PHILADELPHIA CONDO PRICE INDICES February 26, 2018 KEVIN C. GILLEN, Ph.D. Gillen@AllanDomb.com Disclaimers and Acknowledgments: Alland Domb Real Estate supports the production of this report and it free of charge to the public. Although the author of this report is affiliated with Drexel University s Lindy Institute for Urban Innovation, this report is produced independently of both Drexel and the Lindy Institute. The author thanks Azavea.com, the Philadelphia Recorder of Deeds, the Philadelphia Office of Property Assessment, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, Case-Shiller MacroMarkets LLC, RealtyTrac, Zillow.com, Trulia.com and the NAHB for making their data available for this report., Allan Domb Real Estate, All Rights Reserved.
1980 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986 1987 1988 1989 1989 1990 1991 1992 1992 1993 1994 1995 1995 1996 1997 1998 1998 1999 2000 2003 2005 2006 2008 2011 2015 Philadelphia Condo Price Index v. House Price Indices: 1980-1980Q1=100 690 U.S. HPI 590 Phila. HPI Phila. CPI 490 390 290 190 90 Q4 U.S. HPI courtesy of FHFA.gov. Philadelphia HPI and CPI by Kevin C. Gillen, Ph.D.
1987 1987 1988 1989 1990 1990 1991 1992 1993 1993 1994 1995 1996 1996 1997 1998 1999 1999 2000 2003 2005 2005 2006 2008 2008 2011 2011 2015 420 Price Appreciation 1987-: Philadelphia Condos v. 10-City U.S. Composite 370 10-City Composite Phila. CPI 320 270 %Change 10-City Composite Philadelphia 1998 to Peak: 172% 304% From Peak: -4.4% -4.7% 220 170 120 70 Q4 10-City Composite HPI courtesy of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. The 10-City Composite House Price Index includes: Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington DC. It does not include Philadelphia. Philadelphia CPI estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, Ph.D.
1988 1988 1989 1990 1991 1991 1992 1993 1994 1994 1995 1996 1997 1997 1998 1999 2000 2000 2003 2003 2005 2006 2006 2008 2011 2015 2015 40% YoY Change in Average Prices: 1987- Philadelphia Condos v. Philadelphia Houses v. 10-City U.S. Composite 10-City Composite 30% Phila. HPI Phila. CPI 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 10-City Composite HPI courtesy of S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. The 10-City Composite House Price Index includes: Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington DC. It does not include Philadelphia. Philadelphia CPI estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, Ph.D.
Total Price Appreciation Rates by Market and Time Period Period U.S. HPI* 10-City HPI** Phila. HPI*** Phila. CPI*** 38-Year 142.7% N/A 174.1% 172.9% 10-Year 11.7% 4.3% 23.1% -0.3% 1-Year 6.3% 5.9% 12.7% 8.1% 1-Quarter 1.4% 2.0% -0.5% 1.8% *U.S. House Price Index ("HPI") Courtesy Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). Numbers are through Q3 only. **10-City Composite House Price Index ("HPI") Courtesy S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller. ***Philadelphia House and Condo Price Indices Empirically Estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, Ph.D.
Philadelphia Condo Submarket Boundary Definitions
1980 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986 1987 1988 1989 1989 1990 1991 1992 1992 1993 1994 1995 1995 1996 1997 1998 1998 1999 2000 2003 2005 2006 2008 2011 2015 1000 Condo Price Indices by Submarket: 1980-1980Q1=100 900 800 700 600 500 400 Art Museum/Fairmount/Brewerytown Avenue of the Arts Northeast Phila. Northwest Phila. North Phila. Northern Liberties/Fishtown Old City Other Center City Rittenhouse Square South Phila. University City Washington Square West Phila. 300 200 100 0 Q4 All indices empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, Ph.D.
Philadelphia Condo Price Appreciation Rates by Submarket and Time Period Period Art Museum/ Fairmount/ Brewerytown Avenue of the Arts Northeast Phila. Northwest Phila. North Phila. Northern Liberties/ Fishtown 38-Year 177.0% 180.2% 101.3% 83.7% 133.1% 198.6% 10-Year 2.2% 6.8% -20.4% -54.6% -7.6% 13.0% 1-Year 20.2% 5.8% 6.5% 26.6% 23.2% 8.5% 1-Quarter 3.5% 0.1% -0.8% 5.8% 1.4% 2.2% Period Old City Other Center City Rittenhouse Square South Phila. University City Washington Square West Phila. 38-Year 152.7% 134.8% 222.9% 173.1% 145.7% 210.0% -39.7% 10-Year 7.4% -13.2% 18.8% 10.7% -1.7% 23.6% -159.6% 1-Year 34.1% 20.9% 2.9% 10.2% -8.2% 14.6% -70.0% 1-Quarter 4.3% 7.5% 1.1% 2.2% 3.9% 6.5% -16.7% All indices empirically estimated by Kevin C. Gillen, Ph.D.
