Zions Bank Economic Overview Utah Manufacturers Association & Associated General Contractors Utah Finance and Economic Summit September 26, 2017
National Economic Conditions
Dow Breaks 22,000 The Trump Bump Dow Reaches New Heights Following U.S. Presidential Election Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Business Optimism Booms Post Election Source: Trading Economics, NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
Current Level of Consumer Confidence Remains High 130 120 110 Above 110 indicates economic prosperity 100 90 80 70 60 50 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Source: The Conference Board
Trumponomics Repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act Cut corporate and income taxes Increase spending on infrastructure and military Reduce government regulations Renegotiate trade deals But can they get it done?
156,000 Jobs Added in August 83 rd Consecutive Month of Growth Unemployment Near 16 Year Low 150,000 12.0% Thousands of Employees 145,000 140,000 135,000 130,000 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% Unemployment Rate 125,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 0.0% Total Nonfarm Employment Unemployment
National Employment Change Percent Change in National Employment by Industry: August 2016 to August 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining 8.8% Construction 3.2% Manufacturing 1.1% Trade, Trans., Utilities 1.5% Information -2.4% Financial Activity 1.8% Prof. & Bus. Serv. 3.0% Ed. & Health Serv. 2.1% Leisure & Hospitality 2.1% Other Services Government 0.0% 1.5% Total: 1.4% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
National Employment Change Total Change in Number of Jobs by Industry in Thousands: August 2016 to August 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining 58 Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government -67 8 138 108 149 88 214 323 476 602-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Wage Growth Stagnant 4.0% 3.5% August 2017 2.5% 3.0% 2007 2017 Average 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
68% Labor Force Participation Seeing Little Change 67% 66% 65% 64% August: 62.9% 63% 62% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Labor Force Participation Among Lowest Level in Almost 40 Years 68% 66% Mar 2000 67.3% 64% 62% 60% 58% Apr 1978 63.0% August 2017 62.9% 56% 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Baby Boomers Head for Retirement 68% 38% U.S. Participation Rate 67% 66% 65% 64% 63% 62% 61% 36% 34% 32% 30% 28% 26% 24% 22% Share of 55+ 60% 20% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 U.S. Participation Rate Age 55+ Share of Working Age Pop Source: Zions Bank Analysis of Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Long-Term Decline of the Teenage Workforce 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate Participation Rate Ages 16-19 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Gap Between Unemployment and Underemployment Narrows 18% 16% 14% 12% 7.1% 10% 8% 6% 4.2% 4% 2% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 U-6 (Underemployed) U-3 (Unemployment) Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
8 Long-Term Unemployment Drops Unemployed for more than 27 weeks Millions of Persons 6 4 2 July 2017: 1.8 m 0 1980 1983 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Numbers are rounded
Job Openings Hit All-Time High in July Level in Thousands 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Hires Openings Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Fewer Unemployed Workers Per Job Opening 7 6 5 4 3 July 2017 1.1 2 1 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unemployed/Openings Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Growth in Labor Productivity has Slowed Since Late 1990 s and Early 2000 s Percent Change from Quarter One Year Ago 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% -1.0% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Real output per hour Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Total Compensation $35.00 $30.00 $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $0.00 Employment Cost Index Components of Total Compensation $23.29 $4.32 $0.80 $1.53 $16.64 Q1 2004 18.6% 3.4% 6.6% $26.42 $4.93 $0.95 $1.87 $5.11 $0.96 $2.08 $18.67 $19.58 Q4 2007: Start of Great Recession $27.73 18.7% 18.4% 3.6% 7.1% 3.5% 7.5% Q1 2010: ACA Signed into Law Salary and Wages Health Insurance Retirement Other Benefits $33.12 $6.22 $1.34 $2.50 $23.06 71.4% 70.7% 70.6% 69.6% Q1 2017 18.8% 4.0% 7.