THE PICK 4 MATRIX By Frank R. Scatoni (follow on Twitter @ScatoniSureShot and also check out @OptixEQ) 12/29/17 NOTE: Because this analysis is posted in advance, always check my Twitter feed @ScatoniSureShot for real-time updates based on scratches and track conditions as this analysis is written for surfaces that are fast and firm. Thanks! INTRO Today s Friday card features the $75K Eddie Logan, which also happens to be the first leg of the $300K Guaranteed Late Pick 4. It s a decent sequence as part of a traditional weekday 8-race card, so let s see if we (and trainer Vladimir Cerin, who looks loaded for bear) can build some momentum heading into the holiday weekend. And don t forget: there is also a $95,855 Pick 6 carryover (with a $20,540 Pick 6 Jackpot). LEG 1 (R5): Today s sequence begins with the aforementioned $75K Eddie Logan, a one-mile turf affair for 2-yearolds. A bunch of these come out of the Cecil B. DeMille (G3), which was won by Chad Brown s potential superstar Analyze It, so that race could turn out to be a key one, especially since it was a rodeo at the beginning (so you might want to watch the replay). The rails are at 10-feet, but there isn t much early pace on paper, so we ll see how the jocks decide to play it. #1 MAGIC MUSKETIER (20/1) was 78/1 in the Cecil B. DeMille (G3) while making his first start on the West Coast for Hollendorfer. He encountered some traffic at a few points during the race and never had clear sailing in the lane, so he never really got to show his best stuff but even if he did, I m not sure it would have mattered since his East Coast form was just mediocre, breaking his maiden at 36/1 and then finishing fifth against N2L allowance runners at 24/1. GRADE: X. #2 AYACARA (GB) (5/1) has shown a decent late run for a horse who has only raced on dirt and synth, so we ll see if he can transfer that turn of foot to the turf course. He should be okay on the lawn, but he s facing proven turf horses and he won t have a particularly hot pace to close into. Also note that Kent Desormeaux sticks with another instead of riding back for his brother. GRADE: C. #3 CHOO CHOO (4/1), the second Hollendorfer runner, was 22/1 in the Cecil B. DeMille (G3), but he ran a respectable fourth after running into trouble twice during the running. Despite that, he still managed to run on very well through the lane, suggesting that he can take a nice step forward here with a cleaner trip. GRADE: B. #4 INSCOM (7/2) was 7/2 in the Cecil B. DeMille (G3), taking solid money into the teeth of the overwhelming Chad Brown favorite (and eventual winner) in that race. He s another one who had some trouble in that heat while also having to negotiate a wide journey. Note that he cost $850K back in May, so big things are expected of this guy, so you can expect a much-improved effort today with that Brown monster safely ensconced back on the East Coast. GRADE: A. #5 EAST RAND (4/1) had some trouble at the start of the Cecil B. DeMille (G3) when sent off at 80/1 while making his first start for Mullins here in SoCal. He still managed to put in a decent stretch run to finish third in that event, but he was pretty easily handled by Pubilius Syrus. He could certainly move forward making the second start of his form cycle, but he does have lengths to make up but we just saw a similar looking Mullins runner move forward big-time on opening day. GRADE: A.