Q4 Condo Price Rate of Change by Submarket North Phila.: +1.4% NE Phila.: -0.8% NW Phila.: +5.8% Art Museum/ Fairmount/ Brewerytown: +3.5% Univ. City: +3.9% West Phila.: -16.7% Northern Liberties/ Fishtown/Kensington: +2.2% Old City: +4.3% Other Center City: +7.5% Washington Square: +6.5% Avenue of the Arts: +0.1% South Phila.: +2.2% Rittenhouse Square: +1.1% Note: Each submarket is extruded by its average change in condo values during Q4 in order to reflect its growth (or depreciation) rate relative to other counties.
1980 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986 1987 1988 1989 1989 1990 1991 1992 1992 1993 1994 1995 1995 1996 1997 1998 1998 1999 2000 2003 2005 2006 2008 2011 2015 $400,000 Philadelphia Median Condo Price: 1980- $350,000 $300,000 Raw Smoothed $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 $0 Note: The smoothed series is obtained by applying a multi-period moving average to the raw series.
1980 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986 1987 1988 1989 1989 1990 1991 1992 1992 1993 1994 1995 1995 1996 1997 1998 1998 1999 2000 2003 2005 2006 2008 2011 2015 $900,000 $800,000 $700,000 $600,000 $500,000 $400,000 $300,000 Philadelphia Median Condo Price by Submarket: 1980- Art Museum/Fairmount/Brewerytown Avenue of the Arts Northeast Phila. Northwest Phila. North Phila. Northern Liberties/Fishtown Old City Other Center City Rittenhouse Square South Phila. University City Washington Square West Phila. Citywide $200,000 $100,000 $0 Note: The raw data is smoothed by applying a multi-period moving average to it.
1980 1980 1981 1982 1983 1983 1984 1985 1986 1986 1987 1988 1989 1989 1990 1991 1992 1992 1993 1994 1995 1995 1996 1997 1998 1998 1999 2000 2003 2005 2006 2008 2011 2015 $700 $600 Philadelphia Median Condo $Price/SqFt by Submarket: 1980- AMFB AveArts NEPhila NWPhila NPhila NoLibsFtown OldCity OtherCC RittSq SPhila UCity WashSq WPhila All Philadelphia $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $0 Note: The raw data is smoothed by applying a multi-period moving average to it.
1000 900 800 700 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Number of Philadelphia Condo Sales per Quarter: 1980-600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2015 2011 2008 2006 2005 2003 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980
60 50 Number of +$1m Philadelphia Condo Sales* per Quarter: 1980- Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 40 30 20 10 0 2015 2011 2008 2006 2005 2003 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 *This chart plots the number of condo sales that occurred at prices of $1 million dollars or more.
Philadelphia Condo Sales in Q4 Note: Where there are multiple sales in the same location (i.e. in the same building), the marker is colored by the average price per square foot across all sales in that period.
Center City and South Philadelphia Condo Sales in Q4 Note: Where there are multiple sales in the same location (i.e. in the same building), the marker is colored by the average price per square foot across all sales in that period.
Center City and North Philadelphia Condo Sales in Q4 Note: Where there are multiple sales in the same location (i.e. in the same building), the marker is colored by the average price per square foot across all sales in that period.
Northwest Philadelphia Condo Sales in Q4 Note: Where there are multiple sales in the same location (i.e. in the same building), the marker is colored by the average price per square foot across all sales in that period.
Northeast Philadelphia Condo Sales in Q4 Note: Where there are multiple sales in the same location (i.e. in the same building), the marker is colored by the average price per square foot across all sales in that period.
West Philadelphia Condo Sales in Q4 Note: Where there are multiple sales in the same location (i.e. in the same building), the marker is colored by the average price per square foot across all sales in that period.
Number of Philadelphia Condo Sales in Q4 Note: The size of each marker represents the number of sales in a given condo property that occurred in the most recent quarter. This is done to reflect that many condo properties contain multiple units; e.g. they are mid-rise and high-rise buildings.
Number of Center City Philadelphia Condo Sales in Q4 Note: The size of each marker represents the number of sales in a given condo property that occurred in the most recent quarter. This is done to reflect that many condo properties contain multiple units; e.g. they are mid-rise and high-rise buildings.
