TULANE NATIONAL BASEBALL ARBITRATION COMPETITION 2012 NELSON CRUZ, PLAYER V. TEXAS RANGERS, TEAM BRIEF FOR TEXAS RANGERS, TEAM Team no. 27 Representatives of Texas Rangers, Team
INTRODUCTION Nelson Cruz is a valuable member of the Texas Rangers ballclub. In his second year of arbitration eligibility, Cruz (30) is somewhat older than the average player at that point in his career. Despite being a late bloomer, Cruz has produced good power numbers and has made a particularly strong name for himself in the baseball world with his postseason performances during the team s back-to-back American League ( AL ) Pennant runs. However, Cruz has not gotten on base consistently. Although he was in the top 30 in the Major Leagues in 2011 for slugging percentage, he did not crack the top 50 in batting average or on-base percentage ( OBP ). 1 In addition, due to injuries, Cruz played in only 124 of the Rangers 162 games in 2011, continuing a yearly trend of Cruz missing games because of various injuries. 2 He is more injury-prone than the average player, as evidenced by several stints on the disabled list and the fact that the injuries have been substantially similar to each other (each has been a problem with Cruz s upper leg). 3 He even had to leave Game Six of the 2011 World Series (albeit in the 11th inning) with a strained groin. 4 Game Six also illustrated another reason why Cruz, while a very good baseball player, is not among the game s elite and provides less value to the Rangers than some similarly situated players around the league. In Game Six, he hit a record-tying eighth home run for the postseason 1 Statistics: Sortable Player, Major League Baseball, http://tinyurl.com/6n9aqxe 2 Nelson Cruz Player Profile, The Baseball Cube, http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?p=nelson- Cruz-1 3 Nelson Cruz in 2012, Roto Hardball, http://www.rotohardball.com/2011/11/10/2551634/nelson-cruz-in-2012 4 Shawn S. Lelos, Injury Update: Nelson Cruz Leaves Game 6 of World Series with Strained Groin, Yahoo! Sports, http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ycn-10309105
to pad the Rangers lead in the 7 th inning. 5 But his poor defense later cost Texas the game and, ultimately, the World Championship. In the bottom of the ninth inning, leading by two runs with two outs already in the books, the Rangers had two strikes on the St. Louis Cardinals David Freese and with a 3-2 lead in the World Series, one more strike would have ended the season and given Texas its first MLB title in franchise history. 6 Freese lifted a catchable line drive toward Cruz in right field, but Cruz misplayed the ball and allowed a game-tying triple. 7 The next time Freese came to the plate, he hit a walk-off home run to give the Cardinals a victory, which they would follow up with a win in Game Seven to end the Rangers title hopes. 8 In recognition of Cruz s career contributions, the Rangers have offered Cruz a $4.7 million contract for the 2012 Major League Baseball ( MLB ) season. Cruz has asked for a $5.3 million. In demonstrating that the club s offer is reasonable, fair, and the more appropriate compensation for Cruz in 2012, this brief will discuss (1) Cruz s career offensive contributions relative to comparable players in the same service class, (2) Cruz s lengthy injury history and durability concerns, and (3) Cruz s defensive liabilities. ARGUMENT I. Cruz s overall offensive performance, compared to other second-year arbitration eligible outfielders, does not merit a salary over $5 million. Cruz has mostly built his reputation on his postseason performance. In terms of power, the numbers bear that out: in 2011 he tied an MLB record with eight home runs, six of which came 5 Box Score: Cardinals 10, Rangers 9, Major League Baseball, http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2011_10_27_texmlb_slnmlb_1&mode=box&c_id=stl; See also Jeff Caplan, Nelson Cruz s Homeruns Forgotten in Loss, ESPN Dallas, http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas/texasrangers/post/_/id/4875603/nelson-cruzs-home-runs-forgotten-in-loss 6 Tom Verducci, Cruz s Unforgivable Defensive Gaffe Proves Costly to Rangers, Sports Illustrated, http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/tom_verducci/10/28/cards.rangers.game6/index.html 7 Id. 8 See, e.g., Caplan, supra note 5.
