters but he hasn t played a big role with only 19 completions, though avoiding interceptions. Michigan remains a strong rushing team and most noteworthy is Michigan s excellent run defense, allowing just 3.0 yards per rush though the resume for the Wolverines is completely void of quality wins. Maryland plays three Big Ten powers to close the season as bowl hopes are slim after last week s loss to Rutgers and now down to a walk-on quarterback, the team s fourth starter this season. The Terrapins have won outright three times as an underdog this season however Michigan won 59-3 last season in this matchup. Maryland had nearly 400 yards against Michigan last season despite the lopsided defeat. MICHIGAN BY 17 SOUTH CAROLINA (-7½) Florida The Gamecocks gave highly ranked Georgia a reasonably competitive game last week but the SEC East title is now out of reach. Florida had a disastrous debut under Randy Shannon and only playing 11 games this season means Florida has to win out to make the postseason. Florida won 20-7 in this matchup last season but a defense that was once expected to be great has allowed 28 points per game in SEC play. The Gators have allowed 4.6 yards per rush this season on pace to be the worst Gators run defense in many years and the Gamecocks should have a favorable opportunity to bounce back. Florida was a double-digit favorite in this matchup last season however and four of six wins for the Gamecocks have come narrowly this season. The Gators might be worth a look to bounce back if you re brave. SC BY 6
Virginia Tech (-3) GEORGIA TECH 11:20 AM The Hokies failed last week at Miami to fall out of the ACC title race and this will be a challenging game looking to regroup, on the road for a second straight week. A well regarded Hokies run defense allowed 6.3 yards per rush last week and fumbles proved costly on offense. Georgia Tech has dropped back-to-back games and at 4-4 the Yellow Jackets need this game knowing they still draw Georgia in one of the final three games. Georgia Tech beat Virginia Tech last season with over 300 rushing yards and off a disappointing loss with a blown lead, this situation might set-up favorably for the home underdog. GEORGIA TECH BY 3 Tulane (-5½) EAST CAROLINA These teams have featured two of the worst run defenses in the nation but that should help Tulane more than East Carolina as the Pirates simply don t pass often, outrageously passing 74 times in last week s loss at Houston. Tulane has lost by double-digits in the past three road games and last week s one-point defeat makes a rise to the postseason very unlikely with the Wave now just 3-6 with losses in four straight games. Tulane has just 20 points per game on the slide as ECU might be tough to out-pace. TULANE BY 3 NC State (-3) BOSTON COLLEGE The Wolfpack competed well last week but couldn t catch Clemson for the team s first ACC loss. Despite consecutive defeats NC State can still have its best season under Dave Doeren with three winnable games remaining. Boston College has won three in a row with three consecutive upsets including a primetime blowout win over Florida State ahead of last week s off week. The Eagles have featured a great pass rush and the marginal run defense numbers can be blamed in part on the schedule, taking on a few of the nation s top rushing teams already. Boston College won 21-14 last season in Raleigh and the scheduling set-up again could favor the Eagles for a minor upset that would clinch a bowl bid. BC BY 10 CENTRAL FLORIDA (NL) Connecticut UCF remains undefeated but they have failed against the spread the past three games as the line adjustment has caught up. The Knights are the nation s top offense but the defense is vulnerable and as the season goes on speculation about Scott Frost s future could harm to team, similar to how Houston had some late season inconsistency amidst Tom Herman rumors last season. Connecticut had a two-game winning streak in late October but has allowed 89 points in losses at home the last two weeks, now possibly without their QB. This was a tight game last season with even numbers and ultimately the price might be too high for the Knights. UCF BY 27 SYRACUSE (-1½) Wake Forest 2:00 PM These squads have matching 2-3 ACC