ICES advice for 2014 West of Scotland; West of Ireland and Celtic Sea; Channel; Irish Sea

ICES advice for 214 West of Scotland; West of Ireland and Celtic Sea; Channel; Irish Sea NWWRAC (Dublin, July 23, 213) Carmen Fernández, ACOM vice-chair

West of Scotland & Rockall (VIab) Cod (VIa; VIb) Haddock (VIa; VIb) Whiting (VIa; VIb) Anglerfish (IIIa,IV,VI) Megrim (IVa-VIa; VIb) Nephrops(FUs11-12-13) Celtic Sea & West, Southwest Ireland Cod (VIIe-k) Haddock (VIIb-k) Whiting (VIIe-k) Plaice (CS; VIIh-k; VIIbc) Sole (CS; VIIh-k; VIIbc) Northern hake Anglerfish (VIIb-k, VIIIabd) Megrim (VIIb-k, VIIIabd) Nephrops(FUs 16-17-2-22) Advice for Nephrops and Rockall haddock in autumn Channel Cod (IV, VIId, Skagerrak) Plaice (VIId) Plaice (VIIe) Sole (VIId) Sole (VIIe) Irish Sea (VIIa) Cod Haddock Whiting Plaice Sole Nephrops (FUs 14-15-19)

Steps in Advisory Process Expert Groups Conduct assessments & first draft of advice Advice Drafting Groups Finalise advice documents Benchmark Workshops In-depth revision of assessment methods: data, models... External Reviewers ACOM Approves and releases advice Technical audits annually & extra reviewing when needed

Basis for ICES Advice Management Plan Consistent with PA & recognised as potential basis for advice by competent authorities No ICES MSY approach Transition to MSY approach in 215 No ICES PA approach All options in Outlook Table

ICES MSY approach: Maximize long term average yield Safeguard against low SSB F MSY B trigger more caution needed F MSY SSB * If current F higher than this: transition for 215

Transition to MSY HCR by 215 Moving from F 21 to F MSY-HCR in 215 in 5 steps F MSY-HCR transition 213 =.4 F(21) +.6 F MSY-HCR F MSY-HCR transition 214 =.2 F(21) +.8 F MSY-HCR F MSY-HCR transition 215 =. F(21) + 1. F MSY-HCR = F MSY-HCR (values of advised F capped at F pa, for consistency with PA)

Data limited stocks (DLS): new approach in 212 All stocks for which a full assessment and outlook table with catch options can not be provided (more than 1) In 212, ICES provided quantitative advice for the first time Categorisation of all stocks (6 categories) from data rich towards situations of decreasing information Methods for each category Progress will continue in 213: WKLIFE3 in October

Category 3:If a reliable stock abundance index exists: advice:recent catch multiplied by index trend in last 5 years (average last 2 years)/(average previous 3 years) 1.limit result to 2% change (to dampen noise) 2.Precautionary margin: 2% reduction if stock status relative to reference points unknown --unless evidence that stock is strongly increasing or exploitation (F or effort) has decreased substantially. * Where least information available, and when precautionary margin applied: no expected changes in advice for some years, unless important new knowledge emerges

All advice available online at: Follow link to ICES advice http://www.ices.dk Community Advisory process Latest advice In addition to advice items, document General context to ICES advice explains principles and basis for advice For advice release dates, follow link: Community Advisory process Advice requests and advice release dates

Template (as last year) Two-pager simple information for managers Supporting information Background to two-pager

State of stock table (as last year)

Overview of advice by stock Advice for 213: Stock F MSY MSY B trigger landings (catch in brackets) no directed fisheries; minimise Cod West Scotland VIa.19 22 t bycatch, discards Advice for 214: landings (catch in brackets) no directed fisheries; minimise bycatch, discards Cod Rockall VIb nd nd (< 7 t) SALY Cod Celtic Sea VIIe-k.4 1 3 t < 1 2 t Cod Irish Sea VIIa.4 1 t no directed fisheries; minimise bycatch, discards < 6 848 t (catch can not be calculated) Cod North Sea IV, VIId, IIIaW.19 15 t < 25 441 t < 28 89 t (< 37 57 t) SALY Stock F MSY MSY B trigger Advice for 213: landings (catch in brackets) Haddock West Scotland VIa.3 3 t Haddock Rockall VIb.3 9 t Haddock VIIb-k.33 7 5 t Haddock Irish Sea VIIa nd nd < 31 t technical measures in Nephrops TR2 no directed fisheries; minimise bycatch, discards < 95 t ; technical measures (< 71 t); technical measures Advice for 214: landings (catch in brackets) < 3 988 t (< 6 432 t) technical measures in Nephrops TR2 advice in autumn < 3 62 t (< 5 281 t) < 572 t (< 1 12 t); technical measures SALY:Same Advice as Last Year

Overview of advice by stock Stock F MSY MSY B trigger Advice for 213: landings (catch in brackets) Advice for 214: landings (catch in brackets) Whiting West Scotland VIa nd nd lowest possible catch; technical measures in NephropsTR2 fleet lowest possible catch; technical measures in Nephrops TR2 fleet Whiting Rockall VIb nd nd (< 11 t) SALY Whiting Celtic Sea VIIe-k.36 21 t < 17 5 t; technical measures to reduce discard rates < 15 562 t (catch can not be calculated) Whiting Irish Sea VIIa nd nd lowest possible catch; technical measures to reduce discard rates SALY SALY:Same Advice as Last Year

Advice for 213: Stock F MSY MSY B trigger landings (catch in brackets) Plaice SW Ireland (< 1 t); nd nd VIIh-k reduce bycatch and discards Advice for 214: landings (catch in brackets) < 135 t (catch can not be calculated) Plaice W Ireland VIIb,c nd nd (< 3 t) SALY Plaice Celtic Sea VIIf,g nd nd < 36 t; technical measures to reduce discard rates < 519 t (< 1 68 t); technical measures to reduce discard rates Plaice Irish Sea VIIa nd nd < 49 t < 497 t (< 1 827 t) Plaice W Channel VIIe.24 1 65 t < 2 1 t < 1 397 t (catch can not be calculated) Plaice E Channel VIId.23 nd (< 4 3 t); reduce discards < 3 925 t (catch can not be calculated); reduce discards Advice for 213: Stock F MSY MSY B trigger landings (catch in brackets) (< 2 t); Sole SW Ireland VIIh-k nd nd take into account advice for plaice Advice for 214: landings (catch in brackets) < 252 t (< 252 t) Sole W Ireland VIIb,c nd nd (< 3 t) SALY Sole Celtic Sea VIIf,g.31 2 2 t < 1 1 t < 92 t (< 92 t) Sole Irish Sea VIIa.16 3 1 t no directed fisheries; minimise bycatch, discards no directed fisheries; minimise bycatch, discards Sole W Channel VIIe.27 2 8 t < 96 t < 832 t (< 832 t) Sole E Channel VIId.29 8 t < 5 9 t < 3 251 t (< 3 251 t) SALY:Same Advice as Last Year

