City of Encinitas Beach Attendance Report 2016 Moonlight State Beach, July 2016 1
Introduction Since 2004, the City of Encinitas has intermittently employed counting technology to measure beach attendance. Counting systems are used by cities, businesses, and nature preserves to record the number of people who enter a designated site. The City operates eight quantitative counting devices called beach counters to study visitation rates at local beaches and gain insight into the popularity of each beach. Beach counters are a reliable and cost-effective method because they log data 24 hours a day, seven days a week with very little maintenance cost. Data from the beach counters can be analyzed and compared by hour, day, month, quarter, and year. In the past, beach attendance was recorded by Encinitas lifeguards. However, the City s Marine Safety Program discontinued the practice due to the subjectivity of its methods. This new method provides a standardized protocol for the collection of data. The data collected by the beach counters has various purposes; for example, the data can be used to study the economic value of the beaches to the City. A strong linkage between the beaches and the local economy is tourism; the beaches bring out-of-town visitors to North County. Hospitality businesses in the area can benefit from tourism through the Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT). The attendance counts are also beneficial for historical record; year-to-year comparisons involving environmental variables and other events can be beneficial for future analysis. Furthermore, the people counters verify the importance of maintaining the shoreline 1 because sandy beaches attract visitors. This is made possible by the commission of beach programs. This is all but not limited to: The City s Marine Safety Program The Beach Maintenance Program Coastal Commission State agencies Non-profit organizations The beach counters confirm the benefits of these programs and how they positively influence beach attendance. The data helps support the continuation of beach programs. Purpose of Report The objective of this report is to analyze the counter data from eight Encinitas beaches and determine the factors that influenced beach visitation in 2016. Project Outline Analyze data trends on a seasonal basis Summarize overall data peaks and reductions in beach attendance Compare counter data to air temperature, precipitation, and surf height 1 Sanding projects; this method preserves the shoreline and cliffs by replenishing the beaches with sand. Diminishment from waves, wind, storms, and other meteorological occurrences removes sand from the beaches and cliffs - resulting in a loss of beach and potentially infrastructure. 2
Methods and Means The time period for this study runs from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2016. It was a leap year comprised of 366 days. As mentioned before, Encinitas is an appealing location for tourism on a year-round basis. For seasonal analysis, the data is organized into two time periods: summer (100 days) and winter (266 days). For a visual representation, see Figure 1: Figure 1 Time Span of Winter and Summer* *Winter represents the period from January 1, 2016 to May 25, 2016 and from September 2, 2016 to December 31, 2016 (266 days); summer represents the period from May 25, 2016 to September 1, 2016 (100 days) Counting Devices Eco-Visio is a product from the Canadian company Eco-Counter. Eco-Visio is software that uses a cloud-based platform to organize data collected by counters; it is equipped with tools to analyze data, generate reports, share with colleagues, and secure data. The PYRO box is a quantitative counting system from Eco-Counter. The device counts pedestrians and bicyclists using a passive infrared sensor to detect body temperature. The PYRO transmits data to Eco-Visio. This counter is used for research purposes at eight beaches in Encinitas: Beacon s Beach, D Street Beach, Grandview Beach, Moonlight State Beach, Ponto Beach, San Elijo State Beach, Stone Steps Beach, and Swami s State Beach. It is positioned in front of public access points. The PYRO box, concealed at Beacons Beach 3
Vicinity map showing the eight locations of the City beach counters Information from External Sources Additional information was collected from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) - the National Centers for Environmental Informations website (www.nodc.noaa.gov). Plots and data regarding water temperature, wind speed, and sea level from La Jolla, California (9410230 La Jolla, CA) were used in comparative analysis. The Coastal Data Information Program (CDIP.ucsd.edu) provided data plots regarding surf height in 2016 from Station 043 in Camp Pendleton Nearshore, CA and Station 045 in Oceanside Offshore, CA. AccuWeather (www.accuweather.com) contributed air temperature records from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2016 in Encinitas, California. 4
