WINDPOWER 2013 Conference Chicago, May 8, 2013 Understanding Offshore Wind s Enhanced Peak Load Coincidence for East Coast Transmission Systems Bruce Bailey, Ph.D. President/CEO Co Authors: Whitney Wilson, Senior Engineer Colin Tareila, Engineer
Widespread Interest in Offshore Wind Offshorewind.net
Meteorology of Peak Load Events Atmospheric Circulations Favoring Sea Breezes and Ocean Currents Wind Speeds During Sea Breezes 2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Sea Breeze Structure 2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Load Matching Quality of the Resource Offshore wind has a stronger diurnal coincidence with load than onshore wind, having production peaks in the late afternoon and early evening. Coincidence of offshore wind and load is better defined in summer months, when loads peak. Stronger coincidence is beneficial to grid operators, as they will receive the energy when they need to support load. Stronger coincidence is beneficial to developers, as they will generate energy when power prices are at a peak.
Load Coincidence Illustration Virginia Dominion VA Summer Load Coincidence 1400 100 Dominion VA Load (MW) 1200 1000 800 600 400 Power Load 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Estimated Historical Net Capacity Factor (%) 200 10 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 0 Hour Dominion Load 12 NM Offshore Coastal Onshore Mountains Chesapeake Light C MAN
Load Coincidence Illustration Georgia Georgia Power Summer Load Coincidence 16000 100 Georgia Power Load (MW) 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 Power Load 40 mi offshore 12 mi offshore Coastal zone onshore 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Estimated Average Net Capacity Factor (%) 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Hour Mountain 0 Georgia Power Load 12 NM Offshore Coastal Onshore Mountains Gray's Reef Buoy
Potential Wind Project Areas in the New York Bight 2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Offshore & Onshore Capacity Factors, Offshore Wind Speed and NYC Load for Sea Breeze Cases Peak Load Hours Multiple Offshore Wind Projects: 48% CF Upstate NY Wind Projects: 12% CF
Heat Index, Peak Load and Sea Breeze Intensity NYC Region (2008 12)
Average Load Coincidence for Peak Days 2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Variations Among Projects for a Single Event June 21, 2012 2012 AWS Truepower, LLC
Including Solar as a Load Coincident Resource Solar is another variable renewable energy resource that has significant growth potential The same heat waves that drive demand peaks and strong sea breezes also provide a reliable solar resource.
Case Study of Enhanced Peak Load Reduction from Offshore Wind and Land Based Solar for New York City (Zone J) July 6, 2010 Peak Load = 11.2 GW Illustration assumes 20% penetration of renewables. From Perez, Freedman & Hoff; 2012
Conclusions Weather events responsible for peak electric loads on the East Coast also produce strong sea breezes. Load coincidence from offshore projects is much better vs inland; On peak load days, effective capacities of offshore projects >40% and can approach 100% of max output; Quality of load match depends on locale and event. Forecasting services can inform schedulers; Combination of wind & solar have higher load coincidence than either one alone.
THANK YOU! bbailey@awstruepower.com