[Type text] [Type text] [Type text] ISSN : 0974-7435 Volume 10 Issue 20 BioTechology 2014 A Idia Joural FULL PAPER BTAIJ, 10(20), 2014 [12451-12458] Risk assessmet of waterway emergecies i Yagtze river by usig fuzzy logic Deg Shou Cheg 1,3, Wu Qig*,1, Chu Xiu Mi 2 1 School of Logistics Egieerig, Wuha Uiversity of Techology, Wuha 430063, (CHINA) 2 Itelliget Trasport System Research Ceter, Wuha Uiversity of Techology, Wuha 430063, (CHINA) 3 School of Computer & Iformatio, Three Gorges Uiversity, Yichag 443000, (CHINA) E-mail: wq@whut.edu.c ABSTRACT Emergecy respose level ad emergecy capability are the critical factors for risk assessmet of waterway emergecies i ilad rivers. Emergecy respose level is determied by the cosequece or possible impact caused by disaster or a serious accidet, ad emergecy capability idetifies the capabilities ad resources available to reduce the damage of the emergecy evets. I this paper, a fuzzy logic method for risk assessmet of waterway emergecies is suggested. First, fuzzy weighted average approach was proposed for the assessmet of emergecy respose level. Triagular fuzzy umber is defied to preset the ucertai ad vague judgmet which exists i the criteria of emergecy respose level i Yagtze River. The detailed calculatio of fidig fuzzy weighted average is give. Secod, fuzzy sythetic evaluatio approach was applied for the assessmet of emergecy capability. The idex system is established where capability attributes are distracted accordig to the formal four-phases of risk maagemet i Yagtze River. At last, the risk level of waterway emergecies is defied i cosiderig the combiatio of the emergecy respose level ad emergecy capability. It is hoped that the risk assessig method would provide decisio support i dealig with waterway emergecies i Yagtze River. KEYWORDS Waterway emergecy; Emergecy respose level; Emergecy capability; Fuzzy weighted average (FWA); Fuzzy sythetic evaluatio (FSE). Trade Sciece Ic.
12452 Risk assessmet of waterway emergecies i Yagtze river by usig fuzzy logic BTAIJ, 10(20) 2014 INTRODUCTION Yagtze River, Chiese Chag Jiag, is the logest ilad river i Chia ad the third logest i the world. Its basi exteds for some 3,200 km from west to east ad for more tha 1,000 km from orth to south. The mailie of Yagtze River is 2,838 km from ShuiFu i Yua provice to its mouth i Shaghai city, ad it is divided ito upper, middle ad lower reaches. Yagtze River is the busiest ilad waterway i the world. I 2013, its cargo trasportatio reached 1,920 millio tos, makig high desity of vessel traffic o the river. Nevertheless, waterway emergecy has attracted more ad more attetio. Accordig to the latest statistics, there are 1,067 maritime accidets from 2009 to 2013 i the jurisdictio of Chag Jiag Maritime Safety Admiistratio (CJMSA). These accidets led to 147 victims ad 85 wrecks, caused ecoomic loss of about 91.66 millio. Waterway emergecy i Yagtze River meas a actual or immiet evet that edagers or threates huma lives ad properties, results i evirometal cotamiatio o the river, or iterrupts waterway trasportatio. Nature of waterway emergecy i Yagtze River icludes collisio, groudig, cotact, machie failure, fire/explosio, spill of oil, escape of harmful substace, etc. CJMSA is committed to esurig that its emergecy maagemet teams ad rescue resources are well-prepared ad ready to respod to waterway emergecies istatly. The objective of respose operatios i the cotext of maritime emergecies by CJMSA is to save people who are dagerous oboard or have falle ito the water, prevet damage to vessels ad cargo, ad have the obligatio to preserve the river