Analysis 2016 had the highest attendance count compared to previous years; Eco-Visio logged 2,953,613 counts. From 2015 to 2016, the annual count increased by 18%. However, 2016 is the only year to possess data from eight beach counters. The data log from 2013 to 2015 is supplied with results from six counters. 2 For trend analysis, data from the six beach counters was compared on a yearly basis. Listed below is a yearly comparison of beach counter results from 2013 to 2016: Figure 1 Monthly Sum of Six Beach Counters Between 2013 and 2016* 2013 2014 2015 2016 January 142,526 138,890 102,823 February 103,549 142,842 154,693 March 166,434 219,183 145,714 April 162,255 188,597 155,141 May 225,704 159,169 149,691 June 221 281,295 272,557 279,549 July 22,294 369,568 316,208 406,292 August 223,388 324,988 298,873 308,577 September 160,560 199,937 208,670 181,610 October 113,604 160,393 165,963 161,032 November 104,659 139,477 117,380 151,784 December 130,889 105,960 158,004 97,335 Total 755,615 2,382,086 2,386,336 2,294,240 *Beach counters include: Beacon s Beach, Grandview Beach, Moonlight State Beach, Ponto Beach, San Elijo State Beach, and Stone Steps Beach Across the span of 12 months, 2016 logged both record high and low counts. As shown in Figure 2, 2016 had the highest count in July (406,292) compared to other months. In fact, July 2016 has the highest count of all monthly recordings. Additionally, data from February 2016 and November 2016 had the highest data log recorded by the beach counters. Comparatively, 2016 also had the lowest records from January to June. This was a result of El Niño. In the winter season, the region experienced four overtopping storm surges from El Niño. This swept in large winter swells, cool, dry wind, heavy rainfall, and unseasonably warm weather. Result in coastal flooding, waves overtopped public roads, and accelerated coastal erosion. However, the beaches gained sand unusual? For reference, the surf height from Oceanside Offshore, California and Camp Pendleton Nearshore, California is displayed in a month-tomonth sequence. These buoy sites are used for comparison because they are in close vicinity to Encinitas. 2 The two additions to the 2016 attendance count were the Swami s Beach counter and the D Street counter; data for the Swami s Beach counter and the D Street Beach counter began on Friday, May 27, 2016. 5
Figure 2 CDIP Month-to-Month Surf Height 2016* Source: CDIP.ucsd.edu *Data plots from January to September were obtained from Station 045 Oceanside Offshore, CA Data plots from October to December were obtained from Station 043 Camp Pendleton Nearshore, CA 6
The month of January experienced high precipitation, first storm: January 4 through January 8 (5 days of precipitation) which is an unusual occurrence in San Diego. The storm brought in above average swells; increased the surf height In the month of February, February 1 February 3, reached 20 feet and depleted to 6 feet by the February 3, low swells (under 6.6 feet) after the occurrence Unseasonably warm, temperature high 77 /53 F Sporadic rainfall throughout the month, total rainfall was 0.07 inch. High pressure cool dry wind, resulting in sunny weather March frequent swells between 6 and 10 feet March 6 to March 13 on and off precipitation resulting in.47 inch of rain. Water temperature was above normal; unseasonably warm in air temperature Analysis Overview of All Beach Counters Figure 3 Monthly Sum of All Beach Counters Between 2013 and 2016* 2013 2014 2015 2016 January 142,526 138,890 102,823 February 103,549 142,842 154,693 March 166,434 219,183 145,714 April 162,255 188,597 155,845 May 225,704 159,169 162,046 June 221 281,295 272,557 393,203 July 22,294 369,568 316,208 567,538 August 223,388 324,988 298,873 424,223 September 160,560 199,937 208,670 256,856 October 113,604 160,393 165,963 229,945 November 104,659 139,477 117,380 216,722 December 130,889 105,960 158,004 144,005 Total 755,615 2,382,086 2,386,336 2,953,613 *All beach counters include: Beacon s Beach, D Street Beach, Grandview Beach, Moonlight State Beach, Ponto Beach, San Elijo State Beach, Stone Steps Beach, and Swami s State Beach (8 total) Across the span of 12 months, 2016 logged both record high and low counts. As shown in Figure 2, 2016 had the highest count in July (567,538) compared to other months. In fact, July 2016 has the highest count of all monthly recordings. Additionally, data from February 2016 and June to November 2016 had the highest data log recorded by the beach counters. Comparatively, 2016 also had the lowest records for January, March, and April. Overarching patterns can be further analyzed by organizing the data into two seasons: winter and summer. 7
Winter and Summer The organization of this time period was chosen to study the spike in beach attendance counts during the summer season; it was also done to analyze the attendance counts in winter leading up to summer and the period after summer. The following pie chart shows the total visitor counts for winter and summer: Figure 4 Winter versus Summer Visitor Counts* *Winter (visitors/period) = 1,503,398 / 2,953,615 Summer (visitors/period) = 1,450,215 / 2,953,613 As demonstrated in Figure 3, the summer season narrowly had duplicate visitation counts to the winter season. In the span of 100 days, the summer period had a log of 1,450,215 counts. Comparatively, the winter period had a log of 1,503,398 counts in 266 days; 53,183 more counts than the summer season. It is noteworthy that the summer season recorded over 1.4 million counts in 100 days. On a daily average, it can be assumed that the summer season brings in more visitors than the winter season. This can be viewed by looking at the week day and weekend attendance average for each season. 