Overview of advice by stock Stock F MSY MSY B trigger Advice for 213: landings (catch in brackets) Advice for 214: landings (catch in brackets) Hake Northern.24 nd < 45 4 t < 81 846 t (catch can not be calculated) Angler VIIb-k & VIIIabd nd nd (< 248 t) < 3745 t (catch can not be calculated) Angler IIIa, IV, VI nd nd (reduce catch by 2%) < 1231 t (< 1231 t) Megrim IVa, VIa.33 974 t < 47 t < 595 t (< 7 t) Megrim Rockall VIb nd nd (< 16 t) < 27 t (catch can not be calculated) Megrim VIIb-k & VIIIabd nd nd < 12 t SALY Pollack VI, VII nd nd (< 4 2 t) SALY Sea bass IVbc, VIIa, VIId-h nd nd Combined for Northeast Atlantic Sea bass VIa, VIIb, VIIj nd nd Combined for Northeast Atlantic Commercial landings < 277 t (catch can not be calculated) Commercial landings < 18 t (catch can not be calculated) SALY:Same Advice as Last Year

West of Scotland & Rockall (VIa & VIb) Cod (VIa; VIb) Haddock (VIa; VIb in autumn) Whiting (VIa; VIb) Anglerfish (IIIa,IV,VI) Megrim (IVa-VIa; VIb) Nephrops(FUs11-12-13) in autumn

Cod in Division VIa (West of Scotland) Advice for 214, MSY: No directed fisheries; minimise bycatch and discards MSY (F MSY ) Precautionary approach (F pa,f lim ) F (Fishing Mortality) 21 211 212 Above target Harvest unsustainable MSY (B trigger ) Precautionary approach (B pa,b lim ) SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) 211 212 213 * Mortality high, very high discarding since 26 Below trigger Reduced reproductive capacity * SSB << B lim * Rec low in last decade Cod MP since 28: not evaluated by ICES for conformity with PA,but catches have not been constrained and no increase in SSB Cod form aggregations high catch rates and high F possible under low abundance and low effort

Cod in Division VIa (West of Scotland) Catch 212 ~ 1 6 t (discards 71%) Catch dominated by discards very important to maintain the highest possible sampling (observer) coverage of vessels in Division VIa F(213) = F(21-12) =.92; SSB (214) = 1.7 << B lim (14 kt) F MSY =.19 Rationale Catch Total (214) Landings (214) Discards (214) Weights in tonnes TAC(213)=, bycatch may be landed upto 1.5% of retained catch by weight Basis F Total (214) F Land (214) F Disc (214) SSB (215) %SSB change MSY transition.33.11.22 (F 21.2) + ((F MSY (SSB 214 /MSY B trigger )).8).19.6.13 3.1 +79% MSY approach.1.3.7 F MSY SSB 214 /MSY B trigger.1.3.7 3.44 +15% Precautionary approach B pa 3.46 +16% Management plan.98.31.67 F = F 213.75.69.22.47 2.12 +26% Zero catch F = 3.46 +16% Other options.32.1.22 F 213.2.18.6.12 3.2 +8%.59.19.4 F 213.4.37.12.25 2.65 +58%.83.26.57 F 213.6.55.17.38 2.33 +39% 1.3.32.71 F 213.8.74.23.51 2.6 +23% 1.2.37.83 F 213 1..92.28.64 1.82 +8.3% 1.35.41.94 F 213 1.2 1.1.33.77 1.62 3.6% SSB will remain well below B lim in 215 MSY ( more caution part of HCR): no directed fisheries, minimise bycatch and discards

Cod in Division VIb (Rockall) Advice for 214 and 215, DLS: Catch < 7 t Advice issued in 212 was biennial, valid for 213 and 214 Same catch is also applicable to 215 Stock category: 6 Only data are official landings Doubts on accuracy of landings data: vessels operate in VIa and VIb Precautionary buffer (2% reduction) applied in the advice issued in 212 and catches are marginal same catch advice also considered valid for 215 Cod TAC unit VIb (Rockall subunit) is included in the list of the Joint statement by the Council and the Commission. 213 TAC likely to remain the same for 5 years.

Haddock in Division VIa (West of Scotland) Advice for 214, MSY: Catch < 6 432 t Landings < 3 988 t, assuming discard rates stay at last 3-year average Technical measures to reduce discard rates in Nephrops(TR2) fleet MSY (F MSY ) Precautionary approach (F pa,f lim ) MSY (B trigger ) Precautionary approach (B pa,b lim ) F (Fishing Mortality) 21 211 212 Appropriate Harvested sustainably SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) 211 212 213 Above trigger Fully reproductive capacity F(ages 2-6) 1.2 1..8 Fishing Mortality.6 6 F decreasing since 2, and.4 4.2 2 below F MSY in recent years. 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 23 28 29 yc strong in relative terms SSB now above Bpa EU MP proposal (not formally agreed): evaluated by ICES and found precautionary Some connectivity with haddock in North Sea: benchmark for both stocks in 214 Fpa FMSY Recruitment in millions SSB in 1 t 6 5 4 3 2 1 12 1 8 Recruitment (age 1) 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 23 28 Spawning Stock Biomass Blim Bpa MSYBtrigger 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 23 28 213

Haddock in Division VIa (West of Scotland) Catch 212 ~ 5 6 t (discards: 1% in 212; 46% in 211) Nephropsfleet (TR2) produced ~7% of all discards while landing ~2% ofthe total landings F(213) = F(21 212) =.24; SSB (214) = 26 kt < MSY B trigger (3 kt) F MSY Rationale =.3 Basis Total catch (214) Landings (214) Discards (214) F Total (214) F landings (214) F Disc. (214) SSB (215) %SSB change MSY approach 6.432 3.988 2.444 F MSY SSB 214 /MSY B trigger.26.16.1 27.27 +3% 5% %TAC change Precautionary 4.158 2.578 1.58 SSB 215 >B pa (F 213.67).16.1.6 3.43 +14% 39% approach Proposal for Management plan 5.223 3.238 1.985 23% TAC (F 213.86).21.13.8 28.743 +9% 23% Zero catch... F =... 35.13 +33% 1% Other options 5.765 3.574 2.191 TAC 15%.23.14.9 28.82 +6% 15% (F 213.96) 6.791 4.21 2.581 Stable TAC.28.17.11 26.832 +2% % (F 213 1.156) 5.978 3.76 2.272 F 213.24.15.9 27.823 +5% 12% Weights in tonnes. 7.811 4.843 2.968 TAC +15% (F 213 1.36).33.2.13 25.592 3% +15% Main uncertainty in forecast is Rec(212-14): 57% of age 2 fish assumed mature Rec (212-14) assumed as GM(24-11) has high impact on forecast

