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IN A NUTSHELL The CUP Water Supply Variability Study is an opportunistic, proactive example of responsible water system management The CUP is very complex and approaching full demand The study capitalizes on previous major studies The study develops an operational management tool that will aid in system operation in times of potential shortage. 2
WHAT ARE THE GOALS OF THIS STUDY? IMPROVE the reliability of the Central Utah Project water supply operations by: 1) Evaluating the combinations of meteorological and operational conditions that stress the system. 2) Understanding the sensitivity to conditions that are more adverse than those that have been observed. 3) Developing operational criteria and plans to aid in operating the system during such adverse conditions.. 3
THE CENTRAL UTAH PROJECT 4
THE CENTRAL UTAH PROJECT 5
PROJECT PURPOSE 1. Improve understanding of severe drought conditions. Develop tool and procedures to aid in recognizing and responding to adverse conditions. 2. Examine the likelihood of future lower inflows Estimate the probability of extreme drought. 3. Aid in decision making Protect the reliability of water supplies by proactive response. Predict the probability of not meeting demands. 4. Educate the public about the potential for supply variability 6
PROJECT PURPOSE 1. Improve understanding of severe drought conditions. Develop tool and procedures to aid in recognizing and responding to adverse conditions. 2. Examine the likelihood of future lower inflows Estimate the probability of extreme drought. 3. Aid in decision making Protect the reliability of water supplies by proactive response. Predict the probability of not meeting demands. 4. Educate the public about the potential for supply variability 7
PROJECT PURPOSE 1. Improve understanding of severe drought conditions. Develop tool and procedures to aid in recognizing and responding to adverse conditions. 2. Examine the likelihood of future lower inflows Estimate the probability of extreme drought. 3. Aid in decision making Protect the reliability of water supplies by proactive response. Predict the probability of not meeting demands. 4. Educate the public about the potential for supply variability 8
PROJECT PURPOSE 1. Improve understanding of severe drought conditions. Develop tool and procedures to aid in recognizing and responding to adverse conditions. 2. Examine the likelihood of future lower inflows Estimate the probability of extreme drought. 3. Aid in decision making Protect the reliability of water supplies by proactive response. Predict the probability of not meeting demands. 4. Educate the public about the potential for supply variability 9
STUDY COMPONENTS Develop RiverWare Model Develop Historical Hydrology Develop Adverse Hydrology Develop Predictive Model Capabilities 10
System Overview and CUPSIM Model Schematic 11
HISTORICAL HYDROLOGY Inflows and Demands taken from PROSIM Model plus Bonneville Unit Definite Plan Report Data Extended to 1950 2009 by correlation 15 Inflow Nodes, 20 Demands, 5 Reservoirs (with up to four accounts each) 12
ADVERSE HYDROLOGY DEVELOPMENT Three Datasets Developed 60 years of ADVERSE Hydrology: Observed Resampled Approach Paleo Sampled Approach Downscaled GCM Projected Approach 13
OBSERVED RESAMPLED HYDROLOGY Annual Volume in acre-feet 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Historic and Observed Resampled Annual Flow - CUPSIM Node 1 All flows in the Strawberry and Duchesne River basins are 25% less in years 2001-2009 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Historic Annuals Historic Average Adjusted Annuals Adjusted Average 14
PALEO SAMPLED HYDROLOGY Annual Volume in acre-feet 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Historic and Adjusted Annual Natural Flow - Future Pattern - CUPSIM Node 1 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Historic Annuals Historic Average Adjusted Annuals Adjusted Average 15
GCM PROJECTED HYDROLOGY CMIP3 Runoff Changes - Miroc3_2_medres (B1) 45% 40% 35% Percent of monthly runoff 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep CMIP3 1950-2009 CMIP3 2020-2079 Natural Flow 1950-2009 16
Annual Volume in acre-feet 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 GCM PROJECTED HYDROLOGY Historic and Adjusted Annual Natural Flow - Future Pattern - CUPSIM Node 1 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Historic Annuals Historic Average Adjusted Annuals Adjusted Average 17
300,000 300,000 SUMMARY OF ADVERSE HYDROLOGY Historic Historic and and Adjusted Adjusted Annual Annual Natural Flow -CUPSIM Node Node 1 --Ordered Ordered 250,000 250,000 ANNUAL VOLUME, IN ACRE-FEET ANNUAL VOLUME, IN ACRE-FEET 200,000 200,000 150,000 150,000 100,000 100,000 50,000 50,000 Historic Historic Observed Observed Resampled Resampled Paleo Paleo Sampled Sampled GCM GCM Projected Projected 0 0 00 10 10 20 20 30 40 40 50 50 60 60 DRIEST TO TO WETTEST WETEST YEARS YEARS 18
CUPSIM MODEL RESULTS 19
350000 300000 CUPSIM Model Simulation Jordanelle Reservoir Storage: Historical vs. Paleo Sampled CUPSIM MODEL RESULTS 250000 Volume [acre-feet] 200000 150000 100000 50000 Averages: Historical : 213,000 acre-ft Adverse: 209,000 acre-ft Difference : -2% Adverse Historical Adverse Average Historical Average 0 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050 2054 2058 Date [month] 20
350000 300000 CUPSIM Model Simulation Jordanelle Reservoir Storage: Historical vs. Downscaled GCM CUPSIM MODEL RESULTS 250000 Volume [acre-feet] 200000 150000 100000 50000 Averages: Historical : 213,000 acre-ft Adverse: 197,000 acre-ft Difference : -8% Adverse Historical Adverse Average Historical Average 0 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034 2038 2042 2046 2050 2054 2058 Date [month] 21
QUESTIONS? Cort Lambson, CUWCD Project Manager Phone: 801-226-7100 Email: cort@cuwcd.com Steve Thurin, HDR Project Manager Phone: 435-659-1872 Email: steven.thurin@hdrinc.com 22 CUPSIM Water Supply Variability Study. All information subject to change.