records with similar scoring numbers as both are still short of bowl eligibility. Wake Forest wasn t as close as the final score appeared last week at Notre Dame and this will be a difficult second straight road game. Syracuse just missed in a chance to beat Clemson and Florida State in the same season, falling by three in Tallahassee last week. Wake Forest won 28-9 last season at home in this matchup but Syracuse could be poised for some matchup edges with a defense that has shown great improvement this season, holding the last four foes to 27 or fewer points despite a tough slate of ACC foes, with a much stronger run defense average in this matchup. SYRACUSE BY 4 PENN STATE (-30) Rutgers The season has been derailed for Penn State as back-to-back losses drops the Lions to third place in the Big Ten East as repeating as Big Ten champions will be a long shot. The Lions have won both Big Ten home games by convincing margins and Penn State won 39-0 in this matchup last season on the road. Rutgers has not impressed statistically but the Knights have won three of the last four games with steady defense while Giovanni Rescigno has provided competent quarterback play with the offense leaning on the rushing attack. If given the opportunity Penn State might look to pour it on for a homecoming win to get the season back on track, still likely headed towards 10 wins and major bowl consideration. PENN STATE BY 35 Duke (-1½) ARMY Army has quietly won five games in a row with none bigger than last week s shutout win at Air Force, out-gaining the Falcons 392-184 and winning without attempting a pass. Duke has dropped five games in a row but it has been through mostly competitive games in a grueling stretch of ACC games. The Blue Devils allow just 3.9 yards per rush for a very capable run defense and with two weeks to prepare for the option attack this should be a favorable opportunity to stay in the postseason hunt. DUKE BY 7 OHIO STATE (-15) Michigan State The Buckeyes appear to be out of the national title chase but the winner of this game is likely to win the Big Ten East. Michigan State got a huge win over Penn State last week with a lengthy weather delay perhaps helping the cause along with three big interceptions. Ohio State was a three-touchdown favorite in last season s one-point win in East Lansing and elite run defenses on both sides will be tested with Ohio State certainly offering more promise on the ground if the team can stay sharp emotionally after a wild two weeks. With matching 5-1 Big Ten records Ohio State has scored 150 more points than Michigan State but the MSU run defense is stingy. OHIO STATE BY 13 Indiana (-9) ILLINOIS This is a Big Ten basement battle with both squads 0-6 in conference play. An early 10-0 lead for Indiana was erased last week against Wisconsin as a challenging season continues for a team that has been competitive against top competition but not always for four quarters. Illinois has scored only 83 points in six conference games and the Hoosiers are still a threat to win out and make the postseason with favorable games remaining. Indiana certainly has far more potential despite the matching records but laying points with this team is a big risk given the consistent mistakes. INDIANA BY 7 Troy (-16) COASTAL CAROLINA 3:30 PM In its first FBS season Coastal Carolina nearly pulled off a historic upset last week at Arkansas. The Chanticleers had a 38-24 lead in the fourth quarter but surrendered the lead in the final minutes. Back to Sun Belt competition this will be a difficult matchup against one of the league contenders. Troy survived a tight game this season as there has been some inconsistency but a veteran quarterback and line lead the offense and the Trojans rate as one of the better run defenses in the nation. Strong passing teams have given Troy more trouble and this situation should be a more favorable with Troy yet to allow more than 24 points in any game. TROY BY 23 Middle Tennessee State (-14½) CHARLOTTE 1:00 PM Finally getting quarterback Brent Stockstill back Middle Tennessee State looked like the C-USA contender most expected to see this season in a 30-3 win last week. The Blue Raiders have lost the past three road games however and 1-8 Charlotte