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Producer Price Index Increased in August 5% 4% 3% August 2.4% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% Year-to-Year Change 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Inflation Continues to Underperform But is Moving Up 4.5% 4.0% U.S. Consumer Price Index Yearly Change Rate 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% July 1.7% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% Feb-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jun-17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Median Household Income Hits New High $60,000 $58,000 $56,000 $54,000 $52,000 $50,000 $48,000 In 2015 Dollars $59,039 $46,000 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Consumer Spending Drives Growth 6.0% 4.0% Q2 2017 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 Personal Consumption Fixed Investment Net Exports Inventories Government Real GDP Growth Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
The U.S. Dollar has Weakened Since the Start of 2017 140 Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Broad 130 120 110 100 90 80 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Index 1997 = 100 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Euro compared to U.S. Dollar $1.70 $1.60 $1.50 1.39 $1.40 $1.30 $1.20 $1.10 $1.00 $0.90 PARITY 1.06 $0.80 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
$1.80 $1.70 $1.60 $1.50 $1.40 $1.30 $1.20 $1.10 British Pound Dropped to New Low Following BrexitVote July 2014 $1.72 Brexit Vote $1.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sept. 2017 $1.32 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
U.S. Total Oil Rigs and Oil Prices 1,700 1,500 $120 $100 Oil Rig Count 1,300 1,100 900 700 $80 $60 $40 Oil Prices 500 $20 300 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 $0 US Oil Rigs Oil (WTI Crude) Sources: Baker Hughes and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Federal Funds Target Has Risen Four Times in the Last Decade 6 5 4 3 2 Federal Funds Target Rate = 1.25 1 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: U.S. Federal Reserve
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve September 2017 Fed Rate Projections
Markets Increasing Likelihood of Rate Increases
Explosion in the Federal Reserve s Balance Sheet $5.00T $4.50T $4.00T $3.50T $3.00T $2.50T $2.00T $1.50T $1.00T $0.50T Recession QE1 QE2 QE3 $0.00T 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Mortgage-Backed Securities U.S. Treasury Securities Federal Agency Debt Other Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Regional Economic Conditions
CA 0.7% OR 1.7% WA 1.8% NV 2.0% ID 1.8% AK 0.6% UT 2.0% AZ 1.7% Utah Population Fastest Growing in U.S. MT 1.0% WY -0.2% CO 1.7% NM 0.0% Percent Change: 2015 to 2016 U.S. Rate = 0.7% ND 0.1% SD 0.9% NE 0.7% TX 1.6% KS 0.3% 0.0% OK 0.4% MN 0.7% IA 0.4% MO 0.3% AR 0.3% WI 0.2% LA 0.3% IL -0.3% MS 0.0% MI 0.1% IN 0.3% TN 0.9% AL 0.2% OH 0.1% KY 0.3% WV -0.5% VT -0.2% PA -0.1% NC 1.1% SC 1.4% GA 1.1% VA 0.5% FL 1.8% NH 0.4% NY 0.0% ME 0.2% DC 1.6% CT -0.2% DE 0.8% MD 0.4% MA 0.4% RI 0.1% NJ 0.1% 1.5% + 0.7% to 1.4% 0.2% to 0.6% 0.0% to 0.1% Loss HI 0.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Utah Population and Components of Change Total Population 3,600,000 3,300,000 3,000,000 2,700,000 2,400,000 2,100,000 1,800,000 1,500,000 1,200,000 900,000 600,000 300,000 0 3,051,217 25,412 34,997 90000 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0-10000 -20000 Components of Population Change 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population 2015 2017f 2018f Sources: U.S. Census Bureau; Data from 2014 on from State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group e = estimate, f = forecast
