Shrimp Production Review

Shrimp Production Review James L. Anderson Director, Institute for Sustainable Food Systems University of Florida Diego Valderrama University of Florida Darryl Jory Global Aquaculture Alliance

James Anderson Institute for Sustainable Food Systems University of Florida Dr. James Anderson is director of the Institute for Sustainable Food Systems and a Professor of Food and Resource Economics at the University of Florida. Previously, he led the World Bank s Global Program on Fisheries and Aquaculture. And earlier he chaired the Department of Environmental and Natural Resource Economics at the University of Rhode Island. Anderson was also the editor of Marine Resource Economics from 1999 through 2011. His recent work has focused on the role of seafood in food security, constraints to aquaculture development and seafood market analysis.

2015 Shrimp Produc5on Survey Issues & Challenges

Shrimp Aquaculture Produc3on by World Region: 1995-2013 Million MT 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 Other Middle East / Northern Africa Americas India China Southeast Asia 2006-2011 Annual growth rate: 5.9% - 14% between 2011-2013 3.0 2.5 2.0 EMS/AHPNS initially surfaced in China in 2009 and significantly impacted global production in 2012-2013. 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Sources: FAO (2015) for 1995-2011; FAO (2015) and (2014) for 2012-2013. Southeast Asia includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar and Taiwan. M. rosenbergii is not included.

Shrimp Aquaculture Produc3on by World Region: 1995-2013 Million MT 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Other Middle East / Northern Africa Americas India China Southeast Asia Average U.S. import price increased 17% between 2011 and 2013. 2006-2011 Annual growth rate: 5.9% - 14% 0.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Sources: FAO (2015) for 1995-2011; FAO (2015) and (2014) for 2012-2013. Southeast Asia includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar and Taiwan. M. rosenbergii is not included.

5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Shrimp Aquaculture Produc3on by World Region: 1995 2013 FAO Sta3s3cs Million MT Other Middle East / Northern Africa Americas India China Southeast Asia 2006-2011 Annual growth rate: 5.9% Based on FAO Produc5on went up by 6.3% between 2011 and 2013 0.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Sources: FAO (2015) for 1995-2013. Southeast Asia includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar and Taiwan. M. rosenbergii is not included.

Million MT 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Shrimp Aquaculture Produc3on by World Region: 1995-2017 Other Middle East / Northern Africa Americas India China Southeast Asia 2006-2011 Annual growth rate: 5.9% - 14% Average U.S. import price fell 9% between 2013 and 2015. +18% 0.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sources: FAO (2015) for 1995-2011; FAO (2015) and (2014) for 2012-2013; (2015) for 2014-2017. Southeast Asia includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar and Taiwan. M. rosenbergii is not included.

Shrimp Aquaculture Produc3on by World Region: 1995-2017 Million MT 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 Looking forward, EMS is still a factor. In addition, EHP will impact production, especially in Asia. The industry will also be influenced by the current El Niño, which may be the strongest on record. 2006-2011 Annual growth rate: 5.9% - 14% 2013-2017 Projected annual growth rate: 7.7% 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 Other Middle East / Northern Africa Americas India China Southeast Asia 1.0 0.5 0.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources: FAO (2015) for 1995-2011; FAO (2015) and (2014) for 2012-2013; (2015) for 2014-2017. Southeast Asia includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar and Taiwan. M. rosenbergii is not included.

Shrimp Aquaculture by Major Producing Regions: 2010 2017 Million MT 2.5 2.0 1.5 Impact of EMS: China, Thailand and Mexico reported the largest declines in production in 2012/2013. Recovery by 2017 will be driven mostly by increased output from Indonesia, Vietnam, India, and Ecuador. 1.0 0.5 0.0 Southeast Asia China India Americas Middle East / North Africa 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources: FAO (2015) for 1995-2011; FAO (2015) and (2014) for 2012-2013; (2015) for 2014-2017. Southeast Asia includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar and Taiwan. M. rosenbergii is not included.

