Population trends in Hungary in the 2nd half of the 20th century and in the last 15 years Péter Őri (Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, Budapest) Driving forces behind demographic trends in Visegrad countries: The role of migration and family formation 10-11 September 2015, Prague
Some facts about the demographic development of Hungary A continuously decreasing population size since 1981 natural decrease + effect of migration (prior to 1989: insignificant; 1990-2007: weak positive effect; since 2007: negative effect) Low fertility In the 1960s and recently even in European comparison High mortality even in Central European comparison A special (but changing???) pattern of migration A relatively low level of emigration (a strong increase in the last decade) A special composition of immigrants (mainly ethnic Hungarians from the neighbouring countries: from Romania, Ukraine, and ex- Yugoslavia) 2
1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1941 1949 1960 1970 1980 1990 2001 2011 Hungary s population in the longer run 11000000 10000000 9000000 8000000 7000000 6000000 5000000 4000000 Note: present-day territory, Source: Population censuses, Hungarian Central Statistical Office 3
1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 Crude birth and death rates, Hungary, 1960-2014, 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 CBR CDR Source: HCSO vital statistics, Demographic Yearbooks 4
Total fertility rate in Hungary: cross-sectional (a) and cohort rates (b) 1950 1918 1920 1953 1922 1956 1924 1959 1926 1962 1928 1965 1930-1931 1968 1932 1971 1934 1974 1936 1977 1938 1980 1940-1941 1942 1983 1944 1986 1946 1989 1948 1992 1950 1995 1952 1998 1954 2001 1956 2004 1958 2007 1960 1962 2010 1964 2013 a) 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 2,3 b) 2,2 Sources: 2,1 2 1,9 1,8 1,7 HCSO, Historical statistics (1992) and Fertility database 5
Fertility after the regime change in Hungary A strong decline from 1992 until the turn of the century Fertility stagnating at a low level in European comparison lowest low fertility The consequences of the regime change or the crisis situation after 2008 or a total change in reproductive behaviour: second demographic transition? A definite decrease of fertility or postponement and the persistence of the two-children model? 6
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mean age at childbirth in Hungary, 1990-2013, females and males * 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 Females, 1st child Females, all children Males, all children * If the father is known Source: Kapitány, B. - Spéder Z.: Gyermekvállalás [Childbearing] In Monostori Judit Őri, P. - Spéder Z. (eds.): Demográfiai Portré, 2015 [Demographic Portrait of Hungary, 2015, English version in print], Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, Budapest, 2015. 46. 7
Rate of childless women in a given age, by birth cohort, 2010, Hungary % 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 Source: Kapitány, B. - Spéder Z.: Fertility. In Őri, P. - Spéder Z. (eds.): Demographic Portrait of Hungary, 2012, Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, Budapest, 2012. 37. 8
The problem of postponement: TFR, adjusted TFR and mean age of mothers at childbirth, 1988-2013 2,2 2,0 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1,0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 31 30 29 28 27 26 25 TFR Adjusted TFR Mean age of mothers at childbirth Source: Kapitány, B. - Spéder Z.: Gyermekvállalás [Childbearing] In Monostori Judit Őri, P. - Spéder Z. (eds.): Demográfiai Portré, 2015 [Demographic Portrait of Hungary, 2015, English version in print], Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, Budapest, 2015. 47. 9
A model without postponement: a pessimistic view Ferenc Kamarás (Demográfia, 2012 55(4): 243-267.): fertility level by birth cohort Completed fertility in the cohorts of the 1960s Observed number of children born + actual agespecific rates in higher age groups in the case of younger generations with uncompleted fertility Fertility level without any compensation or postponement: the worst possible version? 10
The observed and estimated number of children by age in different birth cohorts, 2011, per thousand 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 1963 1975 1980 1985 Note: observed number of children by birth cohort + age-specific fertility rates in higher age groups observed in the the given calendar year. Source: Kamarás, F.: A születések és a termékenység hazai irányzatai [Births and fertility in Hungary], Demográfia, 2012, 55(4): 253. 11
The distribution of birth cohorts by child number and the partly estimated completed fertility Year of birth Child number 0 1 2 3+ Total Mean number of children per thousand women % 1963 8,5 21,3 47,1 23,2 100,0 1 970 1975* 17,5 26,2 36,4 19,8 100,0 1 660 1980* 29,3 22,8 30,6 17,4 100,0 1 420 1985* 38,3 19,9 25,7 16,1 100,0 1 275 * Partly estimated on the basis of the age-specific fertility rates observed in the year 2011. Source: Kamarás, F.: A születések és a termékenység hazai irányzatai [Births and fertility in Hungary], Demográfia, 2012, 55(4): 255. 12
Fertility in the past few years and the prospects of the future Postponement before 2005 In the last decade: change in the reproductive behaviour (lowest low fertility has become a prevailing model) The possible consequences are serious The elimination of the two-children model A strong percentage of childlessness A further decreasing cohort fertility, further moving off from the replacement level Crisis situation or the signs of a convergent demographic development Both: anyway the elements of a new and coherent demographic behaviour Low fertility Cohabitation before marriage and instead of marriage 13
