Climate Change and Offshore Wind in New York State

Climate Change and Offshore Wind in New York State Jeff Freedman Atmospheric Sciences Research Center University at Albany, State University of New York Photo simulation Jones Beach NY - courtesy UL - AWS Truepower Advanced Energy Conference, New York City 28 March 2018

The Climate System And Atmospheric Variability 2

The Climate System And Atmospheric Variability CLIMATE: [t]he slowly varying aspects of the atmosphere-hydrosphere land surface system...characterized in suitable averages of the climate system over periods of a month or more... (AMS Glossary 2000) 2

The Climate System And Atmospheric Variability CLIMATE: [t]he slowly varying aspects of the atmosphere-hydrosphere land surface system...characterized in suitable averages of the climate system over periods of a month or more... (AMS Glossary 2000) BUT: In a constantly perturbed climate system (increasing levels of CO2 --> global warming), variability becomes problematic. 2

The Climate System And Atmospheric Variability CLIMATE: [t]he slowly varying aspects of the atmosphere-hydrosphere land surface system...characterized in suitable averages of the climate system over periods of a month or more... (AMS Glossary 2000) BUT: In a constantly perturbed climate system (increasing levels of CO2 --> global warming), variability becomes problematic. ISSUE: How is the marine boundary layer wind profile affected when you factor in trends (what makes a trend?), climate signals (teleconnections do they interfere or re-enforce), and reference to long-term climate stations (what is a representative wind climatology?). 2

The Climate System And Atmospheric Variability CLIMATE: [t]he slowly varying aspects of the atmosphere-hydrosphere land surface system...characterized in suitable averages of the climate system over periods of a month or more... (AMS Glossary 2000) BUT: In a constantly perturbed climate system (increasing levels of CO2 --> global warming), variability becomes problematic. ISSUE: How is the marine boundary layer wind profile affected when you factor in trends (what makes a trend?), climate signals (teleconnections do they interfere or re-enforce), and reference to long-term climate stations (what is a representative wind climatology?). BIG QUESTION: How does atmospheric variability in all its flavors affect our characterization of the wind resource over the longer term? 2

Global T anomaly (degrees C) 0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 Temp. Anom. CO 2 CH 4 800K years Temperature anomaly (red dots above long-term mean) Atmospheric State Source: Scripps Institute, NOAA ESRL X Temperature Baseline: 1901 2000 CO2 (Keeling Curve) CH4 (Methane) CH4(ppb) 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 280 300 320 340 360 380 400 420 CO2(ppm) 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 Year

Decrease d T gradient Global Warming and Wind Hypothesis: leads to a reduction in the meridional thermal gradient (since higher latitudes experience greater warming) and hence the pressure gradient which drives the wind. N N warming Equator Question: how will (are) these large scale changes affect(ing) distribution of offshore wind in New York? 4

A few years ago

A few years ago Associated Press, Seth Borenstein: Not so windy: Research suggests winds dying down June 10, 2009 WASHINGTON The wind, a favorite power source of the green energy movement, seems to be dying down across the United States. And the cause, ironically, may be global warming the very problem wind power seeks to address.. It s a very large effect, said study co-author Eugene Takle, a professor of atmospheric science at Iowa State University. In some places in the Midwest, the trend shows a 10 percent drop or more over a decade. That adds up when the average wind speed in the region is about 10 to 12 miles per hour. There s been a jump in the number of low or no wind days in the Midwest, said the study s lead author, Sara Pryor, an atmospheric scientist at Indiana University.Jeff Freedman, an atmospheric scientist with AWS Truewind, an Albany, N.Y., renewable energy consulting firm, has studied the same topic.he said his research has found no definitive trend of reduced surface wind speed.one of the problems Pryor acknowledges with her study is that over many years, changing conditions near wind-measuring devices can skew data. If trees grow or buildings are erected near wind gauges, that could reduce speed measurements.

A few years ago Associated Press, Seth Borenstein: Not so windy: Research suggests winds dying down June 10, 2009 Or does it? My 2 { WASHINGTON The wind, a favorite power source of the green energy movement, seems to be dying down across the United States. And the cause, ironically, may be global warming the very problem wind power seeks to address.. It s a very large effect, said study co-author Eugene Takle, a professor of atmospheric science at Iowa State University. In some places in the Midwest, the trend shows a 10 percent drop or more over a decade. That adds up when the average wind speed in the region is about 10 to 12 miles per hour. There s been a jump in the number of low or no wind days in the Midwest, said the study s lead author, Sara Pryor, an atmospheric scientist at Indiana University.Jeff Freedman, an atmospheric scientist with AWS Truewind, an Albany, N.Y., renewable energy consulting firm, has studied the same topic.he said his research has found no definitive trend of reduced surface wind speed.one of the problems Pryor acknowledges with her study is that over many years, changing conditions near wind-measuring devices can skew data. If trees grow or buildings are erected near wind gauges, that could reduce speed measurements.