eviromet. May researchers have focused o the topic of maritime risk assessmet. Wag [1] preseted the formal ship safety assessmet framework, ad discussed the five steps i Formal Safety Assessmet for which the guidelies for use i the IMO rule-makig process approved i 2002. Yag et.al. [2] proposed a subjective security-based assessmet ad maagemet framework usig fuzzy evidetial reasoig approaches, the framework ca be used to assemble ad process subjective risk assessmet iformatio o differet aspects of a maritime trasport system from multiple experts i a systematic way. Balmat et.al. [3] developed a modular ad hierarchical structure usig fuzzy logic to defie automatically a idividual ship risk factor which could be used i a decisio makig system. Zhag et.al. [4] established a grid-based collisio risk assessmet model based o the aalysis ad research of traffic flow, chael status ad the eviromet. However, rare attetio has bee paid to the risk assessmet of ogoig maritime emergecies i ilad rivers. Risks associated with waterway emergecies ca be attributed to their complexity ad dyamics, ad risk assessmet ca provide techical support to decisio makig ad rescue operatios. I ext two sectios, the assessmet of emergecy respose level ad emergecy capability based o fuzzy weighted average ad fuzzy sythetic evaluatio is studied respectively. The, risk level of the waterway emergecy is determied accordig to the results of emergecy respose level ad the static emergecy capability of the sub-brach of CJMSA. At last a case study is give to demostrate the proposed method ad the coclusios are made. EMERGENCY RESPONSE LEVEL ASSESSMENT USING FWA Emergecy respose level (ERL) of waterway emergecy idicates the severity of the cosequece i aspects of casualty, ecoomic ad eviromet impact, ad trasportatio ad social ifluece. ERL shows the degree of urgecy i the emergecy respodig. Accordig to the cotigecy pla, waterway emergecies are divided ito four levels accordig to its severity. The higher the ERL is, the higher level of govermet, idustry ad busiess, maritime safety admiistrator are resposible to deal with the emergecy. The impacts of waterway emergecies have bee caused or may be caused i later time. Some cosequece is clear ad it is easy for the admiistrator to prejudge the level. But some cosequece is potetial ad ucertai (e.g. the degree of evirometal cotamiatio) uder some special circumstace. Uder the circumstace of assessig ad dealig with waterway emergecies, experts from various fields would aid the decisio makig. The expert pael icludes maritime safety admiistrator, experieced captai, fire authority, dagerous ad chemical goods processer, etc. Therefore, fuzzy weighted average approach is applied to sythesize the experts opiios to determie the ERL. Fuzzificatio of emergecy respose level Emergecy respose level i Yagtze is determied by its actual or potetial damage. Accordig to the severity, TABLE 1 give the suggest criteria for the ERL which is divided i four grades: extremely great, very great, great ad ordiary. The correspodig data ivolved i the levels referred to both the cotigecy pla for waterway trasportatio emergecies issued by Miistry of Trasportatio of Chia [5] ad the related cotigecy pla established by CJMSA. As some impacts of the emergecy evet are potetial ad ucertai, triagular fuzzy umber is applied to describe the ucertaity ad vagueess of them. The triagular fuzzy umber is defied to preset the value of ERL i term of Expert s judgmet. Ad it is writte as vi ( vi, vi, vi) (1) Where v i, v i ad v i deote the low, medium ad high value respectively accordig to expert s judgmet.
