Recent Trends in Organic Tree Fruit Production: 2001 David Granatstein Center for Sustaining Agriculture and Natural Resources, Wenatchee, WA Organic pears near Chelan, WA www.tfrec.wsu.edu Organic & Integrated
Which half of the world will starve if we switch to organic farming? Earl Butz, former US Secretary of Agriculture
Encouraging Trends Consumer trends around wellness Increased organic food sales and availability More public interest in food system, ecosystem services, role of ag in society More public and private support for organic farming More regulatory certainty (USDA National Organic Standard) Organic = GMO free
Organic food sales in the US US Organic Food Sales (billion $) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Source: Organic Trade Association
Segments of total population by environmental attitude (%) 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 TN NGM AH YR OV UC TN = True Naturals AH = Alternative Healers OV = Overwhelmed UC = Unconcerned NGM = New Green YR = Young Recyclers Mainstream (Hartman, 1996)
Concerns More tree fruit growers and acres, domestic and foreign - More supply than demand right now? Industrial organic More scrutiny and criticism of organic Convergence of conventional and organic on the farm
Estimated World Organic Apple and Pear Acreage - 2001 Certified Acres Apple Pear U.S. 17,572 2,798 Canada 800 60 Europe* 8,675 3,665 South America 1,385 932 New Zealand 2,873 163 Total 31,005 7,618 China?? *Europe data from 2000
U.S. Organic Tree Fruit Acreage - 2001 Apple Pear Cherry All fruit WA 6540 1308 303 8436 CA 4529 842 179 8662 AZ 2800 -- 30 2830 CO 1535 100 133 1923 ID 503 -- -- 506 OR 350 500 25 1180 Others 1015 48 57 1198 Total US 17,272 2798 727 24,735 WA trans. 3411 642 280 4408
Organic Tree Fruit Acreage in WA - 2001 Cert. Trans. Total Apples 6540 3411 9951 Pears 1308 642 1950 Cherries 303 280 583 Apricots 49 4 53 Peaches 126 31 157 Nectarines 57 26 84 Plums 54 14 68 Total 8436 4408 12844
Organic Apple Acreage in Washington State Acres 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Alar Pheromone MD 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Certified Transitional
Organic Pear and Stone Fruit Acreage in Washington State 1500 1250 1000 750 500 250 0 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Pear Stonefruit
Organic Pear Acreage in Washington State 1400 1200 1000 Acres 800 600 400 200 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 Certified Transitional
Organic Cherry Acreage in Washington State Acres 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 Certified Transitional
Annual Changes in Organic Apple Acreage Washington State 2500 2000 1500 Acres 1000 500 0-500 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Organic Orchard Acreage as a Percent of Total Washington Orchards Apple Pear 1996 0.68 1.49 1997 0.96 1.68 1998 1.05 1.84 1999 1.36 1.87 2000 2.48 2.54 2001 3.90 5.27 2001 (C+T) 5.92 7.86 Based on USDA-National Agricultural Statistics for bearing acreage
California Organic Tree Fruit Trends Acres 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 * Apple Pear Stonefruit * Data source changed to CDFA
WA Organic Apple Acreage by Variety 2001 Red Delicious Granny Smith Gala Golden Delicious Fuji Other Braeburn Cameo Pink Lady Golden Types 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 Certified Transitional
WA Organic Red Delicious Acreage 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 Certified Transitional
WA Organic Pear Acreage by Variety 2001 Anjou Bosc Bartlett Asian Red Anjou Red Bartlett Concord Other 0 200 400 600 800 1000 Certified Transitional
WA Organic Apple Prices ($ per box FOB) $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Red Delicious Golden Delicious Granny Smith Fuji Gala 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Source: Washington Growers Clearinghouse
WA Organic Apple Prices ($ per box FOB) $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Braeburn Jonagold Red Rome Cameo Pink Lady 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Source: Washington Growers Clearinghouse
Price Trends Red Delicious $/box FOB $30 $20 $10 $0 Org Org Conv 1995 1996 1997 1998 Conv 1999 2000 2001 organic conventional $40 Golden Delicious $/box FOB $30 $20 $10 $0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 organic conventional
Price Trends Granny Smith $/box FOB $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Price $/box FOB $35.00 $30.00 $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 Org Conv $5.00 $0.00 1995 1996 1997 1998 2000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 organic conventional Braeburn $/box FOB $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Price $/box FOB $45.00 $40.00 $35.00 $30.00 $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $0.00 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 organic conventional
Price Trends Fuji $/box FOB $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 Price $/box FOB $35.00 $30.00 $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 Org Conv Org Conv $10.00 $5.00 1995$0.001996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 organic conventional $40 Gala $/box FOB $30 $20 $10 $0 Price $/box FOB $35.00 $30.00 $25.00 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $0.00 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 organic conventional
WA Organic Pear Prices ($/box FOB) $55 $45 $35 $25 $15 Bartlett Red Bartlett D'Anjou Bosc 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Source: Washington Growers Clearinghouse
Price Trends Bartlett $/box FOB $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 organic conventional D Anjou $/box FOB $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 organic conventional
Price Trends Bosc $/box FOB $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 organic conventional
Organic Tree Fruit Research Needs Semi-arid regions (western North America, Argentina) weed control, insect pests, fruit thinning, fertility, replant disease Humid regions (Michigan, NY, Europe) scab, insect pests, weed control, fruit thinning, fertility
Research Response in PNW Pheromone mating disruption for codling moth New biorational pest control tools (Spinosad, kaolin, oils, repellents) Mulching systems for weed control Cover crops Biocontrol of replant disease Compost, soil quality Natural thinners Organic tree fruit statistics
Looking Ahead Organic: is on the leading edge of sustainable agriculture; not the endpoint. doesn t guarantee no spray, no chemicals, no residues, no synthetics, tastier, healthier, family farm, local. cannot remain static and must continually improve.
Keep Your Eye on the Consumer More interest in food and farm attributes outside the organic rule (labor, wildlife, food miles, energy ). Beyond Organic or Organic Plus Organic fruit and wellness apples and antioxidants. Pre-sliced organic apples as a snack food alternative? Taste, face and place. Where is there more consumer loyalty local, fresh, non-organic vs. imported organic Chilean fruit?
Take care of the soil and it will take care of you.