PowerS picks $10 Volume 4 Issue 5 September 1-5, 2016 2016 BP Sports, LLC Five Week 1 College Football Best Bets on Page 3! Last Year All CFB Best Bets Went 61-44-1 (58%)! BP Sports Not Your Typical Service As we enter year two of BP Sports, we thought it was the perfect time to continue to grow our brand, develop new contacts and ideas and expand our resources. First, we had an opportunity to visit Las Vegas this past May and had numerous meetings with Sports Book directors, some of the biggest bettors in the industry and also some of the best handicappers in the world. These types of interactions will happen weekly during the football and basketball seasons and hopefully continue to give us an added edge over the competition. We firmly believe that with sports gambling becoming more popular and relevant with each passing year, you have to understand the betting markets that much more and not just solely rely on your gut instinct when it comes to games/plays. Another reason for the move was the BP Sports branding factor. While you are now familiar with the service and we continue to add new customers every week, the reality is we want to be the biggest, the most profitable and the most recognizable service in the industry while also maintaining that mom-and-pop store feel when it comes to customer service. Similar to a stock broker or real estate mogul wanting to be the best in their industry, therefore they would head to New York; In this industry, if you want to be the best, you head to Las Vegas and that s where we are! While we won t get in to the complete specifics at this point, you ll also be seeing BP Sports associated with Pregame.com, this upcoming football season. I ll be providing some content while also doing weekly radio and TV spots with them. I often mention that there are a lot of great services out there that are worth a look. However, when your life and future continues to be on the line, you better win. When you bet your own games like I do (many handicappers don t bet their own plays), you better win. Quite frankly, I don t handicap with monopoly money like other services (see all the tickets)! When you can t afford to rest on past laurels and successes from seasons in the 1980s and 1990s, you better win. Finally, when you want to make a good impression and gain a long-term customer, you better win! Clearly winning cures everything and losing is not an option for me in any year!! Overall, we hope you ve enjoyed these newsletters so far and we ll certainly only get bigger and better with each passing season. Brad Powers Brad Powers Watch Brad Powers give his FREE picks each week at pregame.com 2016 Updated CFB Power Ratings (also Vegas Ratings) Since the release of my initial power ratings back in late July, there has been some movement in my ratings due to injuries, transfers and suspensions. Below are some updated power ratings for all 128 teams. Rk Team Rating Rk Team 1 Alabama 95.47 2 Clemson 94.58 3 LSU 94.32 4 Oklahoma 93.86 5 Florida State 93.32 6 Tennessee 91.94 7 Michigan 89.95 8 Ohio State 89.60 9 Stanford 89.38 10 Ole Miss 89.31 11 Washington 88.95 12 Notre Dame 87.51 13 USC 86.24 14 UCLA 86.15 15 Michigan State 85.53 16 Louisville 85.44 17 Oregon 85.42 18 Georgia 85.29 19 Baylor 84.95 20 TCU 84.86 21 North Carolina 84.79 22 Oklahoma State 84.70 23 Florida 84.68 24 Arkansas 84.66 25 Texas A&M 84.32 26 Miami (FL) 83.94 27 Auburn 83.78 28 Texas 83.42 29 Iowa 83.32 30 Nebraska 83.05 31 Mississippi St 82.28 32 Pittsburgh 81.81 33 Wisconsin 80.95 34 Houston 80.85 35 Boise State 80.80 36 Penn State 79.97 37 Utah 79.94 38 Virginia Tech 79.90 39 West Virginia 79.53 40 Washington St 79.35 41 BYU 78.80 42 South Florida 78.44 43 Northwestern 77.73 44 Arizona State 77.69 45 NC State 77.16 46 Arizona 77.11 47 San Diego State 76.91 48 Georgia Tech 76.88 49 Kansas State 76.42 50 California 76.23 51 Texas Tech 75.33 52 Minnesota 75.31 53 Boston College 74.78 54 Missouri 74.77 55 Western Mich 74.10 56 Duke 73.90 57 Cincinnati 73.40 58 Temple 73.33 59 Colorado 73.19 60 WKU 73.15 61 Indiana 73.13 62 Vanderbilt 73.03 63 South Carolina 72.43 64 Virginia 71.94 65 Air Force 71.63 66 Appalachian St 71.28 67 Kentucky 71.27 68 Memphis 71.12 69 Toledo 70.79 70 Wake Forest 70.63 71 Marshall 70.48 72 Northern Illinois 69.75 73 Syracuse 69.60 74 Maryland 69.55 75 Navy 69.54 76 Iowa State 69.45 77 Ga Southern 69.18 78 Illinois 68.89 79 Central Mich 68.68 80 Arkansas State 68.51 81 Connecticut 68.10 82 Southern Miss 68.01 83 Rutgers 67.62 84 Bowling Green 67.50 85 Purdue 67.38 86 Utah State 67.35 Rating Rk Team Rating 87 Middle Tenn 66.43 88 Oregon State 65.80 89 Tulsa 65.57 90 Nevada 64.78 91 Louisiana Tech 64.51 92 San Jose State 64.48 93 New Mexico 64.27 94 East Carolina 63.87 95 Ohio 63.08 96 Colorado State 62.36 97 SMU 61.02 98 Akron 60.51 99 Troy 60.49 100 Florida Atlantic 60.35 101 Fresno State 59.79 102 UCF 59.61 103 Kansas 59.57 104 Kent State 59.49 105 UL-Lafayette 59.37 106 Army 58.38 107 Old Dominion 58.30 108 UNLV 58.23 109 Rice 58.03 110 Wyoming 57.66 111 Miami (OH) 57.37 112 Buffalo 57.05 113 FIU 56.82 114 Georgia State 56.78 115 Ball State 56.54 116 UTEP 55.83 117 Idaho 54.86 118 Hawaii 54.43 119 Tulane 53.68 120 South Alabama 53.55 121 Eastern Mich 53.32 122 UTSA 52.78 123 New Mexico St 51.91 124 Charlotte 51.45 125 Massachusetts 50.16 126 North Texas 49.66 127 Texas State 49.17 128 ULM 48.66 There should be no surprise at who tops my initial power ratings as the defending National Champs are No. 1 in my preseason ratings heading into 2016. While the Crimson Tide do have some major question marks at QB and RB, they have signed my No. 1 recruiting class in the country for each of the last 5 years. Quite simply, they have the most