in the American League Championship Series ( ALCS ). 9 However, his overall playoff numbers serve as a microcosm for Cruz s limitations as well. He is a feast-or-famine hitter, often failing to get on base at all if he does not hit for extra bases. For the 2011 postseason overall, he had only four singles to go with his 10 extra-base hits; he hit only.224 for the playoffs and struck out 14 times. 10 In addition, after helping the Rangers reach the World Series, he floundered in the Series itself, going 5-for-25 for a.200 batting average. 11 This dichotomy between high power and low consistency is apparent throughout Cruz s platform year (2011) and his career to this point. The Rangers offer of $4.7 million is fair and reasonable in light of Cruz s offensive inconsistency. The midpoint figure in this negotiation is $5 million. Carlos Quentin offers a helpful comparison. Quentin signed a one-year, $5.05 million deal for 2011 with the Chicago White Sox in his second year of arbitration eligibility. 12 In his platform year (2010), Quentin had largely similar numbers to Cruz s 2011 statistics. However, Quentin had a significantly higher OBP at.342 as compared to Cruz s.312, and his strikeout-towalk ratio ( K/BB ratio ) was an excellent 83/50 whereas Cruz had a much rougher 116/33 ratio. 13 While it s true Cruz had a higher slugging percentage such that the two players on-baseplus-slugging ( OPS ) were the same at 821, that is largely explained by Cruz having just three more doubles and three more home runs than Quentin. 14 Further, Quentin s much greater ability to draw walks and avoid strikeouts is borne out over his entire career as well: through 2010, his K/BB ratio was 303/180 to Cruz s career ratio of 462/167 over 150 more strikeouts and 13 9 Caplan, supra note 5 10 Id. 11 Id. 12 Carlos Quentin Player Profile, The Baseball Cube, http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?p=carlos-quentin 13 Id.; Cruz Profile, supra note 2. 14 Id.
fewer walks. 15 Because Quentin has more overall value as an offensive player than Cruz, Cruz should receive a lower salary than Quentin did. Quentin s second-year-eligible contract was for a mere $50,000 more than the midpoint of this arbitration, so Cruz deserves a salary less than $5 million. A strikeout is the worst possible result for a hitter (aside from hitting into a double play). Not only does it cost the team an out, but it fails to even force the defense to make a play to get him out and forecloses the possibility of a productive out that is, a strikeout cannot advance a runner or drive in a run the way an out on a ball in play can. That is why K/BB ratio is such an important indicator of a player s value on offense: more walks and fewer strikeouts means more discipline at the plate and therefore more consistency. In 2011, Cruz struck out more than three times for each walk he took, recording 116K/33BB. 16 No comparable player comes close to such a lopsided ratio. In their platform years, Hunter Pence had a 105/42 ratio (2010); 17 Delmon Young had an 81/28 ratio (2010); 18 Luke Scott had a 104/55 ratio (2009); 19 and, as noted above, Carlos Quentin in 2010 posted an excellent 83 strikeouts to 50 walks. With most other statistics being substantially similar, Cruz s value as an offensive player is therefore lower than the offensive values of these comparable players. As such, while Pence, Young, and Quentin all received one-year contracts over this arbitration s midpoint of $5 million (Scott s was well below at $4.05 million), Cruz deserves less than $5 million. 20 II. Cruz s injuries and advanced age have led him to be less durable than comparable players, such that Cruz should receive $4.7 million. 15 Id. 16 Cruz Profile, supra note 2 17 Hunter Pence Player Profile, The Baseball Cube, http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?p=/hunterpence.shtml 18 Delmon Young Player Profile, The Baseball Cube, http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?p=delmon-young 19 Luke Scott Player Profile, The Baseball Cube, http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/profile.asp?p=luke-scott 20 All contract figures from player profiles on The Baseball Cube, supra notes 12, 17, 18, & 19