has played well the past two home games against two of the better teams in the conference, losing a close game with Marshall and upsetting UAB. This game was decided by just seven points last season in Murfreesboro but MTSU is now a different team. MTSU BY 17 AIR FORCE (-3) Wyoming 9:15 PM Wyoming has climbed back into MWC contention, and one of the nation s turnover margin leaders has covered in six straight games. Known for its offense last season, Wyoming has allowed only 17 points per game in conference play. Critical in this matchup is a run defense surrendering just 3.7 yards per carry in contrast with the Air Force run defense that has been gouged for 6.4 yards per carry, the worst average nationally by a wide margin. Air Force lost by nine at Wyoming early last season with turnovers playing a big role and the Cowboys have covered in eight straight meetings in this series, a run that may continue. WYOMING BY 4 NEVADA (-20½) San Jose State 3:00 PM Not many three-touchdown underdogs out-rush their opponents and still fail to cover but that was Nevada s fate at Boise State last week with three costly interceptions and a few missed scoring opportunities. The opportunity for a win is great this week as Nevada is a much stronger team than the 1-8 record represents. San Jose State continues to struggle with just 13 points per game in five MWC losses. Making matters worse is the nation s worst turnover margin at -21. Nevada lost 14-10 at San Jose State last season as this game won t be overlooked for the Wolf Pack. NEVADA BY 27 Texas Tech (-7) Baylor At AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas It took until November for Matt Rhule to get his first win at Baylor. The Bears now host Texas Tech in a pair of 1-5 Big XII teams. Texas Tech suffered a painful finish last week for a fourth straight setback and bowl hopes are slim having to face TCU and Texas in the final two games. The Red Raiders should have good opportunities this week against a struggling Bears offense but Texas Tech has allowed more points in Big XII play than Baylor has. The Red Raiders put up 54 in a convincing win in this matchup last season in a game where both teams topped 600 yards of offense. TEXAS TECH BY 3 KANSAS STATE (-1½) West Virginia Third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson sparked a comeback win over Kansas State last week as the Wildcats have won two in a row to stay alive in the postseason hunt. West Virginia knocked off Iowa State last week in a rare low scoring game. Will Grier has 30 touchdown passes this season but Kansas State looks likely to have a rushing edge in this matchup and will be a threat for a home win. The Mountaineers still only have two losses to remain a Big XII championship threat with a chance to play Oklahoma in the finale. Last season West Virginia won 17-16 despite a significant yardage edge but the Mountaineers haven t won in Manhattan since joining the Big XII and are 0-5 ATS in this series. K-STATE BY 7 OKLAHOMA (-7) Tcu 7:00 PM These teams are tied on top of the Big XII standings and could meet again in the conference championship. TCU has allowed just 82 points in Big XII play compared with Oklahoma allowing 52 points in last week s win. The Horned Frogs have the nation s best run defense and it showed last week holding a strong rushing attack from Texas to just nine net rushing yards. Oklahoma won by six at TCU last season and by one in 2015 in Norman with the past five meetings all decided by seven or fewer points. Baker Mayfield has emerged as a serious Heisman threat but he could face more pressure this week without much support on the ground and TCU has allowed a grand total of just 27 points in the past four games combined while already beating the other top passing teams in the conference. OU BY 4