Extramarital and total fertility (the number of live births per thousand) by the age of the mothers 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1990 2013 Extramarital fertility Total fertility 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 Életkor 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Extramarital fertility Total fertility 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 Életkor Source: Kapitány, B. - Spéder Z.: Gyermekvállalás [Childbearing] In Monostori Judit Őri, P. - Spéder Z. (eds.): Demográfiai Portré, 2015 [Demographic Portrait of Hungary, 2015, English version in print], Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, Budapest, 2015. 53. 14
Type of first long-term union by the period of its formation % 100 90 80 70 60 50 44,3 62,5 70,0 84,8 88,6 40 30 20 10 0 55,7 37,5 30,0 15,2 11,4 1990 1994 1995 1999 2000 2004 2005 2009 2010 2013 Marriage Cohabitation Source: HDRI Turning points of the life course panel-study, Murinkó, L. Spéder Z.: marriage and cohabitation. In In Monostori Judit Őri, P. - Spéder Z. (eds.): Demográfiai Portré, 2015 [Demographic Portrait of Hungary, 2015, English version in print], Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, Budapest, 2015. 17. 15
Partnership trajectory in the first five years after the start of cohabitation as first-time union by partnership cohorts % 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1987 1991 1992 1996 1997 2001 2002 2006 Existing permanently Existing as marriage Dissolved after marriage Dissolved Source: HDRI Turning points of the life course panel-study, Murinkó, L. Spéder Z.: marriage and cohabitation. In In Monostori Judit Őri, P. - Spéder Z. (eds.): Demográfiai Portré, 2015 [Demographic Portrait of Hungary, 2015, English version in print], Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, Budapest, 2015. 18. 16
Life expectancy at birth, 1960-2012, by sex 80 78 76 74 72 70 68 66 64 62 60 Males Females Source: HCSO vital statistics, Demographic Yearbooks 17
Standardizált halálozási ráta 1/100000 Standardised mortality rates (number of deaths per 100 thousand) in some European countries, 2005-2007 2250 2000 1750 1500 1250 1000 750 500 250 0 IT FI AUUK CZ PL BG RO HU RU IT FI AUUK CZ PL BG RO HU RU Férfiak Males Nők Females Source: Kovács, K. Őri, P.: Social disparities in mortality. In Monostori, J. Őri, P. S. Molnár E. Spéder Z. (eds.): Demographic Portrait of Hungary, 2009. HDRI, Budapest, 2010. 55. 18
Mortality trends in Hungary Crisis situation in the first half of the 1990s Particularly middle-aged males Stagnating or slightly decreasing female mortality A marked decrease in mortality from the second part of the 1990s onwards First of all due to the decrease in cardio-vascular mortality Cancer mortality is one of the worst ones in international comparison Overall mortality is also very unfavourable in European comparison Male mortality is significantly higher than in Poland or in the Czech Republic Social disparities in mortality are very strong 19
1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1941 1949 1960 1970 1980 1990 2001 2011 The change in the age structure of the population 10000000 8000000 6000000 4000000 2000000 0 0-19 20-64 65- Source: HCSO census data (present-day territory) 20
dependency rates ageing index Dependency rates and ageing index in the long run 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 Old-age dependency rate Total dependency rate Young-age dependency rate Ageing index Source: HCSO census data (present-day territory) 21
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 The future: hypotheses of the population projection and population size in the future Basic version Low version High version 2013 2030 2060 2030 2060 2030 2060 TFR 1,34 1,60 1,60 1,45 1,45 1,74 1,74 Life expectancy, 72,00 76,70 84,80 75,60 82,50 77,50 87,10 males Life expectancy, 78,70 82,40 88,70 81,10 85,00 83,70 92,40 females Balance of international migration -7340-5960 7500-17500 -7500-4360 17500 Source: Földházi, E. : The structure and future of the population. In In Monostori Judit Őri, P. - Spéder Z. (eds.): Demográfiai Portré, 2015 [Demographic Portrait of Hungary, 2015, English version in print], Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, Budapest, 2015. 214. 216. Millió fő 10,5 10,0 9,5 9,0 8,5 8,0 7,5 7,0 6,5 22 Basic Low High
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 Ageing and old-age dependency rate in the future At present: more elder people than young, 2060: 2,5-3 times more 1990: 1 elder people + 5 active-age people 2011: 1 elder people + 4 active-age people 2060: 1 elder people + 2 active-age people Ageing index Old-age dependency rate 3,5 3,0 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0,0 Basic Low High Basic Low High Source: Földházi, E. : The structure and future of the population. In In Monostori Judit Őri, P. - Spéder Z. (eds.): Demográfiai Portré, 2015 [Demographic Portrait of Hungary, 2015, English version in print], Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, Budapest, 2015. 224. 23
Population in the future instead of conclusions Considerable decrease of population size according to every version Strong ageing process Increasing burdens on the active-age population The overall situation can be more favourable since the elder people produce something But the problem is not entirely demographic The burdens depend on the economic development, on the level of employment, on the education and on the health status of the elderly Population size under 7 million only in the low version in case of emigration and modestly increasing fertility and decreasing mortality But if we calculate with the size of the generations already born and the long-term persistence of these numbers and with actual life expectancy the mean size (number of years they will live) of these generations will be around or below 7 million even without emigration Only with high life expectancy (around 90 years) and/or a positive balance of international migration can be reached the basic version s 8 million Without a considerable surplus of international migration the worst scenarios will come 24