Whiting in Division VIa (West of Scotland) Advice for 214, PA: Lowest possible catch Technical measures to reduce discards in Nephrops(TR2) fleet F (Fishing Mortality) 21 211 212 4 Recruitment (age 1) MSY (F MSY) Precautionary approach (F pa,f lim) MSY (B trigger) Precautionary approach (B pa,b lim) * Fishing mortality very low * SSB remains < B lim Unknown SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) Harvested sustainably 211 212 213 Unknown Reduced reproductive capacity F(ages 2-4) Fishing Mortality 1.2 Flim Fpa 1..8.6.4.2. 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 26 211 Recruitment in millions SSB in 1 t 3 2 1 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 26 211 Spawning Stock Biomass 14 Blim 12 Bpa 1 8 6 4 2 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 26 211 * Rec low in last decade; 29 yc relatively strong, 211 yc a bit above recent average Mainly taken as bycatch with species such as haddock, cod, anglerfish Very high discarding Catch (212) ~ 1 t (7% discarded) Approx 8% of all discards are from Nephrops(TR2) fleet

Whiting in Division VIa (West of Scotland) F(213) = Fsq (21-212 rescaled to 212) =.7; SSB (214) = 11 kt < B lim Rationale Weights in tonnes. (16 kt) Catch F F F Landings Discards Basis SSB Total Total Landings Discards (214) (214) (214) (214) (214) (214) (215) % SSB change Precautionary approach B pa 121 8.% Zero catch F = 121 8.% Other options 126 65 62 F 213.2.14.7.7 1194 6.6% 251 128 123 F 213.4.28.13.14 1178 5.2% 375 191 183 F 213.6.42.2.21 1163 3.8% 496 253 243 F 213.8.54.26.28 1148 2.5% 616 314 32 F 213 1..69.33.36 1133 1.2% 735 374 361 F 213 1.2.82.4.42 1118.2% SSB expected to remain below B lim in 215, even with no catch in 214 Precautionary approach: lowest possible catch Effective technical measures should be implemented to improve selection pattern and reduce discards in Nephrops(TR2) fleet

Whiting in Division VIb (Rockall) Advice for 214 and 215, DLS:Catch < 11 t Advice issued in 212 was biennial, valid for 213 and 214 Same catch is also applicable to 215 Stock category: 6 Only data are official landings Doubts on accuracy of landings data: vessels operate in VIa and VIb Precautionary buffer (2% reduction) applied in the advice issued in 212 and catches are marginal same catch advice also considered valid for 215

Anglerfish (L. piscatorius & L. budegassa) in IIIa, IV and VI Advice for 214, DLS: Catch < 1 231 t All catches assumed to be landed Management area should be consistent with assessment area Qualitative evaluation F (Fishing Mortality) 21 212 SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) 28 212 Qualitative evaluation Decreasing Insufficient information Benchmarked in 212 and 213 Age-based assessment attempted, not accepted: sensitivity to growth assumptions Advice: DLS (category 3), using anglerfish industry-science survey Trend in last 5 years: 22% decrease 1. Uncertainy window: 2% decrease 2. Precautionary margin: no, because significant effort decrease in main fisheries 2% catch decrease with respect to recent average (last 3 year average) Previous concerns about landings underreporting no longer considered an issue Recent landings data adequate for provision of catch advice

Megrim (Lepidorhombus spp.) in Div. IVa and VIa Advice for 214 and 215, MSY: Catch < 7 t in each year Landings < 5 95 t, assuming discard rates stay at last 3-year average F (Fishing Mortality) 21 211 212 MSY (F MSY ) Appropriate Precautionary approach (F pa,f lim ) Undefined MSY (B trigger ) Precautionary approach (B pa,b lim ) Catches in 1 t 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Biomass 211 212 213 Catches Above trigger Full reproductive capacity Discards Landings 1985 1991 1997 23 29 Assessment based on biomass dynamics model (no age or length data used) * F below F MSY, Biomass above MSY B trigger Catch (212) ~ 3 t (15% discards) 1.2 1 F/F MSY Fmsy 3 2.5 B/BMSY Blim MSYBtrigger F/Fmsy.8.6.4 B/Bmsy 2 1.5 1.2.5 1985 1991 1997 23 29 1985 1991 1997 23 29

Megrim in Divisions IVa and VIa F(213)/ F MSY = F(212)/ F MSY =.33, B(214)/B MSY = 1.41 Rationale Catch (214) Landings (214) Discards (214) Basis Fishing mortality (F 214 /F MSY ) Stock size (B 215 /B MSY ) Probability of Biomass 215 falling below Probability of Biomass 215 falling below B lim MSY B trigger MSY approach 7 595 15 F MSY (=.33) 1. 1.32 1% % Zero catch F = % % Other Long-term 676 5164 911 options MSY.86 1.42 1% % 6 51 9.36.85 1.41 1% % 5 425 75.21.65 1.53 1% % 4 34 6.16.48 1.59 1% % Current TAC areas inconsistent with the ICES stock and advisory area ICES advice (ICES, 213a) recommends that the management unit should match the assessment unit.

Megrim (Lepidorhombus spp) in VIb (Rockall) Advice for 214, DLS: Landings < 27 t Discards exist but cannot be quantified total catch can not be calculated Management area should be the same as the assessment area F (Fishing Mortality) 21 212 Qualitative evaluation Below poss. reference points SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) 28 212 Qualitative evaluation Increasing DLS (category 3), uses anglerfish-megrim industry-science survey index: Trend last 5 years: 52% increase 1. Uncertainty window: 2% increase 2. Precautionary margin: no, because harvest ratio very low (<5%) 2% catch increase in relation to recent average (last 3 year average)

Celtic Sea & West, Southwest Ireland Cod (VIIe-k) Haddock (VIIb-k) Whiting (VIIe-k) Plaice (CS; VIIh-k; VIIbc) Sole (CS; VIIh-k; VIIbc) Anglerfish (VIIb-k, VIIIabd) Megrim (VIIb-k, VIIIabd) Northern hake Pollack (VI, VII) Sea bass (IVbc, VIIa, VIId-h; VIa, VIIb, VIIj) Nephrops(FUs 16-17-2-22) in autumn

Cod in Divisions VIIe k (Celtic Sea cod) Advice for 214, MSY: Landings < 6 848 t Discards exist but cannot be quantified total catch can not be calculated MSY (F MSY ) Precautionary approach (F pa,f lim ) MSY (B trigger ) Precautionary approach (B pa,b lim ) F (Fishing Mortality) 21 211 212 At target * Fishing declined and is around F MSY in last 2 years * 29 yc very strong Undefined SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) 211 212 213 Above trigger Full reproductive capacity * Very strong SSB increase * highgrading significant in 211 (29 yc), before TAC was revised; now back to normal MP under development by the NWWRAC and STECF Landings in 1 t F(ages 2-5) 25 2 15 1 5 1.2 1..8.6.4.2 Landings 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 26 211 Fishing Mortality. 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 26 211 FMSY Recruitment in millions SSB in 1 t 3 25 2 15 1 5 3 25 2 15 1 5 Recruitment (age 1) 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 26 211 Spawning Stock Biomass Blim Bpa MSYBtrigger 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 26 211

Catch 212 ~ 8 6 t (discards 11%) Cod in Divisions VIIe k (Celtic Sea cod) F(213) = F(21-12)=.43; SSB(214)= 17 kt > MSY B trigger (1.3 kt) Rationale Landings (214) Basis F (214) SSB (215) %SSB change % TAC change MSY approach 6848 F MSY.4 1529 11% 33% Zero catch F = 22782 +32% 1% Other options 7211 F 213.43 14899 13% 29% 867 TAC 15% (F 213.8).54 13333 23% 15% 12 Stable TAC.67 1176 32% % 11726 TAC+15% (F 213 1.15).82 112 41% +15% Weights in tonnes Discards have been estimated for 211 and 212, but not considered sufficient to estimate a discard proportion that could be applied to give catch advice; therefore total catches cannot be calculated.