BTAIJ, 10(20) 2014 Wu Qig et al. 12453 Four referece itervals correspodig to the four ERLs are also defied so as that the experts ca give the scores of v i, v i ad v i. The itervals is show i TABLE 2, as ca be see, 0 vi vi vi 40. TABLE 1 : Suggested criteria for ERL ERL Level 1 (Extremely great) Level 2 (Very great) Level 3 (Great) Level 4 (Ordiary) Criteria: severity of casualties, ecoomy, ad eviromet, or ifluece area Fatalities are more tha 30 or huma lives of this umber are threateed; Cause sigificat area o eviromet impact ad recovery may take moths; Cause extreme damage to avigatio facilities such as ship lock, bridge, etc.; Cause 12 hours iterrupt or 24 hours cogestio for the chael or port; Require deploymet of jurisdictio resources of multiple provices Fatalities are more tha 10 ad less tha 30, or huma lives of this umber are threateed; Cause sigificat impact o eviromet ad recovery may take weeks; Cause huge damage to avigatio facilities such as ship lock, bridge, etc.; Duratio of chael or port iterrupt is more tha 8 ad less tha 12 hours, or cogestio of more tha 12 ad less tha 24 hours; Require deploymet of jurisdictio resources withi oe provice jurisdictio or Miistry of Trasportatio Fatalities are more tha 3 ad less tha 10, or huma lives of this umber are threateed; Cause moderate evirometal impact ad recovery may take weeks; Cause moderate damage to avigatio facilities such as ship lock, bridge, etc.; Duratio of chael or port iterrupt is more tha 4 ad less tha 8 hours, or cogestio of more tha 6 ad less tha 12 hours; Require deploymet of jurisdictio resources withi CJMSA or oe city jurisdictio Fatalities are less tha 3 a, or huma lives of this umber are threateed; Cause isolated impact o eviromet or atural recovery expected withi weeks; Cause damage to avigatio facilities such as ship lock, bridge, etc.; Duratio of chael or port iterrupt is less tha 4 hours, or cogestio of less tha 6 hours; Require local or iitial resources oly TABLE 2 : Suggested referece iterval correspodig to differet level ERL Referece iterval Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 30-40 20-30 10-20 0-10 The fuzzy weighted average method Fuzzy weighted average (FWA) approaches are commo operatios i the aalysis of risks ad decisios to illustrate the cotext of multi-participat decisio makig. Dog ad Wog [6] proposed a FWA algorithm to computer the fuzzy weighted average based o Zadeh s extesio priciple, the algorithm used α-cut represetatio of fuzzy sets ad correspodig itervals of both the criteria ad the relative weights. Liou ad Wag [7] further improved Dog ad Wog s computatio, which sharply reduces the complexity of the VFWA algorithm. Afterward, Guh et al. [8] improvemet the algorithm based o the max-mi paired elimiatio FWA (PFWA) cocept, so as that the level of its computatioal complexity is relative lower. More recety studies, Qia et al. [9] used the extesio priciple, α-cut represetatio of fuzzy sets ad itervals aalysis to fid FWA. For its simple calculatio process ad accurate results, Qia s algorithm is chose for the calculatio. Suppose experts participate i the ERL assessmet. Triagular fuzzy umber vi ( vi, vi, vi), wi ( wi, wi, wi) deotes the assessed value ad the relative weight about the i th expert respectively. The decisio weight assiged to each expert participatig i the assessmet depeds o the expert s experiece ad the role he played. The calculatio steps of FWA are preseted as follows: Step 1: discretize the rage of membership fuctio ito a fiite umber of value α 1, α 2,, α m, where α j [0,1]. The larger the umber m, the more accurate the results are. Step 2: for each α-cut, fid the itervals of the ERL [ yi( ), yi( )], ad the itervals of the relative weight [ xi( ), xi( )], where y1( ) y2( ) y( ), ad y1' ( ) y2' ( ) y '( ), i = 1, 2,,. Step 3: compute k usig Eq. (2) ad (3). If g(r-1) < 1 ad g(r) 1, the k = r; If g (r-1) > 1 ad g (r) 1, the k = r.