talented roster and are coached by one of the greatest in the history of the game. These power ratings of mine are basically a Vegas rating as I would favor Alabama by at least one point over any other team in the country. It's tough making the Crimson Tide an underdog in any situation. They've only been an underdog once in the last 6 years and they hammered Georgia 38-10 (+2.5) in Athens last year in that role. However, the gap is a little closer this year between the Tide and the rest of the country. Last year's No. 2 team, Clemson could be even better in 2016 thanks to 8 returning starters on offense. They are led by the best QB in the country in DeShaun Watson who became the first player in CFB history to throw for more than 4,000 yards and run for more than 1,000 yards in a season (did play 15 games). The Tigers will have stiff competition in their own division as Florida State is also a Top 5 team with 17 returning starters. Remember the Seminoles get Clemson at home on October 29 (FSU is 11-1 vs Clemson in the last 12 meetings in Tallahassee).
College Football Schedules with Vegas and Brad Powers Lines Week 1 September 1st-5th Thursday, September 1st Line BP All Times Eastern Saturday, September 3rd Open BP All Times Eastern 133 INDIANA -9-8 199 FRESNO ST 62 62 7:30 p.m. ESPNU 8:00 p.m. Big Ten 134 FIU 61 62 200 NEBRASKA -28.5-28 135 CHARLOTTE 59.5 58 136 LOUISVILLE -39.5-38 137 TULANE 43 40 138 WAKE FOREST -17-14 139 RICE 63 61 8:00 p.m. CBS College 140 WKU -16-15 141 SOUTH CAROLINA 42.5 37 8:00 p.m. ESPN 142 VANDERBILT -4.5-3 143 OREGON ST 55.5 47 9:00 p.m. Big Ten 144 MINNESOTA -13-7 189 APPALACHIAN ST 59 58 7:30 p.m. SEC Network 190 TENNESSEE -20.5-24 Friday, September 2nd Line BP 145 BALL ST 52.5 52 146 GEORIGA ST -3.5-4 147 ARMY 46.5 43 CBS College 148 TEMPLE -16-17 149 COLORADO ST 56.5 52 8:00 p.m. @Denver, Co ESPN 150 COLORADO -8-10 151 KANSAS ST 47.5 46 9:00 p.m. Fox Sports 1 152 STANFORD -15.5-14 179 TOLEDO 64.5 65 9:00 p.m. ESPNU 180 ARKANSAS ST -3.5-3 Saturday, September 3rd Line BP 153 GEORGIA TECH -3-1 7:30 a.m. @Dublin, Ireland ESPN2 154 BOSTON COLLEGE 44 41 155 HAWAII 54.5 62 12:00 p.m. ESPN 156 MICHIGAN -40.5-42 157 MIAMI, OH 51.5 51 3:30 p.m. ESPNU 158 IOWA -27.5-25 159 WESTERN MICHIGAN 52 51 12:00 p.m. ESPNU 160 NORTHWESTERN -5-3 161 BOWLING GREEN 63.5 62 12:00 p.m. Big Ten 162 OHIO ST -27.5-28 163 KENT ST 45 48 3:30 p.m. Big Ten 164 PENN ST -21.5-28 165 MISSOURI 50.5 48 12:00 p.m. FOX Sports 1 166 WEST VIRGINIA -10-8 167 NEW MEXICO ST 60 58 8:00 p.m. 168 UTEP -9-10 169 SMU -9.5-7 170 NORTH TEXAS 68.5 67 171 SOUTH ALABAMA 55 54 12:00 p.m. SEC Network 172 MISSISSIPPI ST -28.5-28 173 TEXAS ST 60 60 3:30 p.m. CBS College 174 OHIO -21-20 175 SOUTHERN MISS 63.5 62 7:30 p.m. ESPNU 176 KENTUCKY -6.5-6 177 LOUISIANA TECH 53.5 50 4:00 p.m. SEC Network 178 ARKANSAS -26-24 181 MASSACHUSETTS 50.5 58 7:30 p.m. SEC Network 182 FLORIDA -36-38 183 CLEMSON -7.5-6 9:00 p.m. ESPN 184 AUBURN 62 62 185 UCLA 53.5 50 3:30 p.m. CBS 186 TEXAS A&M -3-4 187 SAN JOSE ST 70 72 CBS College 188 TULSA -5-12 191 RUTGERS 55 51 2:00 p.m. Pac-12 192 WASHINGTON -26.5-24 193 LSU -10-10 3:30 p.m. @Green Bay, WI ABC 194 WISCONSIN 44.5 44 195 NORTH CAROLINA 56 57 5:30 p.m. @Atlanta, GA ESPN 196 GEORGIA -3-3 197 OKLAHOMA -11-14 12:00 p.m. @NRG Stadium ABC 198 HOUSTON 68 68 201 USC 54 44 8:00 p.m. @Arlington, TX ABC 202 ALABAMA -11.5-18 203 BOISE ST -20-13 12:00 p.m. 204 UL-LAFAYETTE 63.5 61 205 BYU 60.5 69 10:30 p.m. @Glendale, AZ Fox Sports 1 206 ARIZONA -1-1 207 NORTHERN ILLINOIS -10-8 10:30 p.m. CBS College 208 WYOMING 55 54 Sunday, September 4th Open BP 209 NOTRE DAME -3.5 59 7:30 p.m. ABC 210 TEXAS 60-3 Monday, September 5th Open BP 211 OLE MISS 57 52 8:00 p.m. @Orlando, FL ESPN 212 FLORIDA ST -4.5-4 FBS vs FCS Matchups Lines Courtesy of 5Dimes.eu Thursday, September 1st Spread 231 Presbyterian 232 Central Michigan -30.5 233 Tennessee-Martin 234 Cincinnati -28.5 235 Maine 236 Connecticut -27.5 237 William & Mary 238 NC State -22 239 Southern Utah 240 Utah -28.5 241 Weber State 242 Utah State -22 243 South Dakota 244 New Mexico -16 245 Montana State 246 Idaho -10.5 247 Jackson State 248 UNLV -37.5 Friday, September 2nd Spread 249 Mississippi Valley St 250 Eastern Michigan -42 251 Albany 252 Buffalo -24.5 253 Colgate 254 Syracuse -28 255 Furman 256 Michigan State -41.5 257 Northwestern State 258 Baylor -47 259 Cal Poly 260 Nevada -16 Saturday, September 3rd Spread 263 Fordham 264 Navy -26.5 265 Eastern Kentucky 266 Purdue -16.5 267 Howard 268 Maryland -46.5 269 Liberty 270 Virginia Tech -28.5 271 Villanova 272 Pittsburgh -26 273 Abilene Christian 274 Air Force -39.5 275 Richmond 276 Virginia -12 283 Southern Illinois 284 Florida Atlantic -8.5 2 285 Hampton 286 Old Dominion -27.5 287 NC Central 288 Duke -33.5 289 Western Carolina 290 East Carolina -17 291 Florida A&M 292 Miami Florida -53 293 Savannah State 294 Georgia Southern -54.5 295 Austin Peay 296 Troy -39 297 VMI 298 Akron -30 299 Alabama A&M 300 Middle Tennessee -43.5 301 Towson 302 South Florida -30.5 303 South Carolina State 304 Central Florida -22 305 Rhode Island 306 Kansas -29 309 Alabama State 310 Texas San Antonio -28.5 311 Southern 312 UL Monroe -16.5 313 Northern Iowa 314 Iowa State -8 315 Stephen F Austin 316 Texas Tech -37.5 317 South Dakota State 318 TCU -30.5 321 New Hampshire 322 San Diego State -32.5 323 Northern Arizona 324 Arizona State -25 325 Murray State 326 Illinois -35 327 UC Davis 328 Oregon -45 329 SE Louisiana 330 Oklahoma State -45.5 331 SE Missouri St 332 Memphis -33.5 333 Eastern Washington 334 Washington State -23.5 Want Every FBS vs FCS Pick? Get CFB VIP Service for the year! (Includes Every CFB H-Rated Play): Just $499 FCS Picks Went 7-1 (88%) last year!!! Call 440-787-6614!