The comparisons of Hunter Pence and Luke Scott in their second-year-eligible platform years provide a useful barometer for the going rate where older, oft-injured outfielders are concerned. Pence ended up with a contract well over the midpoint of this arbitration indeed, well over what Cruz is asking after his 2010 season for the Houston Astros. His one year deal was for $6.7 million. 21 In 2010, Pence was 27 years old and played in 156 of the Astros 162 games. 22 In the 2011 season, Cruz was 30 years old and appeared in only 124 games for the Rangers (missing 38). 23 As such, a better comparison than Pence is Luke Scott, who in 2009 (the platform year for his second round in arbitration) was 31 years old and played in 128 games for the Baltimore Orioles. 24 Scott signed a one-year contract for $4.05 million for the 2010 season, 25 well below what the Rangers are offering in this arbitration. As the following table illustrates, these three players had substantially similar platform-year statistics aside from Pence s youth and ability to stay healthy as compared to Scott s and Cruz s age and propensity for injury; indeed, by some measures Scott s performance was better than Pence s, indicating a premium in the market on players durability. Name 26 Year Age Games BA OPS HR K/BB Cruz 2011 30 124.263 821 29 116/33 Pence 2010 27 156.282 786 25 105/41 Scott 2009 31 131.258 828 25 104/55 21 Pence Profile, supra note 17 22 Id. 23 Cruz Profile, supra note 2 24 Scott Profile, supra note 19 25 Id. 26 All statistics in table from player profiles on The Baseball Cube, supra notes 2, 17, & 19
Despite having the same number of home runs, a better OPS, and a better K/BB ratio than Pence, Scott s salary in his second year of arbitration eligibility was over two and a half million dollars lower than Pence s. 27 It is true that Pence had a significantly higher batting average than both Scott and Cruz, but the only other factors where Pence has better numbers are age and games played. Further, Pence was not only durable in 2010 but played 157 games in 2008 and 159 in 2009; he was very healthy for his entire career leading up to his platform year. 28 These numbers, and the contracts that resulted from them, indicate that outfielders who are older and who have shown more propensity to spend time on the disabled list ( DL ) command less money on the market than younger, healthier players. As such, Scott is a particularly helpful comparison for Cruz. Cruz hit only four more home runs than Scott, batted five points higher, had a worse OPS and a worse K/BB ratio; yet the Rangers have offered almost $700,000 more than Scott s contract was worth at the same point in his career. As such, the Rangers offer is very reasonable. Cruz s repeated stints on the DL have hampered his value by preventing him from playing. Missing roughly 23% of the 2011 season was not an aberration, but rather a continuation of a trend throughout Cruz s career. In fact, the 124 games he played for Texas in 2011 was the second most he has ever managed to play in a single MLB season (128 games in 2009). 29 In the 2009 and 2010 seasons combined, Cruz appeared in only 236 of a possible 324 games 30 meaning he was available for a total of 73% of its games. The Rangers have a legitimate concern that Cruz s injury issues will continue, as he consistently suffers the same type of injury: he cannot seem to keep his legs healthy, and many of his recent leg injuries have 27 Pence and Scott player profiles, supra notes 17 & 19 28 Pence Player Profile, supra note 17 29 Cruz Profile, supra note 2 30 Aaron Gleeman, Nelson Cruz Altering Running Style to Avoid Hamstring Injuries, NBC Sports Hardball Talk, http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/01/24/nelson-cruz-altering-running-style-to-avoid-hamstring-injuries/
been muscle problems. 31 After an ankle injury in 2009, 32 Cruz was on the DL three separate times in 2010 with hamstring injuries and twice again in 2011 (first with a quadriceps injury early in the season, then with a hamstring problem in August). 33 Cruz s injury history, combined with the market s clear preference for players who stay healthy, militate against awarding him a salary above $5 million. III. Cruz s defense in the outfield is a liability, reducing his overall value to the club. The David Freese line drive alluded to above essentially cost the Rangers the 2011World Championship. For all his power hitting in the postseason, there is no denying that Cruz s defensive limitations hurt the team badly. Freese s hit didn t bounce off the top of the right field wall; it ricocheted off the base, meaning it was certainly catchable. 