12454 Risk assessmet of waterway emergecies i Yagtze river by usig fuzzy logic BTAIJ, 10(20) 2014 r gr ( ) xi( ) xi( ) l 1 l r 1 (2) r' g'( r') xi( ) xi( ) l' 1 l' r' 1 (3) Step 4: compute x k ad x k ' usig Eq.(4) ad (5), ad obtai weight vector X ad X. xk 1 xi i 1, r (4) x k ' 1 x i' 1, r' i ' (5) Step 5: compute the fial desired iterval of the α-cut. [ xy l l( ), xl ' yl '( )] l 1 l' 1 (6) Step 6: repeat step (2) - (6) for each α j, with j = 1, 2,, m. Aggregate the emergecy respose level After the pael of experts assesses the ERL ad presets the values i triagular fuzzy umber referrig to Eq. (1), the FWA algorithm ca be applied to aggregate ERL usig the calculatio steps metioed above. The sythetic assess value ca be obtaied as oe triagular fuzzy umber v ( vvv,, ), where v v v. If vvv,, are withi the same iterval of oe level provided i TABLE 2, the ERL is obtaied. Otherwise, the optimistic or pessimistic criteria ca be used to acquire the fial level. EMERGENCY CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT USING FSE Emergecy capability performs importat fuctios before ad after disaster strikes. Emergecy capability assessmet have bee coducted i the field of risk maagemet such as atioal all-harzards target capability related to four homelad security missio areas of the Uited States [10], capability assessmet for a city [11], earthquake emergecy preparedess [12], ad hospital emergecy preparedess [13], ad so o. Waterway trasportatio emergecy capability assessmet is developed to assess the factors of ability with which to carry out effective search ad rescue activities o the water. To assess this capability, maritime safety admiistrator would have rich situatio awareess ability ad establish earlywarig mechaisms, ad take proper search ad rescue actios to prevet as much as possible the potetial ad actual impacts caused by the emergecy evets. Fuzzy sythetic evaluatio is based o fuzzy logic. FSE is used to classify samples for kow stadards ad guidelies, which is a modified versio of traditioal sythetic evaluatio techiques [14]. It provides a sythetic evaluatio of a object relative to a objective i a fuzzy decisio eviromet with a umber of factors [15]. I this study, FSE techique is applied i developig the framework for emergecy capability assessmet of waterway emergecies. Establish idex system of emergecy capability The idex system of waterway emergecy capability assessmet is comprised of 28 capabilities which are listed i TABLE 3. The capability factors are categorized accordig to the formal four phases of emergecy maagemet - prevetio, preparig, respodig, ad recovery from waterway emergecies. The hierarchical structure of the two layers is distracted ad is used for the fuzzy sythetic evaluatio. Fuzzificatio of the parameters To assess each factor of capabilities, assessmet criterio is divided ito four grades accordig to expert s opiio. Ad the fuzzy set of grade alteratives is expressed as E = {poor, moderate, good, very good}. Its membership fuctio ca be formed by the results of questioaire survey. For example, the survey results o the pael of experts to take part i capability assessmet idicated that 5% of the experts opied the maturity of a capability as poor, 40% as moderate, 36% as good ad 9% as very good. The the membership fuctio of this capability factor is give by Eq. (7).
