Overview of tuna fisheries in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean, including economic conditions 2015 (WCPFC-SC12-2016/GN WP-1) Peter Williams1 and Peter Terawasi2 Co-presented by Dr Chris Reid Twelfth Regular Session of the Scientific Committee (SC 12) 3-11 August 2016 Bali, Indonesia ¹ Pacific Community (SPC), Oceanic Fisheries Programme (OFP), Noumea, New Caledonia 2 Pacific Islands Forum Fisheries Agency (FFA), Honiara, Solomon Islands
WCP-CA Tuna Catch by gear Highlighting 2015 catches 3,200,000 PURSE SEINE 2,800,000 OTHER POLE-AND-LINE LONGLINE 2,000,000 1,600,000 1,200,000 800,000 400,000 Total Catch 2,687,840 mt ( 3rd highest on record...) Purse seine 1,766,070 mt ( 66% ; 5th highest...) Longline 243,547 mt ( 9% ; lower than recent average) Pole-and-line 228,129 mt (8% ; stable c.f. 2014) Other (mainly ID/PH artisanal) (17%) 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 2015 Provisional estimates 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 0 1960 Catch (mt) 2,400,000
WCP-CA Tuna Catch by species Highlighting 2015 catches 3,200,000 SKIPJACK YELLOWFIN 2,800,000 BIGEYE ALBACORE 2,000,000 1,600,000 1,200,000 800,000 YFT : 605,963 mt (23% ; 2nd highest; near record) BET : 134,084 mt (5% ; lowest since 1996...) ALB : 120,0439 mt (4%; ) ALB (S Pac) : 68,594 mt ( lowest since 2011...) ALB (N Pac) : 80,695 mt 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 (68%; 3rd highest...) 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1984 SKJ : 1,827,750 mt 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 2015 Provisional estimates 1962 0 1986 400,000 1960 Catch (mt) 2,400,000
WCP-CA Tuna Catch Value by gear Highlighting 2015 values 2015 estimates (billions) Total Value $4.76 (down 18%) Purse seine $2.33 (down 28%) Longline $1.47 (down 11%) Pole-and-line $0.42 (down 6%) Other $0.55 (up 11%)
WCP-CA Tuna Catch Value by species Highlighting 2015 values 2015 estimates (billions) SKJ : $2.27 ( 24%) YFT : $1.53 ( 11% ) BET : $0.61 ( 20% ) ALB : $0.36 (stable )
WCP-CA Purse seine fishery Number of vessels (according to WCPFC CCM submissions) Distant-water 300 Number of vessels Domestic (Pacific Is.) 250 200 150 100 50 0 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 Also please refer to APPENDIX : Table A14 for active vessel numbers according to logbooks Figure A15 in response to SC11 recommendation on improving presentation of vessel capacity.
WCP-CA Purse seine fishery Annual catch (mt) by species and effort - Highlighting 2015 catches SKIPJACK 1,750,000 60,000 BIGEYE Effort (days) 1,400,000 48,000 1,050,000 36,000 700,000 24,000 350,000 12,000 TOTAL : 1,766,070 mt 5 ( th 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 2015 Provisional estimates 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 0 1974 0 1972 Catch (mt) 72,000 YELLOWFIN highest on record; mainly due to a drop in effort) 210,000mt lower than 2014 record) SKJ : 1,416,435 mt (80%; YFT : 298,847 mt (17% BET : 48,772 mt (5%; amongst lowest over last decade) lowest since 2007; low effort and CPUE) Estimated Effort (days) 2,100,000
WCP-CA Purse seine fishery Cumulative monthly effort (according to VMS data) 70,000 60,000 2009 2010 2011 40,000 2012 30,000 2013 2014 20,000 2015 2016 10,000 Dec Nov Oct Sep Aug Jul Jun May Apr Mar Feb 0 Jan VMS days 50,000
WCP-CA Purse seine fishery Trends in the proportion of EFFORT and CATCH by set type (major fleets) EFFORT 100% 80% Total - main PS fleets 60% 40% Unassociated 20% 0% 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 72% 2015 Catch = 59% 2015 Effort = CATCH Drifting FAD 100% 80% Total - main PS fleets 60% 40% 20% 0% 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 21% 2015 Catch = 40% 2015 Effort =
2010 (-/++) 2011 (++/o/+) 2012 (-/o/+) WCP-CA Purse seine fishery Distribution of effort 2013 (+) 2014 (-) 2015 (--) 2015 El Nino conditions... continuation of activity in east
WCP-CA Purse seine fishery Quarterly Distribution of catch by species Average 2000-2014 2015
WCP-CA Purse seine fishery Quarterly Distribution of catch by species Average 2000-2014 2015
WCP-CA Purse seine fishery Nominal CPUE 50 All set types CPUE 40 SKIPJACK 30 20 10 0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 40 15 All set types JAPAN KOREA CHINESE-TAIPEI USA 30 5 0 CPUE CPUE 10 20 10 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 0 YELLOWFIN Fre
WCP-CA Purse seine fishery Average Monthly SKJ (top) and YFT (bottom) CPUE, 2000-2015 45 2000-2014 40 2015 35 CPUE 30 25 Clearly higher than average 20 15 10 5 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 14 2000-2014 12 2015 Mostly at or below average CPUE 10 8 6 4 2 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