4H = BEST 3H = BETTER 2H = GOOD 1H = FAIR THE POWERS PACK 3H TULSA (-5) over San Jose St (Sat) 3H UL-LAFAYETTE (+20) over Boise St (Sat) 2H Oregon St (+13) over MINNESOTA (Thu) 2H Alabama (-11) over Usc (Sat) 2H TEXAS (+3.5) over Notre Dame (Sun) Games in Rotation Order HOME TEAM IN CAPS Thursday, September 1st Indiana 35 FIU 27. Last year s 36-22 (-7.5) win for IU was misleading as FIU was going for the game-tying TD with under 4:00 left. However, IU got a 96-yard interception return for a TD to seal the game. The Hoosiers have some rebuilding to do on offense as they lost QB Nate Sudfeld and RB Jordan Howard to the NFL. They do return a 1,000-yard rusher in Devine Redding and their top 3 WR s. The defense returns their top 5 tacklers but they ve struggled mightily on that side of the ball in the Kevin Wilson era. On the other side, FIU returns 15 starters and this should be Ron Turner s best team yet (although it may not show in the W/L column). Pass. LOUISVILLE 48 Charlotte 10. In their only game against a Power 5 team in school history, Charlotte lost 58-10 (+24) to Kentucky last year. The very next week Louisville would rally to beat that same Kentucky team by a couple of TD s. That s not good news for the 49ers here. Charlotte is much improved from last year s inaugural season in the FBS thanks to 16 returning starters but Louisville is also improved from last season and has 17 returning starters. Louisville QB Lamar Jackson is a player to watch this season. Charlotte was 0-5-1 ATS as a 2-TD or more underdog while Louisville is 3-0 ATS laying 3 TD s or more under Petrino. Despite the technicals, we re not interested in laying near 40-point spreads. Pass. WAKE FOREST 27 Tulane 13. The Green Wave are very inexperienced on offense especially at QB where none of the returning players have even attempted a pass in college. They re changing to more of a spread option offense under new head coach Willie Fritz, who is a great hire, but it could be a struggle this season. On the other side, Wake Forest returns 15 starters and this is Dave Clawson s best team yet. However, this is the first time Wake Forest has laid double-digits to an FBS opponent since 2009 and their offense has only averaged 17.3 ppg the last 4 seasons. WESTERN KENTUCKY 38 Rice 23. Last year the Hilltoppers rolled the Owls 49-10 (-7.5) on the road. While WKU returns 8 starters from on offense including their top 4 rushers, top 2 receivers and 131 career starts on the OL, they do have to replace the school s all-time leading passer Brandon Doughty (12,855 yards). On the other side, Rice should be much improved after a disappointing 5-7 season. They have 16 returning starters. Technicals do favor the Hilltoppers who are 6-2 ATS laying double-digits the last 2 years while Rice is just 1-4-1 ATS as an away dog their last 6. However, this line is too steep for our liking. Pass. VANDERBILT 20 South Carolina 17. The Gamecocks have won 7 straight in the series but they ve gone 3-6 ATS in the last 9. Last year they won 19-10 (-1.5) as it was the first game without head coach Steve Spurrier who resigned during the week. This year they have a new head coach in Will Muschamp and it looks like a rebuilding year as they return only 9 starters and haven t figured out the QB position. On the other side, Vandy returns 14 starters and this is Derek Mason s best team yet. Last year s team had one of the most improved defenses in the country as they allowed only 21 ppg (12 ppg less than 2014). However, their offense has averaged just 16.2 ppg the last 2 years. We ll pass on the side and lean with the UNDER as the two teams are 6-2-1 ATS to the UNDER in their last 9 meetings averaging just 38 total ppg. Vandy home games averaged only 33 total ppg last year and Muschamp will have the South Carolina defense much improved. 2H Oregon St (plus the points) MINNESOTA 27 Oregon St 20. While he technically has been the interim head coach for several games filling in for Jerry Kill, new Minny HC Tracy Claeys enters his first full season. The Gophers did go 5-1 ATS in the 6 games he coached last year and look even better this year. On the other side, there s only one way to go for the Beavers who bottomed out at 2-10 SU/3-9 ATS in Gary Andersen s first season. The Golden Gophers are just 1-4 ATS laying double-digits their last 5 and they ve only laid double-digits one time in the last 10 years vs a Power 5 conference opponent (2013, they were -12 vs Purdue and only won by 1 point). Also, they will be playing without their leading rusher Shannon Brooks and 2 of their top 3 WR s are also doubtful. We like the dog and the UNDER. TENNESSEE 41 Appalachian St 17. Appalachian St is on a 17-2 SU run under head coach Scott Satterfield and are off an impressive 11-2 season. They have 15 returning starters and are the most talented team in the Sun Belt this year. Speaking of talent, this is arguably the most talented and experienced Tennessee team in at least a decade. They have 17 returning starters and were much stronger than their 9-4 record indicated last year as they held the lead in all 4 of their losses (led 3 of them by double-digits). While it still gets mentioned frequently, it should be noted that since Appalachian St s famous upset over #5 Michigan in 2007, they are 0-6 on the road vs Power 5 conference teams losing by an average of 38 ppg. We lean with Volunteers here as they ve beaten Group of 5 powers Utah St and Bowling Green in each of the last 2 season openers by 30 ppg. Friday, September 2nd GEORGIA ST 28 Ball St 24. These two played last year with Georgia St pulling the outright upset 31-19 as 12.5-point road underdogs en route to their first ever bowl appearance. This year, while the Panthers lost their 