Average Annual Growth Rate Shrimp Aquaculture by Major Producing Regions: 2010-2013 vs. 2013-2017 50% 40% 2010-2013 2013-2017 42.30% 30% 20% 10% 10.40% 5.10% 10.30% 4.40% 5.20% 11.10% 6.40% 0% -10% -5.90% -4.40% Southeast Asia China India Americas Middle East / North Africa Sources: FAO (2015) for 1995-2011; FAO (2015) and (2014) for 2012-2013; (2015) for 2014-2017. Southeast Asia includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar and Taiwan. M. rosenbergii is not included.

Million MT 1.8 1.5 1.2 Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia: 2010 2014 Major Producers China is expected to recover by 2017. Thailand will only see a partial recovery, being displaced from second to fifth place in the region. Production increases in all major farming nations are expected by 2017. The largest increases are expected in Indonesia. 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.0 China Thailand Vietnam Indonesia India 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources: FAO (2015) for 1995-2011; FAO (2015) and (2014) for 2012-2013; (2015) for 2014-2017. M. rosenbergii is not included.

Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia: 2010 2017 Thousand MT 100 80 Malaysia has been heavily impacted by disease. Production declined by nearly 50% between 2010 and 2013, with further declines expected in 2015.. 60 40 20 0 Bangladesh Malaysia Philippines Taiwan 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources: FAO (2015) for 2010-2013; (2015) for 2014-2017. M. rosenbergii is not included.

Average Annual Growth Rate Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia: 2010-2013 vs. 2013-2017 50% 40% 2010-2013 2013-2017 42.30% 30% 23.50% 20% 10.30% 10% 0% -10% -4.40% 5.10% 0.90% -2.90% 8.50% -1.30% -20% -16.60% China Thailand Vietnam Indonesia India Sources: FAO (2015) for 1995-2011; FAO (2015) and (2014) for 2012-2013; (2015) for 2014-2017. M. rosenbergii is not included.

Average Annual Growth Rate Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia: 2010-2013 vs. 2013-2017 25% 20% 15% 20.60% 2010-2013 2013-2017 14.80% 10% 5% 0% 0.50% 2.20% 2.20% 1.40% 6.20% -5% -10% -15% -20% -16.90% Bangladesh Malaysia Philippines Taiwan Sources: FAO (2015) for 2010-2013; (2015) for 2014-2017. M. rosenbergii is not included.

Shrimp Aquaculture in La3n America: 2010 2017 Major Producers Thousand MT 400 350 300 250 200 150 Ecuador is ramping up production as output from other countries declines. Production in 2017 is expected to be 22% higher than in 2013. Brazil expects to reach 85,000 tons by 2017. Mexico heavily impacted by EMS in 2013 and 2014: production down by 50%, with near full recovery by 2017. 100 50 0 Ecuador Mexico Brazil 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources: FAO (2015) for 1995-2012; FAO (2015) and (2014) for 2013; (2015) for 2014-2017. M. rosenbergii is not included.

Shrimp Aquaculture in La3n America: 2010 2017 Thousand MT 50 45 FAO reported substantial increases in production of Honduran shrimp in 2013 but production had decreased by 2015 due to the effect of droughts. In general, Latin American countries expect production increases by 2017. 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Honduras Guatemala Nicaragua Peru Venezuela 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources: FAO (2015) for 2010-2013; (2015) for 2014-2017. M. rosenbergii is not included.

Shrimp Aquaculture in La3n America: 2010 2017 Thousand MT 15 12 Panama is expected to reach 10,000 tons by 2017; growth in Belize, Costa Rica, Cuba and Colombia will be more uneven. 9 6 3 0 Panama Belize Costa Rica Cuba Colombia 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources: FAO (2015) for 2010-2013; (2015) for 2014-2017. M. rosenbergii is not included.