Haddock in Divisions VIIb k Advice for 214, MSY transition: Catch < 5 281 t Landings < 3 62 t, assuming discard rates stay at last 3-year average F (Fishing Mortality) 21 211 212 MSY (F MSY ) Above target Precautionary approach (F pa,f lim ) Undefined SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) 211 212 213 MSY (B trigger ) Above trigger Precautionary approach (B pa,b lim ) Undefined * Fishing mortality above F MSY * 29 yc exceptionally strong * Rec below average after 29, Rec in 212 lowest of time series * SSB increased until 211, followed by decrease * increased discarding in 21 (below MLS) and since 211 (over quota) * Discarding serious problem: in last 1 years, ~8% of catch in numbers discarded technical measures should be in place to reduce discards

Catch 212 ~ 28 7 t (discards 36%) Haddock in Divisions VIIb k Considerable uncertainty about estimated discards, but assessment results appear quite robust to this uncertainty F(213) = F(21-212) =.72; SSB(214) = 12 6 t > MSY B trigger (7 5 t) Rationale Catch (214) Land. (214) Disc. (214) Basis F Total (214) F land (214) F disc. (214) SSB (215) %SSB change MSY approach 4 521 3 98 1 423 F MSY =.33.33.28.5 2 218 +6% 78% MSY transition 5 281 3 62 1 679 (F 21.2) + (F MSY.8).39.34.6 19 398 +54% 75% %TAC change Zero catch F = 25 14 +99% 1% Other options F 213.8.57.49.9 17 329 +37% 66% 7 22 4 852 2 35 F 213.9.64.55.1 16 576 +31% 63% 7 97 5 3 2 67 F 213.72.61.11 15 863 +26% 6% 8 576 5 72 2 856 F 213 1.1.79.67.12 15 187 +2% 57% 21 385 12 26 9 359 15% TAC 3.99 3.39.59 3 77 76% 15% 13172 Stable TAC inf 15148 +15% TAC inf Predicted SSB(215) very uncertain: highly dependent on Rec assumption for 213

Whiting in Divisions VIIe k Advice for 214, MSY: Landings < 15 562 t Discards exist but cannot be quantified total catch can not be calculated * Fishing mortality declining and below F MSY in last 2 years * SSB increasing F (Fishing Mortality) 21 211 212 MSY (F MSY ) Appropriate Precautionary approach (F pa,f lim ) Undefined MSY (B trigger ) Precautionary approach (B pa,b lim ) SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) 211 212 213 Above trigger Full reproductive capacity * 27 and 28 yc above average, 211 and 212 yc lowest of time series * high discards, low market value (but discards not quantified) Landings in 1 t F(ages 2-5) * Discards not included in assessment (problematic, given high discards) 25 2 15 1 5 1.5 1..5 Landings 1982 1987 1992 1997 22 27 21 Fishing Mortality. 1982 1987 1992 1997 22 27 212 Benchmark in 214 FMSY Recruitment in millions SSB in 1 t 2 15 1 5 8 6 4 2 Recruitment (age ) 1982 1987 1992 1997 22 27 212 Spawning Stock Biomass Blim Bpa MSYBtrigger 1982 1987 1992 1997 22 27 212

Whiting in Divisions VIIe k Landings 212 ~ 1 t (discards unknown) F(213) = F(21-212) =.33; Landings(213) = 18 kt; SSB(214) = 49 kt > MSY B trigger (21 kt) Rationale Landings (214) Basis F landings (214) SSB (215) %SSB change MSY approach 15 562 F MSY.36 45 329 8% Precautionary approach 38 55 B pa 1.8 21 57% Zero catch F = 62 23 26% Other options 14618 F 213.33 46331 6% 16791 F 213 1.2.4 4427 11% Weights in tonnes 18 769 F 213 1.4.46 41 938 15% Additional technical measures introduced in 212 to reduce haddock and whiting discards in Celtic Seas

Plaice Celtic Sea (VIIf,g) Advice for 214, DLS: Catch < 1 68 t Landings < 519 t, assuming discard rates stay at last 3-year average Technical measures to reduce discard rates F (Fishing Mortality) 21 212 Qualitative evaluation Unknown SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) 28 212 Qualitative evaluation Increasing * Very high discards in recent years (mostly below MLS) * Catch (212) ~ 1 39 t (68% discards) * This year, advice based on Q3 E&W beam trawl survey, as indicator of SSB * Commercial LPUE, also used in previous assessment, show a long-time decrease. But not representative of stock abundance, due to high discards

Plaice Celtic Sea (VIIf,g) DLS (category 3): Survey trend in last 5 years: 5% increase 1. Uncertainty window: 2% increase 2. Precautionary margin: no, because of the large increase (5%) in biomass 2% catch increase in relation to recent average (last 3 year average) Result:Catch < 1 68 t If discard rates stay at last 3-year average: Landings < 519 t Survey also indicates an overall reduction of mortality over time Use of larger-mesh gear should be encouraged in this fishery where mixed fisheries issues allow for it

Plaice in Divisions VIIh-k (Southwest of Ireland) Advice for 214, DLS:Landings < 135 t Discards exist but cannot be quantified total catch can not be calculated Qualitative evaluation Qualitative evaluation F (Fishing Mortality) 21-212 SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) 28-212 Above possible reference points Increasing Landings in tonnes 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Landings 1993 1999 25 211 Relative Recruitment Relative Recruitment (age 4) 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. 1993 1999 25 211 * high discards (only quantified in 212) * Biological link between plaice in Div VIIh and VIIjk unclear needs investigation * Data from Div VIIh scarce Relative mean F (ages 4-6) Relative Fishing Mortality 2. 1.6 1.2.8.4. 1993 1999 25 211 Relative SSB Relative Spawning Stock Biomass 2. 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1..8.6.4.2. 1993 1999 25 211 * Exploratory assessment based only on commercial data from VIIjk: F stable since 28, but considered to be above potential reference points some increase in SSB in recent years

Plaice in Divisions VIIh-k (Southwest of Ireland) DLS (category 3): SSB trend, from assessment, in last 5 years: 33% increase 1. Uncertainty window: 2% increase 2. Precautionary margin: yes, because stock considered overexploited 2% increase, followed by 2% reduction in relation to recent average (last 3 years) Result applied to the landings from Div VII h-k:landings < 135 t Management should take into account that plaice is caught in a mixed fishery Plaice caught in spatially distinct areas: restricting effort inthose areas may be more effective than limiting landings Discards should be reduced. Use of larger-mesh gear could improve selection, but mixed fishery aspects should be taken into consideration

Plaice in Divisions VIIbc (West of Ireland) Advice for 214 and 215, DLS: Catch < 3 t Advice issued in 212 was biennial, valid for 213 and 214 Same catch is also applicable to 215 Stock category: 6 Only data are official landings Catches too low to support collection of necessary information for stock assessment Precautionary buffer (2% reduction) applied in the advice issued in 212 and catches are marginal same catch advice also considered valid for 215 Plaice TAC unit VIIbc is included in the list of the Joint statement by the Council and the Commission. 213 TAC likely to remain the same for 5 years.