#6 HARDBOOT (30/1) is a Cal-bred who just broke his maiden against fellow locals at Del Mar. That race was a bit on the slow side, so this guy is really going to need to step things up to have any say in here. GRADE: X. #7 PUBILIUS SYRUS (9/5) looks very solid in here. He was 6/1 in the Cecil B. DeMille (G3), and he bested a bunch of these by finishing second with a wide journey. Before that, he and Kent showed a nice turn of foot to beat 11 other maidens at 5/2. Kent stays put, and I see no reason why these two shouldn t put forth another solid performance. This guy gives trainer Vladimir Cerin three extremely live runners in this Pick 4 sequence, so if he has a good day, we will too. GRADE: A. #8 BLENDED CITIZEN (12/1) got a perfect pace set-up last time to flatter his closing run, so I would take that victory with a grain of salt especially since two back, he couldn t beat $100K maidens. He ll be grinding away late (and the horse he beat just came back to win easily on opening day), but there isn t much speed in here, and I m not crazy about the jock change from win-rider Pereira to Pena. GRADE: X. LEG 2 (R6): Today s second leg is another 2-year-old race, this one a $30K maiden-claimer for fillies going 6-furlongs on the main track. Cerin has an MSW dropper in here who should be pretty tough provided she gets a decent trip from the far outside. #1 BOOT SCOOTIN KID (20/1) gets back on dirt after a few races on turf and synth, where she just kind of ran along with the race flow and then failed to kick on. Her dirt races, which came at the MSW level, look a little better, and she should be fit cutting back from a mile turf race. That said, she ll need a step forward today. GRADE: X. #2 BRAGGING RIGHTS (6/1) was claimed for $50K out of her debut in the Cal-bred ranks. That was back in October, and now she shows up here at the $30K level, which isn t exactly a vote of confidence, especially since when Sadler claims them, it s because he thinks he can move them up. Clearly, something is amiss with this gal. That said, her debut against tougher wasn t bad, and she won t have to be much to beat these. GRADE: B. #3 MARIANA S GIRL (8/1) just missed by a head last time at Los Al when being sent off at 38/1. She sure outran her odds, but then again, she had every chance to get the win and didn t. We ll see if that Los Al form transfers here, but she ll still need to do better against some of these (including Venice, who beat her easily two back). GRADE: X. #4 SEXY STAR (30/1) debuts for Derek Meredith, who has been awfully quiet this year. The works are on the slow side and more for stamina, so I m okay watching one (even though sire Informed has done well with his young runners). GRADE: X. #5 DON TEATMYCOOKIES (6/1) debuts for Keith Desormeaux, who is much better with secondtime starters, so the presence of Arias makes me think this gal is just out for a spin. GRADE: X. #6 JANE S REVENGE (30/1), yet another first-time starter, goes out for low-profile connections, so we ll see if she s ready to run. The last work isn t that bad, and the 7-pound weight-break with Werner should give her every advantage, but I m fine watching one. GRADE: X. #7 EMPRESS SONGBIRD (12/1) was hooked 5-wide last time when just missing against Mariana s Girl in a 5.5-furlong heat at Los Al. It was a decent effort that she can build upon, but a step forward is required (since she s another one who was pasted by Venice two-back). GRADE: X. #8 WILD EDIE (4/1) has good early speed, and that s a plus in any race, especially a low-level maiden-claimer. Desormeaux hops back on board after Roman guided this gal to a decent second-place finish at a similar level at Del Mar. Third time could be the charm for her, but do note that Venice has her on form as well. GRADE: B. #9 MISTY SLEW (10/1) is a bit of a grinder who needs things to go her way. She came on late two back to get third, losing to Wild Edie; while last time, she tried stretching out to no avail. She ll be fit for
this and with several first-time starters in here, she might get a pace to run into. The presence of Bejarano is also a major plus, since he and Belvoir do fine work together. GRADE: C. #10 PARAWAN (15/1) is a first-time starter for Mendoza, who can pop every now and again at a price. The recent Los Al works aren t exciting, but she did show a little zip back on November 24, so she might be able to run a little bit, being a daughter of Pioneerof the Nile. That said, she cost well less than her sire s stud fee, so she didn t impress anyone as a yearling. GRADE: X. #11 M D S JEWEL (50/1) was 45/1 in her debut at this level at Los Al, and she barely made a dent, finishing a well-beaten sixth in an eight-horse field. I always look hard at second-time starters, but I m not seeing this one. GRADE: X. #12 CELESTIAL MUSIC (20/1) is a first-time starter by a sire whose stud fee is a lowly $1,500. The works aren t anything special, and trainer