BTAIJ, 10(20) 2014 Wu Qig et al. 12455 TABLE 3 : Idex system of emergecy capability assessmet for waterway emergecies Four phases of emergecy maagemet Prevetio phase F1 Preparig phase F2 Respodig phase F3 Recoverig phase F4 Key factors Emergecy orgaizatios ad risk maage system F11 Clear ad detailed resposibility for the orgaizatios ad persoel F12 Allocatio of maritime patrol sites ad boats F13 Emergecy towage ad salvage F14 Hazard resources idetificatio ad surveillace F15 Critical ifrastructure ad water areas protectio F16 Cotact with jurisdictios, hospital, port ad waterbore corporatios F17 Cotigecy plas architecture ad law eforcemet F21 Professioal emergecy teams F22 Respose equipmet ad material F23 Commuicatio ad iformatio techology F24 Surveillace ad early warig ability F25 traiig ad exercise F26 Rescue fuds F27 Iformatio dissemiatio ad awareess F28 Iformatio acquisitio of emergecy evet F31 Normalized respose procedures ad o-site maagemet F32 Effective aalysis ad itelliget decisio makig F33 Quick ad effective dispatch of persoel ad emergecy resource F34 Respoder safety ad health F35 Oil spill respose ability F36 hazardous ad oxious substace respose ability F37 Vessel fire icidet respose support F38 Huma evacuatio F39 Effective cooperatio ad coordiatio F310 O-site restoratio F41 Evet ivestigatio ad assessmet F42 Summary report ad lessos F43 f 1 0.05 0.4 0.36 0.09 poor moderate good very good (7) It ca also be writte as (0.05, 0.4, 0.36, 0.09). All the evaluatio values of 28 factors i the idex system form a membership fuctio matrix of the fuzzy evaluatio, so the membership fuctio matrix has 28 rows ad 4 colums, it is writte with U ( uij)28 4 (8) Calculate weights usig aalytic hierarchy process (AHP) The weights assessmet of risk factors plays a essetial role i the criticality aalysis. A modified AHP method is applied to work out the priority weights of risk factors, allocated based o the expert s experiece, kowledge, ad expertise i waterway trasportatio safety admiistratio. AHP is a structured techique for orgaizig ad aalyzig complex decisio. I a typical AHP method, experts eeds to give a defiite umber withi a 1-9 scale to the pair-wise compariso i the AHP matrix so that the priority vector ca be calculated. The matrix has the parameters arragig a score rage of 1 to 9 i the rows ad colums which is selected ad allocated. The scores represet from equally importat to extremely importat respectively. The value of u ij describes the degree of importace with compariso betwee u i ad u j. The correspodig reciprocals 1, 1/2, 1/3,, 1/9 are used for the reverse compariso, i. e. uij 1/ uji. After the AHP matrix is obtaied by the expert judgmet, the eigevector of the maximum characteristic root is calculated, ad the weight for the importace of each evaluatio factor is calculated after ormalizatio. To guaratee the
12456 Risk assessmet of waterway emergecies i Yagtze river by usig fuzzy logic BTAIJ, 10(20) 2014 reliability ad applicatio value betwee expert judgmet data ad the weight calculated, cosistecy ispectio is eeded for the AHP matrix. Cosistecy Idex (CI) is max CI 1 (9) Where max is maximum characteristic root of the acquired AHP matrix. Ad is order of the matrix. After lookig for radom cosistecy idex (RI), cosistecy Ratio (RI) is calculated as follow CI CR RI (10) If CR < 0.1, the weight allocated is ratioal, or the AHP matrix eeds to be adjusted util cosistecy is satisfied. Aggregate the emergecy capability After the fuzzy valuatio matrix is obtaied ad weights are determied, the fuzzy value of emergecy capability is aggregated usig matrix multiplicatio. The result is worked out i the form of cumulative 4-tuple fuzzy set. Makig use of the priciple of maximum membership degree, the result of emergecy capability level ca be obtaied. T 1 11 12 13 14 w u u u u w 2 u21 u22 u13 u 24 C WU............... w u u u u 28 281 282 283 284 (11) Where W is the weights vector with twety-eight rows correspodig to the capability factors, U is the evaluatio matrix of membership fuctio. EVALUATE OVERALL RISK I this paper, risk is divided ito five levels low, medium, high, very high ad extremely high. Ad risk is also defied as a compositio of emergecy respose level (ERL) ad emergecy capability (EC). The rule-base as established to determie the risk of waterway emergecy which occurs. Therefore the overall risk