1st-team All-Sun Belt QB in Nick Arbuckle, their new QB will have plenty of experience around him. They return their top 4 RB s, 4 of their top 5 WR s and 6 OL with starting experience. On the other side, Ball State has a new head coach in Mike Neu who has never been a college head coach or coordinator. He does inherit an experienced team as they return 15 starters. Just like last year, we move more off-season college football lines than any service in the country and while this was a star-rated play at Georgia St +5.5 in the June issue, it s a no play here with the massive line move. 3 TEMPLE 30 Army 13. Temple has gone 6-0 SU/ATS in this series and will have the entire off-season to prep for the option. After one of their best seasons in school history, the Owls have to replace 3 NFL draft choices on defense. However, they maybe better than you think as they return 6 of their top 8 tacklers and then on offense return QB PJ Walker and RB Jahad Thomas. On the other side, Army was much better than their 2-10 record indicated as they lost 7 games by a TD or less. This year they have 16 returning starters and could flirt with bowl eligibility. They did get the fortunate return of QB Bradshaw who was contemplating quitting the team a few weeks ago. Prior to last year s 3-0-2 ATS mark in true road games, Army was on a 1-18 ATS mark on the road and are still 1-24 SU the last 5 years. While initially there was some value on the Black Knights when they were getting more than 3 TD s early in the summer, the massive line move makes it a no play for us. Colorado 31 Colorado St 21. @Sports Authority Field in Denver, Co. Colorado has won 6 of the last 8 meetings in Denver. However, last year Colorado St had a 500-345 yard edge but missed 3 FG s and allowed a 60-yard interception return for a TD in a 27-24 OT loss (+3). The Buffaloes are the more experienced of the two teams as they return 18 starters (we have them +7 in our Up/Downs ) while Colorado St only returns 10 starters and could take a step back this year. We ll side with the Buffaloes here who only have Idaho St on deck. Totals players note that 7 of the last 8 series meetings have gone UNDER the total as the two teams have combined to average just 46 ppg. STANFORD 30 Kansas St 16. Fresh off another Pac-12 title and No. 3 finish, the Cardinal return Heisman candidate Christian McCaffrey, They have decided to go with QB Ryan Burns as their starter but Keller Chryst could also play. They both have big shoes to fill considering Kevin Hogan was a 4-year starter that led the Cardinal to 3 Rose Bowls. On the other side, Kansas St was only 6-7 last year (worst record since Snyder s return in 2009) but figure to be improved this year. Kansas St is 6-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog the last 5 years and additionally are 20-9 ATS in all road underdog roles the last 9 years. Stanford has been solid as a home favorite at 9-4 ATS and are 46-6 SU at home the last 8 years. They have been slow starters, however highlighted by the opening loss to Northwestern last year. ARKANSAS ST 34 Toledo 31. Arkansas St has been very tough at home the last 5 years with a 26-4 SU/19-11 ATS mark. They are playing with double-revenge from a 63-44 (+3.5) bowl loss to Toledo two years ago and then last year were drilled 37-7 (+7) at Toledo as the Red Wolves had 5 TO s. Arkansas St had won 10 straight season openers prior to last year s 27-20 loss to Missouri, but they still covered. Last year Toledo traveled to the state of Arkansas and outright upset the Razorbacks (much to our dismay) and boast a 10-3 ATS mark as a road dog the last 4 years. While this is Jason Candle s first season as head coach, he had an impressive debut with an upset win over Temple in the bowl. To the wire. Saturday, September 3rd Georgia Tech 21 Boston College 20. @Aviva Stadium in Dublin, Ireland. You might need an extra strength cup of Joe for this early start time (7:30am ET/4:30am PT). Both teams will be looking to bounce back from disappointing 3-9 seasons. Remarkably both teams despite their 3-9 records actually outscored their opponents on the season as Georgia Tech was +3 ppg (+10 ypg) while Boston College was +2 ppg (+21 ypg). After covering 9 straight games by more than 3 TD s per game dating back to 2014, Georgia Tech remarkably finished on a 1-9 SU/ATS run to finish 2015. They do return QB Justin Thomas but are less experienced than the Eagles who bring back 15 returning starters. BC has had extra time to prep for the option and were No. 1 in rush defense last year allowing only 83 rush ypg (2.4). They bring back 7 starters bu did lose their DC to Michigan. A low scoring slugfest. MICHIGAN 52 Hawaii 10. Last year Hawaii traveled to Big Ten country and were outscored by a combined 66-0 at Ohio St and Wisconsin. They have the incredible task of flying to and from Sydney, Australia and then flying here in a weeks time. Hawaii actually played a decent game against Cal as they managed the 0.5-point cover despite being -5 in TO s. Their offense showed great improvement as they managed 26 FD s and 482 yards but obviously it will be tough sledding against a great Michigan defense. The Hawaii defense with 2 key suspended players was gashed for 51 points and 630 yards and you have to think they ll have tired legs again here against a powerful Michigan offense. We re not interested in the side, but will more than gladly take the OVER. IOWA 38 Miami, Oh 13. Iowa came up inches short of making it to the playoffs last season and the hangover affect was in full focus after that Michigan St loss as they were beaten 45-16 by Stanford in the Rose Bowl. In the last 5 seasons they have gone 1-4 ATS in their opener and just 1-6 ATS the last 2 