Average Annual Growth Rate 70% 60% 50% Shrimp Aquaculture in La3n America: 2010-2013 vs. 2013-2017 2010-2013 2013-2017 64.70% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 16.90% 16.70% 10.80% 9.60% 5.10% 7.10% 3.10% 6.50% 3.50% -2.30% -12.00% -20.60% -20.40% Ecuador Mexico Brazil Honduras Guatemala Nicaragua Peru Sources: FAO (2015) for 1995-2012; FAO (2015) and (2014) for 2013; (2015) for 2014-2017. M. rosenbergii is not included.

Average Annual Growth Rate 15% 10% 7.90% 9.50% Shrimp Aquaculture in La3n America: 2010-2013 vs. 2013-2017 2010-2013 2013-2017 10.80% 14.40% 9.50% 5% 2.00% 2.30% 0% -5% -10% -15% -3.50% -11.80% -5.40% -1.70% -20% -25% -30% -28.80% Panama Belize Costa Rica Cuba Venezuela Colombia Sources: FAO (2015) for 2010-2013; (2015) for 2014-2017. M. rosenbergii is not included.

Shrimp Aquaculture in Other Repor3ng Countries: 2010 2017 Thousand MT 27 24 21 18 Saudi Arabia will experience a major shift towards production of P. vannamei. 15 12 9 P. monodon P. monodon 6 3 0 Saudi Arabia Madagascar Australia 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Sources: FAO (2015) for 2010-2013; (2015) for 2014-2017. M. rosenbergii is not included.

Million MT World Shrimp Aquaculture (including M. rosenbergii) by Species: 1995-2017 5.5 5.0 71% 73% 4.5 Percentages indicate the share of 4.0 P. vannamei. 67% 65% 70% 3.5 3.0 59% 2.5 45% 75% 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 16% 12% 0.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 P. vannamei P. monodon M. rosenbergii Other Sources: FAO (2015) for 1995-2011; FAO (2015) and (2014) for 2012-2013; (2015) for 2014-2017.

Shrimp Aquaculture (including M. rosenbergii) in Asia by Species: Million MT 1995-2017 4.5 71% 4.0 67% 68% 3.5 3.0 Percentages indicate the share of P. vannamei. 63% 61% 66% 2.5 53% 2.0 37% 1.5 1.0 0.0% 0.2% 0.5 0.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 P. vannamei P. monodon M. rosenbergii Other Sources: FAO (2015) for 1995-2011; FAO (2015) and (2014) for 2012-2013; (2015) for 2014-2017.

World Landings of Wild- Caught Shrimp by Species Million MT Others 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Northern w hite shrimp (Penaeus setiferus) Atlantic seabob (Xiphopenaeus kroyeri) Northern brow n shrimp (Penaeus aztecus) Banana praw n (Penaeus merguiensis) Argentine red shrimp (Pleoticus muelleri) Fleshy praw n (Penaeus chinensis) Giant tiger praw n (Penaeus monodon) Northern praw n (Pandalus borealis) Southern rough shrimp (Trachipenaeus curvirostris) Akiami paste shrimp (Acetes japonicus) 0.0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: FAO (2015).

World Produc3on of Shrimp - - Capture Fisheries & Aquaculture Million MT 8.0 7.0 6.0 Aquaculture accounted for 51% of world shrimp supplies in 2013. 45% 50% 55% 51% 5.0 4.0 28% 3.0 26 % 2.0 1.0 0.0 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Sources: FAO (2015); (2014, 2015). Notes: M. rosenbergii is not included. China includes freshwater production of P. vannamei. Capture Fisheries Aquaculture

Million MT World Produc5on of Shrimp by Species Capture Fisheries & Aquaculture Combined 8.0 7.0 P. vannamei is the most important species in the world, 33% 42% 38% Others/NS P. merguiensis 6.0 with virtually all production coming from aquaculture. Percentages indicate the share of P. vannamei. P. chinensis 5.0 Pandalus borealis 4.0 4 % Trachypenaeus curvirostris 3.0 Acetes japonicus 2.0 P. monodon 1.0 P. vannamei 0.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Sources: FAO (2015); (2014, 2015). Notes: M. rosenbergii is not included. China includes freshwater production of P. vannamei.