Utah Population Growth Rates By County 2015 to 2016 Box Elder 2.2% Tooele 3.1% Davis 1.9% Cache 2.2% Rich 1.0% Weber 1.7% Morgan 3.1% Summit Salt Lake 2.1% 1.5% Utah 3.0% Wasatch 4.7% Duchesne -2.1% Daggett -1.4% Uintah -3.7% State Average = 2.0% Juab 4.2% Carbon -0.2% 3.0%+ 1.8% to 2.9% 1.0% to 1.7% Millard 0.4% Beaver 1.9% Piute -2.5% Sanpete 2.1% Sevier 1.6% Wayne 0.0% Emery -1.3% Grand 0.9% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Iron 3.4% Washington 3.1% Kane 3.0% Garfield -0.1% San Juan 7.6% Source: U.S. Census Bureau
Utah has the 4 th highest employment growth in the nation CA 1.6% OR 2.3% WA 2.1% Percent Change in Employment for States: August 2016 to August 2017 U.S. Rate = 1.4% NV 3.0% AK 0.1% ID 2.2% UT 2.6% AZ 1.3% MT 1.6% WY -0.9% HI 0.6% CO 1.8% NM 1.1% ND 1.3% SD 0.8% NE 1.3% KS -0.6% TX 2.5% OK 1.2% MN 1.5% IA 1.1% MO 1.8% AR 1.9% WI 0.96 LA 1.2% IL 0.4% MS 0.6% MI 1.4% IN 1.0% TN 1.8% AL 1.4% OH 1.0% KY 1.6% GA 2.7% VT 0.6% WV 0.1% PA 1.0% NC 1.6% SC 1.7% VA 1.5% FL 2.6% NH 2.1% NY 1.4% ME 1.0% DC 1.7% CT 0.4% DE 0.6% MD 2.3% MA 1.6% RI 1.9% NJ 0.9% 2.0% + 1.6% to 1.9% 1.0% to 1.5% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Note: Seasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Utah Total Employment at New Highs Thousands of Employees 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 Loss of 92,000 jobs from 2007-2009 Gain of 299,000 jobs from low in 2009 800 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm seasonally adjusted Note: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total Nonfarm Employment
Utah Industries Seeing Growth Percent Change in Utah Employment by Industry: August 2016 to August 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government -8.0% -5.0% Total: 2.8% 6.2% 2.5% 2.4% 2.2% 5.0% 3.3% 2.0% 3.5% 2.0% -13% -8% -3% 2% 7% 12% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Utah Industries Seeing Growth Total Change in Utah Employment by Industry: August 2016 to August 2017 Ntl. Res. & Mining Construction Manufacturing Trade, Trans., Utilities Information-1,900 Financial Activity Prof. & Bus. Serv. Ed. & Health Serv. Leisure & Hospitality Other Services Government -700 5,900 3,100 6,500 1,800 6,100 2,900 1,400 4,500 10,300 Total: 39,900-3,000-1,000 1,000 3,000 5,000 7,000 9,000 11,000 Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Utah Employment Change Rates By County August 2016 to August 2017 State Rate = 2.8% Box Elder 2.4% Tooele 1.2% Juab 1.1% Cache 2.7% Rich -1.4% Weber 2.1% Da1is 4.0% Morgan 3.0% Salt Lake 2.7% Utah 5.7% Summit 2.2% Wasatch 3.5% Duchesne 3.3% Carbon -1.3% Daggett -1.8% Uintah 0.6% 5.0% + 3.3% to 4.9% 1.0% to 3.2% Millard 2.1% Beaver 3.0% Piute 4.2% Sanpete 1.3% Sevier 2.7% Emery -3.3% Wayne 1.7% Grand 2.7% 0.0% to 0.9% Loss Iron 4.6% Garfield 2.6% San Juan 1.7% Washington 4.9% Kane 3.2% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services; Not seasonally adjusted
Utah Unemployment 12 th lowest in the Nation OR 4.1% CA 5.1% WA 4.6% NV 4.9% ID 2.9% UT 3.5% AZ 5.0% MT 3.9% WY 4.0% CO 2.4% NM 6.3% August 2017 U.S. Rate = 4.4% ND 2.3% SD 3.3% NE 2.8% KS 3.9% OK 4.5% MN 3.8% IA 3.3% MO 4.0% AR 3.5% WI 3.4% IL 5.0% MS 5.3% MI 3.9% IN 3.5% TN 3.3% AL 4.2% OH 5.4% KY 5.4% GA 4.7% WV 5.0% VT 3.0% PA 4.9% NC 4.1% SC 4.0% VA 3.8% NH 2.7% NY 4.8% ME 3.8% DC 6.4% CT 4.8% DE 4.9% MD 3.9% MA 4.2% RI 4.3% NJ 4.5% 6.0% + 5.5% to 5.9% AK 7.2% TX 4.2% LA 5.2% FL 4.0% 4.8% to 5.4% 4.0% to 4.7% 3.9% or less HI 2.6% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Utah Unemployment Rates By County August 2017 State Rate = 3.5% Box Elder 3.4% Tooele 3.8% Juab 3.6% Cache 2.9% Weber 3.8% Morgan Davis 3.2% 3.1% Salt Lake 3.2% Utah 3.0% Rich 3.3% Summit 3.2% Wasatch 3.5% Duchesne 5.6% Carbon 5.3% Daggett 5.9% Uintah 6.0% 7.0% + 6.0% to 6.9% 4.0% to 5.9% Millard 3.5% Beaver 3.8% Piute 5.6% Sanpete 4.1% Sevier 4.1% Emery 5.6% Grand 5.4% Wayne 7.8% 3.2% to 3.9% 3.1% or lower Iron 4.1% Garfield 7.6% San Juan 7.1% Washington 3.6% Kane 3.5% Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services
