JEFF SAMARDZIJA V. CHICAGO CUBS BRIEF FOR THE CHICAGO CUBS TEAM 4
Table of Contents I. Introduction...1 II. III. IV. Performance and Failure to Meet Expectations...2 Recent Performance of the Chicago Cubs...4 Past Compensation...4 V. Player Comparisons...5 a. Jonathan Sanchez...5 b. Shaun Marcum...7 VI. Conclusion...10
I. Introduction This brief is submitted on behalf of the Chicago Cubs and concerns Jeff Samardzija s 2014 salary arbitration. This brief demonstrates that the Chicago Cubs offer of $4.7M is a fair representation of Samardzija s contributions to the team along with his value in comparison to other similarly situated starting pitchers. Samardzija, a 28 year-old right-handed pitcher, debuted for the Chicago Cubs in 2008. However, he did not make the Cubs roster full-time until 2011 and was not a full-time major league starter until 2012. As a result, he is now in his second offseason of arbitration eligibility. The Cubs paid Samardzija $2.64M in 2013 and are now offering him a salary of $4.7M for 2014, a substantial raise of $2.06M. Samardzija is requesting a salary of $5.1M for 2014. The midpoint between these two requests is $4.9M. The Cubs respectfully request that the arbitration panel find the appropriate salary to be below the midpoint of $4.9M. After making his major league debut in 2008 as a September callup, Samardzija spent three seasons moving between the Cubs minor league and major league teams. Unfortunately, since 2012 Samardzija s numbers have declined in his two full seasons as a starting pitcher. Running parallel to his declining statistical performance, the team s performance (both on the field and in the ticket office) during Samardzija s tenure has been remarkably bad, with the Cubs finishing at or near the bottom of the NL Central each season. Moreover, despite his limited major league contributions and the failure to live up to his expectations, the Cubs have generously compensated Samardzija throughout his entire career to date. Lastly, Samardzija had similar career and platform year statistics to Jonathan Sanchez and Shaun Marcum each of whom signed contracts in their second offseason of arbitration eligibility for less than the $4.9M midpoint in this case. 1!
II. Performance and Failure to Meet Expectations Drafted in the fifth round out of the University of Notre Dame after a high profile career in both football and baseball, Jeff Samardzija brought lofty expectations with him to the Chicago Cubs. Unfortunately, Samardzija has yet to fulfill those expectations. Between 2008 and 2010 Samardzija bounced back-and-forth between the Triple-A Iowa Cubs and the Chicago Cubs. 1 In 2011, Samardzija spent his first entire season on the major league roster, but only appeared as a reliever out of the Cubs bullpen. After finally being named to the Cubs starting rotation in 2012, Samardzija s numbers declined over the next two seasons. Table 1. Jeff Samardzija s Career Statistics 2 Year W-L ERA WHIP SO/9 BB/9 IP AVG. 2008 1-0 2.28 1.410 8.1 4.9 27.2.222 2009 1-3 7.53 1.760 5.5 3.9 34.2.317 2010 2-2 8.38 2.121 4.2 9.3 19.1.269 2011 8-4 2.97 1.295 8.9 5.1 88.0.197 2012 9-13 3.81 1.219 9.3 2.9 174.2.237 2013 8-13 4.34 1.348 9.0 3.3 213.2.255 TOTALS 29-35 4.19 1.355 8.6 3.8 558.0.254 After making his major league debut in 2008 at the age of 23, and posting an exceptionally low ERA of 2.28, albeit in only 27.2 innings as a reliever, Samardzija seemed well on his way to fulfilling the team s high expectations for him. 3 Over the next two seasons, in the same role, however, Samardzija s ERA increased. Ultimately, it took Samardzija a disappointing three additional seasons to break into the Cubs starting rotation. Once Samardzija finally made the starting rotation in 2012 he posted solid numbers with a 3.81 ERA good for 30 th among qualified NL starting pitchers in 2012. 4 Unfortunately, nearly 1 http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/samarje01.shtml 2 Id. 3 Id. 4 http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/year/2012/league/nl/order/false 2!