Composi3on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc3on by Size Categories Aggregate 2014 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 5% 6% 10% 12% 18% 15% 15% 11% 9% 11% 16% 21% 17% 15% 10% 5% 10% 4% 11% 19% 25% 16% 9% 10% 14% 19% 17% 16% 11% US Imports - HLSO Asia Americas World 6% >70 61-70 51-60 41-50 31-40 26-30 21-25 15-20 <15 Source: (2015).

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 7% Composi3on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc3on by Size Categories Comparison of Survey Data for Asia 7% 5% 5% 8% 6% 7% 7% 7% 10% 12% 10% 15% 22% 19% 20% 21% 29% 69% 30% 18% 16% 14% 19% 65% 64% 30% 23% 61% 6% 7% 17% 27% 12% 12% 13% 11% 15% 19% 11% 18% 43% 15% 16% 9% 9% 7% 5% 5% 15% 25% 18% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 46% 41% 14% 42% 16% 50% 13% 8% 6% 39% 21% 17% 15% 10% 5% 49% 42% >70 61-70 51-60 41-50 31-40 26-30 21-25 15-20 <15 Disease problems in Asia led to the harvesting of smaller sizes since 2011.

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 16% 18% 16% Composi3on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc3on by Size Categories Comparison of Survey Data for the Americas 6% 7% 11% 10% 15% 13% 16% 19% 22% 20% 20% 19% 15% 10% 4% 10% 15% 11% 8% 10% 14% 10% 12% 23% 22% 15% 9% 30% 13% 10% 40% 60% 17% 18% 24% 21% 22% 19% 18% 25% 18% 10% 8% 4% 7% 6% 6% 10% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 54% 10% 4% 30% 11% 42% 14% 50% 61% 19% 25% 16% 9% 25% 60% >70 61-70 51-60 41-50 31-40 26-30 21-25 15-20 <15 There was also a temporary trend towards smaller sizes in Latin America in 2011 and 2012.

Expected Trends in Shrimp Aquaculture Size Categories - Survey 2015 Size Category Asia Americas World <15 Decrease/Stable Stable Decrease/Stable 15-20 Decrease Decrease Decrease 21-25 Decrease Stable Decrease/Stable 26-30 Decrease/Stable Stable/Increase Decrease/Stable 31-40 Decrease/Stable Stable/Increase Decrease/Stable 41-50 Stable Decrease/Stable Stable 51-60 Increase Stable Increase 61-70 Increase Stable/Increase Increase >70 Increase Increase Increase China and Indonesia expect increased production of smaller counts.

2015 Survey Composi3on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc3on by Product Form Aggregate 2014 100% 80% 60% 2% 7% 12% 40% 10% 9% 18% 24% 3% 6% 26% 9% 7% 16% 21% Other Forms Breaded Cooked Peeled 40% 17% 63% 19% Green / Head-off 20% 39% 22% 29% Green / Head-on 0% US Imports Asia Americas World

Composi3on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc3on by Product Form Comparison of Survey Data for Asia 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 11% 12% 8% 22% 20% 35% 19% 6% 2008 25% 30% 22% 9% 2009 8% 19% 18% 23% 28% 18% 24% 2010 3% 4% 6% 12% 13% 8% 7% 22% 17% 2011 9% 15% 18% 10% 33% 2012 20% 25% 20% 23% 2013 16% 24% 18% 30% 2014 10% 9% 18% 24% 17% 22% 2015 39% Other Forms Breaded Cooked Peeled Green / Head-off Green / Head-on