3 The daily, weekly, and monthly attendance counts in the summer are above average compared to the winter counts. This helps explain why the months of June through September recorded some of the highest counts of the year; more people came to the beach on a work day and weekend average. It is assumed that the weekend permits higher attendance counts; it is widely recognized as a time for leisure in business and school institutions. With the presence of summer, more people are on break and enjoy leisurely time during the work week. One measurable and consistent factor for the above average week day counts were a specific population of beach visitors: 3 For data results, see Time Span Summary Spreadsheet for Winter and Summer 8
Young surfers at Moonlight State Beach Surf camps, running between June and August, are a popular summer activity for young locals. Another popular program is Junior Lifeguards. As many as 50 or more children will participate per week in these camps which typically occur in the hours between 8:00 am and 12:00 pm during the work days. During this time period, there is a peak in beach attendance. As shown in Figure 1, there is a slight decrease in population counts in September. That depletion could be explained by the end of summer programs and the beginning of the school year. For the winter season, the average work day and week day had similar counts in the time span from January 1, 2016 to May 24, 2016 and September 2, 2016 to December 31, 2016. The daily and weekly averages were half of the averages for summer. On the weekends, the numbers would increase. The return to school and work could share a pattern with the overall beach attendance rates. Despite variations in total beach counts, each beach counter recorded a similar monthly pattern; there was an increase in February, a reduction in March, April, and May until the summer months occurred. Counts slowly diminished into December with slight variations in October through November counts. One noteworthy pattern was the similarity between the month of February and the month of November. The months of February and November experienced notable population counts for all beaches with both surf sites and tourist sites; the months of February and November had similar to identical patterns in counts. A bar graph of two popular surf sites (Figure 4 and Figure 5) and one popular tourist site (Figure 6) show identical numbers in February and November in respect to the population average for each beach. 9
Figure 5 Monthly Bar Graph of San Elijo State Beach Source: eco-visio.net Figure 6 Monthly Bar Graph of Grandview Beach Source: eco-visio.net Figure 7 Monthly Bar Graph of Moonlight State Beach Source: eco-visio.net The mirroring comparison between the three beach sites signified a shared environmental variable. The tidal range for February and November was considered favorable for swimming and surfing. This promotes offshore beach activity for surfers and swimmers alike. 10
Figure 8 Comparison of CDIP Surf Height February 2016 and November 2016 Source: CDIP.ucsd.edu February and November also shared similar water temperatures. Both months ranged in the 60s; November had more variation in water temperature. Due to its close proximity, data taken in La Jolla, California provides an identical estimate to the water temperature in Encinitas, California. Figure 9 Monthly Water Temperature Results from La Jolla, CA Source: NOAA Although the beach count totals are similar, one factor to keep in mind is that November had an overall higher population count than February. The overall visitation count for November (216,722) was higher than previous years; it was an unusual increase in counts. The new employment of two beach counters could have influenced this recording. It is also possible that favorable environmental factors played a role in beach visitation rates for November and February. Notable Peaks and Reductions in Beach Attendance 11
Moonlight State Beach Highest Attendance Count Moonlight State Beach Among all eight beach counters, the counter at Moonlight State Beach had the highest attendance results (879,696) in 2016. It recorded its highest attendance count in July (154,044) during the summer. This means 27.1% of the overall counts for July 2016 came from this specific site; the highest percentage. Moonlight State Beach is a popular site for tourism, attracting both families and out-of-town visitors. The site has amenities such as restrooms, showers, fire pits, volleyball courts, a playground, a rental shack, the Marine Safety station, and more. These factors make it a popular site for onshore and offshore activity. Lowest Attendance Count Ponto State Beach Figure 10 Monthly Bar Graph of Ponto State Beach Source: eco-visio.net In comparison, Ponto State Beach had the lowest attendance results (195,872) in 2016. One factor to keep in mind is that the Ponto beach counter began recording on April 27, 2016. However, the D Street counter and the Swami s counter recorded higher results both counters have been operating since May 27, 2016, exactly one month after the Ponto State Beach counter. Although, D Street is used as an alternate access point for Moonlight State Beach and Swami s Beach is a popular surf spot making them popular beach sites. Like Moonlight State Beach, Ponto State Beach provides amenities such as restrooms, showers, fire pits, and volleyball courts. 12