seasons as a double-digit favorite. It s also difficult to imagine the Hawkeye players being fully motivated verses a MAC team that has gone 5-31 the past 3 seasons. They have instate rival Iowa St on deck, a foe that has beaten them at home each of their last two visits (Iowa 1-6 ATS prior to Iowa St the last 7 years). Miami returns 16 starters and are 4-1 ATS as a dog of 21 or more points. The only non-cover came last year with Miami coming off a rare win and Wisconsin coming off a rare loss. NORTHWESTERN 27 Western Michigan 24. The technicals are clearly in favor of the Broncos here as they are 11-4 ATS as an away underdog the last 3 years while Northwestern has been a poor home chalk at 13-24 ATS the last 10 years including a 0-7 ATS mark against teams from the MAC. The Broncos are the most talented team in the MAC this year thanks to 13 returning starters and the MAC s best recruiting class each of the last 3 years. Northwestern does welcome back several of their key players off last season s 10-3 team, but despite those 10 wins they only outscored their opponents by 1 ppg. Slight lean Broncos here. OHIO ST 45 Bowling Green 17. While Ohio State is the least experienced team in the country with only 6 returning starters, they still have arguably the most talented roster in the Big Ten. Bowling Green only returns 10 starters and they have a brand new head coach in Mike Jinks who has never even been a coordinator at the FBS level (neither coordinator has been an OC or DC at the FBS level as well). The Buckeyes were only 1-6 ATS as a home favorite last year and BG traditionally has been one of the best ATS teams on the road with a 36-17-1 overall ATS mark the last 9 years. Will Urban Meyer run up the score on the school that gave him his first head coaching job back in 2001-2002? We don t think so. Pass.
PENN ST 38 Kent St 10. Kent St has lost 13 straight to Big Ten opponents while going 2-8 ATS in their last 10. While the Golden Flashes are one of the most experienced teams in the country with 17 returning starters, they did suffer a big injury in fall camp losing their top WR in Antwan Dixon. Their offense was putrid last year averaging only 13 ppg including just 5 ppg on the road. The Nittany Lions do have a big game vs in-state rival Pitt on deck but have 14 returning starters and are switching up schemes on offense moving to a fast tempo under Joe Moorhead s attack. QB Trace McSorely is the perfect fit for that offense and that makes it easier in recommending laying the 3 TD s here. WEST VIRGINIA 28 Missouri 20. While the Tigers will have a new head coach roaming the sidelines for the first time in 15 years, Barry Odom is very familiar with the school having been a LB here in the mid-90 s while also serving as the DC here last year. His defense a year ago was the lone bright spot on a team that had a disappointing 5-7 season. The problem with last year s team was an offense that ranked second to last averaging just 13.6 ppg. This year s offensive unit is much improved. On the other side, West Virginia looks better on offense this season, but do lose 10 of their top 13 tacklers on defense including four NFL draft picks. The technicals are in favor of the Tigers here as they are a respectable 28-16 ATS the last 10 years in non-conference action while also sporting a solid 12-5 ATS mark as an away underdog. Meanwhile, West Virginia has struggled as a home favorite under head coach Dana Holgorsen going just 9-15 ATS. Since we released Missouri out as a 2H in the July issue, we ve seen the line drop. While we still lean with Missouri here, there has been clear value lost. UTEP 34 New Mexico St 24. UTEP has won 7 straight in the series (5-0-2 ATS). Last year the Miners came back from a 44-30 deficit to win a wild 50-47 OT game (-3). While UTEP is off a disappointing 5-7 season, they should be much improved this year thanks to the return of RB Aaron Jones and DB Devin Cockrell who both missed a majority of last season with injury. On the other side the Aggies return 13 starters including RB Larry Rose III who ran for 1,651 yards. However, Rose has been banged up in fall camp and could miss this game while QB Tyler Matthews left the program and starter Tyler Rogers was arrested. To top things off, their leading returning tackler on defense is also doubtful for this game. This line climbed a couple of points yesterday and we agree. Smu 37 NORTH TEXAS 30. While SMU beat North Texas 31-13 last year, the score was a bit misleading as North Texas led 13-10 after 3Q s but had 2 critical TO s in the 4Q. The home team has won 7 straight in the series. Under new head coach Seth Littrell, North Texas will be yet another team to join the ranks of up-tempo spread offenses and they will go to 5th-year Alec Morris from Alabama at QB. While SMU and their 16 returning starters might get a look from us at another time this season, we re fading them here. Ralph Michaels always said that a team must first learn how to win before it learns how to cover, especially on the road where SMU went 0-5 SU last year. We can t lay this much with the Mustangs as they haven t won a road game by over 10 points since 2012. MISSISSIPPI ST 41 South Alabama 13. These two teams have met twice in the last 4 years with Mississippi St winning them by a combined 65-13. The Bulldogs do return only 11 starters this year and must replace arguably the best player in school history in QB Dak Prescott (see his performances for Dallas this preseason). Head coach Dan Mullen has yet to name a starter and the Bulldogs have lost a pair of starting DB s this fall camp for extended periods. South Alabama returns only 10 starters this year but could actually be improved. South Alabama is on a 2-8 ATS run