Composi3on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc3on by Product Form Comparison of Survey Data for China 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 5% 10% 9% 9% 4% 5% 9% 10% 18% 21% 10% 8% 27% 15% 20% 13% 4% 13% 15% 11% 25% 20% 16% 11% 22% 27% 14% 5% 31% 5% 30% 35% 33% 25% 15% 13% 5% 54% 48% 17% 15% 4% 5% 2007 2008 14% 9% 2009 28% 2010 20% 2011 2012 25% 2013 2014 17% 13% 22% 24% 3% 22% 2015 Other Forms Breaded Cooked Peeled Green / Head-off Green / Head-on There is a trend in China towards the production of green head-on/head-off and peeled shrimp relative to processed forms.

Composi3on of Shrimp Aquaculture Produc3on by Product Form Comparison of Survey Data for the Americas 100% 80% 60% 6% 7% 7% 53% 46% 45% 12% 31% 3% 6% 3% 4% 14% 15% 34% 30% 24% 3% 6% 26% Other Forms Breaded Cooked 40% Peeled 20% 40% 44% 46% 50% 57% 52% 53% 63% Green / Head-off Green / Head-on 0% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 The growing share of the green head-on form reflects an increased presence of Ecuadorian shrimp in European and Asian markets.

Expected Trends in Shrimp Aquaculture Product Form - Survey 2015 Product Form Asia Americas World Green / Head- on Decrease Increase Stable Green / Head- off Increase Stable Stable/Increase Peeled Increase Stable/Decrease Increase Cooked Stable/Increase Stable Stable/Increase Breaded Increase Stable Increase Other Forms Stable/Decrease Decrease Stable/Decrease There is a clear trend for increased production of green / head-on shrimp in Ecuador for the European and Asian markets.

Diseases ***International market prices ***Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal Seed stock quality & availability Product quality control Access to disease-free broodstock Production costs - Others Environmental management Feed quality and availability Production costs - Fuel Banned chemicals / antibiotic use ***International trade barriers Infrastructure Market coordination Access to Credit Conflicts with other users Public Relations Management 2015 Survey Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture All Countries Not Important Asterisk indicates a Top 3 issue in 2007 Survey Moderately Important Extremely Important

Worldwide Top Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture: 2015 Survey vs. 2014 Survey International market prices Diseases Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal Environmental management Access to disease-free broodstock Seed stock quality & availability International trade barriers Production costs - Fuel Access to Credit Production costs - Others Not Important 2015 2014 Moderately Important Extremely Important

2015 Survey Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture - Asia Diseases ***International market prices ***Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal Seed stock quality & availability Product quality control Environmental management Access to disease-free broodstock Production costs - Others Feed quality and availability Banned chemicals / antibiotic use Production costs - Fuel Infrastructure ***International trade barriers Market coordination Access to Credit Conflicts with other users Public Relations Management Not Important Asterisk indicates a Top 3 issue in 2007 Survey Moderately Important Extremely Important

Diseases ***International market prices Production costs - Fuel Production costs - Others Seed stock quality & availability Access to disease-free broodstock ***International trade barriers Product quality control ***Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal Feed quality and availability Access to Credit Banned chemicals / antibiotic use Market coordination Public Relations Management Conflicts with other users Environmental management Infrastructure 2015 Survey Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture La3n America Not Important Asterisk indicates a Top 3 issue in 2007 Survey Moderately Important Extremely Important

Diseases International market prices Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal Seed stock quality & availability Product quality control Access to disease-free broodstock 2015 Survey Top Issues & Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture Asia vs. La3n America Production costs - Others Environmental management Feed quality and availability Production costs - Fuel Not Important Moderately Important Extremely Important Asia Americas