WCP-CA Purse seine fishery Total tuna CPUE estimates using VMS trip length 2005-2015
PS Bigeye tuna catch reduction WHY? (26% reduction in catch c.f. 2014) Clear reduction in effort during 2015 but unlike SKJ and YFT CPUE, the BET CPUE dropped. changes in availability in EASTERN AREAS related El Nino? For more information... See BET and YFT Indicators Paper SC12 SA WP-3 (Pilling et al., 2016)
Purse seine Economic Overview Skipjack Prices, Long term trends
Purse seine Economic Overview Bangkok Skipjack Prices - Recent movements FAD Closure FAD Closure Fleet tie up FAD Closure
Purse seine Economic Overview Skipjack prices and global food prices FAO food price index and Bangkok skipjack price index
Purse seine Economic Overview WCPFC purse seine fishery Catch, delivered value and price SKJ SKJ: Est. value in 2015 ~$1,765m Decline of $659m (27%) Catch 13% Price 16% YFT YFT: Est. value in 2015 ~$499m Decline of $196m (28%) Catch 15% Price 16%
Purse seine Economic Overview Total catch, delivered value and price 2015: US$2,331m Decrease of US$894m (28%) Lowest since 2009
Purse seine Economic Conditions Index of economic conditions in the purse seine fishery 2015 saw an improvement on 2014 to be significantly above long term average Driven by catch rates increasing to record levels and fishing costs declining as fuel prices fell dramatically. Despite continued price declines which resulted in real prices falling to their lowest levels since 2008.
WCP-CA Pole-and-line fishery Annual catch by species 450,000 ALBACORE 400,000 BIGEYE YELLOWFIN 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Slight increase 2014 (i.e. Indonesia) but amongst lowest since late 1960s... 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 TOTAL : 228,129 mt 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 2015 Provisional estimates 1976 1974 0 1972 Catch (mt) SKIPJACK
Pole and line Economic Overview Catch, delivered value of catch and composite price 2015: Decreased by US$52m to US$405m (11% decline) Catch: steady Average USD prices down with Yaizu price for skipjack caught in: Waters off Japan declined 36% to $1,942/mt ( 27% to 235/Kg) Waters south of Japan declined 5% to $2,141/mt ( 9% to 259/Kg)
WCP-CA Longline fishery Annual catch (mt) by species - Highlighting 2015 catches (prov.) 300,000 BIGEYE ALBACORE 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 TOTAL : 243,547 mt ( ) YFT : 97,289 mt (40% - amongst the highest BET : 63,986 mt (26% - lowest since 1996; ALB : 80,596 mt (33% - lowest since 2012) (+ small amount of SKJ) over past decade) provisional?? ) 2015 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 2015 Provisional estimates 1980 1975 1970 1965 1960 1955 0 1950 Catch (mt) YELLOWFIN
WCP-CA Longline fishery Annual TUNA SPECIES COMPOSITION 100% ALBACORE 90% BIGEYE 80% YELLOWFIN 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 0%
WCP-CA Longline fishery Quarterly Distribution of Catch by species 2000-2014 compared to 2015 2015 Average 2000-2014 2nd Quarter Yellowfin Albacore 2nd Quarter Bigeye
Economic Conditions Longline Yellowfin prices YFT Prices in JPY YFT Prices in USD Long term trends: Japan fresh imports JPY prices: Flat trend from 1997 to 2012 then upward trend to late 2015 driven by tight supplies and Yen depreciation. USD prices: Increases from 2003 to 2012 but falls to late 2015 as USD appreciated against the JPY. US imports Fresh imports prices increased to 2012 then broadly steady 2015 Japan YFT JPY prices mixed (declines in USD prices) Fresh imports 1,021/Kg 2% [$8.44/kg 11%]; Oceania fresh imports 1,355/Kg 3% [$11.19/kg, 10%]; Yaizu (fresh/frozen) 643/kg 6% [$5.31/kg 18%] US 2015 price similar to 2014
Economic Conditions Longline Bigeye prices Long term trends Japan fresh imports Similar to yellowfin: Increases in Yen price in recent years But declines in USD prices US Steady since 2011 BET Prices in JPY BET Prices in USD 2015 Japan Fresh import price 1051/Kg 5% [$8.68, 8%] Frozen prices from selected ports 937/kg 2% [$7.74, 14%] US 2015 fresh imports moderate increase of 4% to US$8.99/kg
Economic Conditions Longline Albacore prices Long term Upward trend with significant variation around trendline 2015 Prices higher with Thai frozen import price up 5%, Japan selected ports fresh up 6% and US imports fresh up 7%. Prices increases driven by supply shortages and high demand 2016 - First half Bangkok market prices (10kg and up) around US$3,000/mt.