However, the low counts between October and December show that it was not a popular option for beach visitation. It is possible that the limited time frame was the result of an overall low attendance rate. Peak Visitation Days for All Beaches Figure 11 Recorded Peak Days of 2016 Beach Counter Peak Day Special Events Beacon's Sun, 19 Jun, 2016 (3,360) Father's Day D Street Sat, 9 Jul, 2016 (8,080) Switchfoot Bro-Am Grandview Sun, 17 Jul, 2016 (2,828) Moonlight Sat, 2 Apr, 2016 (11,280) Ponto Sun, 19 Jun, 2016 (3,287) Father's Day San Elijo Fri, 27 May, 2016 (1,927) Stone Steps Mon, 4 Jul, 2016 (2,049) Independence Day Swami's Mon, 4 Jul, 2016 (2,049) Independence Day Out of all the peak days in 2016, 75% of the peak days occurred in the summer. Peak days fell on nationally observed holidays, community events, and the end of the school semester for K-12 students. Additionally, 5/8 peak days occurred on a weekend. It is assumed that each day was a day-off for most people. One of the two data values that did not occur in the summer was the peak day for Moonlight State Beach (11,280); the highest attendance count for Moonlight State Beach occurred on Saturday, April 2, 2016 between the hours of 3:00 a.m. and 7:00 a.m. It is an outlier. Additionally, another exception is the peak day for San Elijo State Beach. Beach attendance was at its highest result at 8:00 a.m. (1,581). It poses as another outlier in the data set. One possible variable that could relate to this specific recording was the water temperature. According to the NOAA, the water temperature was 67.1; a temperature favorable for surfing and swimming. Minimum Visitation Days for All Beaches Figure 12 Recorded Minimum Days of 2016 Beach Counter Minimum Day Special Events Beacon's Fri, 16 Dec, 2016 (59) 1.01 IN Rain D Street Fri, 16 Dec, 2016 (155) 1.01 IN Rain Grandview Fri, 16 Dec, 2016 (121) 1.01 IN Rain Moonlight Fri, 16 Dec, 2016 (156) 1.01 IN Rain Ponto Fri, 16 Dec, 2016 (33) 1.01 IN Rain San Elijo Tue, 5 Jan, 2016 (49) 0.46 IN Rain (El Nino) 13
Stone Steps Fri, 16 Dec, 2016 (54) 1.01 IN Rain Swami's Fri, 16 Dec, 2016 (128) 1.01 IN Rain The lowest attendance count of the year was Friday, December 16, 2016; this data result was recorded by seven of the eight beach counters. The region experienced its highest rainfall (1.01 inch) in a single day. Thus, the weather conditions were unfit for normal beach visitation. San Elijo State Beach recorded its lowest daily average on Tuesday, January 5 with 49 visitors. Further research is required to determine the factors that influenced the visitor counts. Beach Attendance and Air Temperature in 2016 2016 was considered a cold year in the North County region; previous years such as 2014 and 2015 had more heat waves than 2016. Air temperatures over 68 F primarily lined up with high population counts; however, air temperatures over 68 F were more frequent in the summer season. Surprisingly, there was no specific difference in population counts whether the air temperature was in the high 60 s or in the low 50 s. However, significant highs in beach attendance share a pattern with temperatures with a high of 77 F or higher 4 Ponto Beach Beach Attendance and Warm Weather The warmest days of the year ranged from late June 2016 to September 2016. The highest air temperature was on Monday, September 26, 2016 at 100 /67 F. It occurred during a five-day heat wave from September 25, 2016 to September 29, 2016. In relation to the high air temperature, there was an increase in beach attendance. Residents from both coastal areas and inland areas will go to the beach on hot days; the beach offers a coastal breeze and cool ocean water for swimming. However, the peak in attendance count for September occurred over Labor Day weekend; the temperature was 69 /64 F - a comfortable temperature. But the additional factor of a nationally observed holiday could be related to the spike in beach attendance. 4 For more information, see September 2016 on The 2016 Master Report - Daily Beach Count 14
Figure 13 Recorded Beach Attendance September 2016 Source: eco-visio.net Figure 14 AccuWeather Temperature Graph September 2016* *X-axis and y-axis titles have been added to graph Beach Attendance and Rainfall in 2016 The annual rainfall in Encinitas, California was 8.75 inches. From January until April, San Diego County experienced four overtopping storms from El Niño. This resulted in large swells and warm air temperatures. Compared to the summer season, beach attendance counts were lower in months that experienced rainfall. In this region, rain tends to fall and stop throughout the day; in rare cases, it rains nonstop. Precipitation that is less than.05 inch does not prevent surfers from going into the ocean. But naturally, there is a drop in beach attendance when there is precipitation. After heavy rainfall, beach attendance rates at all beaches increased in 24-48 hours after rainfall. Listed below is a table representing the month-to-month precipitation rate of 2016 in Encinitas: 15