as an away dog while Mississippi St is 18-10 ATS as a home favorite. However, a good note to take here is that new South Alabama DC Kane Wommack s dad Dave has been a long-time DC at Ole Miss and could give his son some pointers. OHIO 40 Texas St 20. While Texas St has a new head coach in Everett Withers, it should be noted that they were 0-6 ATS as a road underdog last year while Ohio is 6-2 ATS as a home favorite the last 2 years. Ohio s most experienced returning QB JD Sprague recently quit football due to health reasons paving the way for Greg Winham who was pushing Sprague for the starting role this summer. Despite the loss, the Bobcats look just as strong as last year s team. Texas St, meanwhile looks to be in rebuilding mode as they return just 10 starters from team that was outscored by 30 ppg on the road last year. Pass. KENTUCKY 34 Southern Miss 28. In head coach Mark Stoops 3 seasons, UK has gone 10-0 SU/7-3 ATS as a home favorite and the 3 games in which they didn t cover the spread they still won by at least 7 points. The Wildcats have started strong each of the last two seasons only to falter down the stretch. Stoops will need every win he can get this year and does have an experienced team with 13 returning starters including 9 on offense. Last year the Golden Eagles were quite simply money in the regular season going 9-3 SU/10-2 ATS. However, they lost their final two and their head coach just prior to signing day. They do bring in Jay Hopson who is familiar with the state and school and he inherits a talented team with 13 returning starters led by senior QB Nick Mullens. New Southern Miss OC Shannon Dawson might have a score to settle with Kentucky head coach Mike Stoops who fired him after last season. He certainly knows the strengths and weaknesses of the Kentucky players. One of the more entertaining games of Week 1. Pass. ARKANSAS 37 Louisiana Tech 13. This game opened up at Arkansas -21 but after Louisiana Tech QB Ryan Higgins was arrested, the line climbed to Arkansas -26. While he will not start in this game, he is available to play according to head coach Skip Holtz. The Bulldogs have among the fewest returning starters in the country with only 9. They lose QB Jeff Driskel, all-everything RB Kenneth Dixon and a 1st-round draft choice on the DL in Vernon Butler. Quite simply, they are rebuilding but they still have Holtz as their head coach and much like his father, prefers the underdog role as he is 6-1 ATS as an away dog the last two years. The Razorbacks should be much better on defense this year while their offense has some rebuilding to do. They do have TCU on deck and this line is too inflated now. FLORIDA 48 Massachusetts 10. The Gators have won 26 straight season openers including 61-13 over New Mexico St last year and rest assured this will make 27 straight. UMass is one of the least experienced teams in the country with only 10 returning starters back from a team who disappointed last year at 3-9. They have been blown out in each of their last 3 games vs Power 5 competition. On the other side, the Gators started last season 10-1, but really struggled down the stretch particularly in his last 15 games dating back to Oregon St. Pass. 4 on offense. They should be better on that side of the ball this year especially getting more production out of the QB position with transfer Luke Del Rio. The Gators are dealing with several injury/suspension issues particularly at the WR position so this spread is too high for our liking. Pass. Clemson 34 AUBURN 28. While Auburn comes in unranked (unlike last season s overrated squad), this still is a marquee match-up in a game Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn desperately needs. Clemson has arguably the best offense in the country led by Heisman favorite QB Deshaun Watson who headlines 8 returning starters on that side of the ball. The defense is again inexperienced with only 4 returning starters, but that is still more than last year s team which returned only 3 and still was one of the best in the country. On the other side, Auburn has decided to go with Sean White at QB but White doesn t posses the dynamic running ability that the Malzahn offense needs. Clemson has gone just 2-6 ATS the last two years as an away favorite and while we love Watson and Co this year, laying more than a TD in SEC country is never ideal. TEXAS A&M 27 Ucla 23. Despite having one of the most feared stadiums in the country, the Aggies have struggled at Kyle Field as of late with only a 3-11 ATS mark their last 14. The Aggies do have 13 returning starters but their whole season will ride on whether or not Oklahoma transfer QB Trevor Knight plays like he did vs Alabama in the bowl a couple years back or plays like the QB that lost his starting job. On the other side, UCLA has one of the best QB s in the country in Josh Rosen, but they do have a rebuilt OL and WR corps. That s not good news facing the best 1-2 punch of DE s in college football in Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall. The UCLA defense should be much improved this year with 9 returning starters but new Texas A&M offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone was the OC at UCLA for the last 4 years so he is very familiar with the strengths and weaknesses of the UCLA players. Also this is a 2:30pm CT time start so the Texas heat and humidity could take its toll on the California boys. 3H TULSA 42 San Jose St 30. Both teams finished 6-7 last season but the similarities end there. Tulsa was 6-6 in the regular season having faced 3 ranked teams while losing to Virginia Tech by only 3 in a bowl game. Meanwhile, San Jose St was 5-7 in the regular season having faced NO ranked teams and beat a 6-6 