Oklahoma State (-7) IOWA STATE The winner of this game will still be a threat to make it to the Big XII championship game, particularly if it is Iowa State. The Cyclones nearly rallied back last week to keep a great run going and Iowa State hasn t surrendered a touchdown on defense in the last 10 quarters in Ames. Another familiar also-ran season appears underway for Oklahoma State, falling just short in last week s big rivalry game. The Cowboys surprisingly rate as the superior run defense in this matchup but the passing game will be tested. ISU lost by 7 in Stillwater last season and by just four hosting the Cowboys in 2015 but OSU s still has great potential. OK ST BY 10 LOUISVILLE (-10½) Virginia After containing Georgia Tech s great rushing attack last week Virginia will face another great rushing team this week. Louisville has had a disappointing season but last week s bye week could help the team finish strong with the Cardinals currently in last place in the ACC Atlantic and short of bowl eligibility. Virginia picked up win #6 last week in a huge home game and this was a difficult matchup last season surrendering over 500 yards against the Cardinals despite a close final score. Louisville is still scoring 33 points in ACC play but Virginia might be able to keep up. LOUISVILLE BY 7 Notre Dame (-3) MIAMI, FL 7:00 PM The Irish suffered a few key injuries last week that could come into play with Brandon Wimbush and Josh Adams coming out of last week s win over Wake Forest. The winner of this game will remain a serious College Football Playoff contender after Miami delivered in its big ACC Coastal matchup last week. Miami dominated a very good run defense last week and while the Hurricanes have a formidable rushing attack, Notre Dame is gaining 7.0 yards per rush to pace the nation. Notre Dame won 30-27 last season with clear edges but Miami is still being overlooked as a serious threat with home underdog pricing despite the perfect record. NOTRE DAME BY 1 NAVY (NL) Smu Navy fell to 3-3 in league play last week with a Thursday night loss at Temple with Zach Abey a question this week. SMU gave undefeated UCF a close game last week falling just short. The Mustangs already have six wins and will now hit the road following a big homecoming test. Navy remains one of the nation s better rushing teams and the defensive numbers and scoring numbers are similar in ACC play. Navy won with 75 points at SMU last season as this is a game that should be circled for a Mustangs squad that is very capable. This is Navy s final home game but the Notre Dame game is also up next for the Midshipmen for a tricky spot on the schedule. SMU BY 3 Washington State (-1) UTAH 4:30 PM Washington State delivered a big win hosting Stanford last week to stay alive in the Pac-12 race with the finale with rival Washington waiting. Utah benefitted from Josh Rosen sitting out as the Utes crushed UCLA in primetime on Friday night. That win snapped a four-game slide for the Utes and keeps bowl hopes alive in a difficult November schedule. These teams haven t played since a one-point Cougars win in Salt Lake City in 2014 and despite the general perceptions Washington State is the much better defensive team. The Cougars have lost badly in the past two road games however to offer some concern. WASHINGTON STATE BY 7 NORTHWESTERN (-6) Purdue The Wildcats are bowl eligible after back-to-back overtime wins, now riding a four-game winning streak after a 2-3 start to the season. Now a home favorite this could be a challenging game. Purdue returned to the win column last week to shake off three painful one-score losses in a row. The Boilermakers have allowed just over 16 points per game over the last five Big Ten games as Jeff Brohm has turned around this squad dramatically despite still being just 4-5. A bowl bid hangs in the balance the next three weeks with this game a great opportunity as Purdue is the much better rushing team in a battle of formidable run defenses. NORTHWESTERN BY 2 MISSISSIPPI (-17½) UL-Lafayette As Arkansas and Mississippi State proved last week a November nonconference game against a much lesser foe can be a great challenge. This could be an especially dangerous game for an Ole Miss squad that isn t eligible for the postseason and enters this game off two-straight dramatic finishes, scoring with five seconds to go to beat Kentucky on the road last week. UL-Lafayette has won three of its last four games in Sun Belt play and competed reasonably well earlier this season at Texas A&M, losing by 24 but leading at halftime. The Ragin Cajuns lost by just 14 at Georgia last season in a similar scheduling spot, and Mississippi has allowed 5.6 