Sean McCarthy typically does better with his experienced runners. GRADE: X. #13 VENICE (6/1) dropped to a similar level for the first time last time, and she responded with a decent second at 7/2. Her tactical speed means she should get a good tracking trip, provided Pedroza doesn t go too wide from this outside post. She s what I call obvious but unexciting. GRADE: B. #14 UNO TROUBLE MAKER (3/1) looks like the uno to beat, dropping in from the MSW level after stalking then weakening with a wide journey. She s likely to get a wide journey again, but the classrelief and 5-pound weight-break with Roman are significant plusses when racing at this low level. GRADE: A. LEG 3 (R7): Today s third leg is a $40K optional-claiming/n1x for fillies and mares going 6-furlongs on the main track. More often than not, this entry-level allowance condition for the ladies has produced some nice prices over the last three years, so don t take too short of a number in this competitive heat, especially since the morning-line fave is coming off a long layoff and looks better suited to two turns. #1 DISCREET SENORITA (12/1) is a 5-year-old mare who hasn t shown much interest in her last three races. That said, those races were against much tougher foes back East, so we ll see if she wakes up against $40K SoCal company today in her first start out here for David Jacobson. It took Jacobson a while to get going out here a few years ago when he sent out a string, so we ll see if the same fate awaits his charges this year. The class-relief should help, but then again, maybe this gal just doesn t want to be a racehorse anymore. GRADE: C. #2 RUBY TRUST (8/1) looked terrific breaking her maiden on opening day of Santa Anita last year, but she s been plagued by issues and just hasn t looked the same against winners. That said, she is exiting a key race, and if she can run back to her maiden-breaker, she could shock the world in here as a lightly raced 3-year-old but I just hate the fact that she hasn t really been able to string races together. GRADE: B. #3 KENTAN ROAD (8/1) has a ton of early zip, so we ll see if she can carry her speed in her first try against winners. She needed Los Al foes to graduate last time, so the waters get considerably deeper and there are enough forwardly placed runners to keep this gal honest but she will be in front early if you happen to think there s a speed bias this day. GRADE: C. #4 TIME FOR EBBY (20/1) is a grinder who knows her job, but she s always been just a cut below this level with her best work coming against lesser. That said, she should get a pace to grind away into if you think she s good enough to win this. GRADE: X. #5 LATE N LEFT (6/1) has plenty of early zip, so she should keep Kentan Road honest. Toss her last race, where she had trouble at the start, and focus on the decent work she did against Cal-bred stakes foes. She ll be in the vanguard early, so that makes her dangerous in here, but she will need to show more stick in the lane. GRADE: C.
#6 LAKE TIME (8/1) has always shown a decent stretch run, picking up plenty of minor awards but failing to get the needed win at this level. She should get a decent enough pace to close into today, but it s always been too little too late for her. That said, I ll give her another chance in here, since she s had some extremely wide trips at this level, but today, C-Nak hops aboard, and he understands physics and geometry better than any jock on this circuit! GRADE: A. #7 MEET AND GREET (5/1) has looked very sharp beating up on Cal-breds, so we ll see if she can take her game to the next level against open-company. She has plenty of early zip, so Roman will have options from out here and the 5-pound weight-break will come into play during the stretch duel. She ll have to prove her class today, however, but she s a lightly raced 3-year-old with plenty of upside if you re a believer. GRADE: C. #8 DALSAROS (5/2) has been favored in both of her starts, so clearly someone thinks she can really run. In fact, she looked very good destroying maidens back in March when stretching out for the first time and wiring the field as the 1/2 choice. That said, she s been off since then (286-days), so it s quite possible this is just a leg-stretcher for her next start around two turns. You don t have to be a hero by trying to beat her if you don t want, but at 5/2 on the morning-line, I m not particularly interested. GRADE: C. #9 BAD JU JU (3/1) is a professional race mare who takes a drop in class after failing to stay on last time in the Betty Grable at Del Mar going 7-furlongs. She s clearly the class of the field, but there must be a reason Miller is willing to lose her for $40K but because he s willing to lose her, that means she should be fully cranked and ready to run a good race. She has tactical speed and draws the cushy outside post. GRADE: A. LEG 4 (R8): We end today s proceedings with a competitive $50K