2015 Survey Global economic condi3ons will be be]er in 2016 compared to 2015 Outlook Asia Americas Others Strongly Agree Bangladesh Agree India, Indonesia, Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam Colombia, Cuba Egypt Neutral/No Opinion China, South Korea Belize, Ecuador, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Peru Australia, Madagascar, Saudi Arabia Disagree Malaysia, Thailand Brazil, Guatemala, Honduras, Venezuela Strongly Disagree

2015 Survey Feed prices will be lower in 2016 compared to 2015 Outlook Asia Americas Others Strongly Agree Agree Neutral/No Opinion China, South Korea Cuba, Ecuador, Mexico Disagree Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam Belize, Brazil, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Panama, Venezuela Australia, Egypt, Madagascar, Saudi Arabia Strongly Disagree Malaysia Peru

2015 Survey The global shrimp market will strengthen in 2016 compared to 2015 Outlook Asia Americas Others Strongly Agree Indonesia Agree Bangladesh, Taiwan Belize, Colombia, Cuba, Ecuador, Guatemala, Panama, Peru, Venezuela Egypt Neutral/No Opinion China, India, Malaysia, South Korea, Vietnam Brazil, Honduras, Mexico, Nicaragua Madagascar, Saudi Arabia Disagree Philippines, Thailand Australia Strongly Disagree

Trends in Trade:

Thousand MT U.S. Shrimp Imports: Expected to Go Up by 4% in 2015 650 600 Other 550 Peru 500 450 Malaysia 400 Mexico 350 300 China 250 Thailand 200 150 Vietnam 100 Ecuador 50 - Indonesia 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015* India Imports from Thailand have declined sharply since peaking in 2010 at 203,000 tons. Thai imports in 2014 were only 32% of the import volume in 2010. Imports in 2015 are expected to recover partially, from 65,000 to 72,000 tons. India, Indonesia and Ecuador have increased their shipments and become the top exporters to the U.S. market. Source: USDC/NMFS (2015) * Estimate

U.S. Landings of Wild- Caught Shrimp 200 Thousand MT 150 100 50 Others Pink White Brown 0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: USDC/NMFS (2015)

10.00 Trends in U.S. Shrimp Import Prices 9.00 8.00 7.00 2000 USD/lb 6.00 5.00 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00-19901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015 <15/lb 31-40 >70/lb Peeled Composite Real prices increased sharply during 2013 but have been declining since 2014. Source: USDC/NMFS (2015)

9.00 P. monodon vs. P. vannamei: U.S. Wholesale Prices 8.00 7.00 6.00 5.00 USD/lb 4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 - (1.00) (2.00) Jan- 99 Jul- 99 Jan- 00 Jul- 00 Jan- 01 Jul- 01 Jan- 02 Jul- 02 Jan- 03 Jul- 03 Jan- 04 Jul- 04 Jan- 05 Jul- 05 Jan- 06 Jul- 06 Jan- 07 Jul- 07 Jan- 08 Jul- 08 Jan- 09 Jul- 09 Jan- 10 Jul- 10 Jan- 11 Jul- 11 Jan- 12 Jul- 12 Jan- 13 Jul- 13 Jan- 14 Jul- 14 Jan- 15 Jul- 15 Farmed, C&SA White, 26-30 Farmed, Southeast Asian, 26-30 Premium, White - Tiger Coinciding with falling supplies from Thailand, wholesale shrimp prices began rising since 2010 with the sharpest increase taking place in 2013. Prices have declined during 2014 and 2015 as other countries (India, Indonesia, Ecuador, Vietnam) increase their exports to the U.S. Source: Urner Barry (2015)

Conclusions Significant recovery occurred in 2014 Expected Global growth rate 2014-17 about +7% However, 2014 to 2015 expected global harvest down - 2% (- 5% Asia; +5% Americas) Disease - Biggest Constraint followed by market prices 2016 - Expecta3ons Higher feed prices; Somewhat stronger shrimp markets (less confident than 2014) Mixed about global economic condi3ons (expecta3ons in 2014 were more bullish)