yards per rush as both teams should be able to put up points. OLE MISS BY 7 MINNESOTA (-2½) Nebraska 1-5 in Big Ten play with only a narrow win over Illinois P.J. Fleck had more wins vs. the Big Ten last season at Western Michigan. Three conference losses have been in single-score games and back at home after an ugly loss this is a critical game for bowl hopes on both sides for a pair of 4-5 squads. Nebraska won 24-17 in Lincoln last season in an even game. Both programs known for rushing success have gained just 3.8 yards per carry this season but Nebraska s defense has been better outside of the games against the elite teams in the conference. NEBRASKA BY 3 Alabama (-14½) MISSISSIPPI STATE The Crimson Tide could have added more points last week but the offense struggled against a marginal LSU defense with only 299 net yards. Despite the top ranking Alabama has only two road wins all season and the final two road games will be the most difficult of the season. At 7-2 Mississippi State survived a flat spot last week. Georgia and Auburn blasted the Bulldogs but both of those games were on the road. Mississippi State has topped 10 points just once in the last nine meetings in this series and the Tide should be sharp with plenty of things to work on after last week s limited output on offense. Alabama had 615 yards against the Bulldogs last season and a statement win could be in the works with a Tide resume that absolutely deserves some scrutiny in a weak SEC West. ALABAMA BY 21 Florida Atlantic (-4½) LOUISIANA TECH The Owls had a memorable finish last week, taking a late safety to lose ATS on Friday night while securing a 5-0 start in C-USA play. Louisiana Tech has been one of the top teams in the conference in recent years but this has been down season for the Bulldogs, though with three separate one-point losses this season there has been some tough fortune. An Owls rushing attack posting 6.1 yards per carry will face a defense allowing more than 5.0 yards per carry. Louisiana Tech has lost at home three times this season as Ruston hasn t carried the home field edge of past seasons. FAU BY 7 Southern Miss (-10½) RICE Southern Miss (5-4) has struggled the past two weeks, falling to UAB two weeks ago and Tennessee 24-10 last Saturday. QB Keon Howard struggled against the Vols and was replaced by backup Kwadra Griggs who scored the Golden Eagles only touchdown. Howard finished 7 for 22 passing for just 100 yards and ran the ball 10 times for 29 yards. Penalties really hurt Southern Miss; the Golden Eagles were flagged 14 times for 120 yards. The Owls lost their seventh-straight game last week, getting blown out by UAB 52-21 on the road. QB Miklo Smalls finished with 99 yards rushing off 10 carries and was 14-for-22 passing for 227 yards. While Rice is hosting this matchup, it will likely be a good opportunity for Southern Miss to break its two-game slump while still alive in the C-USA West. SO MISS BY 20 Usc (-13½) COLORADO 3:00 PM USC earned an impressive 49-35 win over No. 22 Arizona (6-3) last week in Los Angeles. The Trojans survived a fourth-quarter rally from the Wildcats to take sole command of first place in the Pac 12-South. QB Sam Darnold finished 20 of 26 passing with 311 yards, throwing one touchdown and an interception. RB Ronald Jones II had an outstanding performance, rushing for 197 yards on 27 carries with three TDs. The Trojans have won two straight since the lopsided loss to Notre Dame on Oct. 21. Colorado fell 41-30 at Arizona State last Saturday. Despite the loss, QB Steven Montez shined, totaling 345 yards through the air. The Buffaloes defense could not slow down Arizona State s rushing attack. The Sun Devils racked up 583 yards on the ground as Jones could have another big day. USC BY 17 WISCONSIN (-12) Iowa The Hawkeyes (6-3) certainly grabbed the headlines on Saturday after blowing past Ohio State 55-24 in Iowa City. Iowa has won two straight and are coming into this matchup with No. 9 Wisconsin with a head of steam. In the upset of Ohio State, QB Nate Stanley had 226 yards passing with five touchdowns. On defense, Josh Jackson had three interceptions and the Hawkeyes picked off Buckeye QB J.T. Barrett four times, including one picksix. After a slow start, Wisconsin (9-0) rolled to a 45-17 win at Indiana. RB Jonathan Taylor returned from an ankle injury to rush for 183 yards and a TD. If Wisconsin can take down Iowa in Madison this week, the Badgers will clinch the Big Ten West title and setup another trip to the conference championship game in Indianapolis. WISCONSIN BY 10 Georgia (-2½) AUBURN Georgia (9-0) climbed to No. 1 in the polls with a 24-10 win over South Carolina (6-3) in Athens on Saturday. QB Jake Fromm tossed two touchdown passes to keep the Bulldogs rolling. RB Nick Chubb added 102 yards on the ground off 20 carries. With the win, Georgia clinched a spot in the SEC championship game. Coach Kirby Smart wants to keep the focus on the next opponent and the Bulldogs will likely face a challenge in Auburn (7-2). The Tigers cruised past Texas A&M 42-27 on Saturday. QB Jarrett Stidham had three touchdown passes and totaled 268 yards through the air. RB Kerryon Johnson had 145 yards rushing as the Tigers poured it on in the second half. The numbers aren t far apart for these teams and if Auburn wins out they ll face Georgia in the SEC championship. AUBURN BY 3 MISSOURI (-11) Tennessee 6:30 PM Tennessee (4-5) snapped a frustrating four-game losing streak with a 24-10 win against Southern Miss despite totaling only 210 yards. The Vols played well defensively and took advantage of 14 Southern Miss penalties in the win. Tennessee has not thrown a touchdown pass in its last 22 quarters and Butch Jones is still likely on his way out. Missouri, after losing five in a row, improved to 4-5 by pounding struggling Florida 45-16 in Columbia. The Tigers totaled 227 rushing yards and QB Drew Lock threw for 228 yards and three TDs. While Lock s potential is there in the passing game the ground game could win this game for Missouri. MISSOURI BY 14
TEXAS A&M (-19) New Mexico New Mexico s losing skid continued as the Lobos were dealt their fourthstraight setback, falling 24-10 to Utah State at home. During the losing slide, New Mexico has struggled offensively. Against Utah State, the Lobos had four turnovers, but finally scored a touchdown, their first in almost nine quarters. It won t get much easier this week when the Lobos travel to Texas A&M. The Aggies fell to Auburn 42-27 last Saturday. Texas A&M s struggles this season have put pressure on coach Kevin Sumlin, but this Saturday s matchup could be a chance for the Aggies to rebound. Redshirt freshman Nick Starkel will start for the Aggies and while his ceiling is lower than Kellen Mond s and the Lobos could have a rushing edge. TEXAS A&M BY 13 UCLA (NL) Arizona State 8:30 PM The Sun Devils reached a program milestone last Saturday, topping Colorado 41-30 for their 600th victory. Arizona State was led by RB Demario Richard who had 141 yards rushing in the fourth quarter, including an 80- yard burst, as the Sun Devils outscored the Buffs 24-3 in the final quarter. UCLA was pounded by Utah on the road, falling 45-17 Friday night. UCLA was without star QB Josh Rosen who suffered a concussion the previous week against Washington. With Rosen sidelined, the Bruins amassed only 249 total yards with redshirt freshman Devon Modster replacing Rosen. To make matters worse, Darren Andrews, UCLA s leading receiver, left the game with an apparent knee injury in the fourth quarter. ASU BY 3 VANDERBILT (-3) Kentucky 3:00 PM Kentucky fell to Ole Miss on Saturday 37-34 in Lexington. RB Benny Snell paced the Wildcats with three rushing touchdowns. Kentucky has the SEC s worst pass defense and it showed as Ole Miss QB Jordan Ta amu burned the Wildcats most of the game. This week, Kentucky will have a chance to regroup against Vanderbilt. The Wildcats have not defeated the Commodores in Nashville since 2009. Vanderbilt after dropping five straight games enjoyed a 31-17 win over Western Kentucky last week. QB Kyle Shurmur fired two touchdown passes as the Commodores never trailed in the contest. Vanderbilt is still in the hunt for a bowl berth. VANDY BY 7 Arkansas State (-11½) SOUTH ALABAMA 4:00 PM Arkansas State had a bye last week after knocking off New Mexico State 37-21 on Oct. 28. The Red Wolves are rolling, coming into this clash having won four-straight games. QB Justice Hansen had tossed 25 TD passes and