Georgia St in a bowl game. Both teams return 14 starters this season including their QB s but clearly favor Tulsa at home whose losses at H.A. Chapman Stadium last year came to Houston (finished AP# 9), #18 Memphis and #19 Navy. San Jose St, meanwhile is 1-9 ATS as an away dog the last two years and lost their all-everything RB Tyler Ervin who accounted for 2,637 all-purpose yards. We love laying under a TD here. WASHINGTON 38 Rutgers 13. Rutgers did open the season in Seattle just 2 years ago as they upset Washington St 41-38 (+8). However, that was under a different regime and while new head coach Chris Ash (from Ohio St) inherits an experienced team with 16 returning starters, the Scarlet Knights have routinely been blown out on the road vs the big boys the last couple of seasons. On the other side, Washington returns 15 starters from last year s team that finished with 3 straight dominating wins and QB Jake Browning and RB Myles Gaskin are now sophomores. The defense could again be the best in the Pac-12. However, the Huskies have gotten a lot of love from all the media outlets this off-season and while most of it is deserved, we can t lay this huge number here. Pass. Lsu 27 Wisconsin 17. @Lambeau Field in Green Bay, WI. These two met in the 2014 opener down in Houston with Wisconsin blowing a 24-7 3Q lead. Will the upperclassmen have delayed payback on their minds still? LSU hired Wisconsin defensive coordinator Dave Aranda in the off-season and Aranda should have a good grasp of the Wisconsin defensive players strengths and weaknesses. The Tigers have 16 returning starters and are a clear National Title contender this year. They have suffered a lot of attrition this off-season and all-everything RB Leonard Fournette has been dealing with an ankle injury in fall camp. On the other side, the Badgers should be improved on offense this year but figure to take a step back on defense. Despite Wisconsin playing close to home, this line seems right on the money. Georgia 30 North Carolina 27. @Georgia Dome in Atlanta, GA. This will be the first game as head coach for Georgia s Kirby Smart who inherits a talented team. However, the Bulldogs still don t have the QB situation ironed out as Smart is faced with the difficult decision of going with the experienced senior Greyson Lambert or the talented true freshman Jacob Eason. They are facing a North Carolina defense that made major strides a year ago under DC Gene Chizik (ppg allowed improved by more than 2 TD s per game). The North Carolina offense has to replace QB Marquise Williams but Mitch Trubisky has been a capable backup the last 2 years and was 40 of 47 passing last year in mop-up duty! While UGA clearly has the home edge inside the Georgia Dome, we think this one goes down to the wire. Oklahoma 41 Houston 27. @NRG Stadium in Houston, TX. The Cougars are 10-1-1 ATS as an underdog the last 3 years while Oklahoma is just 1-6 ATS in the state of Texas the last 3 years. However, those are the few advantages Houston has in this game. Hats off to Houston head coach Tom Herman guiding the Cougars to a 13-1 record last year. Thanks to a bowl win versus a completely disinterested Florida St team they come into this season ranked No. 15 in the AP poll despite returning only 11 starters (however, one of them is QB Greg Ward, Jr). The Cougars are inexperienced on the OL and also lose 147 career starts in the secondary. Both of those could present matchup issues vs an athletic OU defensive front and also QB Baker Mayfield and a high-powered OU offense. The hefty opponent ranking, trip to Houston to play in an NFL stadium, bad taste of losing to Clemson in the playoffs and national TV coverage makes this a game the Sooners can rally around. NEBRASKA 45 Fresno St 17. Fresno used to be a great play on team in the Pat Hill era vs the Big Boys but the Bulldogs have quite simply played dead the last two years against Power 5 competition as they are 0-5 SU/ATS losing by an average of 36 ppg and failing to cover by 18 ppg! Nebraska was much better than their 6-7 record indicated last year as they lost 5 games in the final seconds. They did finish the season on a high note by upsetting UCLA in the bowl game and return 13 starters. Fresno head coach Tim DeRuyter is likely coaching for his job this season after going 3-11 SU in his last 14 games but this year s team doesn t look that improved on paper. Meanwhile, Nebraska head coach Mike Riley is just 3-12 ATS as a chalk
2H Alabama 31 Usc 13. @AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX. Alabama is 7-1 ATS in openers under Nick Saban (one game no line) and this will be the 3rd time the Crimson Tide have played in AT&T Stadium (home of Dallas Cowboys) in the last 2 years. They easily won and covered over Wisconsin (35-17, -12) in the opener and Michigan State (38-0, -10) in the playoffs here last year. Alabama OC Lane Kiffin probably stills has a score to settle against the school that fired him on the team plane coming back from a road trip loss to Arizona St in 2013. While the Trojans have 10 returning starters on offense, the one position where they are inexperienced is at QB, and that s not good news facing a Saban defense that was more aggressive than ever last year and could be just as good this year. On the other side of the ball, the USC DL loses all its starters from last year, another bad matchup for the Trojans considering Bama s strength at the line of scrimmage. Roll Tide! 3H UL-LAFAYETTE (plus the points) Boise St 37 UL-LAFAYETTE 24. Boise ranks as one of our top Group of 5 teams and they will be favored in every game. While we expect them to land a major bowl bid this year, laying almost three TD s in this situation is way too much. Boise beat