ca be obtaied accordig the sixtee rules listed below. TABLE 4 If ERL is level 4 ad EC is poor the Risk is high If ERL is level 4 ad EC is moderate the Risk is medium If ERL is level 4 ad EC is good the Risk is medium If ERL is level 4 ad EC is very good the Risk is low If ERL is level 3 ad EC is poor the Risk is very high If ERL is level 3 ad EC is moderate the Risk is high If ERL is level 3 ad EC is good the Risk is high If ERL is level 3 ad EC is very good the Risk is medium If ERL is level 2 ad EC is poor the Risk is extremely high If ERL is level 2 ad EC is moderate the Risk is very high If ERL is level 2 ad EC is good the Risk is very high If ERL is level 2 ad EC is very good the Risk is high If ERL is level 1 ad EC is poor the Risk is extremely high If ERL is level 1 ad EC is moderate the Risk is extremely high If ERL is level 1 ad EC is good the Risk is extremely high If ERL is level 1 ad EC is very good the Risk is very high CASE STUDY From waterway emergecies that have occurred i the Yagtze River, a emergecy sceario is costructed for the case study: A cargo ship carryig huge cotaiers of various goods titled due to the effect of turbulet curret. The officer i
BTAIJ, 10(20) 2014 Wu Qig et al. 12457 charge did ot have eough assessmet ad awareess of the situatio, ad tried to make a tur. The improper avigatio ad isufficiet fasteig of the cotaiers led to a serious accidet te cotaiers fell ito the river. Some cotaiers impeded the avigable chael. Ad more seriously, two of the boxes carried dagerous chemicals of corrosive potassium permagaate, sodium permagaate, ad potassium hydroxide. As the emergecy is reported to maritime safety admiistratio, risk assessmet is coducted ad rescue operatios are carried out. The duratio of impedig avigatio ad the severity degree o the eviromet caused by the emergecy case are the two key factors to determie the emergecy respose level (ERL). They both are ucertai ad there is ot a accurate umber ca be used to describe them, so fuzzy weighted average (FWA) method is applied to the multiple criteria decisio makig. A pael of five experts participats the decisio makig. TABLE 5 gives the fuzzy assessmet value v i i the form of Equatio (1), ad the fuzzy weights w i are allocated accordig to the experts specialties ad experiece. The desired iterval for α-cuts is computed usig the steps itroduced i sectio 3, ad the results are show i TABLE 6. The the fuzzy weighted average ca be obtaied as v = (19.1, 23.40, 26.56), which presets the comprehesive emergecy respose level, ad the membership fuctio of v is located most close to referece iterval of 20-30. Accordig to TABLE 2, the emergecy respose level the waterway emergecy ca be determied as very great. TABLE 5 : Assessmet data of fuzzy weighted average Expert Fuzzy assessmet value Fuzzy weight v i w i 1 (14,16,18) (0.08,0.10,0.20) 2 (15,18,20) (0.10,0.20,0.30) 3 (22,24,26) (0.25,0.30,0.35) 4 (22,25,26) (0.10,0.20,0.30) 5 (28,30,32) (0.15,0.20,0.30) TABLE 6 : α-cut values of the FWA algorithm α-cut The desired iterval 0.1 [19.10, 26.56] 0.2 [19.52, 26.25] 0.3 [20.37, 25.63] 0.4 [20.80, 25.31] 0.5 [21.23, 25.00] 0.6 [21.66, 24.68] 0.7 [22.09, 24.36] 0.8 [22.52, 24.04] 0.9 [22.96, 23.72] Fuzzy sythetic evaluatio is a mature quatitative tool for data aalysis. Ad its purpose is to provide a sythetic evaluatio of a object relative to a objective i a fuzzy decisio eviromet. It is widely used to assess multiple criteria decisio makig, so FSE is feasible to the static assessmet of emergecy capability of each sub-brach of CJMSA. After FSE is coducted to the emergecy capability assessmet combied with the questioaire techique, the static results is obtaied ad stored i the emergecy maagemet system. As the emergecy respose level of the case is already kow as very great, referrig to TABLE 4, the risk level ca be obtaied as