Economic conditions - Longline Swordfish Prices US fresh & frozen import prices (f.a.s.) Upward trend in prices from 2000 when around $5.00/Kg to 2013 when $9.00/Kg has since trended down. 2015 weighted fresh and frozen (f.a.s.) $7.90/kg 8%. 2016 to June: $7.45/Kg, 7% compared to the same period last year. Japan selected ports (ex-vessel). 2015 891/Kg 3% [$8.31 10%]; 2016 to May: Prices up to 916/Kg (down marginally in USD terms to $8.11/Kg)
Economic Conditions - Longline Tuna catch, delivered value composite prices 2015:catch With Valuereasonably of catch US$1,466m flat the change in value primarily driven by changes in price Price increase Decrease of $176m from 2007-12 (11%) ondriven 2014 by depreciation of USD against JPY (JPY price flat) Subsequent pricetodecline 2013 in driven USD by appreciation against JPY (JPY price rise) and ALB $6m (2%) $243mfrom decline catchby offset price increase decline in proportion bigeye (higher unitdeclines value) and the associated in proportion of BET $107m (17%) toof$514m significant in both catch and increase price albacore (lower value) - decline in prices partially offset by catch increase YFT $63m (8%)unit to $707m
Longline Economic Conditions Index of economic conditions in the tropical longline fishery In 2015 conditions improved marginally compared with 2014. While the significant fall in fuel prices drove costs down this was largely offset by declines in the catch rate and fish price.
Longline Economic Conditions Index of economic conditions in the southern longline fishery 80 Prices (RHS) 175 Costs (RHS) 150 Economic Conditions (LHS) 60 CPUE (RHS) 40 125 20 100 0 75-20 50-40 25-60 0-80 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 Variations from 1997-2015 average (%) Index (average 1997-2015 = 100) 200 Economic conditions improved significantly in 2015, primarily driven by falling fuel costs with prices steady. However, persistent low catch rates continue to impact on economic conditions and if they continue the likelihood of economic conditions returning to levels higher than the reference period average remains low
WCP-CA Tuna Fisheries 2015 MAIN POINTS OF INTEREST 1. Reduced purse-seine effort Purse seine effort - 15% lower than in recent years 2. Clear reductions in several catch estimates (c.f. 2014) Total catch Purse seine catch Total Bigeye tuna catch PS Bigeye tuna catch LL Bigeye tuna catch - 2,687,840 mt - 1,766,070 mt - 134,084 mt - 48,772 mt - 63,986 mt ( ( ( ( ( 7%) 14%) 16%) 26%) 13%) 3. PS high SKJ catch rates & fishery concentrated in central/east Strong El Nino conditions sustained most of the catch east of 160ºE SKJ CPUE continues to climb -- highest on record for several fleets Increased fishing efficiency and/or increased abundance? Environmental conditions conducive to fish being more available to gear? 4. Declines in catch values as catch and prices (except albacore) fall LONGLINE - US $ 1.5 billion (11% decrease on 2014) PURSE SEINE - US $ 2.3 billion (28% decline on 2014) Total - US$ 4.8 billion