Figure 15 Month-to-Month Precipitation Compared to Monthly Data Counts of All Beach Counters 2016* Precipitation (IN) Sum of All Visitation Counts January 2.42 102,823 February 0.07 154,693 March 0.47 145,714 April 0.6 155,845 May 0.9 162,046 June 0 393,203 July 0 567,538 August 0 424,223 September 0.37 256,856 October 0.05 229,945 November 0.84 216,722 December 3.03 144,005 *All beach counters include: Beacon s Beach, D Street Beach, Grandview Beach, Moonlight State Beach, Ponto Beach, San Elijo State Beach, Stone Steps Beach, and Swami s State Beach (8 total) Highest Monthly Rainfall - December December had the highest record of rainfall with a reported 3.03 inches. As demonstrated in Figure #, December had the lowest attendance rate at all Encinitas beaches. In fact, the lowest attendance count of the year was Friday, December 16, 2016. The region experienced its highest rainfall (1.01 inch) in a single day. Thus, the weather conditions were unfit for beach visitation. However, the rainstorm resulted in tide levels over eleven feet. 24-48 hours after the storm, beach attendance rates increased. It is possible that the increase in wave height influenced people to go to the beach. Figure 14 illustrates the tidal range in December 2016. Figure 16 CDIP December 2016 Surf Height Source: CDIP.ucds.edu 16
Lowest Monthly Rainfall May - September From May 31, 2016 to September 19, 2016, no precipitation was reported. During this period of time, the highest attendance results were recorded by all eight beach counters. Conclusions and Recommendations In final analysis, 2016 had many record peaks in daily, monthly, and yearly attendance. Like previous years, data from the summer season constituted the highest attendance counts of the year in daily attendance and monthly attendance. Additionally, the total count for July 2016 verified the value of a summer beach day to the City of Encinitas; July 2016 had the highest monthly attendance count on record. With all eight beach counters in full operation, there is anticipation to see the data results for 2017 and whether the numbers will continue to increase. The winter season also shared a significant number of peaks in monthly attendance. The months of September, October, and November had the highest counts compared to previous years. It is possible that the employment of eight beach counters is the reason for the peaks. Meteorological effects such as precipitation and heat had similar patterns to the peaks and reductions in attendance count. On a daily and monthly scale, high precipitation equated to lower attendance counts. Rainfall limits onshore and offshore beach activities for health and safety reasons. Days with an air temperature over 77 F had higher attendance counts in comparison to preceding days. The short bout of heat waves in September brought thousands of visitors to the beaches on both week days and weekends. The most noticeable pattern following the attendance counts are nationally observed holidays and weekends. A majority of peak days happened to fall on holidays such as Labor Day, Independence Day, Valentine s Day, and more. Additionally, weekends and Mondays had high attendance counts. This supports the notion that people with recreational time on their hands will go to the beaches. Even with unfavorable surf and air temperature, people will visit the beaches. This could signify that the maintenance of the beaches is crucial for high attendance rates. It is suggested that another beach visitor survey is conducted during the summer season to study the demographic of the population. Similar to surveys conducted in the past, it could ask for zip code, the expected duration of beach visit, how many days one will visit the beaches in Encinitas, daily spending in the area for non-locals, and other related attributes. Additionally, the survey could ask participants where they find their information regarding weather, tide level, water temperature and other factors that help determine beach activities. This initiative would aim to gain a better understanding of the factors that influence beach attendance. Limitations of the Study and Data The total number of beach visitors per year cannot be precisely measured due to the difficulty of counting every visitor. The data collected by the beach counters are a representation of the number of visitors who enter through a public access point. Each beach has multiple access points; both public and private. The locations and specific calibrations of the counters were proposed by researcher Philip King, PhD. 5 5 For more information, see Estimating Beach Attendance and Calibrating the Beach Counters for the City of Encinitas (2006). 17
Data for the Swami s Beach counter and the D Street Beach counter begins on Friday, May 27, 2016. Data from Ponto Beach begins on Wednesday, April 27, 2016. Data from Friday, January 1, 2016 to Tuesday, April 26, 2016 was determined to be inaccurate due to unusual peaks in counts resulting from technical difficulties. 18
Figure # Source: NOAA According to the NOAA, the mean sea level trend in La Jolla is 2.19 millimeters per year. Stone Steps Beach 19