Sole in Celtic Sea (VIIf,g) Advice for 214, MSY: Catch < 92 t Discards considered low all catches assumed to be landed MSY (F MSY ) Precautionary approach (F pa,f lim ) MSY (B trigger ) Precautionary approach (B pa,b lim ) F (Fishing Mortality) 21 211 212 Above target Increased risk SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) 211 212 213 Above trigger * SSB above MSY B trigger in last decade Landings in 1 t Full reproductive capacity F(ages 4-8) 2 1.5 1.5.7.6.5.4.3.2.1 Landings 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 26 211 Fishing Mortality Flim. 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 26 211 Fpa FMSY Recruitment in millions SSB in 1 t 2 15 1 5 Recruitment (age 1) 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 26 211 Spawning Stock Biomass Bpa 1 MSYBtrigger 8 6 4 2 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 26 211 * F around F MSY since 25, but increased in 212 * Rec fluctuates around average; 29 yc lowest in time series

Sole in Celtic Sea (VIIf,g) * Landings (212) ~ 1 1 t (mainly by beam trawlers; discards ~2-5%) Discards not included in assessment (not a problem, low) F(213) = F(21-212) =.34; Catch(213) = 986 t; SSB(214) = 33 t > MSY B trigger (22 t) F MSY =.31 Rationale Catches (214) Basis F(214) SSB(215) %SSB change % TAC change MSY approach 92 F MSY.31 3465 +5% 16% Precautionary approach 171 F pa.37 3316 +1% 3% Zero catch F =. 4377 +33% 1% Other options 935 TAC 15%.32 345 +5% 15% (F 213.92) 14 F 213.34 3382 +3% 9% 11 Stable TAC.38 3287 % % (F 213 1.11) 1265 TAC + 15% (F 213 1.29).45 3126 5% +15% Weights in tonnes

Sole in Divisions VIIh-k (Southwest of Ireland) Advice for 214, DLS: Catch < 252 t. All catches assumed to be landed Qualitative evaluation Qualitative evaluation F (Fishing Mortality) 21 212 Below possible reference points SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) 29 212 Increasing * Biological link between Div VIIh and VIIjk unclear * Exploratory assessment based on commercial data from Div VII jk. 1993 1999 25 211 DLS (category 3): SSB trend, from assessment, in last 5 years: 11% increase 1. Uncertainty window: 11% increase 2. Precautionary margin: no, because of significant reduction in F 11% increase (applied to last 3-year average landings) Result applied to the catch from Div VII h-k:catch < 252 t Landings in tonnes Relative mean F (ages 3-8) 1 8 6 4 2 2.8 2.4 2. 1.6 1.2.8.4 Landings 1993 1999 25 211 Relative Fishing Mortality Relative Recruitment Relative SSB Relative Recruitment (age 2) 2. 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1..8.6.4.2. 1993 1999 25 211 1.6 1.4 1.2 1..8.6.4.2 Relative Spawning Stock Biomass. 1993 1999 25 211 Benchmark in 214 (?)

Sole in Divisions VIIbc (West of Ireland) Advice for 214 and 215, DLS: Catch < 3 t Advice issued in 212 was biennial, valid for 213 and 214 Same catch is also applicable to 215 Stock category: 6 Only data are official landings Catches too low to support collection of necessary information for stock assessment Precautionary buffer (2% reduction) applied in the advice issued in 212 and catches are marginal same catch advice also considered valid for 215 Sole TAC unit VIIbc is included in the list of the Joint statement by the Council and the Commission. 213 TAC likely to remain the same for 5 years.

Anglerfish(Lophius piscatorius &L. budegassa) Div VIIb k and VIIIa,b,d Advice for 214, DLS: Landings < 37 45 t Discards exist but cannot be quantified total catch can not be calculated L. piscatorious & L. budegassa Qualitative evaluation Qualitative evaluation F (Fishing Mortality) 21 212 Insufficient information SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) 28 212 Increasing * Overall stock trend (from bottom trawl survey) stable or increasing * Increasing trend in last 5 years for both species * Landings (212) ~ 36 4 t (approx 75% L.piscatorius) * Indications that discarding of small fish increased in recent years, but no reliable discard estimates

Anglerfish(Lophius piscatorius &L. budegassa) Div VIIb k and VIIIa,b,d DLS (category 3): Biomass index from survey as stock indicator. Trend in last 5 years: 55% increase for L. piscatorius, 25% increase for L. budegassa 1. Uncertainty window: 2% increase 2. Precautionary margin: not applied, because steady effort decline in main fisheries 2% increase over recent average landings (last 3-year average) Result: Landings < 37 45 t

Megrim(Lepidorhombus whiffiagonis) Divisions VIIb k and VIIIa,b,d Advice for 214, DLS: New data (landings, discard, surveys) available do not change stock perception. Therefore, advice for 214 is the same as given for 213: Landings < 12 t Stock category: 3 Statistical catch-at-age model, that can consistently deal with heterogeneous and some missing data (mainly discards), developed in 212 benchmark. Used only as indicative of trends. Precautionary margin applied in the advice last year (because exploitation unknown and no indication of low or decreasing F from assessment results) This year: available data do not change stock perception, and same advice issued.