just seven interceptions in his junior season. South Alabama lost at home 19-14 to UL-Lafayette on Saturday in Mobile. QB Cole Garvin passed for 274 yards and two scores but also threw two interceptions in the tight loss. The Jaguars were competitive in a 17-7 loss in Jonesboro last season keeping the Red Wolves below 300 total yards. ARKANSAS STATE BY 7 Georgia State (-5½) TEXAS STATE 3:00 PM After losing its first two games, Georgia State has won five of six and improved to 5-3 rallying to defeat winless Georgia Southern last week. Texas State s dismal season continued with a 45-35 loss to New Mexico State last week at home. The 2-7 Bobcats were outscored 28-14 in the second half though QB Damian Williams had perhaps his best game of the season. The senior completed 31 of 47 passes for 321 yards and two touchdowns. The Panthers have had a great road track record but this could be a dangerous spot on the road again in a ninth game in nine weeks. GA ST BY 3 NORTH TEXAS (-23½) Utep 4:00 PM UTEP (0-9) saw its dreadful season continue with a 30-3 setback at Middle Tennessee on Saturday. A third-quarter field goal was all the Miners offense could muster in the 27-point road loss, finishing with just 137 total yards. The chances of the Miners finally getting their first win of the season won t be great this week when they travel to 6-3 North Texas. Since a humbling 69-31 loss to FAU on Oct. 21, North Texas has won two straight, including last week s 24-23 victory over Louisiana Tech. North Texas clinches a spot in the C-USA championship with a win this week in a revenge spot. UNT BY 27 TEXAS (-33) Kansas 5:00 PM Since posting a win over Southeast Missouri State in the season opener, Kansas (1-8) has not tasted victory. The Jayhawks couldn t even put up a strong effort against winless Baylor last Saturday, falling 38-9 in Lawrence. The Kansas defense allowed 445 total yards and made freshman Charlie Brewer to look like a star. It was the third time in four games the Jayhawks didn t score a touchdown. Texas was held to nine yards rushing at TCU with Sam Ehlinger unable to return. Longhorns are still fighting to become bowl eligible but even in a revenge spot, bigger games are ahead for a team averaging only 23 points in Big XII play. TEXAS BY 28 MARSHALL (NL) Western Kentucky 5:30 PM It s been an up and down season for Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers dropped to 5-4 with a 31-17 loss to Vanderbilt last week. WKU played without injured TE Deon Yelder, one of the team s leading offensive weapons. QB Mike White was sacked five times and left the game late as his status is unclear at this point. Marshall has fallen back to earth with consecutive losses to surrender division title hopes. The Herd s defense couldn t contain the run despite allowing just 3.6 yards per carry on the season. Marshall owns a strong home track record and should have a significant rushing edge in this matchup looking to avenge a 60-6 2016 loss. MARSHALL BY 14 FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (-10) Old Dominion After scoring 38 points in a loss to North Texas the previous week, Old Dominion scored just 6 against Charlotte but it was enough to lift the Monarchs to a shutout last week in Norfolk. Nick Rice, a freshman kicker, scored the game s only points. Defensively, the Monarchs held the 49ers to eight first downs and controlled the ball for nearly 40 minutes on offense. Florida International snuck past UT-San Antonio 14-7 to win its third consecutive contest. Saturday s home win was an important one for the Golden Panthers who clinched a bowl berth for just the third time in the program s 16-year history. This could be a dangerous game with a potential division title deciding game next week at FAU. FIU BY 7 TEXAS SAN ANTONIO (-7) Uab UAB became bowl eligible after trouncing Rice 52-21 last Saturday. The Blazers held a commanding 42-7 lead at halftime. Spencer Brown is one of the nation s leading freshman running backs and has already surpassed 1,000 yards this season. UT-San Antonio (5-3) is coming off a frustrating 14-7 setback to 6-2 Florida International. QB Dalton Sturm tried to engineer a late-game rally, but it fell short. A win for the Roadrunners at home will make them