Utah, Idaho, and Washington Tied for Highest Personal Income Growth in the Country Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis CA 4.8% WA 4.9% OR 3.8% NV 4.8% AK 1.6% Percent Change in Personal Income : 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 U.S. = 3.7%; UT = 4.9% ID = 4.9% ID 4.9% UT 4.9% AZ 3.8% MT 3.7% WY -0.5% HI 3.0% CO 4.4% NM 2.2% ND 1.0% SD 2.5% NE 1.2% KS 2.5% TX 3.2% OK 1.2% MN 3.6% IA 1.9% MO 3.5% AR 3.1% WI 3.1% LA 3.0% IL 2.2% MS 2.4% MI 4.4% IN 4.0% TN 4.4% AL 3.2% 4.0% or more 3.6% to 3.9% 2.0% to 3.5% 0.0% to 1.9% Decrease OH 3.6% 3.8 2.6% WV 1.9% GA 3.8% VT 1.6% PA 3.9 % NC 4.4% SC 4.6% VA 4.4% FL 4.6% NH 3.1% NY 3.0% ME 2.9% DC 4.4% CT 2.5% DE 3.6% MD 4.9% MA 3.8% RI 3.0% NJ 3.5%
Utah Poverty Rate 7 th Lowest in the Nation CA 14.3% WA 11.3% OR 13.3% NV 13.8% AK 9.9% ID 14.4% UT 10.1% AZ 16.3% 2016 U.S. Rate = 14.0%, Utah Rate = 10.1% MT 13.3% WY 11.3% HI 9.3% CO 11.0% NM 19.8% ND 10.6% SD 13.3% NE 11.4% KS 12.1% TX 15.6% OK 16.3% MN 9.9% IA 11.8% MO 14.0% AR 17.1% WI 11.8% LA 20.1% IL 13.0% MS 20.8% 18.1% + MI 15.0% IN 14.1% TN 15.8% AL 17.1% 15.1% to 18.0% 12.1% to 15.0% 10.1% to 12.0% OH 14.6% KY 18.5% WV 17.8% VT 11.9% PA 12.9% VA 11.0% NC 15.4% SC 15.3% GA 16.0% FL 14.6% NH 7.2% NY 14.6% ME 12.5% DC 18.6% CT 9.8% DE 11.6% MD 9.6% MA 10.4% RI 12.8% NJ 10.4% 10.0% or less Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Community Survey 1-year estimate
Consumer Sentiment on the Rise 130 120 110 Above 110 indicates economic prosperity 100 90 80 70 60 50 U.S. Consumer Confidence Index: 122.9 Zions Bank Utah Consumer Attitude Index: 115 May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Aug-13 Nov-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Sources: Conference Board and Cicero Group
Consumer Price Index Yearly Growth United States vs. Wasatch Front 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% United States CPI: +1.9% Zions Bank Wasatch Front CPI: +3.4% Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16 Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17 Source: U.S. CPI from National Bureau of Labor Statistics and Wasatch Front CPI from Cicero Group
Real Estate and Construction
Utah home values continue to rise $255,000 Utah July 2017 $252,600 $235,000 $215,000 $195,000 $175,000 $155,000 $135,000 U.S. July 2017 $200,700 $115,000 $95,000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 United States Utah Source: Zillow Research
1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 Utah Maintains Lower Percentage of Foreclosures than Nation Percentage of total homes in foreclosure process 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 U.S. Utah Source: Graphiq.com
Utah Residential Construction Activity Continues to Rise 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Forecast 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016e 2018f Single-Family Units Multifamily Total Source: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Group, Moody s Economy.com, and HIS Global Insight
Utah Value of New Residential Construction Increasing Millions of Dollars $8,000 $7,000 $6,000 $5,000 $4,000 $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 Forecast $0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016e 2018f Residential Nonresidential Renovations Total
Utah Economic Indicators 2015-2018f Population Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate Personal Income Home Prices Retail Sales 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f Sources: State of Utah Revenue Assumptions Working Group, Moody s Economy.com, IHS Global Insights e = estimate f = forecast
Economic Positives Strong consumer and business confidence Trumponomics pro growth agenda The Western US has: Strong population growth Strong employment growth Low unemployment Strong income growth Utah inflation is strong Economic Negatives National and international uncertainty Trumponomics success? Depressed business investment Unstable inflation outlook Skills mismatch Low productivity growth Overregulation from Washington
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