Hake Northern stock (IIIa, IV, VI, VII, VIIIabd) Advice for 214, MSY:Landings < 81 846t Some discards included in assessment, but total cannot be quantified total catch can not be calculated F (Fishing Mortality) 21 211 212 1 Landings 8 Recruitment (age ) MSY (F MSY ) Precautionary approach (F pa,f lim ) MSY (B trigger ) Precautionary approach (B pa,b lim ) Qualitative evaluation Appropriate Undefined SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) 211 212 213 Undefined Undefined Above poss. reference points Landings in 1 t 8 6 4 2 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 23 28 1.2 1. Fishing Mortality FMSY Recruitment in millions 6 4 2 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 23 28 * Very strong SSB increase and F decrease in recent years * Rapid growth and fast dynamics F(ages 15-8 cm).8.6.4.2. 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 23 28 * Important increase in landings in northern areas (IIIa, IV andvi) in recent years * Discards of juvenile hake substantial in some areas and fleets. Discard estimates incomplete (partially included in assessment) 214 * Some concern that the very strong SSB increase and F decrease not totally accurate, although surveys and fishery indicate strong SSB increase Benchmark in

Hake Northern stock Landings 212 ~ 75 t (discards ~ 16%, but underestimated and partially included in assessment) F (213) = F(21-12) =.24; landings (213) = 69 kt, SSB (214) = 27 kt Rationale Human consump. landings (214) Basis F Total (214) F HC (214) F Disc (214) Disc. (214) Catch Total (214) SSB (215) %SSB change %TAC change Weights in tonnes F MSY MSY approach 81.846 (F sq.99).24.2.4 2.265 84.111 333 +23% +49% Recovery plan 63.397 +15% TAC.18.15.3 1.733 65.129 352 3% 15% (F sq.745) Zero catch. F =..... 417 +55% 1% 9.195 F sq.1.2.2..243 9.438 48 +51% 83% 26.924 F Other options sq.3.7.6.1.719 27.644 39 +44% 51% 15% TAC 46.679.13.11.2 1.262 47.941 37 +37% 15% (F sq.535) 43.88 F sq.5.12.1.2 1.183 44.991 372 +38% 21% 55.145 Equal TAC (F sq.64).16.13.2 1.499 56.644 361 +34% +% 63.397 +15% TAC.18.15.3 1.733 65.129 352 3% 15% (F sq.745) 59.886 F sq.7.17.14.3 1.633 61.519 356 +32% +1% 75.197 F sq.9.22.19.3 2.71 77.268 34 +26% +36% 82.576 F sq 1.24.21.4 2.286 84.862 332 +23% +5% 96.84 F sq 1.2.29.25.4 2.77 99.511 318 +18% +76% Short-term projection influenced by the record high 212 Rec estimate

Pollack in Subareas VI and VII Advice for 214, DLS: Advice issued in 212 was biennial (for 213 and 214): Catch < 4 2t per year New data available do not change stock perception * Stock category: 4 * Advice based on official landings (almost all landings from Subarea VII) * DCAC (method that estimates a sustainable catch) applied to Subareas VI and VII separately * More information would be needed to conduct an assessment: stock identity, detail of fisheries, biological information, recreational fisheries * Pollack TAC Unit Vb (EU waters), VI, XII and XIV is included in the list of Joint statement by the Council and the Commission. 213 TAC likely to remain the same for 5 years.

Sea bass in IVbc, VIIa and VIId-h Advice for 214, DLS: Commercial landings < 2 77 t Discards exist, but not quantified; Recreational catch not quantified total catch can not be calculated Qualitative evaluation Qualitative evaluation F (Fishing Mortality) 21 212 Above possible reference points SSB (Spawning Stock Biomass) 28 212 Decreasing Commercial landingsin 1 t Commercial landings 5 4 3 2 1 1985 1991 1997 23 29 Relative recruitment Recruitment (age ) 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. 1985 1991 1997 23 29 Before this year: advice for sea bass in Northeast Atlantic Benchmark autumn 212: 4 stocks considered Relative F (ages 5-11) Relative Fishing Mortality 3 2.5 2 1.5 1.5 1985 1991 1997 23 29 Relative Biomass Relative Stock Biomass 1.6 1.2.8.4. 1985 1991 1997 23 29 Slow growth, late maturation, spawning aggregation, site fidelity vulnerable to exploitation and local depletion Discarding low in most fisheries (not included in assessment) Important recreational species (could be up to 2% of total stock removals) Surveys used in assessment terminated in 29 and 211

Assessment indicative of trends DLS (category 3): Sea bass in IVbc, VIIa and VIId-h Biomass from survey as stock indicator. Trend in last 5 years: 32% decrease 1. Uncertainty window: 2% decrease 2. Precautionary margin: yes, because stock considered overexploited (exploratory analysis indicates F above possible F MSY proxy) 2% decrease, followed by another 2% decrease: applied to recent average commercial landings (last 3-year average) Result: Commercial landings < 2 77 t Improvement of fishery selection pattern needed (to allow more fish to spawn at least once before capture) would require changes to gear design and spatial management measures that do not incite discarding

Sea bass in VIa, VIIb and VIIj (West of Scotland and Ireland) Advice for 214, DLS: Commercial landings < 18 t No information on discards; Recreational catch not quantified total catch can not be calculated Not clear whether this should constitute a separate management unit ICES does not necessarily advocate the introduction of a TAC forsea bass in this area Qualitative evaluation F (Fishing Mortality) 21 212 Insufficient information Qualitative evaluation SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) 211 213 Insufficient information Only official landings available Important recreational species (data needed) Not clear that it constitutes a different stock Stock category: 6 In the absence of representative data for assessment: advice based on 2% precautionary reduction over recent (last 3 year average) commercial landings

Channel (Divisions VII d and e) Cod (IV, VIId, Skagerrak) Plaice (VIId) Plaice (VIIe) Sole (VIId) Sole (VIIe)

Cod in Subarea IV and Divisions VIId and IIIa West Advice for 214, EU/Norway MP: Landings < 28 89 t Catch < 37 57 t, assuming discard rates as in 212 MSY (F MSY ) Precautionary approach (F pa,f lim ) Management plan (F MP ) MSY (B trigger ) Precautionary approach (B pa,b lim ) Management plan (SSB MP ) F (Fishing Mortality) 21 211 212 Above target Harvested sustainably Below target SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) 211 212 213 Below trigger Increased risk Below trigger * Gradual improvement in last years, SSB now around B lim Landings in 1 t F (ages 2-4) 4 3 2 1 1.2 1.8.6.4.2 Total removals Fishing Mortality Unaccounted Discards Landings 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 23 28 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 23 28 Fmsy Fpa Flim Recruitment in millions SSB in 1 t 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Recruitment (age 1) 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 23 28 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Spawning Stock Biomass Bpa MSY Btrigger Blim 1963 1968 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 23 28 213 * F declining since 2, now between F pa and F MSY * Rec poor for over a decade * Discard rates declining from highest on record (in 27; 48% in weight) to just above historical average in 211 and 212 (24% in weight) * Catch data quality improved since 26; unaccounted removals no longer estimated from 26