bowl eligible and this should be a favorable opportunity with the numbers painting significant edges in the ground game. UTSA BY 14 CLEMSON (-17) Florida State The Seminoles survived to top Syracuse 27-24 on Saturday in Tallahassee. It was Florida State s first home win of the season. RB Cam Akers led the way with 199 yards on 22 carries and two scores. Clemson held off NC State for a 38-31 win on Saturday at Raleigh. QB Kelly Bryant ran for 88 yards and scored two touchdowns to keep the Tigers on top of the ACC Atlantic with this the team s final ACC game. This game has been the biggest of the ACC season in recent years but that isn t the case this year. The nation s longest bowl streak will end unless FSU gets the upset but Clemson has plenty at stake this week as well looking to seal the Atlantic title. CLEMSON BY 21 LSU (-17½) Arkansas Arkansas has been hanging by a thread the past two weeks, but the Razorbacks have tasted victory each time. On Saturday, Arkansas rallied from a two-touchdown deficit in the fourth quarter to avoid a stunning upset, against Coastal Carolina 39-38. It was the second week in a row the Razorbacks won by one point. T.J. Hammonds and Cole Kelley provided two late TDs to avoid a shocking defeat in Fayetteville. No. 19 LSU put forth the effort, but couldn t surpass then top-ranked Alabama, falling 24-10 on the road with fairly even statistics though with the outcome never seriously in question for the Tide. Arkansas defense has not held an opponent to under 30 points since defeating New Mexico State 42-24 on Sept. 30. LSU BY 21 ARIZONA (-23) Oregon State 9:00 PM A miserable season for Oregon State continued on Saturday as the 1-8 Beavers fell 37-23 at Cal. The Beavers lost two key players on defense in the second half after they were ejected for targeting. Oregon State s defense is improving, but still has a long ways to go. Arizona (6-3) couldn t keep up with No. 17 USC on the road, falling 49-35 in a shootout. QB Khalil Tate continued to show his explosiveness, rallying the Wildcats with four touchdowns in an 11-minute span late in the contest. Tate accounted for 307 total yards, once again stifling opponents with his arm and feet. Coming back to Tuscon for the season s final home game could provide a boost with revenge motivation as well after losing 42-17 in Corvallis late last season. Arizona won 44-7 in the last home meeting in 2015. ARIZONA BY 35 Boise State (-5½) COLORADO STATE 9:30 PM Boise State knocked off Utah State 41-14 on Oct. 28 and duplicated that score in Saturday s home win over 1-8 Nevada. It was the fifth-straight win for the Broncos as the only 5-0 MWC team. QB Brett Rypien threw two touchdown passes while completing 20 of 27 attempts for 258 yards. If the Broncos can win two of their final three games, they will have a shot to win their first Mountain West title in three years. Colorado State should provide a formidable challenge. The Rams pushed 6-3 Wyoming before falling 16-13 Saturday night in snowy Laramie. Dalyn Dawkins rushed for 154 yards against the Cowboys and has totaled 1,050 this season. Colorado State lost by just five at Boise last season and is the far superior rushing offense but the Broncos have a lot at stake to keep a perfect run going. BOISE BY 7 Fresno State (-10) HAWAI I 11:00 PM Fresno State held off 2-8 BYU for a 20-13 win on Saturday at home. The Bulldogs bounced back from a 10-point upset to UNLV on Oct. 28. RB Jordan Mims had two rushing TDs and QB Marcus McMaryion completed 14 passes for 174 yards, doing just enough to preserve the win. Fresno State is still in the hunt for the Mountain West title and would like to keep those fortunes alive against 3-6 Hawai i. The Rainbow Warriors couldn t surpass 4-5 UNLV on Saturday, falling 31-23 in Las Vegas. RB Diocemy Saint Juste rushed for 111 yards on 20 carries and scored once. Hawaii collected 400 yards on offense, including a staggering 181 in the fourth quarter but it wasn t enough and on the closing line it made for an eighth consecutive ATS defeat. Fresno State was a home underdog last season in a 14-13 loss against surging Warriors team as fortunes have changed. Fresno State has difficult games remaining as this team could slide in November. FRESNO BY 7