starter-allowance contested at 8-furlongs on the turf. The rails are at 10-feet, and there looks to be enough pace on paper to make this a fairly run race. Cerin sends out the morning-line favorite, as he looks to cap off a banner day. #1 ROYAL OPERA HOUSE (IRE) (8/1) has run decent races against both tougher and lesser, so he seems to run to the level of his competition. He ll get a good ground-saving trip under Desormeaux, and I like that Hess took him for $25K and has now protected him twice in a row but he will need to show a bit more oomph in the lane. GRADE: B. #2 RED KING (3/1) fits in here like a glove, since all he does is fire and hit the board at this level and therein lies the rub: he s been stuck at this condition for a while, and he s been the beaten favorite in three of his last four races. That said, he has the best late kick in the race, and he s certainly due for a win. GRADE: A. #3 CURLY S WATERFRONT (5/1) ran third at this level two back at Del Mar, so he fits in here, but note that he had every chance and was right there at the sixteenth pole but was outfinished by Red King. This turf course should move him up a bit, however, since he ll get a good forwardly placed trip but will it be good enough? GRADE: B. #4 BACOLI (5/1) was way off the pace last time at this level at Del Mar, and he ran on through the lane under a 7-pound weight-break to finish fourth. He now gets a positive jock change to C-Nak, who should have this guy more involved early. He s not impossible in here if things go the right way. GRADE: C. #5 RAINBOW SQUALL (8/1) qualifies for the Scatoni-off angle, since I bet him more times than I can count to no avail! He s run okay but hasn t been able to get the job done despite several attempts at this level. Perhaps Bejarano can get this guy to show a little more fight in the lane, but even if he does, he ll have to outkick Red King. That said, if I m not making him an A today, then that means he ll probably win! (Though he should really outrun his odds because he s better than he looks on paper.) GRADE: B.
#6 PACIFIC COAST HWY (6/1) failed to make a dent at this level last time when going 9-furlongs, the distance of his maiden-breaker, so that s a slight concern. However, he s been gelded since that start, and his late kick certainly fits well against these. He should be running on late, but he will need things to go his way. GRADE: C. #7 GOSOFAR (15/1) took forever to break his maiden, which he did against Cal-bred $50K runners last time going 5.5-furlongs at Los Al. He now gets back on the turf, where he likes to dictate the pace before getting overtaken late. Maybe the light-bulb went off but I suspect someone will run him down late (even with the 5-pound weight-break). GRADE: X. #8 UBER STAR (8/1) doesn t have any early speed, so he ll be at the mercy of pace and trip, as always. He was 5/1 at this level back in October, where he ran an even eighth in that 9-furlong race. He ll be coming on late, but Franco will need to time things to perfection, and that s going to be tricky in this big field. GRADE: C. #9 IRON ALEX (20/1) couldn t beat N2L runners, and that s always a concern. That said, he should get a good tracking trip if you think he s capable of a step forward today. GRADE: X. #10 POCKET PERSONALITY (12/1) just broke his maiden at first asking, going 5.5-furlongs at Los Al. Now he stretches out and tries turf for the first time while facing winners never an easy thing to do. He also cost $130K yet debuted for $30K, so the connections either snuck one past the goalie or didn t have high hopes for him. There are questions to answer here, and note that his siblings are 0-for-4 on turf. GRADE: X. #11 LORI S ATTITUDE (12/1) has speed, so expect Baze to gun hard from this outside post and hope for the best. There are other speedy types inside, however, so this gal (yes, she s a filly facing the boys), will really have to earn it today. GRADE: X. #12 LAUREN S LADD (8/1) (AE) has done decent work down the hill, but his tries around two turns have seen him lose lengths in the lane. The post is no picnic, and note that he was just beaten at a similar level as the 5/2 choice. He is making his first start for Baltas, however, so it wouldn t shock me if he ran better, but he ll need some major improvement. GRADE: C. SUGGESTED WAGER If Cerin has a good day, we should too. The whole Matrix costs $86.50, which isn t bad if we can get our 8/1 A home in Leg 3. If you want to spend less, $66 will get you all A s with two B s, while a mere $23.50 will get you all A s with one B. Remember: whatever you choose to do: only play what you re comfortable spending or create your own Ticketmaker play here: http://www.drf.com/store/drf-betsticketmaker. For more info about OptixEQ, please visit and register at https://www.optixeq.com/. Keep in mind: I don t add Also Eligibles to the matrix, so if they draw in, be sure to include them on all of your tickets!