Cod in Subarea IV and Divisions VIId and IIIa West F (213)=F(212)=.39; Landings(213) = 41 kt, SSB(214) = 88 kt(between B lim and B pa ) Rationale Catch Landings Discards Basis F total F land F disc SSB %SSB %TAC (214) (214) (214) (214) (214) (214) (215) Change Change Management Long-term 37.496 28.89 8.687 plan phase.21.15.6 127.392 +45% 9% MSY approach 21.14 16.187 4.827 F MSY SSB 214 /B trigger.11.8.3 141.15 +61% 49% MSY Transition 36.57 28.57 8.45 transition rule.2.14.6 128.251 +46% 12% Precautionary approach 1.64 7.781 2.283 SSB 215 = B pa.5.4.1 15. +71% 76% Zero catch F = 158.364 +8% 1% Other options 34.672 26.664 8.8 F MSY.19.13.6 129.84 +48% 16% 32.988 25.382 7.66 TAC 213 2%.18.13.5 131.145 +49% 2% 41.449 31.81 9.648 Constant TAC.23.16.7 124.147 +41% % 49.722 38.88 11.634 TAC 213 + 2%.28.2.8 117.281 +34% +2% 65.739 5.227 15.512 F 213.39.28.11 14.192 +19% +58% Mixed fisheries options minor differences with calculation above can occur due to different methodology used Maximum 96.751 78.729 18.22 A.75 - - 65.54 26% +247% Minimum 33.126 27.332 5.794 B.2 - - 116.68 +33% 14% Cod MP 33.413 27.567 5.846 C.2 - - 116.438 +33% 13% SQ effort 6.828 49.924 1.93 D.41 - - 93.639 +7% +57% Effort_Mgt 29.314 29.314 6.229 E.22 - - 114.641 +31% 8% Mixed fisheries options presented in advice since 212: Cod limiting species in North Sea in 214. Maximum scenario leads to F for cod above F pa (not precautionary)

Plaice in Division VIId (Eastern Channel) Advice for 214, DLS: Plaice landings in VIId < 3 925 t; reduce discards Discards high, but cannot be quantified total catch can not be calculated F (Fishing Mortality) 21-212 Qualitative evaluation Among the lowest in time series SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) 29-213 Qualitative evaluation Increasing * F declined since mid 199s, now among lowest (but still almost twice F MSY ) F(ages 3-6) 2. 1.5 1..5 Fishing Mortality SSB 1 8 6 4 2 Spawning Stock Biomass * SSB increasing. 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 * Discards substantial (up to 5% in number; 8 mm mesh does notmatch MLS of plaice) * Discards not included in assessment only indicative of trends * Stock category: 2

Plaice in Division VIId (Eastern Channel) Landings in VIId, 212 ~ 3 6 t (discards high, but not quantified) For category 2, advice based on a short-term projection aimed at reaching an F MSY proxy by 215. Uncertainy window (±2% change limit) applied to the result. F(213)=.29 (based on TAC constraint, and assumed proportion oftac caught in VIId); Landings(213) ~ 3 t Rationale Landings all plaice in VIId (214) Landings VIId plaice stock (214) Basis F landings (214) %SSB index change 214-215 MSY transition 3925 316 (F 21 *.2)+(F MSY *.8).28 + 18% Mixed fisheries options: minor differences with calculation above can occur due to different methodology used Maximum 5996 468 A.33-3% Minimum 228 1697 B.11 +28% Cod_ MP 2213 171 C.11 +28% SQ effort 4127 3171 D.21 +12 Effort_Mgt 339 265 E.17 +18 Plaice from North Sea and VIIe are present in VIId in Quarter 1.Assessment and advice for all 3 stocks takes account of this. Landings of plaice in VIId: 3 925 t, within 2% of last 3-year average Stock included in North Sea mixed fisheries analysis for first time this year

Plaice in Division VIIe (Western Channel) Advice for 214, MSY transition: Plaice landings in VIIe < 1 397 t Discards exist but cannot be quantified total catch can not be calculated MSY (F MSY ) F (Fishing Mortality) 21 211 212 Above target Precautionary approach (F pa,f lim ) Undefined MSY (B trigger ) SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) 211 212 213 Above trigger Precautionary approach (B pa,b lim ) Undefined Landings in 1 t 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1.5 1. Landings 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 Fishing Mortality FMSY Recruitment in millions 2 15 1 5 6 Recruitment (age 1) 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 Spawning Stock Biomass MSYBtrigger * F decreasing, above F MSY * SSB increasing F(ages 3-6).8.6.4.2. 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 SSB in 1 t 5 4 3 2 1 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 * Rec 29-211 above average * Discards not in assessment, but lower than for other plaice stocks * Landings in VIIe, 212 ~ 1 36 t (discards not quantified)

Plaice in Division VIIe (Western Channel) * Plaice stock identity uncertainties (migration at spawning time between VIIe and VIId): accounted for in assessments and forecasts of both divisions F(213)=F(21-12) scaled to F(212) =.4; SSB(214) = 4 6 t > MSY B trigger (1 65 t) Landings plaice in Rationale Basis F(214) SSB(215) %SSB change VIIe (214) MSY approach 1148 F MSY (F 213.6).24 5467 +18% MSY transition 1397 (.2 F 21 +.8 F MSY ) = F 213.73.29 5227 +13% Zero catch F =. 6778 Other options 948 F 213.5.2 5663 1148 F 213.6.24 5467 1341 F 213.7.28 5278 1526 F 213.8.32 596 174 F 213.9.36 4922 1875 F 213 1..4 4755 24 F 213 1.1.44 4594 Weights in tonnes +47% +23% +18% +14% +1% +7% +3% 1% TAC is for VIId,e

Sole VIId Eastern Channel Advice for 214, MSY transition: Catch < 3 251 t All catch assumed to be landed MSY (F MSY ) Precautionary approach (F pa,f lim ) MSY (B trigger ) Precautionary approach (B pa,b lim ) F (Fishing Mortality) 21 211 212 Above target Increased risk SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) 211 212 213 Above trigger Full reproductive capacity Landings in 1 t 6 5 4 3 2 1 Landings 1982 1987 1992 1997 22 27 212.7.6 Fishing Mortality Recruitment in millions 5 4 3 2 1 Recruitment (age 1) 1982 1987 1992 1997 22 27 212 14 12 Spawning Stock Biomass * SSB, Rec and F fluctuating without trend F(ages 3-8).5.4.3.2 Flim.1 Fpa FMSY. 1982 1987 1992 1997 22 27 212 SSB in 1 t 1 8 6 4 2 Bpa MSYBtrigger 1982 1987 1992 1997 22 27 212 * SSB above MSY B trigger * F above F pa and F MSY * Landings (212) ~ 4 t (discards considered to be < 5%) High discards of plaice below MLS

Sole in Division VIId (Eastern Channel) F(213) = F(21-12) =.46; Catch(213) = 4 75 t; SSB(214) = 1 2 t > MSY B trigger (8 t) Rationale Catches(214) Basis F(214) SSB(215) %SSB change %TAC Change MSY transition 3251 (F 21 *.2)+(F MSY *.8).33 1951 +8% -45% Precautionary approach 383 F pa.4 1389 +2% -36% Zero catch F=. 1429 +4% -1% 2894 F MSY.29 11319 +11% -51% 4264 F 213.46 9918-3% -28% Other options 515 TAC -15% (F 213 *1.23).57 9151-1% -15% 59 Stable TAC (F 213 *1.53).71 8249-19% % 6785 TAC +15% (F 213 *1.88).87 7349-28% 15% Mixed fisheries options minor differences with calculation above can occur due to different methodology used Maximum 5858 A.7 8271-19% -1% Minimum 2359 B.23 11852 + 16% -6% Cod_ MP 2365 C.23 11845 + 16% -6% SQ effort 4266 D.46 9897 + 3% -28% Effort_Mgt 3873 E.41 1299 + 1% -34% Weights in tonnes Stock included in North Sea mixed fisheries analysis for first time this year Maximum, Status-quo effort and Effort management scenarios lead to F for sole above F pa (not precautionary)

