FAPRI 26 Preliminary Baseline December 15-16, 25 INTERNATIONAL SUGAR Amani Elobeid (515)-294-6175 amani@iastate.edu FAPRI Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute Center for Agricultural and Rural Development Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa 511-17 17 (515)-294 294-1183 http://www.fapri.iastate.edu
Real GDP Growth Rate of Major Exporters Percent 15 1 5 1995 1999 23 27 211 215-5 -1-15 Australia Brazil EU-15 Thailand
Real GDP Growth Rate of Major Importers Percent 12 1 8 6 4 2-2 1995 1999 23 27 211 215-4 -6 China India Japan Russia
Average Exchange Rate Growth for Major Exporters Percent 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 Australia Brazil European Union Thailand
Average Exchange Rate Growth for Major Importers Percent 5 4 3 2 1-1 -2-3 China India Japan Russia
International Sugar World Major exporters Major importers Country coverage
World Sugarcane and Sugar Beet Area Harvested Million Hectares 3 25 2 15 1 5 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Sugar Beet Sugar Cane
World Sugar Production, Consumption and Net Trade Million MT 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Million MT 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Trade
World Sugar FOB Caribbean Price Dollars per MT 3 25 2 15 1 5 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
Major Sugar Exporters Thousand MT 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Brazil Australia Thailand European Union Guatemala South Africa
Major Sugar Importers Thousand MT 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Russia and Ukraine Indonesia Japan Canada United States South Korea
International Sugar Major Exporters Brazil: Continued expansion Reduced production in Thailand Recovery in Australia Sugar for Ethanol (Brazil, Australia, Thailand)
Brazilian Sugarcane Area Harvested Thousand Hectares 6,5 6, 5,5 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
Brazilian Yield MT per Hectare 8 7 6 5 4 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
Brazilian Production, Consumption and Net Exports Thousand MT 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Thousand MT 24, 2, 16, 12, 8, 4, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Exports
Thai Sugarcane Area Harvested Thousand Hectares 1,2 1, 8 6 4 2 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
Thai Yield MT per Hectare 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
Thai Production, Consumption and Net Exports Thousand MT 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Thousand MT 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Exports
Australian Sugarcane Area Harvested Thousand Hectares 5 4 3 2 1 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
Australian Yield MT per Hectare 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
Australian Production, Consumption and Net Exports Thousand MT Thousand MT 7, 5, 6, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Exports
International Sugar EU-25 Implementation of new sugar reforms will change the picture in the EU A 36% cut in the institutional white sugar price over 4 years from 26 Reduction in the minimum beet price by 39.5% A and B quotas merged into one production quota Additional 1.1 million tons of C sugar against oneoff payment Voluntary restructuring buy-up scheme
EU-25 Sugar Beet Area Harvested Thousand Hectares 2,2 2,1 2, 1,9 1,8 1,7 1,6 1,5 24/5 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/15
EU-25 Yield MT per Hectare 65 6 55 5 45 24/5 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/15
EU-25 Production, Consumption and Net Exports Thousand MT 25, 2, 15, Thousand MT 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1, 5, 24/5 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/15 Production Consumption Net Exports 1,5 1, 5
World Sugar FOB Caribbean Price Dollars per MT 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 1994/95 1998/99 22/3 26/7 21/11 214/15 With EU Reform Without EU Reform
EU-25 Production, Consumption and Net Exports Thousand MT 25, 2, 15, Thousand MT 4, 3, 2, 1, 1, 5, 24/5 26/7 28/9 21/11 212/13 214/15 Production Consumption Net Exports -1, -2, -3, -4,
International Sugar Major Importers Russia and the Ukraine continue to be major importers Recovery in China and India Japanese imports continue to decline
Russian and Ukrainian Sugar Beet Area Harvested Thousand Hectares 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
Russian and Ukrainian Yield MT per Hectare 25 2 15 1 5 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
Russian and Ukrainian Production, Consumption and Net Imports Thousand MT 12, Thousand MT 6, 1, 5, 8, 4, 6, 3, 4, 2, 2, 1, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Imports
Indonesian Sugarcane Area Harvested Thousand Hectares 5 4 3 2 1 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
Indonesian Yield MT per Hectare 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
Indonesian Production, Consumption and Net Imports Thousand MT 5, Thousand MT 2,5 4, 2, 3, 1,5 2, 1, 1, 5 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Imports
Japanese Sugarcane and Sugar Beet Area Harvested Thousand Hectares 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Cane Area Beet Area
Japanese Yield MT per Hectare 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Cane Yield Beet Yield
Japanese Production, Consumption and Net Imports Thousand MT 3, Thousand MT 1,75 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1,5 1,25 1, 75 5 25 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Imports
Chinese Sugarcane and Sugar Beet Area Harvested Thousand Hectares 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Cane Area Beet Area
Chinese Sugarcane and Sugar Beet Yield MT per Hectare 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Cane Yield Beet Yield
Chinese Production, Consumption and Net Imports Thousand MT 15, 13, 11, 9, 7, 5, 3, 1, -1, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Imports
Indian Sugarcane Area Harvested Thousand Hectares 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
Indian Yield MT per Hectare 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16
Indian Production, Consumption and Net Imports Thousand MT 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, -5, 1995/96 1999/ 23/4 27/8 211/12 215/16 Production Consumption Net Imports
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