very high, high ad medium relative to differet coditio of emergecy capability. CONCLUSIONS A risk assessmet method based o fuzzy logic is proposed i this study. For the emergecy respose level (ERL) assessmet, the ERL were divided ito four levels coformig to the actual waterway trasport emergecy cotigecy pla. The triagular fuzzy umber was defied to describe the judgmet of ucertaity ad vagueess about emergecy respose level. Ad the preferece itervals were suggested correspodig to the four levels. Usig FWA approach, the comprehesive triagular fuzzy umber was obtaied which could be used to determie ERL. O the other had, FSE method was proposed for emergecy capability assessmet. The twety-eight capability factors were distracted accordig to the prevetio, preparedess, respose, ad recover phases of waterway emergecy maagemet i Yagtze. AHP method was applied to determie the weights of the parameters, ad the result was aggregated usig matrix multiplicatio. At last, the
12458 Risk assessmet of waterway emergecies i Yagtze river by usig fuzzy logic BTAIJ, 10(20) 2014 risk level was defied ad was divided ito five levels. Sixtee rules were give to determie the overall risk of the waterway emergecies. The case study demostrated that the proposed method was appropriate to aid the decisio makig i the coditio of vague ad ucertai judgmet of ERL, ad also gave support to the risk assessmet. It should be oted that the actual assessmet of emergecy capability of each sub-brach of CJMSA was ot coducted, ad further work is eeded to accomplish this assessmet. REFERENCES [1] J.Wag; The curret status ad future aspects i formal ship safety assessmet, Safety Sciece, 38(1), 19-30, (2001). [2] Z.L.Yag, J.Wag, S.Bosall, Q.G.Fag; Use of fuzzy evidetial reasoig i maritime security assessmet, Risk aalysis, 29(1), 95-120, (2009). [3] Balmat, Jea-Fracois, Lafot, Frederic, Maifret, Robert, Pessel, Nathalie; MAritime RISk Assessmet (MARISA), a fuzzy approach to defie a idividual ship risk factor. Ocea egieerig, 36(15-16), 1278-1286 (2009). [4] D.Zhag, X.P.Ya, J.X.Liu, X.M.Chu; Study of Grid-Based Collisio Risk Assessmet Model for Mai Route of the Yagtze River, Navigatio of Chia, 34(1), 44-47,53 (2011). [5] Miistry of Trasportatio of Chia; Cotigecy plas for Waterway trasportatio emergecies. (2009). [6] W.M.Dog, F.S.Wog; Fuzzy weighted averages ad implemetatio of the extesio priciple, Fuzzy Sets ad Systems, 21(2), 183-199 (1987). [7] T.S.Liou, M.J.J.Wag; Fuzzy weighted average: a improved algorithm. Fuzzy Sets ad Systems, 49(3), 307-315 (1992). [8] Y.Y.Guh, C.C.Ho, K.M.Wag, E.S.Lee; Fuzzy weighted average: A max-mi paired elimiatio method. Computers ad Mathematics with Applicatios, 32(8), 115-123 (1996). [9] C.H.Qia, L.Zhag, B.Dai, J.Z.Wag; Fuzzy Weighted Average with Triagular Fuzzy Numbers ad Its Applicatio to the Assessmet ad Decisio. Operatios Research ad Maagemet Sciece, 14(2), 5-9 (2005). [10] U.S.Departmet of Homelad Security; Target capabilities list A compaio to the atioal preparedess guidelies,[olie] Available; https://www.llis.dhs.gov/, (2007). [11] Coductig a commuity risk/ capability assessmet for the city of Tarpo Sprigs, Florida, [Olie] Available; http://www.usfa.fema.gov/, (2006). [12] N.Gao, G.Z.Nie, Y.Deg; Research o earthquake emergecy preparedess capability ad hazard coefficiet. Dizhe Dizhi, 35(4), 907-913 (2013). [13] V.Valdmais, P.Beret, J.Moises; Hospital capacity, capability, ad emergecy preparedess, Europea Joural of Operatioal Research, 207(3), 1628-1634 (2010). [14] I.Faisal Kha, Reha Sadiq; Risk-based prioritizatio of air pollutio moitorig usig fuzzy sythetic evaluatio techique. Evirometal Moitorig ad Assessmet, 105(1-3), 261 283 (2005). [15] X.W.Ji, W.G.Weg, S.J.Ni, W.C.Fa; Warig classificatio model for public emergecies, Joural of Tsighua Uiversity (Sciece ad Techology), 48(8), 1252-1255 (2008).