Biocomplexity and fisheries sustainability Ray Hilborn Tom Quinn Daniel Schindler School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences University of Washington
What is biocomplexity Biodiversity is the diversity of life forms including species diversity, and diversity of stocks, life histories and morphologies within a species Biocomplexity is the complex chemical, biological and social interactions in our planet s systems (Colwell 98)
The Earth is a living, ever-changing planet. Its environment is defined by the interaction of many complex systems that are structured or influenced by living organisms, their components or biological processes. These systems are the source of our sustenance, well being and quality of life. Biocomplexity is the defining property of these systems, resulting in the `whole being greater than the sum of its parts'. The area of biocomplexity that will come to the forefront in coming years is that of interactions of living organisms with all facets of their external environment. In particular, research on interactions involving multiple levels of biological organization and/or multiple spatial (microns to thousands of kilometres) and temporal (nanoseconds to aeons) scales will be of great importance. (Colwell 2000)
Fisheries Sustainability: The Litany Most of the world's major fisheries are depleted or rapidly deteriorating. Wherever they operate, commercial fishing fleets are exceeding the oceans' ecological limits. Greenpeace
What is wrong with the litany? Most of the worlds fisheries are not collapsed and produce substantial yield In the US we are obtaining 85% of the maximum possible yield The authors of the Litany argue fisheries management has failed and we need to look for new solutions
We have the solutions in hand There are many successful fisheries We need to look to the successful examples and learn from them, not look for new solutions
Bristol Bay sockeye stand out as a success story in sustainable biological management Catch in millions of fish 50 40 30 20 10 0 1893 1900 1907 1914 1921 1928 1935 1942 1949 1956 1963 1970 1977 1984 1991 1998 A single management agency with clear biological objectives Good ocean conditions from 1977-1996
A key to this sustainability is management by escapement goal In escapement goal management the fishery is regulated to assure that a target number of fish escape the fishery and reach the spawning grounds, assuring the long term productivity of the stock
Ugashik 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 Catch and Escapement 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 Calendar Year
Biocomplexity of the stocks is also a key Diversity in life history Spawning on beaches, in creeks, in rivers Diversity of freshwater life 0, 1 and 2 years Diversity of marine life, 1, 2, 3 and 4 years Diversity in morphology
Hansen Creek sockeye salmon Male Female
Bear Creek sockeye salmon
Beach spawning sockeye salmon
Diversity of Habitats and Geography Many different lake systems different physical regimes Different times of smolt and adult migration Long term changes associated with Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Large rivers between lakes have stable flows, no bear predation Often high density spawning
Beach spawning occurs where here is upwelling or wind driven currents Small streams often have very high density spawning: also high bear predation
Importance of climate The Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Warm Phase Cool Phase http://tao.atmos.washington.edu/pdo/
http://tao.atmos.washington.edu/pdo/
Historical sockeye population dynamics Lake Nerka, SW Alaska 12 Salmon density (1000s/km 2 ) 8 4 + fishery catch escapement 0 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year Schindler and Leavitt (2001)
45,000,000 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 Naknek-Kvichak Nushagak Egegik Different systems have been important at different times 0 1893 1905 1917 1929 1941 1953 1965 1977 1989
Recruits per spawner Kvichak Nak/Br Egegik 10 8 6 4 2 0 1955 1965 1975 1985 10 8 6 4 2 0 1955 1965 1975 1985 10 8 6 4 2 0 1955 1965 1975 1985 Ugashik Wood Igushik 10 8 6 4 2 0 1955 1965 1975 1985 10 8 6 4 2 0 1955 1965 1975 1985 10 8 6 4 2 0 1955 1965 1975 1985 Nush Togiak 10 8 6 4 2 0 1955 1965 1975 1985 10 8 6 4 2 0 1955 1965 1975 1985
Changing perceptions In the 1940s 50s or 60s no one would have ever expected Egegik to be the most important system in Bristol Bay In the 1970s no one would have expected the Nushagak to be the most important system in the bay Many had never heard of the Alagnak! Not on many maps
Alagnak River Alagnak
Alagnak river escapements 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Spatial scale hypotheses The role of biocomplexity and response to climate extends to all spatial scales We know it occurs on Pacific wide scales Documented negative correlation between lower 48 and Alaskan salmon productivity We see it at smaller scales At different spawning sites in a stream Even within sections of a stream
16000 14000 12000 Nerka Kema Creek 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 30000 25000 Aleknagik Happy Creek 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
The human side of the story For all of the excitement over the biological success, the social and economic success has faded It was once possible to clear $50,000 in a 6 week season
The human biocomplexity The fishing fleet and processing industry is as diverse as the fish Diversity of fishing gears Diversity of strategies mobile, stationary, resident non resident, high capital input, low capital input
The fishery 2000 drift gillnet boats and 1000 shore based set net gill nets Fishery from 25 June to 15 July Product is both canned and frozen Canned market UK and Europe, Frozen Japan
Photo Robert Kope
Photo Robert Kope
Photo Robert Kope
The race for fish Is widely recognized as the primary economic problem in worlds fisheries In the 1930 s 30 million salmon were caught in Bristol Bay by 2000 sail powered boats We don t need 2000 high powered vessels State policy is to spread the wealth to as many as possible
The Management System The management system
The fleet The biocomplexity of Bristol Bay Price and Revenue The managers Climate The fish
The potential adaptation of the human system is restricted by regulation Regulations determine how many and what type of fishing takes place There is very limited ability to adapt We expect that the struggle for existence will by default take place within existing regulations We are modelling alternatives to the current regulatory structure including cooperative fishing programs as seen at Chignik
General Lessons Biocomplexity appears to be important in stabilizing total productivity over a range of spatial scales in both fish and human systems Systems that are productive in one epoch are much less productive in other epochs The lesson is maintain the stock structure what seems unimportant now may be very important later The regulatory structure imposed threatens the ability of the human system to adapt
Some other examples Ecosystems change The productivity of different species changes
900 The worst fisheries disaster of the last 20 years Collapse of the Northern Cod fishery in Newfoundland Catch in thousands of tons 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1850 1900 1950 2000 52
Value of fish products landed in Newfoundland 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Groundfish Shellfish 0 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
Landed value in New England $800,000,000 $700,000,000 $600,000,000 $500,000,000 $400,000,000 $300,000,000 $200,000,000 $100,000,000 $0 1950 1954 1958 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002
Gulf of Alaska Small set of structuring variables operating at different speeds - Whammo!
Conclusions If the biota, in the course of aeons, has built something we like but do not understand, then who but a fool would discard seemingly useless parts? To keep every cog and wheel is the first precaution of intelligent tinkering. Aldo Leopold Round River
Final Lessons Maintain flexible social institutions: fishing communities need to adapt This issue has not been on the legislative agenda The fisheries crisis is one of governance We know what to do: solutions are available
Acknowledgements The FRI pioneers who started and maintained 57 years of continuous data Bud Burgner, Ole Matiesen, Don Rogers The staff of Alaska Department of Fish and Game who continue much of the original work and maintain many of the data bases: Lowell Fair, Jeff Regnart, Jim Browning, Brian Bue