Advice for 214, MSY: Catch < 832 t All catch assumed landed Sole VIIe Western Channel MSY (F MSY ) F (Fishing Mortality) 21 211 212 Appropriate Precautionary approach (F pa,f lim ) Undefined MSY (B trigger ) Precautionary approach (B pa,b lim ) SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) 211 212 213 Above trigger Full reproductive capacity * No trends in recruitment 21 and 211 yc below average Landings in 1 t F(ages 3-9) 2 1.5 1.5 Landings 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 24 29 Fishing Mortality FMSY.5.4.3.2.1. 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 24 29 Recruitment in millions SSB in 1 t 1 8 6 4 2 Recruitment (age 1) 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 24 29 Spawning Stock Biomass Blim 6 Bpa 5 MSYBtrigger 4 3 2 1 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 24 29 * SSB stable for about 2 decades, above MSY B trigger * F below F MSY since 29 Landings (212) ~ 871 t (discards low)

Sole in Division VIIe (Western Channel) F(213)= F(21-12) scaled to F(212)=.25; Landings(213)=87 t; SSB(214)= 31 t > MSY B trigger (2 8 t) Rationale Catch (214) Basis F total SSB %SSB %TAC (214) (215) Change Change MSY approach 832 F MSY.27 2894 8% 7% Management Plan 832 F MP target.27 2894 8% 7% Zero catch F = 3713 +19% 1% Other options 764 TAC 213 15%.24 2961 5% 15% 128 TAC 213 + 15%.35 271 14% +15% 483 F 213.6.15 3237 +3% 46% 628 F 213.8.2 393 1% 3% 898 F 213 1.2.3 2829 1% % 123 F 213 1.4.35 276 14% 114% Weights in tonnes * Management plan has target F =.27 with 15% TAC constraint ICES has not evaluated management plan

Irish Sea (VIIa) Cod Haddock Whiting Plaice Sole Nephrops(FUs 14-15-19) in autumn

Cod in Division VIIa (Irish Sea) Advice for 214, MSY: Advice issued in 212 was biennial (for 213 and 214): No directed fisheries; bycatch and discards minimised Assessment method: age-based analytical Model estimates of total removals around 2-3 times the reported landings, despite more accurate catch reporting Causes for discrepancy unclear Tagging studies indicate only limited movement of cod out of Division VIIa Discard estimates not integrated in assessment due to the short time-series New assessment method adopted at 212 benchmark has not changed stock perception, but indicates declining mortality rates

Haddock in Division VIIa (Irish Sea) Advice for 214, DLS: Catch < 1 12 t Landings < 572 t, assuming discard rates stay at last 3-year average further technical measures to reduce discards MSY (F MSY ) Precautionary approach (F pa, F lim ) F (Fishing Mortality) 21 212 Unknown Unknown SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) 29 213 Qualitative evaluation Increasing Benchmarked in 213: Catches in tonnes Relative mean Z 6 5 4 3 2 1 1.4 1.2 1.8.6 Catches Discards Landings 1992 1998 24 21 RelativeTotal Mortality (Z) Relative recruitment Relative SSB 3 2.5 2 1.5 1.5 Relative Recruitment (age 1) 1992 1998 24 21 2 Relative Spawning Stock Biomass 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.8.6.4.2 1992 1998 24 21.4 Assessment method unchanged.2 historical landings revised 1992 1998 24 21 discards data for 21-12 This brings some differences to the advice this year when compared to last year * Assessment: survey-based, only indicative of trends * Stock category: 3. Uses SSB from assessment as indicator: Trend in last 5 years: 17% increase 1. Uncertainy window: 17% increase 2. Precautionary margin: No, because effort reduction in main fisheries

Whiting in Division VIIa (Irish Sea) Advice for 214, precautionary considerations: Advice issued in 212 was biennial (for 213 and 214): lowest possible catch; technical measures to reduce discards Assessment method: survey-based, only indicative of trends Survey data consistent indicate high total mortality and low stock size Discard estimates since 27 show that more than 1 t of whiting discarded annually, with ~5 t of landings. Majority of discards below MLS

Plaice in Division VIIa (Irish Sea) Advice for 214, DLS: Catch < 1 827 t Landings < 497 t, assuming discard rates stay at last 3-year average F (Fishing Mortality) 21 212 Qualitative evaluation Below poss. reference points SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) 28 212 Qualitative evaluation Above poss. reference points * Assessment only indicative of trends * Stock category: 3. SSB from assessment as stock indicator Trend in last 5 years: 1% increase 1. Uncertainy window: 1% increase 2. Precautionary margin: No, because recent F likely very low (Catch/SSB ~ 15% in recent years) Result: 1% increase, applied to average catch of last 3 years Benchmark in 214

Sole in Division VIIa (Irish Sea) Advice for 214, MSY: No directed fisheries; bycatch and discards should be minimised MSY (F MSY ) Precautionary approach (F pa,f lim ) MSY (B trigger ) Precautionary approach (B pa,b lim ) In last decade: F (Fishing Mortality) 21 211 212 Above target Increased risk SSB (Spawning-Stock Biomass) 211 212 213 Below trigger Reduced reproductive capacity * SSB declined continuously and is now at historic minimum Landings in 1 t F(ages 4-7) 3 2.5 2 1.5 1.5 1..8.6.4.2 Landings 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 Fishing Mortality. 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 Flim Fpa FMSY Recruitment in millions SSB in 1 t 3 25 2 15 1 5 8 6 4 2 Recruitment (age 2) 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 Spawning Stock Biomass Blim Bpa MSYBtrigger 197 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 * F stable around F pa * Recruitment lower than previously; Rec in 211 and 212 lowest in time series

* Landings 212 ~ 29 t (discards ~ 5%) Sole in Division VIIa (Irish Sea) * Discards not included in assessment (not considered problematic) F(213)=.16 (TAC constraint); Catch(213)=14 t ; SSB(214) = 148 t < B lim (2 2 t ) F MSY =.16 Rationale Catches (214) Basis F(214) SSB(215) Weights in tonnes Even with no catch in 214, the stock will remain well below B lim in 215 Given very low SSB and Rec in recent years catch advice = %SSB change %TAC Change MSY approach 52 F HCR MSY = F MSY SSB (214) /MSY B trigger.5 1278 +22% 62% MSY transition 95.2 F (21) +.8 F HCR MSY.1 1237 +18% 32% Precautionary approach SSB 215 >B pa 1328 +27% 1% Zero catch F = 1328 +27% 1% Other options 15 TAC 25% (F 213.69).11 1228 +17% 25% 119 TAC 15% (F 213.78).13 1215 +16% 15% 14 Stable TAC.15 1196 +14% % 147 F 213.16 1189 +13% +5% 161 TAC + 15% (F 213 1.8).18 1176 +12% +15%

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