ULL at home in 2014 but even with one of the strongest home field advantages was laying 17 points. Now the edge is reversed as the Broncos who have been practicing with temperatures in the 80 s but humidity in the 20% range travel to Louisiana for a 10 AM MT local time kick-off with humidity in 80% range. ULL was 9-4 in each of the previous four seasons prior to an off-year going 4-8 in 2015, but expect them to bounce back this year. Note that under head coach Mark Hudspeth, the Ragin Cajuns have only been a home underdog twice in 5 seasons going 2-0 SU/ATS. While we won t call for the outright upset here, we will call for the Cajuns to put a scare in the Broncos. Arizona 35 Byu 34. @University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, AZ. Last season, Arizona stumbled down the stretch losing 4 of their final games before beating New Mexico in a bowl while BYU was the opposite winning 7 of their last 8 before losing to Utah in a bowl. The Cougars have decided to go with Taysom Hill at QB who has seen each of his last two seasons cut way short due to injury. BYU does have a rookie head coach in Kalani Sitake while both of his coordinators have never been an OC/DC at the FBS level. On the other side, Arizona returns 15 starters and has been a strong starter under Rich Rodriguez. While BYU comes up higher in our power ratings, we give some home field edge to Arizona here making this game basically a pick-em which is where the line is. We ll pass on the side and lean with the OVER as BYU games are on a 16-9-1 ATS run to the OVER while Arizona games were on a 12-2 ATS to the OVER last year. Northern Illinois 31 WYOMING 23. While Wyoming fans were very excited to start 3-1 in head coach Craig Bohl s first season they have gone 3-17 since. However, this year the Cowboys return 16 starters including a 2nd-team Mountain West RB in Brian Hill (1,631 rushing yards last year) plus 4 OL starters. Last year the Cowboys started 1-6 but were only outgained by 7 ypg as they were -8 in TO s in their losses. The Huskies have a brutal opening 3 games as a trip to USF and a home game versus San Diego St are on deck so can t imagine this game is the one the players had circled. The Huskies do return 13 starters and should get much better health from the QB position this year. Also don t forget Wyoming has the highest elevation of any FBS stadium which can take its toll. NIU is on a 15-4 ATS run as an away favorite while despite Wyoming s massive elevation edge, they are just 8-16-1 ATS as a home underdog the last 8 years. Pass. 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Call 1-440-787-6614 or order online at bradpowerssports.com 5 Sunday, September 4th 2H TEXAS 31 Notre Dame 28. We normally don t use big, isolated National TV games but we think there is value here and it starts with what happened in last year s game. In last season s opener, the Fighting Irish destroyed the Longhorns 38-3 outgaining them by 364 yards, therefore, the public is all over ND in this one. However, this year Texas is one of the most improved teams in the country. With 15 returning starters, we have them power-rated 9.5 points better than last year s team. The Horns return their top 2 rushers, 3 of their top 4 receivers and 7 of their top 9 tacklers on defense. They have been a bit banged up on the OL in fall camp (why this play was downgraded from the top play of the week) but we think their new fast-paced offense under OC Sterlin Gilbert is a bad match-up for an overrated ND defense. On the flip side, Notre Dame only has 7 returning starters as they ve lost 2 more this summer in TE Alize Jones and S Max Redfield making them one of the least experienced teams in the country. The Irish lose their leading rusher, 6 of their top 7 receivers and 7 of their top 8 tacklers on defense. Now all those inexperienced players have to travel on the road in a hostile environment something ND hasn t handled very well as of late. In fact, in the last 3 years in true road games, Notre Dame is 0-8 straight up when favored by less than a TD or are an underdog. Keep in mind, Charlie Strong s job is on the line this season and in two key games last year when is job was in jeopardy they upset Oklahoma 24-17 (+16.5) and upset Baylor 23-17 (+21.5). Forget the points, we re calling for the outright upset here! Monday, September 5th Florida State 28 Ole Miss 24. @Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fl. Florida St is the only team in the country that returns all 11 starters on offense led by All-American candidate RB Dalvin Cook. However, one of the returning starters is out for this game as the foot injury to QB Sean Maguire has paved the way for redshirt freshman Deondre Francois to get the start. Francois has more upside than Maquire and the Seminoles did play their spring game in this facility so that should give them an added advantage. However, Ole Miss has the decided edge in QB experience with the return of QB Chad Kelly (best QB in SEC this year). The Rebels did, however lose 3 1st-round draft choices to the NFL for the first time in school history. It should be noted that Ole Miss is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS as an underdog in the regular season the last 2 years and Hugh Freeze has been arguably the best ATS coach in the country with a 43-20-1 mark in his career. We were wanting to back FSU in this one but the early week injury report for the Seminoles didn t look great which includes star safety Derwin James who is questionable. The UNDER maybe your best option at this point. Get FREE Weekly Football Picks at bradpowerssports.com You can also send a check payable to: BP Sports, LLC 2764 N. Green Valley Pkwy Suite #103 Henderson, NV 89014-2120