all of Samardzija s numbers declined in his platform season of 2013, including his ERA, WHIP, SO/9, BB/9, win total, and opponents batting average. During his first season as a starter in 2012 Samardzija posted an impressive 9.3 SO/9 rate, which was good enough to finish second among qualifying National League starting pitchers. 5 In 2013, however, Samardzija suffered an alarming decline as his SO/9 rate fell. At the same time, his BB/9 rate increased from 2.9 in 2012 to 3.3 in 2013. 6 Notably, Samardzija finished with 78 total walks in 2013 the second most of any pitcher in the NL. 7 A comparison of Samardzija s numbers as a starter versus his numbers as a reliever reveals that his move from the bullpen to the starting rotation has not been a successful transition. As a starting pitcher, Samardzija s ERA was.48 runs worse (4.32 to 3.84) than his ERA out of the bullpen. 8 Furthermore, opponents hit.249 against Samardzija as a starter in comparison to.226 against Samardzija out of the bullpen. 9 The most concerning statistical trend stemming from Samardzija s move from the bullpen to the starting rotation can be seen in his HR/9 rate. Samardzija allowed homeruns nearly twice as often (1.11 to.62) 10 as a starter than he previously allowed as a reliever. Overall, Jeff Samardzija took a step backward in his platform year of 2013. Despite showing flashes of potential early in his career, Jeff Samardzija has failed to progress toward his potential after four years with the Chicago Cubs. A player past his first offseason of arbitration eligibility is paid primarily based on his platform year performance. 11 Therefore, after assessing Samardzija s platform year the arbitration panel should award him a salary of $4.7M. 5 http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/samarje01.shtml! 6 Id. 7 Id. 8 http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=3254&position=p&season=0 9 Id. 10 Id. 11 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=19540! 3!
III. Recent Performance of the Chicago Cubs The Chicago Cubs have not made the playoffs since 2008; the year Jeff Samardzija made his major league debut. In fact, from 2008 through 2012, the Cubs finished each season with a worse record than the previous season. 12 The Cubs improved from 61-101 in 2012 to 66-96 in 2013 the second worst record in the NL and fourth worst in all of baseball. 13 Thus, in the two seasons with Samardzija in their starting rotation the Cubs are 70 games below.500 at 127-197. One negative consequence stemming from the Cubs poor on-field performance throughout Samardzija s career has been a steady decline in attendance, which has continued to drop each season since Samardzija s debut in 2008. 14 In fact, the Cubs experienced their lowest attendance numbers in 15 years in 2013. 15 IV. Past Compensation The Cubs have compensated Samardzija generously throughout his career, unlike the vast majority of young pitchers who make at or near the league minimum for the first several years of their careers. In 2007, Samardzija signed a deal with the Cubs for 5 years/$10m with club options for the 2012 and 2013 season, which could have increased the total value of the deal to $16.5M. 16 Thus, between 2007-2011 Samardzija made $12.3M, even though he was only with the Chicago Cubs full-time in 2011 and failed to pitch more than 100 major league innings in any season. Despite his failure to fulfill expectations, the Cubs generously re-signed Samardzija to a one-year deal for $2.64M before the 2012 season. 17 In 2013, after his first full year in the Cubs starting rotation, Samardzija and the Cubs avoided arbitration by agreeing to a similar 12 http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/chc/history/year_by_year_results.jsp 13 http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/group/9 14 http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/chc/attend.shtml 15 http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/id/20159/attendance-in-2013-lowest-in-last-15-years! 16 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=50175 17 Id. 4!
one-year $2.64M deal. 18 In total, Samardzija has already earned $17.58M in his career to date. Now, despite a decline in performance, the Cubs are offering Samardzija yet another significant raise of $2.06M to $4.7M. V. Player Comparisons Jeff Samardzija should receive a salary comparable to the salaries received by Jonathan Sanchez and Shaun Marcum in their respective second years of arbitration eligibility because the three pitchers share similar career statistics, similar high strikeout numbers, and most importantly similar platform year statistics. a. Jonathan Sanchez Samardzija should receive a salary similar to Jonathan Sanchez, because both pitchers entered their second offseason of arbitration eligibility with similar career statistics, similar platform year statistics, and similar high strikeout numbers. Additionally, in contrast to Samardzija, Sanchez s team achieved significant success during Sanchez s tenure, as the San Francisco Giants won the 2010 World Series. Sanchez settled on a $4.8M salary with the Giants in his second offseason of arbitration eligibility, below the $4.9M midpoint in the present case. 19 Table 2. Jonathan Sanchez s Career Statistics 2006-2010 20 Year W-L ERA WHIP SO/9 BB/9 IP AVG. 2006 3-1 4.95 1.550 7.4 5.2 40.0.247 2007 1-5 5.88 1.635 10.7 4.8 52.0.278 2008 9-12 5.01 1.449 8.9 4.3 158.0.251 2009 8-12 4.24 1.365 9.8 4.8 163.1.219 2010 13-9 3.07 1.231 9.5 4.5 193.1.201 Total 34-39 4.26 1.380 9.4 4.7 606.6.233 18 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=50175 19 http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanchjo01.shtml 20 http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7507&position=p 5!