A few years ago Associated Press, Seth Borenstein: Not so windy: Research suggests winds dying down June 10, 2009 Or does it? My 2 { WASHINGTON The wind, a favorite power source of the green energy movement, seems to be dying down across the United States. And the cause, ironically, may be global warming the very problem wind power seeks to address.. It s a very large effect, said study co-author Eugene Takle, a professor of atmospheric science at Iowa State University. In some places in the Midwest, the trend shows a 10 percent drop or more over a decade. That adds up when the average wind speed in the region is about 10 to 12 miles per hour. There s been a jump in the number of low or no wind days in the Midwest, said the study s lead author, Sara Pryor, an atmospheric scientist at Indiana University.Jeff Freedman, an atmospheric scientist with AWS Truewind, an Albany, N.Y., renewable energy consulting firm, has studied the same topic.he said his research has found no definitive trend of reduced surface wind speed.one of the problems Pryor acknowledges with her study is that over many years, changing conditions near wind-measuring devices can skew data. If trees grow or buildings are erected near wind gauges, that could reduce speed measurements. Gotta read beyond the headlines

Offshore Wind Resource Courtesy UL-AWST 6

Potential Offshore Wind (OSW) Sites in NY From NYSERDA Clean Energy Cost Study (May 2016)

Potential Offshore Wind (OSW) Sites in NY ALSN6/44065 44025 From NYSERDA Clean Energy Cost Study (May 2016)

But first, historical trends Ambrose Light/Buoy 44065 Years with at least 8000 hourly records Trend: +0.21 m s -1

Buoy 44025 Years with at least 8000 hourly records Trend: +0.21 m s -1

Effects of Climate Change on Renewable Energy Distribution in New York State Sponsored by the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority Agreement #105161 UAlbany ASRC and DAES, UL-AWST, and MNI, Inc. To meet the REV goals, solar and wind energy production will need to increase ten-fold Thus, it is crucial that a high-resolution assessment of the potential influence of climate change on NY s integrated renewable energy resource is available for planning, policy, and development purposes 10

Fewer? More intense? Land - sea surface temperature gradient increase/decrease? 41.0 2 m Temperature And SLP For Composite Hour = 2000 GMT 1015 101 4.8 1015.6 Clifton NJ 4 1015. 4.8 40.8 Yonkers 1015.2NY Paterson NJ 101 4 January 2018 Nor easter GOES-16 Image (0.5 km res) 1812 UTC 300 1015.8 Newark NJJersey City NJ Elizabeth NJ 1016 New York NY.4 1016.2 1016 40.6 298 Edison NJ Latitude 6.6 40.4 101.8 1016 40.2 296 Brick NJ 294 1017 Hamilton NJ 40.0 Meteorological and climatological influences (mesoscale): strengthen/weaken sea breezes; offshore low-level jet synoptic scale: frequency of frontal passages, low/high pressure systems, intensity/persistence of surface pressure gradients (do we have more/fewer storms, more intense/ weaker storms?) 74.4 74.2 74.0 73.8 73.6 73.4 73.2 R:/Users/jfreedman/DATA/SEABREEZE/ANALYSIS/CompositeimageplotT.func( 74.5 73.2 40 41 20 70 ) Thu Jul 29 14:08:11 2010 Longitude 11

High Resolution Climate Modeling Perform dynamic downscaling of the selected CMIP5 models in WRF for 3 periods: Nested grids for model runs Δx = 36 km 1. historical (1998-2017) 2. near-future (2018-2035) Δx = 12 km 3. mid-future (2036-2055) Variables of interest: Δx = 4 km Surface (10 m) and hub height (80m, 100 m, and 120 m) wind speed and direction surface irradiance precipitation 12

Generally, average annual higher wind speeds are found as we go further offshore. But, under sea breeze/ offshore low-level jet conditions...

About the sea breeze! d in w o N Generally, average annual higher wind speeds are found as we go further offshore. But, under sea breeze/ offshore low-level jet conditions... speed/direction arrows every 24 km

Sea breeze days better for load matching than onshore wind Offshore CF Onshore CF

Heat Index (degrees F) Load (MW) 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 Heat Index versus Peak Load, NYC (2008 2012) Polynomial Fit: Max r 2(poly) Heat Index Versus Max Load = 0.4736 Red dates represent points where HI > 95, Load > 10,000 MW, and Sea Breeze Intensity > 7 m/s 6/10/2008 7/6/2010 7/18/2012 6/9/2008 7/21/2011 7/7/2010 7/19/2010 6/21/2012 7/16/2010 Heat Index Equation 6/9/2011 6/29/2012 6/20/2012 Sea Breeze Intensity = V component of Wind 7/22/2011 HI = Heat Index T = Temperature RH = Relative Humidity HI = 42.379 + 2.049015T + 10.14333RH 0.2247554TRH 6.8378310 3 T 2 5.48171710 2 RH 2 + 1.2287410 3 T 2 RH + 8.528210 4 TRH 2 1.9910 6 T 2 RH 2 Highest peak loads on sea breeze days 80 85 90 95 100 105 110

RCP: 80 m Wind Speed Representative Concentration Pathways The Future? RCP4.5 2020 2055 Long Island RCP8.5 2020 2055

RCP: 80 m Wind Speed Representative Concentration Pathways The Future? RCP4.5 2020 2055 Long Island This is just the CMIP5 Model/ Ensemble not downscaled! CMIP5: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project [Phase 5]) RCP8.5 2020 2055

http://www.nysmesonet.org Nick Bassill NYSM New York State Mesonet 126 surface stations (standard) 17 Profiler (LiDAR, Radiometer) 17 Flux (H, LE, CO 2, Rn) 20 Snow depth Wantagh

Wantagh, NY Seabreeze (10 April 2017)

Wantagh, NY Seabreeze (10 April 2017)

Wantagh, NY Seabreeze (10 April 2017)

Wantagh, NY Seabreeze (10 April 2017) 10 minutes hub height winds go from 4 to 17 m s -1!

Thank You! jfreedman@albany.edu 19