28 January 2011 Lessons to be learnt from Mekong River for Asia Gary Kleyn FDI Research Manager Global Food and Water Crises Research Programme Summary South East Asia will face increasing problems as a result of the competing interests for water resources over the coming 50 years. While climate change may play a part, a more immediate and significant effect will be the development of dams along major river sources that cross national boundaries. Analysis This is particularly true of the Mekong River, which is a major water, food and energy source for China and South East Asia. China has already built four dams along the Mekong and has plans for an additional four, while further downstream an additional 12 dams are currently proposed by Cambodia, Laos and Thailand. The dams are useful in capturing water supply for agriculture and industry, as well as providing a significant component of the region s energy supply. However, on the flip side, they will also damage the fish stocks found in the river. This will have important ramifications, as fish is a significant component of the diet of those who live within the Mekong River region. This is due largely to the proximity of the population to the fish resources. In Thailand, for example, fish consumption is three times greater than chicken consumption. As competition for water use rises in the region, it will have a significant impact on fish stocks, in addition to the ability of countries in the region to supply rice, the staple food for local populations. The Mekong River system is said the be the largest inland fishery in the world with up to 2.6 million tonnes of fish and other aquatic resources harvested each year. This has a value of up to US$9 billion per year including secondary industries such as fish processing, Page 1
transportation and marketing. 1 The fishing industry employs millions of people that depend on the Mekong for their livelihood. While the population of the region is likely to be curtailed by sharply declining fertility rates, to levels not unlike those found in more developed countries, the expectation remains that, by 2025, the population in the Mekong region will increase between 30 and 50 per cent to increase from 60 million to 100 million people. The presence of dams on the Mekong River is already threatening the fish stocks, which are dependent on the ability to migrate in order to reproduce. An estimated 87 per cent of known Mekong fish species migrate as part of their natural reproductive cycle. 2 A report by International Rivers, an organisation that is campaigning against dam building, shows that between 700,000 and 1.6 million tonnes of Mekong fish - up to 62 per cent of the total Mekong catch - is at risk as a result of proposed dams. 3 Fishing remains a considerable component of the economic activity of South East Asia. It accounts for 8 per cent of Laos GDP and 16 per cent of Cambodia s GDP. Fish consumption in the region is two times the average total fish consumption and 18 times the freshwater fish consumption of Europe and North America. The average person in the Lower Mekong Basin eats more than 56 kilograms of fish products per year. 4 Fish food is fundamental to the health and nutrition of the region. It is an important component in seeking to meet the health aspirations of the region as expressed in the Millennium Development Goals. Fish provides protein, calcium, iron, vitamin A, zinc and iodine. A report released in October 2010 by the Mekong River Commission that was prepared by International Centre for Environmental Management Australia estimated that, if the 12 dams planned for the Mekong, south of the Chinese border were to go ahead, the losses in fisheries could be as high as $US476 million per year, excluding effects on the coastal and delta fisheries. The losses of fisheries would mean that up to 30 per cent of the national protein supply would be at risk in countries such as Cambodia and Laos. 5 A saving grace could potentially rest with the changing dietary aspirations of the communities that border the Mekong and other river systems in South East Asia. Assuming the incomes of the communities rises, particularly if they move from rural regions to urban areas, they will be in a better position to purchase coveted red meat. For strategists in the agricultural and trade sector that are considering food security in the region, this development will need to be closely monitored. 1 Peterson B, & Middleton, C., Feeding Southeast Asia: Mekong River Fisheries and Regional Food Security, International Rivers, 2010. 2 Ibid, p10 3 Ibid 4 Ibid, p5 5 ICEM, SEA of Hydropower on the Mekong Mainstream, Final Report, October 2010, Mekong River Commission
Red meat will need to come chiefly from outside the region from places such as Australia, Brazil and the United States because of several obstacles to expanding home grown meat production. Substitution of fish income by moving into beef farming may be possible for some in the Mekong River region but this could give rise to more land disputes. Problems between communities could develop if fishing communities look landwards at agricultural land for their livelihood. Damming rivers such as the Mekong also reduces the amount of land available for agriculture. Around 135,000 hectares would be inundated by the 11 projects, which include land taken for transmission lines and access roads, according to a report released in October 2010 by the Mekong River Commission. Growing red meat also demands considerable food and water resources. It takes around 500 litres of water to produce a kilogram of meat while it takes approximately 10 calories of wheat to produce one calorie of meat. Hence, it may be prudent for governments in the region to discourage the expansion of the meat industry and instead opt for importing the meat. Substituting the fish for red meat will place extra pressure on shipping lanes, ports and interior transport corridors. The Mekong River Commission report decided to take a cautionary approach to the development of dams. It recommended that plans to build dams on the Mekong should be deferred. Until now, no dams exist on the Mekong once the river flows out of China. The effect could be that more of the rural poor will move toward urban areas, further exacerbating the pressure on urban areas which are already dealing with a continuing population influx. Forward estimates of urban populations in the region need to consider this extra pressure that stems from the loss of livelihood for fishing and agricultural communities that will come with the presence of more dams. The official forward estimates to 2050 produced by the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division fails to reflect the effects of damming rivers such as the Mekong, let alone the impact of any climate change. 6 The United Nations, or those countries that are considering damming the Mekong, also appear to have ignored the cross border migration pressures that will result from dams and climate change. Communities may want to move further along the river into other countries to find new economic opportunities. 6 See World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision, United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division.
Existing and proposed dams along the Mekong River Source: SEA of Hydropower on the Mekong Mainstream, October 2010, Mekong River Commission Food security in the region is expected to be increasingly threatened, especially when combined with the potential effects of climate change. The Mekong River Commission report indicates that climate change is likely to see agricultural productivity increase in the basin to around 3.6 per cent by 2030, yet food security is still expected to decrease. Climate change may lead to increased flooded areas and nutrient loadings. It may also lead, however, to a decrease in fish biodiversity and stability. In the first summit held in April 2010 by the Mekong River Commission, the overarching concern was climate change and what challenges this may present for the region. Future Directions International director John Hartley believes that there is a general sense that the Mekong River Basin is particularly vulnerable to climate change. He writes in the FDI Strategic Weekly Analysis of 6 April 2010 that, In part this is because a large and growing proportion of its population lives in risk prone areas where their subsistence lifestyle is unlikely to attract sufficient funding for mitigation purposes. Although the impact and extent of climate change is yet to be determined, there is little doubt that rainfall pattern changes will affect river flow and make drought and flood more likely. Rising sea levels are also likely to impact on agriculture in the Delta. 7 These pressures may increase the likelihood of conflict between Mekong Basin States, with countries upstream able to exert their influence over downstream countries. The International Institute of Strategic Studies identified the Mekong River Basin Region as one of eight areas in Asia that hold the potential to develop into inter-state conflict. 8 7 Hartley, J,. The Mekong River Commission holds its First Summit, Strategic Weekly Analysis, Future Directions International, 6 April 2010, p.5 8 Kleyn, G., Water Crises International Areas at Risk, Future Directions International, Perth, Australia, 16 March 2010, p.5.
Future Directions International, 2010 Desborough House, Suite 2, 1161 Hay Street, West Perth, WA 6005, Australia Tel: +61 (0)8 9486 1046 Fax: +61 (0)8 9486 4000 Email Gary Kleyn: gkleyn@futuredirections.org.au Web: www.futuredirections.org.au