Both Sanchez and Samardzija made their respective major league debuts at the age of 23. Nevertheless, Sanchez solidified his spot in the major leagues much quicker than Samardzija, as he earned spot in the Giants rotation at the age of 25 and threw a no-hitter at the age of 26. 21 Sanchez and Samardzija both relied heavily on strikeouts. Upon entering their respective second offseasons of arbitration eligibility, Sanchez had a higher SO/9 rate (9.4 to 8.6) in 46.6 innings more than Samardzija. 22 Sanchez also finished his platform year with nearly 100 career strikeouts more than Samardzija (634 to 536). 23 As of each pitcher s second offseason of arbitration eligibility, Sanchez had held opponents to a significantly lower batting average (.233 to.254). 24 Another key similarity between Sanchez and Samardzija was their ability to avoid major injuries. In addition to their comparable career numbers, each pitcher posted similar numbers in his respective platform season. In their platform seasons, Samardzija and Sanchez each started 33 games and finished with nearly identical HR/9 rates (1.1 to 1.0, respectively). 25 Both pitchers also suffered a similar slight decline of.3 in their SO/9 rates. Samardzija barely edged out Sanchez in strikeouts (214 to 205) and innings pitched (213.2 to 193.1). 26 More importantly, however, Sanchez finished his platform season with a significantly lower ERA (3.07 to 4.34) and WHIP (1.231 to 1.348). 27 Sanchez also held opponents to a much lower batting average (.201 to.255) while posting a better SO/9 rate (9.5 to 9.0). 28 21 http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/recap?gid=290710126&prov=ap 22 http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=7507&position=p; http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?player id=3254&position=p!! 23 Id. 24 Id. 25 Id. 26 Id. 27 Id.! 28 Id.! 6!
Notably, Sanchez posted a career-best 3.07 ERA to go along with career highs in innings pitched (193.1) and strikeouts (205) in his platform season. 29 The Giants rewarded Sanchez for his strong platform year with a contract of $4.8M, a number under the midpoint of $4.9M in this case. Despite similar platform and career numbers, Sanchez entered his second offseason of arbitration eligibility as a much more accomplished major league pitcher. As previously mentioned, Sanchez threw a no-hitter for the Giants in 2009 and in his platform year helped lead the Giants to their first World Series Championship since 1954. Furthermore, Sanchez s career earnings leading up to his second offseason of arbitration eligibility totaled $3.786M. 30 In stark contrast, Samardzija, with worse career numbers, has made a total of $17.58M to date $13.794M more than Sanchez. 31 Because Jeff Samardzija and Jonathan Sanchez recorded similar platform year and career statistics, exhibited a high dependence on strikeouts, and shared a lack of major injuries in addition to Sanchez s more accomplished resume as a starting major league pitcher the arbitration panel should view Sanchez s salary of $4.8M as a comparable salary below the midpoint of $4.9M and should award Jeff Samardzija a salary of $4.7M. b. Shaun Marcum Shaun Marcum is a hard-throwing right-handed pitcher, like Jeff Samardzija, who received $3.95M during his second offseason of arbitration eligibility from the Toronto Blue Jays. 32 The Cubs believe that the arbitration panel should award a salary to Samardzija above Marcum s $3.95M, but below the midpoint of $4.9M. This increase accounts for Samardzija s healthy track 29 http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanchjo01.shtml! 30 Id. 31 http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/samarje01.shtml! 32 http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marcush01.shtml 7!