34 In the situation, with two men on base, a two run lead, and two outs, it is universally recognized that outfielders should be playing deep in no doubles defense. The idea is to make absolutely sure that if a ball goes over the outfielder s head, it is a home run; keeping the ball in front of him allows the outfielder to stop the tying run from scoring even if the lead runner scores. According to one observer, Cruz was not playing deep enough in that ninth inning in St Louis. 35 Cruz himself agreed with that assessment. 36 However, according to Rangers coach Gary Pettis and manager Ron Washington, Cruz was in fact playing deep enough. 37 If that is the case, the misplay of the ball was even more problematic as a reflection of Cruz s defensive prowess. According to Washington, If he just 31 Nelson Cruz in 2012, supra note 3 32 Gleeman, supra note 29 33 Nelson Cruz in 2012, supra note 3 34 Verducci, supra note 6 35 Id. 36 Id. 37 Id.
takes the right route it's an easy out. You've got to stay behind the baseball and he didn't. I thought it was going to be caught. It didn't turn out that way. 38 Additionally, the Game Six miscue that allowed the Cardinals to stay alive and ultimately win the World Series was not Cruz s only fielding miscue on the game s biggest stage. He also slid feet first into a catchable ball, resulting in a hit, in the Cardinals Game One win. 39 These misplayed outfield chances were not merely random instances of bad luck or chance; they naturally followed from Cruz s performance in right field in 2011. There are very few statistical measures of an outfielder s defensive value. As the two World Series plays described above illustrate, even when outfielders make mistakes they are rarely technically classified as errors. However, there is one statistic kept that attempts to assign an overall value to a fielder: it is called ultimate zone rating (UZR), and its purpose is to show how many runs a fielder saved or cost his team relative to the average fielder. 40 While it is admittedly an imperfect statistic, it is the best available for rating an outfielder s worth. In 2011, Cruz had an overall UZR of -7.9, meaning he cost the Rangers 7.9 runs in the field as compared to an average outfielder. 41 When counting only his games in right field (Cruz s main position), his UZR was an even worse -9.3. 42 As such, Cruz s defense significantly reduced his value to the club. CONCLUSION Nelson Cruz has been a valuable member of the Texas Rangers since becoming a Major League player. His power hitting, especially in the playoffs, has helped the club reach the highest 38 Id. 39 Hal Singer, World Series Metldown, Moneyball, and Ron Washington, Hal Singer Wordpress, http://haljsinger.wordpress.com/2011/10/31/world-series-meltdown-moneyball-and-ron-washington/ 40 Id. 41 Nelson Cruz Player Page, FanGraphs, http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2434&position=of#fielding 42 Id.
point in its history with two straight American League pennants. However, his limitations have also been partially responsible for the Rangers inability to take that final step and become World Champions. As compared to other similarly situated players from the past couple of years, Cruz is not as consistent at the plate as comparable players who have made more than this arbitration s midpoint of $5 million. His high number of strikeouts and low number of walks shows a lack of plate discipline that hindered his value. In addition, Cruz has not been healthy enough to play in enough games to warrant a salary of $5.3 million. In each of his full Major League seasons, injuries have forced him to miss at least 34 games; in the past two years alone, he has made five trips to the DL. As comparisons to the second-year eligible cases of Hunter Pence and Luke Scott illustrate, all else being equal the market bears higher salaries for players who can avoid injuries. Finally, even when healthy Cruz s play in the outfield reduced his value to the club by costing the team runs and his defensive deficiencies were particularly acute in the World Series. Because of the foregoing, the Texas Rangers ballclub urges the arbitrator to award Nelson Cruz the very reasonable salary of $4.7 million.