+$1 Million Dollar Condo Sales in Q4 Condo Name $Price/SqFt #Sales ARSENAL $200 5 ARTS CONDOMINIUM $311 1 LOFTS AT BELLA VISTA $415 1 RITTENHOUSE SAVOY $491 1 CHELSEA@1515 LOCUST ST $537 1 TWO INDEPENDENCE PLACE $550 1 10 RITTENHOUSE SQUARE $603 3 220 W RITTENHOUSE SQ $694 1 SYMPHONY HOUSE $757 1 RESIDENCES AT TWO LIBERTY PLACE $758 4 SOCIETY HILL TOWERS $818 1 AYER $835 2 THE RITTENHOUSE $854 1 RESIDENCES AT RITZ-CARLTON $1,023 3 10 RITTENHOUSE SQUARE $1,121 2 BLOC 23 / 621 S 24TH ST $1,551 3 ONE WEST / 8200 GERMANTOWN AVE $1,587 2 BARCLAY $1,927 1 ONE RIVERSIDE $1,989 3 PARC RITTENHOUSE $2,136 3 500 WALNUT / 500-06 WALNUT ST $3,412 3 Note: This map shows the location and (average) price per square foot of condo sales that occurred at a price of $1m or more in the most recent quarter.
+$1 Million Dollar Condo Sales in Q4 Note: This map shows the location and (average) price per square foot of condo sales that occurred at a price of $1m or more in the most recent quarter. Condo Name $Price/SqFt #Sales ARSENAL $200 5 ARTS CONDOMINIUM $311 1 LOFTS AT BELLA VISTA $415 1 RITTENHOUSE SAVOY $491 1 CHELSEA@1515 LOCUST ST $537 1 TWO INDEPENDENCE PLACE $550 1 10 RITTENHOUSE SQUARE $603 3 220 W RITTENHOUSE SQ $694 1 SYMPHONY HOUSE $757 1 RESIDENCES AT TWO LIBERTY PLACE $758 4 SOCIETY HILL TOWERS $818 1 AYER $835 2 THE RITTENHOUSE $854 1 RESIDENCES AT RITZ-CARLTON $1,023 3 10 RITTENHOUSE SQUARE $1,121 2 BLOC 23 / 621 S 24TH ST $1,551 3 ONE WEST / 8200 GERMANTOWN AVE $1,587 2 BARCLAY $1,927 1 ONE RIVERSIDE $1,989 3 PARC RITTENHOUSE $2,136 3 500 WALNUT / 500-06 WALNUT ST $3,412 3
# Condos Listed "For Sale" 2,500 Philadelphia Condos Listed For Sale: Inventory v. Sales Rate # Condos Listed For Sale % Sold 35.0% 30.0% 2,000 1,500 1,000 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% %Sold=(#Sales/#Listings) 500 5.0% 0 2015 2015 2011 2011 2008 2008 2006 2006 2005 2005 2003 2003 0.0%
2003 2003 2005 2005 2006 2006 2008 2008 2011 2011 2015 2015 40.0 35.0 30.0 Months' Supply of Condo Inventory in Philadelphia Months' Supply of Inventory measures how many months it would take to completely burn off the existing inventory of homes currently listed for sale, given their current pace of sales. 5-7 months is considered a normal, balanced market. More than 7 months indicates a Buyer's market, and less than 5 months indicates a Seller's market. 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 Buyer's Market Balanced Market Seller's Market 0.0
# of Days 150 Average Days-on-Market* for Philadelphia Condos 130 110 90 70 50 30 *Days-on-Market (DOM) is the average number of days it takes for a listed condo to sell.
%Recovered Condo's Road to Recovery: %Lost v. %Recovered %Remaining 50% 0% -50% -100% -150% -200% 6% -14% 23% 18% 2% -22% -26% -26% -22% -5% This chart ranks (from left to right) condo submarkets by their total percent decline in condo prices from peak to trough. The blue components of the bars represent how much condo prices have recovered to date, while the red components represent how much further they have to rise in order to completely recover the total losses that occurred after the housing bubble burst. Submarkets with red components above the horizontal axis represent markets where prices have fully recovered, and have since moved into net positive territory. For example, Philadelphia's average condo price fell by a cumulative 27% from their peak in 2006 to their trough in. To date, they have recovered 22% of their lost value and need to continue appreciating in order to recover the remaining 5%. By contrast, Rittenhouse Square has fully recovered and prices are now an average of 18% above their previous pre-recession peak. 1% -30% -19% -12% -35% -2% -18% -26% -29% -17% 1% -59% -58% -26% -28% -59% 0% -171%
%Difference in Price from Previous Peak, by Submarket North Phila.: -26% NW Phila.: -59% NE Phila.: -26% Art Museum/ Fairmount/ Brewerytown: +1% Univ. City: -12% West Phila.: -171% Northern Liberties/ Fishtown/Kensington: +1% Old City: -2% Other Center City: -17% Washington Square: +23% Rittenhouse Square: +18% Avenue of the Arts: +6% South Phila.: +2% Note: Each submarket is extruded by the percent difference between current condo price levels and price levels at their previous (pre-recession) peak. For example, condo prices in Northeast Philadelphia are currently 26% below their previous peak, while at the other extreme, condo prices in Washington Square are currently 23% higher than their previous peak. Both peaks occurred in the second half of 2006. Source: Kevin C. Gillen, Ph.D.