record and his slightly better strikeout numbers, but is much more representative of the similarities between Marcum and Samardzija s careers than Samardzija s requested salary. Table 3. Shaun Marcum s Career Statistics 33 Year* W-L ERA WHIP SO/9 BB/9 IP AVG. Year 1 0-0 0.00 1.250 4.5 4.5 8.0.214 Year 2 3-4 5.06 1.596 7.5 4.4 78.1.276 Year 3 12-6 4.13 1.245 6.9 2.8 159.0.246 Year 4 9-7 3.39 1.163 7.3 3.0 151.1.220 Year 5 13-8 3.64 1.147 7.6 2.0 195.1.242 Total 37-25 3.85 1.238 7.3 2.9 592.0.244 *Does not include the 2009 season Samardzija and Marcum s career numbers entering their second offseason of arbitration eligibility are very similar. Yet, through this point in his career, Marcum pitched more innings (592 to 558), and posted a lower ERA (3.85 to 4.19), a lower WHIP (1.238 to 1.355), and a lower batting average against (.244 to.254), 34 all while pitching in the much tougher American League East. Samardzija s SO/9 rate is one category where he outperformed Marcum (9.4 to 7.3). 35 However, Samardzija also posted a significantly higher BB/9 rate (4.7 to 2.9). 36 In fact, Marcum displayed a much higher level of efficiency on the mound because of his higher strikeout-to-walk ratio (2.60 to 2.29). 37 Another notable difference between the pitchers arises when comparing career earnings. Heading into his second offseason of arbitration eligibility, Marcum s career earnings totaled $2.043M a massive $15.537M less than Samardzija. 38 More importantly than better career numbers, Marcum posted better statistics than Samardzija in his platform season. He had a lower ERA (3.64 to 4.34), a lower WHIP (1.147 to 33 http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6204&position=p 34 http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marcush01.shtml; http://www.baseballreference.com/players/s/samarje01.shtml 35 Id. 36 Id. 37 Id. 38 http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marcush01.shtml! 8!
1.348), and held batters to a lower batting average (.242 to.255). 39 While Samardzija did have a better SO/9 rate (9.0 to 7.6) in his platform season, Marcum was much more efficient nearly doubling Samardzija s strikeout-per-walk ratio (3.837 to 2.74). 40 One major difference between the two pitchers is Marcum s injury history. Marcum missed the entire 2009 season after undergoing Tommy John Surgery. However, keeping in line with the current trend of starting pitchers who have successfully recovered from Tommy John Surgery, 41 Marcum bounced back from the surgery in his platform year of 2010 by posting career highs in strikeouts (165), innings pitched (195.1), and wins (13), along with a career low WHIP (1.147). 42 Marcum was financially penalized for his injury during his first offseason of arbitration eligibility when only received $850,000 from the Blue Jays. 43 However, Toronto rewarded Marcum with $3.95M after a successful rebound in his platform season an amount that is significantly lower than the midpoint in the present case. Samardzija and Marcum had very similar career numbers before their second offseasons of arbitration eligibility. On the other hand, Marcum s platform year was undoubtedly better than Samardzija s platform year. Nevertheless, because of his ability to avoid injuries, the Cubs agree that Samardzija deserves more than the $3.95M Marcum received during his second offseason of arbitration eligibility. However, with the notable success of Tommy John Surgeries, the aforementioned better statistics posted by Shaun Marcum (both career and platform year), the enormous gap in career earnings between the two pitchers, and Samardzija s decline in performance during his platform year, the arbitration panel should find that the Cubs generous 39 http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marcush01.shtml; http://www.baseballreference.com/players/s/samarje01.shtml 40 Id. 41 http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/mlb-big-league-stew/study-124-current-mlb-pitchers-undergone-tommy-john- 011100585.html 42 http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marcush01.shtml 43 Id. 9!
offer of $4.7M is more representative of the difference between the two pitchers than the $5.1M being requested by Samardzija. Overall, Samardzija had similar career and platform season statistics as both Jonathan Sanchez and Shaun Marcum. In his career to date, Samardzija has a similar ERA, a similar WHIP, a similar strikeout total, and a similar number of innings pitched as both Sanchez and Marcum before they reached their second offseason of arbitration eligibility. In addition, all three pitchers had similar platform years, with Samardzija s being the worst of the three. Despite these similarities, the Cubs have compensated Samardzija much more generously throughout his career than both the Giants and the Blue Jays in Sanchez and Marcum s cases, respectively. As a result, this arbitration panel should award Samardzija a salary similar to both Sanchez and Marcum, which in this case is the Cubs considerable figure of $4.7M. VI. Conclusion The Cubs have more than substantially compensated Jeff Samardzija throughout his career for lofty expectations that he has yet to realize. Four seasons in the major leagues have demonstrated a statistical decline for the Samardzija and the Cubs organization, in terms of the team s record and attendance. While not entirely responsible, Samardzija s failure to fulfill his expectations and improve as a pitcher has certainly played a part in the Cubs recent struggles. Samardzija s career to date is similar to the respective careers of Jonathan Sanchez and Shaun Marcum, each of whom signed a one-year contract for less than the $4.9M midpoint in this case during their respective second offseasons of arbitration eligibility. Most importantly, Samardzija is coming off a platform year worse than both Sanchez and Marcum s platform seasons. As a result, the arbitration panel should award the Cubs $2.06M raise to Jeff Samardzija with a salary of $4.7M. 10!